One of the struggles with using data in the NFL is that there are so few trials in order to get a good perception of what a team or player truly is. In the early portion of the season you must sort through the information that you have and constantly cross check to ensure that there isn’t any noise (schedule, injury, etc) in the data that you are attempting to use. Therefore, I’ve always enjoyed the back half of the season. There are more pieces to put together to tell a story of what is going to happen on a Sunday slate. I’ve nailed down some edges below that I’m hoping you can use to propel you into the season long playoffs, or get to the top of the DFS leaderboard.Please, blog, may I have some more?
This pun works because it is 20 degrees outside in Chicago and Golden Tate is the lede. I will be taking no further questions on the title.
Tate was a dead man walking in 2018. After multiple 1000+ receiving yard and 90 reception seasons he plummeted to a 74/795 line with a split season for the Lions and Eagles. He followed up that disastrous 30-year-old campaign with a 4-game suspension to start 2019 and was left for dead on draft day. Surprisingly, in 6 games this season he is averaging 8.3 targets and is on a 16-game pace of 88 receptions, 1112 yards, and 8 touchdowns. His numbers have spiked in the two games Evan Engram has missed. Reports state that Evan Engram will be out multiple weeks and the possibility of having his season shut down exists. Sterling Shepherd has a possibility of returning, but I’m unsure if that effects Daniel Jones obvious connection with Tate. The Giants aren’t going to stop losing games any time soon. Daniel Jones won’t stop pushing the ball into the seams any time soon. Jones is on an impressive 30 touchdown, 16 game pace himself. Tate is an outstanding WR3 moving forward with week to week upside based on touchdowns.Please, blog, may I have some more?
I noted last week that I would hit the last 16 teams in the NFL with a go forward view in this weeks article. I won’t waste any words, lets get to it.Please, blog, may I have some more?
We have been waiting for a fantasy football running back breakthrough and it is finally here in the form of Devin Singletary. Singletary was cemented behind Frank Gore and battled a hamstring injury for the first half of the season. However, the last two weeks he is receiving a 66% or higher snap share and broke out in Week 9 with 20 carries, 3 catches, 140 total yards, and a touchdown. As long as his hamstring can hold up he looks like the lead back behind the #3 offensive line in adjusted line yards in a run heavy offense. All of these positives along with the fact he gets the Browns and the Dolphins in the next two weeks to continue the forward momentum. As noted last week, I’m not sure that there are many opportunities like this that will come along the rest of the year outside of direct stud running back handcuffs. Spend your FAAB. Check the trade market. Get the guy. He could be a league winner.Please, blog, may I have some more?
I noted last week that I was looking forward to using the mid-season NFL point to provide a note or blurb on every team. I’ve started with 16 teams and will complete the rest of the league next week. It was honestly a fun exercise. I often get stuck in the week to week grind of the NFL season and forget to look ahead to take advantage of buy/sell opportunities, bottom of the barrel waiver wire options, and trying to catch trends before they happen. Hopefully, there is something in every one of these teams that you can use either in season-long fantasy, DFS, or in your “office pool”.Please, blog, may I have some more?
As I’ve gone through the process of completing the rest of season rankings, I’ve noticed a trend. The number of players that I have a strong confidence in for the rest of the season is dwindling… Fast! Whether this is from the regular attrition of the NFL season or the changing landscape of the way coaches deploy their personnel, it is happening.Please, blog, may I have some more?
The NFL year goes by so fast and the fantasy football season with it. As we approach the halfway point of 2019, I plan to spend next week’s article with a blurb on the second half outlook of each team, or player from each team, from a data point perspective. For this week though we stick with the norm of finding trends and in-week matchups we can expose. Hope everyone has a great finish to the first half of the fantasy season!Please, blog, may I have some more?
Remember when in-season trades never happened in the NFL? That was so, so, so long ago. This season we have had several notable players moved ranging from all-pro defensive backs to noted aerospace engineers (Josh Dobbs). However, the trade of Emmanuel Sanders has opened the opportunity for Courtland Sutton to continue his rise to fantasy glory. Sutton had already made a second-year jump prior to the trade and is currently sitting as the WR12 in half-PPR leagues. Sutton’s metrics support his rise to prominence with his player profiler athletic comparison being Alshon Jeffrey. He is 9th in weighted opportunities, top 20 in air yards, and top 20 in targets per game. His quarterback already stinks out loud so any mid-season change to a rookie, if Drew Lock were to get healthy, should have a minimal effect on his rest of season play. Expect the Denver Broncos to remain generally pesky as they fulfill a 5-6 win team destiny, and their air game to funnel through Courtland Sutton for the remainder of the 2019 season.Please, blog, may I have some more?
You see the struggles of the Cleveland Browns. You see the incompetence of Freddie Kitchens. You see the public turning on Baker Mayfield.
I beg of you. Please don’t sell Odell Beckham Jr.
The list of wide receivers in the last 2 years who finished top 10 in targets and top 5 in overall air yards that didn’t finish in the top 10 of fantasy football wide receivers is blank. Beckham is currently tied for 9th in targets per game among wide receivers. He is 5th in overall air yards. He is currently the 22nd rated WR in PPR. It is incredibly unlikely with the usage he is receiving, even factoring in a poor schedule, that OBJ doesn’t end the year as a WR1. Do not bail! In the interest of full disclosure I predicted Beckham as my fantasy MVP in the pre-season so I’m going down with this ship, but I’ve provided a really compelling argument to go along with my bias!Please, blog, may I have some more?
You may think putting NFL players names next to a number 1-80 in an excel spreadsheet is easy but LET ME TELL YOU SOMETHING!!!
Getting the right names… in the right order… slightly more difficult.
The toughest component I’ve found to establishing the rest of seasons rankings is deciphering current injury situations and how the reintegration of personnel will affect team’s offenses moving forward. With that in mind, this week I thought it would be more beneficial to detail some situations that are questionable, and some players in the top 30 with significant injury news.Please, blog, may I have some more?