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Guess who’s back, back again? Rome is back, tell a friend.

You heard it here first, I am back on the active roster for the Razzball Fantasy Football Team. This year’s focus will be targets. Each week I will highlight target share trends to help you dominate lineup decisions and critical waiver claims over the course of the season. Just add this as another tool to your belt, along with all of the other edge-creating tools provided by Razzball.

Today we highlight a few NFL roster changes that impact target opportunities. Keep in mind, not all targets are created equal. Red-zone and end-zone targets are more valuable than a 2-yard target at the 40-yard line. A departing receiver with an aDOT (average depth of target) of 11.2 is leaving behind more valuable targets than a departing WR with a 4.5 aDOT. While a team with a lot of vacated targets provides an opportunity to find value on draft day, a team that made additions to their WR room will dilute opportunities for some of our favorite fantasy receivers from 2020. Let’s dive in and take a look at who’s stock is up after the offseason.

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Fresh off their record setting Monday Night Showcase, the New Orleans Saints head east to take on the red hot Tennessee Titans. Despite the cloudy narrative surrounding Drew Brees’ production outside of the Mercedes-Benz Dome, Brees is 5-1 in road games this season and scored 27.1 fantasy points in his one full game in an open air stadium (wk 11 @ TB). Drew Brees is a bet on hall-of-fame talent and experience QB1 play in week 16’s tied-for-highest projected point total.

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With most fantasy leagues entering their Championship Sunday in week 16, we will only focus on running back situations that warrant start consideration. Starting running backs that will enter this Sunday 100% healthy, their traditional handcuff can be dropped to waivers to make better use of bench spots. Blocking your opponent, from adding a better defense or a starting caliber player at the QB and skill position (WR/TE/RB), is a tactic the most competitive and cut-throat players deploy. If your league plays to week 17, you will want to pay extra attention to the names below. Congratulations to everyone that made it to their championship game or are fighting for 2nd/3rd place prize pools.

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For a second week in a row Raheem Mostert dominated offensive snaps for the 49ers running back room, logging 73.7% (wk13) and 59.7% (wk14) snap share. Tevin Coleman ranked 3rd on the team in RB snap share following Matt Breida’s return from injury. Raheem handled 12 touches, over Breida’s 7 and Coleman’s 3. I’m not sure if Coleman is injured or Mostert and Breida are clearly the better option. Regardless, you can’t trust Coleman starting in any format for week 15 and most likely 16.

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Patrick Mahomes takes his offense into Foxborough searching for his first career win against the New England Patriots. Mahomes has thrown for 7 TDs / 2 INT / 647 yds in his two matchups against Belichick, last season. Pat posted 34.5 fantasy points during their regular season matchup (wk 6) and 27.9 points in an overtime loss during the conference championship. Andy Reid has faired well against New England in recent history, averaging 39.7 games over his previous 3 bouts against Bill (1 game with Alex Smith at QB).

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It’s that time of the year, the majority of fantasy leagues are entering the last week of the regular season. Fantasy owners that have secured a playoff spot need to prepare themselves for a championship victory. One way to protect yourself through the playoffs is by grabbing your stud running back handcuff. Unless you own two top 10 QBs, there is no reason to hold two quarterbacks. There is no point wasting bench spots with players that are never going to hit your starting lineup. Nothing is worse than losing Dalvin Cook while you are in the hunt for fantasy football glory only to find that you have no shot at grabbing Alexander Mattison because of low waiver priority or min FAAB budget. Make sure you grab your insurance policy before the price increases. Chris Carson owners are learning that lesson this week. Don’t get caught with your pants down and good luck as you jockey for playoff positioning.

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Ty Johnson was able to clear concussion protocol and suit up after carrying a questionable tag all week, but it was the Lions practice squad acquisition that led this backfield on Sunday against the Cowboys. Bo Scarbrough found the field for 49% of the Lions offensive snaps, leading both Ty Johnson (29%) and JD McKissic (23%), and looked good while doing it. Bo handled 74% of the Lions running back carries (14), and finished the day with 55 yards, 1TD, and 11.5 fantasy points. If the Lions did not fall behind in the second half, Scarbrough would have padded his stats a little more. The Lions turned to JD McKissic in the passing game, recording 3 receptions on 4 targets, with Bo recording 0 targets while the Lions were playing catch-up. Ty Johnson was an afterthought, taking his 2 carries for a measly 6 yards, making Bo one of the top adds this week. McKissic still offers low-end value in deeper PPR formats, but Ty Johnson can be dropped in most 12-team and small leagues.

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Brian Hill found himself under surveillance on week 4’s handcuff report and now finds himself atop the offender list for week 11. On Saturday, the Atlanta Falcons placed backup RB Ito Smith on injured reserve. Hill found himself thrusted into the #2 spot on the depth chart heading into Sundays matchup against the Saints, but finished the game as the #1 lead dawg in ATL following Devonta Freemans 3rd quarter exit. Hill finished the game with 40 offensive snaps, with Kenjon Barner recording the only other RB snaps (11) outside of Freeman. Freeman’s foot injury will need to be monitored throughout the week. The Falcons offense showed life returning from their bye and getting QB Matt Ryan back from injury, beating the NFC South leading New Orlean Saints 26 – 9. Fantasy owners, desperate for RB depth, need to place a waiver claim for Brian Hill this week. Qadree Ollison will assume #2 duties if Freeman were to miss an extended period of time.

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The 3-5-1 Arizona Cardinals are fresh off extended rest following their near dethroning of the undefeated San Francisco 49ers in week 9 on Thursday Night Football. Kliff Kingsbury if flying the NFL’s 3rd fastest paced offense to the East coast to take on Jameis Winston and the 4th most points per game, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Fantasy fireworks will be on full display in the highest projected point total for week 10. 

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