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I remember it like it was yesterday. We had just finished Week 4 of the NFL season. By that point, we were all basking in the warm glow of Sam Darnold being QB5 on the season, averaging an amazing 24.44 fantasy points per game. All of the Darnold truthers up in Noo Yawk, of which there are tens, were rejoicing in their prognostications that “ALL HEEZ NEEDS TO DO IS MOVE ON FROM THAT BUM ADAM GASE!”

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Being a Buffalo Bills fan means you already have certain trigger words that cause severe mental anguish. Even the slightest mention of the words “wide right” is enough to make a Bills fan crash into the nearest folding table. If that wasn’t enough, after the 2022 playoffs you might as well add “13 seconds” and “squib kick” to the list of no-no, naughty words for Buffalonians. Then, of course, the Cincinnati Bengals had to go and rub it in during the AFC Championship Game against the Chiefs. 

The Bills’ exit from the playoffs was equal parts exciting and heartbreaking. But their late-season offensive surge that continued into the playoffs taught us some valuable lessons as we ponder the 2022 fantasy football season. Who are we buying and selling on the Bills for next season? Why not start with a guy who had a performance never before seen in a playoff game. 

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I want to take you back about six months or so and give you $1,000 to bet on a few teams to make the NFL playoffs. I want you to bet on the sure things. Just some easy money for future you to enjoy.

On September 1, the Chiefs, Bills, and Bucs were all heavy favorites to make the postseason (and, surprise!, they did). Those teams were all greater than -400 to play past Week 18 and met expectations for those betting on their futures. But there was one more team that looked like a lock for the postseason based on their odds: The Baltimore Ravens.

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A lot of things, and I mean A LOT of things, went wrong for the Falcons in 2021. They were supposed to have one of the more dynamic aerial attacks in the league with Calvin Ridley and rookie mega-man Kyle Pitts leading the way. Matt Ryan led the world in pass attempts in 2020 and the Falcons were top-10 in passing rate per game. But when the dust settled on the season, all that offensive hope vanished into the humid Georgia air. 

The Falcons may have gone 7-10, but you wouldn’t know it to look at them. I swear to you, the season highlight video from their own team website prominently features a game where they needed a last second field goal to beat the freaking New York Giants:

With Calvin Ridley missing in action, Pitts hauling in just one score, and Mike Davis off somewhere trying to bribe other teams to sign free agent Cordarrelle Patterson, determining a buy and a sell for this sad sack franchise is a tall order. But I think I’ve cracked it. Let’s get into it for 2022.

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It’s the lasting, final image of the Arizona Cardinals’ season. The one fans have to live with for eight months. Kyler Murray throwing an interception that was so bad it drove The Rock to the bottle. lmaooooooo, the Rock hit the bottle after watching that Kyler Murray pick six pic.twitter.com/ihFsweDshv — CJ Fogler AKA Perc70 […]

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With one simple line of prediction, all the weeks of Air Yards analysis went down the crapper. Here it is, from the Week 16 Air Yards report:

“Antonio Brown might make the short list of 2021 playoff heroes after this week is over.”

Yikes. As one commenter pointed out, “that prediction did not wear well.” Brown also did not wear his jersey well, dropping it on the ground, and giving a farewell tour around the stadium just after halftime. At that point, his opportunity to help your fantasy team or his real life football team in the playoffs disappeared faster than the cannon smoke from Raymond James Stadium.

But Air Yards, like many other advanced stats, tells us what could (or perhaps should) happen given similar circumstances over time. Brown smashed in Week 16 with no Chris Godwin or Mike Evans. Given similar circumstances plus playing-time incentives in Week 17, we had every reason to believe Brown would manhandle the Jets. It was the process and in the process we trust. 

Until a potential mid-game retirement variable is introduced in to the Air Yards model, we will just have to rely on the data we have. What can 2021 air yards teach us for 2022? Let’s find out. 

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Air Yards have told quite the tale of the wide receivers in 2021. In the top ten list, air yards had some no-doubter homeruns like Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams. But there were also some swings and misses such as Terry McLaurin, DJ Moore and Courtland Sutton. If you were counting on any of these guys as your WR1/2, your season probably ended two weeks ago. But all is not lost! Store this info in the back of your mind and monitor these situations when quarterbacks start signing. Guys like McLaurin, Moore, and Sutton don’t just get air yards because they are lucky. Targets are earned and if these guys can get some more capable arms delivering the ball, they become the sleepers in your draft. 

Each week, this column dissects air yards for actionable info in the weeks to come, but for this column there will be a focus on championship week. For Week 17, we will do a quick analysis of the list of the 73 wide receivers who finished last week with at least 30 air yards and see if there are any diamonds we can mine from the rough.

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Air Yards are the Gordon Ramsey of fantasy receiving stats. They tell us exactly what was right and clearly what was wrong with how a receiver performed in a given week. Often, it’s not easy to hear. But you as a fantasy manager need to pay attention to the under-the-hood numbers from your receivers instead of just blindly trusting the box score results, you donkey. 

Each week, this column will dissect air yards for actionable info in the weeks to come. For Week 16, we will do a quick analysis of the list of the 66 wide receivers who finished last week with at least 30 air yards.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Air Yards are the Gordon Ramsey of fantasy receiving stats. They tell us exactly what was right and clearly what was wrong with how a receiver performed in a given week. Often, it’s not easy to hear. But you as a fantasy manager need to pay attention to the under-the-hood numbers from your receivers instead of just blindly trusting the box score results, you donkey. 

Each week, this column will dissect air yards for actionable info in the weeks to come. For Week 15, we will do a quick analysis of the list of the 75 wide receivers who finished last week with at least 30 air yards.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I’m not sure what the record is for lowest word count in a published article at Razzball, but I get I can beat it. Here goes:

“Buy Javonte Williams. Sell Melvin Gordon.” – Kirksey

      – 30 – 

There really is no other way to spin what we saw on Sunday night for the Broncos. Javonte is the new sports car finally unleashed on the highway while Melvin Gordon is the old family mule, limping around in the back of the barn, waiting out the end of its days. 

Of course you want to buy Javonte Williams, especially like a game on Sunday, but the price tag now may be ultra prohibitive, especially in dynasty formats. I saw a lot of hot takes on Monday saying Javonte Williams is the new RB2 in dynasty behind only Jonathan Taylor. “Easy to refute,” I thought. But then I thought, and thought, and thought some more. Maybe Najee Harris. Maybe De’Andre Swift. Maybe Antonio Gibson. But it’s not as crazy as it sounds.

 

And Javonte has 101 fewer carries that Jonathan Taylor. Plunder the 401K, sell the Bitcoin, just do whatever it takes to buy Javonte Williams. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Air Yards are the Gordon Ramsey of fantasy receiving stats. They tell us exactly what was right and clearly what was wrong with how a receiver performed in a given week. Often, it’s not easy to hear. But you as a fantasy manager need to pay attention to the under-the-hood numbers from your receivers instead of just blindly trusting the box score results, you donkey. 

Each week, this column will dissect air yards for actionable info in the weeks to come. For Week 13, we will do a quick analysis of the list of the 65 wide receivers who finished last week with at least 30 air yards.

Please, blog, may I have some more?