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If you didn’t see Cam Newton flip over a defender, get hit in the back while in the air, then stick the landing… kind of… for a touchdown in Jay’s Sunday recap, then you are probably a commie. Since we live in the Land of the Free! and the Home of the Brave!, where access to the internet is… free? Okay, screw the capitalists! Viva la revolution! I’ll shut up and just show it again for all those who missed it…

newtongymnastics

Cam Newton ended as the No. 17 quarterback in fantasy last year. That was primarily due to a rib injury that caused him to miss two games and be ineffective in many others. Prior to 2014, Newton finished as the sixth (2013), fourth (2012) and fourth (2011) quarterback. The main reason is his rushing ability.

 Year ATT YDS AVG TD
2011 126 706 5.6 14
2012 127 741 5.8 8
2013 111 585 5.3 6
2014 103 539 5.2 5
2015 24 111 4.6 1

Things are trending in the wrong direction. Attempts, yardage, average and touchdowns have all decreased every year, except for the yardage in 2012. Newton missed two games in 2014, so those numbers could have surpassed the numbers from 2013. With that said, those days of 700 yards and double-digit touchdowns are probably over. A more reasonable projection is around 550 yards and 7-9 touchdowns. Still good numbers, just not 2011 Rookie-of-the-Year Camazing.

The main reason for pessimism coming into 2015 was the lack of receiving options for Newton. The injuries to Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess have been well documented. Tight end Greg Olsen is the only reliable target and he has seven receptions for 81 yards with zero touchdowns in two games so far. Ted Ginn and Corey Brown are the starting wide receivers for the Carolina Panthers and Jerricho Cotchery suffered a high-ankle sprain and is probably out for 4-6 weeks.

smdh

Below is a table for Newton’s career passing stats:

 Year CMP ATT CMP% YDS TD INT
2011 310 517 60.0 4,051 21 17
2012 280 485 57.7 3,869 19 12
2013 292 473 61.7 3,379 24 13
2014 262 448 58.5 3,127 18 12
2015 36 68 52.9 370 3 2

The main take away is the decrease in passing yardage every year. The conservative nature of Ron Rivera coupled with a pretty stout Panthers defense should keep the attempts and yardage fairly low. The touchdowns and interceptions will probably be around 20/12. I don’t think we can glean too much from the 2015 completion percentage because it’s off a two game sample. With that said, the lack of offensive weapons and the clamping down on Greg Olsen could make a low completion percentage a reality.

The first two games of the season have been against the lowly Jaguars and Texans. Both games did not require Newton to chase points and allowed Rivera to turtle up and allow his defense to do a Panthers noise type-thing. As for the rest of the season schedule:

I see three games in which the Panthers may have to chase points: Monday night against the Colts, against the Packers, and the game in Atlanta.

Newton was drafted as the 11th quarterback in fantasy for 2015. He makes ridiculous plays and the Panthers have a soft schedule this year. If you’ve read my stuff before, you know I have an affinity for the running quarterback. If you haven’t, please read History of the Running QB.

Here is my projection for Newton this year: 265 completions, 475 attempts, 56% completion percentage, 3,400 yards, 18 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 120 rushing attempts, 600 yards and seven touchdowns. That equates to 354 fantasy points, which would have placed Newton as the No. 7 fantasy quarterback in 2014. In my Predicting the Top 10 Quarterbacks, written in the preseason, I chose Newton as one of the quarterbacks that could fall out of the top 10. Much of that was based on injury concerns. In this article, I am going to assume he plays all 16 games.

There will be some spectacular plays, like in the video at the beginning of the article, but mostly it’s going to be ugly. I would refrain from watching Panthers games with your children. In fantasy, we don’t care if it’s ugly or sexy as long as those points get tallied to our bottom line. We are basically eclectic, degenerate accountants.

Verdict

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You can follow Stan on Twitter.

  1. L says:
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    Thanks for bolstering my faith in Cam.

    I have a QB question for my other league though. It’s a 12 team PPR. I just lost Romo and have Mariota as my backup. I have several options for another QB since I don’t have faith in putting it all on Mariota. I have Forte and Latavius Murray as my RBs 1 and 2. I have Demarious Thomas, Landry, Devante Adams, And Edelman to fill my three WR one flex slot. I have the good problem of having Gio and Vereen on my bench. Two guys in my League who own Tyrod Taylor and Palmer are interested in a one for one for one of these RBs. So my question is who do you like ROS more between Vereen and Gio, and who would you rather have between Palmer and Taylor? Would you pull the trigger on one of these RB for QB swaps??? The waiver wire only has Carr and Fitzpatrick. Thanks in advance

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @L: I love TyGod, but you have to go Palmer between the two. I like Gio over Vereen. I would pull the trigger for Palmer.

  2. L says:
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    PPR league. Who would you rather trade for a QB straight up – vereen or Gio? And would you do it for Tyrod, Cam, or Palmer? How would you rank those QBs ROS to prioritize my offers. Thanks.

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @L: I would rather keep Gio. I would rank them: 1) Palmer 2) Cam 3) TyGod

  3. SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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    Yo. 20 team league, 1/4 pt PPR I’m in serious trouble. I’m 0-2 and have put up roughly 50 pts a week… not good.

    Q- Bradford
    Wr- Megatron
    Wr – Cooks
    Rb – Blount
    Rb – Duke Johnson
    TE – Olsen
    Flex – Ladarius

    Bn – Cecil Shorts
    Bn – Andre Williams
    Bn – Antonio Gates
    Bn – Javorius Allen
    Bn – Mallet

    K – Dawson

    Def- Cincinnati
    Def 2 – Giants

    Travis Benjamin, Malcolm Floyd, Crockket Gillmore, Fasano, Tamme, Dexter McCluster, Dobson, Heyward-Bey, Josh Robinson and Kamar Aiken are all on waivers.

    I feel like I’ve got to drop like 30 on McCluster givent the Mccluster that is my backfield – please let me know what you think for best pickups/drops and how much to blow

    thanks!

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @SheriffMcRawDawg: @SheriffMcRawDawg: 20-team league. Slim pickings on the wire. Your backfield is definitely hurting. I wouldn’t pay for any of those guys. I think you are going to have to get creative on the trade front.

      • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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        @Son: like megatron for gurley and Alshon kind of creative?

        • Son

          Son says:
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          @SheriffMcRawDawg: lot of risk there but if you believe then do it. That’s the frustrating and cool thing about trading. So many combinations you can pursue.

          • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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            @Son: I don’t really but trading in a 20 teamer is even more difficult

            • Son

              Son says:
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              @SheriffMcRawDawg: No doubt about that. Definitely have to get creative. Multiple team trades or layer trades.

  4. Johnny Boy says:
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    Would you trade Abdullah and David johnson for alshon, crowell, and spiller? Is spiller worth anything even?

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @Johnny Boy: I would hold onto Abdullah and David Johnson. Spiller has worth. I believe, but there are health concerns and concerns about Brees and Saints offense in general.

      • Joel says:
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        @Son: Thanks, Jay agrees haha just wanted a 2nd opinion. I am kind of flush with RBs though and really need a WR. I have Cobb, Cooks, and Mike Wallace and that’s pretty much it. My RBs are Bell, Abdullah, Johnson, Gurley, Knile Davis, and Deangelo Williams for handcuff.

        • Joel says:
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          @Joel: How about Abdullah for Latavius Murray?

          • Son

            Son says:
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            @Joel: I like Latavius more, but I’m a Raiders fan so take that for what it’s worth :)

        • Son

          Son says:
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          @Joel: You can never have too many running backs. Keep scouring the waiver wire and thinking of trade scenarios to improve your team. Get creative.

  5. Dom B says:
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    Okay so I have tony romo and Eli Manning and Tony is out for several weeks. Should I drop Tony Romo or stash him and should I ride out on Eli Manning or should I add a quarterback from waiver, Available QBs Colin Kapernick, Derek Carr, Tyrod Taylor, Blake Bortles, Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston, Ryan Mallet, Teddy Bridgewater, Marcus Mariota, Johnny Manziel, Kirk Cousins, Nick Foles, and Jay Cutler Who do I drop if I pick one up…. ALSO is Jason Witten still a TE 1 with Weeden. Here is my roster

    QB Tony Romo
    RB Leveon Bell
    RB Jonathan Stewart
    WR Julio Jones
    WR AJ Green
    TE Jason Witten
    Flex Latavius Murray
    K STEVE HAUSCHKA
    DEF RAVENS
    Bench
    QB ELI MANNING
    WR KEENAN ALLEN
    RB GIO BERNARD
    WR JOHN BROWN
    WR STEVE SMITH
    RB lagarette blount

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @Dom B: I would drop Romo. I like Tyrod, Mariota, and Dalton. I would think Witten would remain a TE1, but probably in the lower tier. The Cowboys are probably gonna keep Weeden from throwing too much but when they do will probably be low risk throws, which should benefit Witten. Gotta keep an eye on his injury situation though

  6. Dom B says:
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    Hey Jay so with Witten being hurt who would you add fir insurance in order please, Crockett Gilmore, Larry Donnell, Eric Ebron, Heath Miller, Kyle Rudolph, Darren Fells, Jared Cook, Richard Rodgers, or Jacob Tamme

  7. Dom B says:
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    Who should add and who should I drop I have a high wavier. Available people Matt Jones, Travis Benjamin, Dion Lewis, Stevie Johnson, James Stark, Devonta Freeman, Isaiah Crowell, Duke Johnson, Andy Dalton , Jameis Winston , Ryan Mallet , Teddy Bridgewater , Marcus Mariota , Johnny Manziel , Alex Smith, Colin Kapernick, and Tyrod Taylor… THANKS FOR THE ADVICE
    Here is my roster

    QB Tony Romo
    RB Leveon Bell
    RB Jonathan Stewart
    WR Julio Jones
    WR AJ Green
    TE Jason Witten
    Flex Latavius Murray
    K STEVE HAUSCHKA
    DEF RAVENS
    Bench
    QB ELI MANNING
    WR KEENAN ALLEN
    RB GIO BERNARD
    WR JOHN BROWN
    WR STEVE SMITH
    RB lagarette blount

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @Dom B: Dion Lewis, Matt Jones and Stevie Johnson. Then Tyrod and Mariota

  8. Barker says:
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    12 team ppr have # 11 waiver

    Qb rodgers wr calvin adams rb ingram lewis te reed flex spiller
    Bn bennett deangelo williams moncrief j bell charles johnson

    Available wr beasley baldwin mi floyd wheaton quick agholor cruz
    Available rb starks freeman
    Available te d walker

    I will put in waiver claims on freeman and starks but dont expect to get them but need to drop d williams anyway so if i miss those two get baldwin quick or beasley
    Also is c johnson a drop here ? Baldwin quick beasley over c johnson?

    Is d walker worth a shot ? Maybe get him and try to trade marty bennett?

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @Barker: I wouldn’t drop dwill for Baldwin, quick or Beasley. I wouldn’t drop c Johnson either. I like delanie walker. You can try to trade Bennett but it’s usually difficult to trade tight ends.

  9. Barker says:
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    10 team 1/2 ppr have # 1 waiver

    Team is 0-2 so need a win — i dont know if anyone on wire will help to that end — so maybe save the # 1 waiver

    Qb rivers wr cooks adams a robinson rb murray gore te olsen q/r/w/t newton
    Bn dez garcon agholor coleman blount mathews

    Available wr baldwin crabtree charles johnson benjamin royal quick marvin jones perriman
    Available rb j bell crowell starks matt jones
    Available qb foles carr bortles cousins
    Available te ASJ ebron

    Use waiver to Drop agholor or mathews for matt jones ? Or hold

    Also are both mathews and agholor droppable for me at this point? I dont really see a use for agholor outside of depth never going to use him.

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @Barker: I would pick up Matt Jones. Between Mathews and Agholor, I would keep Mathews.

  10. Diet Dew says:
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    Waiting on waivers in a 10 team PPR league. I have Romo and a waiver bid in for Dalton, Bridgewater, Taylor (in order)

    I was offered Eli and Jordan Reed for Jordan Matthews. I declined, but would you trade Alfred morris for Reed and Matthews.

    My current TE is ASJ, and I have waiver bids in on Crocket and Ebron

    So basically, make that trade or just take what the wavier wire brings to me?

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @Diet Dew: I’m a stream the tight end position guy, but getting Jordan Matthews would be nice. Who are your wr’s and rb’s?

      • Diet Dew says:
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        Sorry, I wasn’t clear. I have Jordan Matthews . Someone was trying to get him and I turned it down.

        I was going to counter with Alred Morris (my team) for Reed and Manning?

        My RBs are Charles, Morris, Spiller, Foster, Joique Bell (would drop for Matt Jones), Coleman, and Blount (I have a lot!)
        Wrs are – calvin johnson, jeffrey, agoholor, matthews, and john brown

        Thanks

        • Son

          Son says:
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          @Diet Dew: No way I do that trade

  11. Diet Dew says:
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    Also…Cam is available in my league. I have Matt Ryan, but he would be a good back-up.

    Matt Jones and James Jones are the best free agents on the market. My most droppable players are: Roddy White, Desean Jackson, and Darren Sporoles. Would you consider dropping White, Jackson and Sporoles for Newton, M. Jones, and J. Jones?

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @Diet Dew: In a 10 team league, you don’t really need a backup qb. For sure, you don’t need three. I love Matt Jones and prefer Jones over White and Jackson.

  12. help says:
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    demeryius thomas for alshon jeffery/ keenan allen
    d. thomahs for alshon jeffery/ sammy watkins

    d thomas/ t. coleman for frank gore/ alshon jeffery/ garcon

    could you rank these trades in order of which you’d do first/ last and which side wins the deal?

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @help: 1) DT/Coleman for Gore/Jeffery/Garcon. 2) DT for Jeffery/Allen 3) DT for Jeffery/Watkins.

      I think the DT side wins for 2 & 3. I like the Gore/Jeffery/Garcon side of 1.

  13. Dom B says:
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    Hey Jay is Tony Romo stashable for playoffs. Should I drop Tony Romo or Legartte Blount

  14. Comatose says:
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    Is Agholor droppable yet?

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @Comatose: I think it’s too early but depends on who replacement is

  15. A Hill O' Beans says:
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    Love the super bull SON!

    Got Cam in my dynasty this year for $15 which I was pretty happy with. For reference Winston and Mariota went for $23 and $28. People love shiny new things.

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @A Hill O’ Beans: Lol. Thanks. That’s a good bargain price for Cam. Gotta say, I be loving that Mariota bling though.

  16. help says:
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    what sides would you be on:

    1) green/mccoy/kelvin for gore/marshall/martavis/dez

    2) green/mccoy/kelvin for gore, james jones, bryant/ dez/ devanta freeman

    3) amari cooper/ graham for marshall/ gore/ bennet

    its a keeper league: kelvin benjamin and amari cooper are cheap, so is martavis bryant. rest irrelevant IMO.

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @help: 1) Gore/Marshall/Martavis/Dez. 2) Gore/Jones/Bryant/Dez/Freeman. 3) Cooper/Graham

      • Help says:
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        @Son: thanks for the response.. You think dez Bryant comes back then? I’m worried he’s done for the year… Although I am very bullish with martavis in a keeper just not sure if it’ll
        Materialize or if he can avoid smoking again… Hah

        • Help says:
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          @Help: what about James jones/dez/freeman /gore / garcon for shady/aj green

          Or Brandon Marshall/gore/freeman/dez for shady/ aj green..

          you bearish on lesean McCoy?

          • Son

            Son says:
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            @Help: I’m not that high on McCoy, but he has looked good and TyGod creates seams for him. Those aren’t bad trades if you are acquiring Shady and Green. If you have players in mind to scoop up, I prefer the first trade as it opens up roster spots. I’m thinking that you are thinking of proposing these trades right? I’m very skeptical that another owner will take a 5-for-2 trade. That means they have to drop three players. Actually, I’m kind of skeptical that another owner will take the second trade too. Keep me updated. I’m kind of curious

        • Son

          Son says:
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          @Help: No problem. Anytime. Legitimate concern with Bryant. Tough to stop the wacky tobacky, but his talent is too good to ignore. Plus that Steelers offense is crazy good. I’m not sure about Dez but he’s elite. You said it’s a keeper league right?

          • Help says:
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            @Son: yea it’s a keeper. The owner has expressed interest in the first deal I posted ( gore/martavis/dez/Brandon Marshall for kelvin Benjamin/aj green/ shady)

            I actually thought it was a decent offer and they proposed it to me. I always like to get an outside opinion to see if I’m I fact helping my team. With dez down until week 8 or possibly out the whole year I feel the need to replace a “stud” wr. It is a keeper but dez is $60 with a screw in his foot. Martavis is $6, kelvin Benjamin $1.

            I’d love to negotiate a deal without martavis in it but not sure they’ll gonfor it.

            Here’s my team fwiw:
            Matt Ryan
            Forsett
            Miller
            Gore
            Freeman
            Alshon
            Marshall
            Watkins
            Dez
            Martavis
            Garcon
            Martellus

            Yea a 5-2 or 5-3 is strange but they’re coming at me with the offer so wanted some insight! Thabks

            • Son

              Son says:
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              @Help: It’s actually not a bad offer. Ok, thanks for clarifying everything. I’m obviously biased toward certain players, but here’s my take.

              Gore to Shady could be an upgrade at RB. You are kind of weak there so I understand wanting to make the move. Gore has looked good to me. He just hasn’t been getting too much work. Plus, Indy has played 2 stout defenses to begin the season. As the season progresses, I feel they will utilize him more. They are 0-2 afterall. The backfield is Gore’s. He is older and probably doesn’t have many more years left, so I get wanting to upgrade. Shady has looked good, is younger, but Karlos Williams looks fantastic. Shady is only 27 but he’s logged alot of miles.Plus he’s a back that relies on quickness, so how many more years does he realistically have?

              AJ Green is a stud, but has Raggedy Andy throwing him the ball. Plus Cincy has plenty of weapons and likes to run the ball. When healthy, Dez is a notch above. BMarsh is old but still can ball. Martavis is the x-factor in this trade. He’s like Randy Moss. To me, he has too much upside. Playing with Ben, alonside Antonio, in that Pitt offense…he could be a beast. I’m just not a fan of Kelvin Benjamin. I owned him last year so got to watch alot of him. He’s not a great route runner and drops way too many balls. He’s not fast or quick. He’s very tall though and is a mismatch. Cam is great but he’s never been known for his accuracy. For wide receivers, I want guys that can catch, run great routes, and/or have blazing speed.

              It’s actually not a bad trade. Personally, I wouldn’t do it. I get that you want to upgrade Gore. I just prefer a different running back.

              • help says:
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                @Son: thank you. you share very similar views as myself… with the exception of probably being higher on gore than i am. i’ll see if i can remove martavis from one of the offers.

                id love to figure out how to get just aj green. i know dez is better but i have a gut feeling he might get shut down for the year with all the issues in dallas.

                thanks again. cheers.

                • Son

                  Son says:
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                  @help: I’d be wary of Dez this year, but it’s a keeper league. I heard a good point on a podcast today regarding Dez. In the fantasy playoffs, the Cowboys have to play the Bills and the Jets, so even if Dez does come back, those are tough defenses.

                  I am still high on Gore. He’s gonna get his very soon.

                  The axiom of trading. In order to get, gotta give.

                  Good luck.

  17. Dom B says:
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    Hey so I had Tony Romo go down so I dropped him now here is my current roster would you add any of these guys and drop blount or keep blount and stick with Eli. AVAILABLE RB: Isaiah Crowell and Devonta Freeman. Available QB: Marcus Mariota, Andy Dalton, Colin Kapernick, Phillip Rivers, Jameis Winston , Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater, and Alex Smith

    My roster
    QB ELI MANNING
    RB Leveon Bell
    RB Jonathan Stewart
    WR Julio Jones
    WR AJ Green
    TE Jason Witten
    Flex Latavius Murray
    K STEVE HAUSCHKA
    DEF BRONCOS
    BENCH
    TE CROCKETT GILMORE
    WR KEENAN ALLEN
    RB GIO BERNARD
    WR JOHN BROWN
    WR STEVE SMITH
    RB LAGARETTE BLOUNT

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @Dom B: I don’t think there’s a reason to drop Blount just yet. Maybe after the Jax game if Dion Lewis continues to be the man. Crowell and Freeman are whatever to me. There are plenty of quarterbacks available. You must not feel comfortable with Eli I take it? I’d stream in this situation based on matchups, as the waiver looks to have plenty of options available.

  18. Dom B says:
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    Who to start Jason Witten Or Crockett Gilmore

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @Dom B: I’d go Happy Gilmore

  19. Jerry says:
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    Hey, Son! McFadden, Blue, Powell, Dunbar, and Riddick are available on the wire. Who has the most value for ros? Thanks!

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @Jerry: Can I choose none? I’d go with Dunbar

  20. Jerry says:
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    Also, Tyrod or Andy Dalton ros? Thanks again!

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @Jerry: TyGod!!!

  21. Jerry says:
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    Ok, sounds good! I know, the rbs on our wire are very thin.

  22. Jerry says:
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    Son, also forgot to mention that Kapernick is available on waivers as well. Should I pick him up over Taylor or go with Tyrod?

  23. Jerry says:
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    Lol…………gotcha!

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