The NFL Draft is only days away so this is my last mock draft for the year. If you’d like to see up-to-date changes all the way up to Thursday night, check out ffdfantasyfootball.com and my full rundown of the whole first round on my Youtube channel. I’ve ranked in the Top 12 for NFL draft accuracy on Fantasypros in three of the last four years so I hope these articles will give you an idea of what to expect and help you get to know some of the big fantasy rookies you’ll be drafting this year. If you have any questions, comment below plus I answer all questions on Instagram @thefantasyfirstdown and Twitter @FantasyFirstDwn.
- Cam Ward (QB) to Tennessee Titans
This pick is all but locked in now. While the bookmakers are leaving a tiny possibility of other outcomes open, it would take an extraordinary event for the Titans to take someone other than Cam Ward. Ward is a solid all-round talent with more upside than the rest of this year’s passers. He’ll need to improve his reads and holds the ball too long, but the upside is there and long-term, he’s likely a good pick. For fantasy, his rushing will also give him a good floor, but the lack of receiving weapons around him will make passing tough in the short term. Expect a receiver with 2.35 and some more help later in the draft.
- Travis Hunter (WR/CB) to Cleveland Browns
This is heavily firming as Travis Hunter but most with Browns connections acknowledge this is far from a foregone conclusion. While the consensus is that Cleveland are leaning towards Hunter, Abdul Carter is very much a possibility as a bookend to Myles Garrett that would give the team a terrifying pass rush. Hunter, on the other-hand, would be an over-priced receiver, the first to go in the top two since Calvin Johnson, while playing under-trained defensive snaps. If used as a cornerback with occasional offensive snaps, I could see this working though. It’s easier to train a player on select offensive plays than as a bit-part defender. But the Browns have the alternative in mind and, well, I don’t like it.
- Abdul Carter (EDGE) to New York Giants
You’d think the Browns taking the wrong player would help the Giants and yet, somehow, it’s the total opposite. New York’s only real strength is their pass rush, with Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux already manning the edge. Abdul Carter would create an insane rushing rotation, but this isn’t the Giants of twenty years ago. It’s a team with a vast array of needs and using a high pick on an unneeded position isn’t ideal. And yet, Carter is so clearly the best player available, they have pretty much no choice. Shadeur Sanders is out of the question, it’s Carter if Hunter is gone.
- Will Campbell (OT) to New England Patriots
Shadeur Sanders falling down draft boards has snatched Abdul Carter and Travis Hunter away from New England. That’s a clear loss for them, as there are no other blue-chip players in this draft. The upside is that they can now better protect their most valuable player, quarterback Drake Maye. Will Campbell is considered the clear pick here and rightly so. Concerns with his arm length are over-blown and he has been reported as a favorite with Patriots staff throughout the draft process. He’ll slot in at left tackle, with the option to shift inside if necessary. Armand Membou is the primary alternative, with Jalon Walker the choice if they go away from the O-line.
- Mason Graham (DT) to Jacksonville Jaguars
I said in my last mock draft that this pick was subject to change and that remains the case, it just hasn’t happened yet. The Jaguars have a clear need at DT, but there is plenty of smoke around Armand Membou and Jalon Walker being possible picks here. This reflects a reported feeling within the building that defensive tackle isn’t a premium position. There is no doubt that Jacksonville needs to improve the protection for Trevor Lawrence, but their tackles haven’t been the major issue, and this is too early for IOL. Likewise, edge rush is important but not a weakness. This leads me back to Graham, for now. You’ll have to check out my website on draft evening to see where I ended up landing.
- Ashton Jeanty (RB) to Las Vegas Raiders
This is another pick I’m far from set on, despite the consensus suggesting Ashton Jeanty is a foregone conclusion. Yes, Jeanty is a good running back and fills a clear need for a team that can’t rely on Geno Smith for all of its offense. But this is a hefty price to pay for a runner when there are so many other needs. While Jeanty would contribute significantly in the passing game too, it’s the pass defense and blocking I’m more worried about. Will Johnson is a chance, but that depends on the Raiders’ grade on him. Maybe it’s Armand Membou otherwise.
- Armand Membou (OT) to New York Jets
If the first six picks go as anticipated, this pick has two clear options. Armand Membou would give the Jets a fabulous bookend to Olu Fashanu and optimise Justin Fields’s chances of succeeding. Alternatively, Tyler Warren would somewhat mediate the error New York made in passing on Brock Bowers last year (though Warren is half the player Bowers is). But I’m also leaving the possibility open that Mason Graham falls. If that’s the case, I’d love to see him next to Quinnen Williams in what would create a brutal D-line, easing scoreboard pressure on Fields.
- Jalon Walker (EDGE) to Carolina Panthers
Carolina has a lot of needs, but none is more pressing than an edge rush that has looked impotent since the departure of Brian Burns. Jalon Walker is the popular pick here, but he’s looking increasingly likely to be gone by 1.08. I could see a number of possible reactions. Mykel Williams was my original pick and I still like the fit as a safer, true edge rusher. Alternatively, if Mason Graham falls, he would fit nicely in as interior rusher next to Derrick Brown. Finally, don’t discount a trade back if there’s a buyer interested. Worst case scenario, maybe they just take Tyler Warren if he’s available?
- Mykel Williams (EDGE) to New Orleans Saints
The Georgia edge rushers go off the board back-to-back as I make one of the toughest pick predictions in the draft. The Saints have so many needs that it’s really tough to know what to expect here. The bookmakers are leaning quarterback but most sharp reports suggest their primary interest is in Jaxson Dart in the second round. Dart is a better Kellon Moore fit but 1.09 would be far too early. As a result, I’m going with Albert Breer’s report and mocking them an edge rusher. But don’t discount a trade back, Jeanty, Warren, Johnson or another edge.
- Tyler Warren (TE) to Chicago Bears
Unsurprisingly, as we move through the draft, it becomes increasingly difficult to project exact players. This is particularly true of the Bears, who can go in a range of directions. They have been linked to D-linemen, but to me, that is the least likely option. I do think this is the floor for Membou and Will Campbell, while Kelvin Banks is a real possibility to conclude the O-line rebuild. But I think Ben Johnson will be most inclined to find his Jahmyr Gibbs or, in this case, his Sam LaPorta. Tyler Warren is an upside tight end, nearly a Brock Bowers Lite.
- Kelvin Banks (OT) to San Francisco 49ers
My persistent struggle between Kelvin Banks, Will Johnson and Kenneth Grant for this pick continues. At least in this case, Mykel Williams is off the board, as I think he’s also a viable option. But I’m leaning Banks, as the 49ers badly need to stimulate their ailing run game and protect their mediocre, system quarterback. Having said that, selecting a defensive lineman is a 49ers move as old as time and Kenneth Grant is a solid run blocker who could go anywhere between here and the 30s, depending on how teams perceive his pass rushing ability.
- Tetairoa McMillan (WR) to Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have similar needs to the 49ers, but also need help at running back and, most importantly, wide receiver. And it’s receiver that is by far the most likely selection here. It’s generally considered that Tetairoa McMillan is their preferred pick, but Matthew Golden can’t be discounted as a speed threat opposite CeeDee Lamb. I’d personally choose the big-bodied McMillan if I’m Jerry Jones though. A more natural complement to Lamb, the biggest question is whether he can separate, or if he’s another Quentin Johnston.
- Will Johnson (CB) to Miami Dolphins
Will Johnson has one of the highest ranges among potential top ten picks, as he could reasonably go to the Raiders, Saints, Bears, 49ers, Cowboys, Bengals or Cardinals with no complaints from me. In this mock, he falls to the Dolphins who snap him up to play as their likely Jalen Ramsay replacement opposite Storm Duck or Cam Smith. Yeah, the need is obvious. Unfortunately, Miami is also starting Patrick Paul at LT and Ifeati Melifonwu at safety. Hence, Kelvin Banks is a great alternative and if neither is available, this is likely Nick Emmanwori’s ceiling.
- Colston Loveland (TE) to Indianapolis Colts
The bookmakers are very clear on Colston Loveland; he’s considered highly unlikely to go in the Top 10, but is a heavy favorite to go in the Top 17. Every team from 11-17 is set at tight end except for one. The Colts have been fluffing around with as many as five rotational tight ends for years and now they can end that trend with a true every-down receiving option who can also block sufficiently. The alternative to this pick is an interior blocker like Gray Zabel or Tyler Booker. This seems equally as likely but would ideally involve a trade back, as this is early for a guard. Heck, Booker doesn’t even make it into this mock!
- Shemar Stewart (EDGE) to Atlanta Falcons
After missing out on Kayvon Thibodeaux in 2022 and Will Anderson in 2023, the Falcons passed on their planned pick, Laiatu Latu, to get Michael Penix last year; costing me money and a Top 5 accuracy rating on my mock. This year, will they finally improve the league’s second worst pass rush? I’m hoping so! This is a strong edge rush class and I could imagine them going in a number of different directions. If Mykel Williams is off the board, I think a trade down is the preference. But Stewart could be the risky upside pick, as could Mike Green or James Pearce Jr, who also misses out in this mock due to character issues, despite his enormous potential.
- Derrick Harmon (DT) to Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals badly need defensive help. While a cornerback would more logically be paired with a trade back, I can see a defensive lineman fitting into this range nicely. With the top four edge rushers off the board, Arizona gets their pick of the defensive tackles. While I love Kenneth Grant, I question how highly teams rate his pass rush, and run stuffers traditionally belong towards the end of the first round at best. Meanwhile, Derrick Harmon has consistently risen throughout the draft process. While the Steelers love him, it’s looking increasingly unlikely he doesn’t get to them and he goes to Glendale here.
- Mike Green (EDGE) to Cincinnati Bengals
In the last week, it’s been reported that Trey Hendrickson is more likely to stay in Cincinnati. But edge rusher remains their greatest need, as Joseph Ossai and Myles Murphy just aren’t enough. Unfortunately for them, the top four guys are all off the board. That could lead to a trade back, a reach on a risky edge, or a shift to the secondary. With no cornerbacks at home in this range, Nick Emmanwori seems the natural alternative. But instead, the Bengals take a risk and select Mike Green. His major character concerns have him dropping, but it only takes one team to fall in love, and that sounds like a classic Bengals move.
- Grey Zabel (OG) to Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks offensive line was one of the league’s worst last year, despite stud 1st rounder Charles Cross manning a tackle spot. The issue remains the interior, and I expect the Seahawks to come away from the draft with multiple O-linemen. The key question is, will this occur in the first round? I think their other need is some pass catchers for new passer Sam Darnold. So this is a spot we could see Matthew Golden land in, while Colston Loveland could be the pick if he falls. But in this mock, I’ve selected Zabel, a versatile and experienced OL with short arms. He can fill in whichever lineman is weakest come Week 1.
- Jihaad Campbell (LB) to Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is my sixth time mocking Jihaad Campbell to the Buccaneers, so you’d think this is a lock, but I don’t think that’s the case. I could easily see him going to the Falcons, Rams, Ravens or Bills, who could all use help over the middle. But the Buccs are the most likely, with Lavonte David aging and a history of drafting 1st round inside linebackers. But edge rush is also a pressing need and I wouldn’t be shocked if we see them go that way, or even a cornerback if they love one. Plus, Campbell comes with some risk due to a shoulder injury and inexperience off-the-ball so a fall isn’t out of the question.
- Omarion Hampton (RB) to Denver Broncos
The Broncos had nothing good at running back last year, then lost Javonte Williams. Luckily, this is a deep running back class with a number of second round options available. So, while Omarion Hampton is the chalk pick here, I could easily see Denver going in another direction if they see the value. I think the first possibility is a trade up into the Top 10 to snaffle a falling Ashton Jeanty. I could also see a pass catcher of some sort, plus Jihaad Campbell is possible too. Hampton is a big back with receiving chops. A perfect complement for Jaleel McLaughlin.
- Kenneth Grant (DT) to Pittsburgh Steelers
The contradictory reporting on the Steelers continues to baffle me. In the last three days I’ve heard from ordinarily trustworthy reporters that the Steelers would take a defensive tackle, the Steelers love Shadeur Sanders, the Sanders interview went terribly, Mike Tomlin loves Sanders, the Steelers like Jalen Milroe at 1.21 and Sanders himself saying if teams want him, they’ll need to get ahead of the Steelers. Pittsburgh isn’t ordinarily a team to play crazy games with the draft, so this is all very strange. *shrug* As a result, I’ll give them Kenneth Grant. A big run stuffer, his draft position will be dictated by teams’ perception of his ability to pressure the quarterback.
- Walter Nolen (DT) to Los Angeles Chargers
With Colston Loveland well off the board and fellow Wolverine Kenneth Grant also unavailable for Jim Harbaugh, I’m giving LA the love/hate prospect Walter Nolen. Teams are split on the Ole Miss product with character concerns and inconsistent tape, but the upside is enough to get at least one team excited and see him selected in the first round. This feels a little early, but I think his true ceiling is actually the Cardinals at 1.16. Alternatively, with Matthew Golden falling, I also wouldn’t be shocked to see the Chargers pick a Joshua Palmer upgrade.
- Matthew Golden (WR) to Green Bay Packers
The Packers tend to select players they have in for a visit and they’ve not only brought in a lot of wide receivers, they looked at Matthew Golden twice! This feels like his floor, though I personally hate the fit. There are a heap of smaller, fast receivers at Lambeau, so why add another? I could certainly see Green Bay going for a defensive tackle instead, but in this mock, two just went off the board. That opens up the final alternative, a cornerback. Golden’s college teammate Jahdae Barron is a natural fit here, probably replacing Keisean Nixon in the slot.
- Nick Emmanwori (S) to Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are the most obvious trade down spot and I could see a team moving up to grab a quarterback here. Jumping the Texans for an offensive lineman also isn’t out of the question for teams like the Chiefs. But if Minnesota sticks and picks, I think they’re most likely attacking their defense. With the main defensive linemen off the board, that leaves us with their greatest weakness, the secondary. A cornerback is very possible, but to me, Nick Emmanwori is an elite prospect they can’t pass on with Cam Bynum gone and Harrison Smith next.
- Emeka Egbuka (WR) to Houston Texans
O-line has been the popular Texans pick among bookmakers and mock drafters, but I’ve typically gone elsewhere, mocking them defensive tackles and receivers until last mock when I finally shifted to Josh Simmons. I still think he’s possible. Houston have rebuilt their line but it’s far from flawless and needs to be better if they’re going to get the best out of CJ Stroud. But Emeka Egbuka is a clear first round candidate to me, and this is such a natural fit that I’m going back to my Mock Draft 2.0 and putting him back with the Texans, instead of his injured college teammate Simmons.
- Jahdae Barron (CB) to Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have a range of options here. O-line is a bookies’ favorite but Alaric Jackson’s re-signing makes that less likely. With no obvious D-line, wide receiver or tight end prospects available, cornerback is the obvious choice. Jahdae Barron is small and better suited to the slot, but he’s generally considered the third best cornerback in this class. But don’t discount Trey Amos, Maxwell Hairston, Shavon Ravel or Benjamin Morrison. Cornerback is one of the most divisive positions from a scouting perspective and could throw up some surprises this year.
- Malaki Starks (S) to Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are experts at finding value in the draft. While I think they’d prefer to select an edge rusher, Malaki Starks is a real talent who will likely fall due to safety’s lower positional value. Slotting him in behind Kyle Hamilton would free the latter up to play in the box more often and improve the Ravens’ defense over the middle of the field. The lack of consensus on whether Starks or Nick Emmanwori is the top safety could see Starks gone well before this, but I think Emmanwori is the superior upside prospect, with Starks not showing enough this year to go earlier.
- Donovan Ezeiruaku (EDGE) to Detroit Lions
Dan Campbell gonna Dan Campbell. While edge rusher is an obvious selection opposite Aidan Hutchinson, the player is going to be down to the head coach’s feel on the right squad fit. While James Pearce Jr is the superior player, his major character issue mean he won’t go here. Donovan Ezeiruaku on the other hand is a true leader who will fit the hard grind style of the Lions. His speed rushing style would also complement Hutchinson nicely. Also look out for JT Tuimoloau or an offensive lineman here. In particular, I like Tyler Booker, who scouts rave about as a hard worker who loves football and plays a low value position at a high level.
- Josh Conerly (OT) to Washington Commanders
Top teams can afford to take a risk on talented players with injury concerns, meaning Josh Simmons and James Pearce Jr are legit options late in the first round for the Commanders. But Washington has brought in Josh Conerly on multiple visits and I could see him fitting in nicely at right tackle for Jayden Daniels. I also wouldn’t discount a cornerback here and if a wide receiver fell this would, I expect, be their landing spot. Though I think it’s more likely Washington picks up a running back and/or a wide receiver on Day 2 of the draft.
- Maxwell Hairston (CB) to Buffalo Bills
I still feel like the Bills would be best off improving their run defense with a run-stuffing defensive lineman like Alfred Collins here or, if he falls, a safety like Malaki Starks. But positional value suggests cornerback is the preferred pick and there’s a pile of options late in the first round. Maxwell Hairston is the bookies’ favorite, but I personally prefer Trey Amos, who Buffalo has met twice. Also look out for Shavon Revel and Benjamin Morrison, who I’ve mocked in the first round before, but their injury issues have me, and maybe teams, a little spooked.
- Josh Simmons (OT) to Kansas City Chiefs
Welcome back to another episode of “Ben Mocks the Chiefs an Offensive Tackle”. Last year, Kansas City waited until the second round for Kingsley Suamataia, and while a shift to guard may still work out for him, the Chiefs absolutely must protect Patrick Mahomes better with quality tackles. I don’t believe Jaylon Moore and Jawaan Taylor are the answers and I wouldn’t be surprised if KC even moves up, as they have a history of doing, to get their guy. Who is their guy? I have no idea, but I know they liked Josh Simmons enough to meet with him. If his injury checked out, he’s a good fit for the Super Bowl finalists.
- TRADE! Shadeur Sanders (QB) to Cleveland Browns
SURPRISE! It’s a trade! This is more notional than anything else. I think if Shadeur Sanders and Jaxson Dart make it past the Saints and Steelers, somebody will jump into the first to grab them. This particular trade would likely be in order to grab the fifth year option, but I could imagine a trade to a higher spot or a team like the Giants, Saints, Jets or Raiders jumping the Browns to get their guy. The Giants and Browns in particular are known to like Sanders OK, just not enough to select him with a Top 3 pick. But late second round? Surely!
