There have been some big changes in the top five with one star at risk of falling out of the first round entirely! All the latest updates are here in my fifth mock draft. I’ve ranked in the Top 12 for NFL draft accuracy on Fantasypros in three of the last four years so I hope these articles will give you an idea of what to expect and help you get to know some of the big fantasy rookies you’ll be drafting this year. If you have any questions, comment below plus I answer all questions on Instagram @thefantasyfirstdown and Twitter @FantasyFirstDwn. You can find the full mock draft at ffdfantasyfootball.com and my full rundown of the whole first round on my Youtube channel.
- Cam Ward (QB) to Tennessee Titans
The Titans have all but confirmed this will be Cam Ward. In fact, I imagine if they were allowed to, we’d be getting confirmation this week. While a trade back isn’t totally out of the question, it doesn’t seem like any team would pay the exorbitant price they’re requesting. So it will be Ward. Lock it in. Ward is a solid all-round talent with more upside than the rest of this year’s talent. He’ll need to improve his reads and holds the ball too long. But the upside is there and long-term, he’s likely a good pick.
- Travis Hunter (WR/CB) to Cleveland Browns
It’s evident the Browns don’t believe in Shadeur Sanders enough to take him at 1.02 and frankly, rightly so. This is a far weaker quarterback class than last year’s bumper crop, pushing the Browns to likely select their quarterback of the future in Round 2 or with a trade up to late in Round 1. Whether that’s Sanders, Jaxson Dart, Jalen Milroe or even Tyler Shough remains to be seen. In the last week, it’s become evident that the Browns favor Travis Hunter over Abdul Carter. That’s crazy to me, but it’s made worse by the Browns considering Hunter a WR! Calvin Johnson was the last receiver to go in the top two and while Hunter is good, he’s no Johnson. I’d much rather see them pair Myles Garrett with Abdul Carter to have the league’s best pass rush.
- Abdul Carter (EDGE) to New York Giants
I’ve been mocking the Giants Shadeur Sanders for weeks now and it seems that may still occur. But it will be either at 2.34 or with a trade up into the late first round. Sanders is in for a draft day fall with no team willing to spend up on a QB with limited upside. Hence the Giants can pick up one of the draft’s best prospects. For most teams, Abdul Carter is top of their board, but New York is already set at edge with Brian Burns and Kaydon Thibodeaux. They’d much rather improve their weak receiver and secondary groups with Travis Hunter. But alas, they miss out.
- Will Campbell (OT) to New England Patriots
Unlike the first three picks, this selection is still a true question mark. Bookies have Will Campbell as the prohibitive favorite and all reliable reporting has suggested that’s been the correct read since the Giants shifted away from Shadeur Sanders at 1.03. Campbell was the favorite to be the first OL off the board until Armand Membou’s explosive combine. But unlike most other teams, Campbell remains the guy for New England. Despite his short arms, the LSU alum a safe pick. If the Pats decide not to select a tackle. Look out for Jalon Walker or Mason Graham.
- Mason Graham (DT) to Jacksonville Jaguars
James Gladstone, the Jags’ new GM, has outright said his team will come away from the draft with multiple defensive tackles. With Mason Graham the prohibitive favorite to be the first defensive lineman off the board, this connection has been indicated for a long time. But it’s not that simple. O-line is a strong need for the Jaguars and multiple reporters have linked Jacksonville to both Armand Membou and Will Campbell, as at least one will certainly be available. So, this remains Graham for me for now, but that could still change.
- Ashton Jeanty (RB) to Las Vegas Raiders
A first-round quarterback now appears out of the question for the Raiders (outside a trade up for a second pick). Their awful rushing last year has led to speculation that Vegas will select a Josh Jacobs replacement in Ashton Jeanty. Ordinarily, I would suggest that 1.06 is too early a pick to use on a non-premium position when the player isn’t elite. But this is a weak draft for top-end talent and the Raiders need an offensive outlet that doesn’t rely on the mediocre arm of Geno Smith. But also don’t discount a defensive option like Jalon Walker or Will Johnson.
- Armand Membou (OT) to New York Jets
Early reports suggested the Jets would take Shadeur Sanders if he was available at 1.07, and yet it seems they will enter the 2025 season with Justin Fields and a Day 2 selection in their QB room. This would be a good outcome if they optimise their passers’ chances of success, and it seems like they will do just that. Reports suggest Armand Membou and Tyler Warren are the two players under most consideration. Membou underwent a huge rise after the combine and could slot in at RT opposite 2024 selection Olu Fashanu. Warren would be a reach and an over-reaction to New York missing out on Brock Bowers in last year’s draft.
- Jalon Walker (EDGE) to Carolina Panthers
The Panthers badly need assistance on defense with every level likely to be addressed during the draft. But a Brian Burns replacement needs to be a priority after a quiet free agency for the edge rush unit. Mykel Williams is my favorite non-Carter edge rusher, as a safe and productive player. But his Bulldogs teammate Jalon Walker is rising and is considered almost a lock to go in the Top 10. More at home off the line of scrimmage, Walker will need some development to fit Carolina’s scheme, making this a questionable choice for me. I’d much rather see Williams here.
- Shadeur Sanders (QB) to New Orleans Saints
The Saints have a habit of pushing contracts down the road with void years often extending well into the future. That’s exactly what they’ve done with Derek Carr, meaning at some point they will need to hit a full rebuild if they’re to have a chance of truly competing in the future. Drafting Shadeur Sanders would not achieve this at all, and yet it’s seeming increasingly likely with Carr’s shoulder injury potentially preventing him from starting Week 1 of the coming season. I’d still favor using Spencer Rattler to tank for a 2026 QB, but what do I know?
- Tyler Warren (TE) to Chicago Bears
I struggle with this pick. My instincts suggest the Bears are desperate to protect Caleb Williams and an offensive lineman is the best way to do that. But do they value Kelvin Banks enough to take him in the top ten? I’m unsure. There are plenty of other alternatives too. Ashton Jeanty would likely be the pick if the Raiders pass on him, and they also need DT help, with Kenneth Grant either a good option or a massive reach, depending on who you ask. I would prefer Banks but I think Warren is more likely to go in this range, though he’s no Bowers.
- Will Johnson (CB) to San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have three viable options here. An offensive lineman (likely Kelvin Banks), a defensive lineman (likely Kenneth Grant, though Mykel Williams et al aren’t out of the question) or a cornerback. I believe Will Johnson belongs on the edge of the top ten as the clear best cornerback not named Travis Hunter in this class. Johnson has a fantastic build for the position, with great speed and athleticism for his size. He does struggle with changes of direction and takes too many risks, but I believe the latter at least can easily be coached out if necessary.
- Tetairoa McMillan (WR) to Dallas Cowboys
Like the 49ers, the Cowboys could easily take Will Johnson, Kelvin Banks or Kenneth Grant, but their greatest need is at receiver. CeeDee Lamb was the only true receiving option for Dak Prescott last season and that really showed. Tetairoa McMillan gives the Cowboys a big-bodied receiver who can take pressure off Jake Ferguson in the red zone and move some cover out-wide to open up space for Lamb. McMillan is a master of contested catches but similar to the likes of Quentin Johnston and Kelvin Benjamin, can he separate at the highest level?
- Kelvin Banks (OL) to Miami Dolphins
Once again, the question remains who of Kelvin Banks, Will Johnson and Kenneth Grant a team will take. With Johnson gone and the Dolphins having less of a need along the D-line, I’m ending the Kelvin Banks fall. I say fall, knowing I mocked him here in my 4.0 mock, but that was before Campbell and Membou were both gone within the first 7 picks. Banks is a great player who is considered a safe pick given his good character and ability to shift inside if he’s not performing at tackle. The Dolphins must protect Tua Tagovailoa but if the top three tackles aren’t available, watch for Nick Emmanwori. This is the range where the star safety could first come off the board.
- Colston Loveland (TE) to Indianapolis Colts
I can see this pick going one of three ways. Tyler Booker is reportedly a popular player among the Colts brass, but this feels very early to take a pure guard. Nick Emmanwori likely falls somewhere in the teens and the Colts, despite their Cam Bynum signing, need some secondary help. But the most likely pick is a tight end. Tyler Warren would be the option if he falls to this pick but even if he doesn’t I wouldn’t be surprised if Colston Loveland is selected. A true three-down player, he finally gives Indy their first star tight end this decade.
- Mykel Williams (EDGE) to Atlanta Falcons
For the third consecutive year, I’m mocking the Falcons an edge rusher. They broke my heart (and wallet) last year by picking Michael Penix ahead of their original preference, Laiatu Latu. This led to the second fewest sacks in the league last season. This year, that must change. Mykel Williams is my favorite non-Carter edge rusher who is an absolute bargain if he falls this far after his Bulldogs teammate went in the Top 10. Williams is a safe prospect but it is possible the Falcons take the upside pick in Mike Green or Shemar Stewart.
- Kenneth Grant (DT) to Arizona Cardinals
Another tough team to project, the Cardinals could target the O-line or any level of their defense. In this mock, their primary options are defensive lineman Kenneth Grant, edge rushers Mike Green and Shemar Stewart and cornerback Jahdae Barron. Matthew Golden is an outside chance at receiver. Grant and Green are the most likely to go in this range. Grant is arguably the most talented interior lineman in this class, but he is more of a big run stuffer rather than a pass rusher. Hence the question is, how much do Arizona believe in a potential nose tackle?
- Mike Green (EDGE) to Cincinnati Bengals
Rumors of Trey Hendrickson being traded away continue to rage, increasing the odds of an edge rusher going to the Bengals in the early rounds. A defensive tackle addition is also likely, but probably on Day 2. Meanwhile, I feel like this is the perfect range for safety Nick Emmanwori. But with Mike Green still on the board, this will be all about the Bengals’ risk tolerance. Are they willing to take a player who was suspended at UV before moving to Marshall? Are his character issues overblown? Will his production convert to stronger opponents? We shall see.
- Tyler Booker (OG) to Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks badly need interior O-line help, but spending a first round pick on a guard is rarely an efficient use of resources. Having said that, guard contracts have been rising of late, and that could lead teams to value guards a little more in the draft. And there’s no better guard prospect than Tyler Booker. It’s possible he goes as early as the Colts. And that opens up other possibilities for the Seahawks. With DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett moving on, Matthew Golden is a viable speed threat to complement JSN. Tight end is also an option to upgrade Noah Fant.
- Jihaad Campbell (LB) to Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jihaad Campbell has seemed like a 1st round lock for a while, with the Buccaneers, Falcons and Rams viewed as the more likely landing spots. But there’s suggestions that his shoulder surgery and inexperience as an off-the-ball linebacker may cause him to fall. Most reports suggest the Buccaneers want to target the front seven of their offense, but Liam Coen has openly admitted CB depth is an option too, though I expect that happens later. That means if it’s not Campbell, this is likely an edge rusher like Shemar Stewart or Mike Green.
- Omarion Hampton (RB) to Denver Broncos
The Broncos have done as great job of building a well-balanced roster, but they lack playmakers on offense. Wide receiver has been popularly mocked to Denver, but I believe that Marvin Mims, Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele are sufficient deputies to Courtland Sutton. After all, this is a weak WR class, so unless Sean Payton loves Matthew Golden, or Tetairoa McMillan falls, running back makes more sense. Ashton Jeanty is out of the question, but Omarion Hampton is a big back with receiving chops who complements shifty Jaleel McLaughlin nicely.
- Derrick Harmon (DT) to Pittsburgh Steelers
This pick will likely depend on the Saints’ pick. If Shadeur Sanders slides past New Orleans at 1.09, there’s a good chance he falls to at least this spot. Whether another team jumps above 1.21 remains to be seen. But in this mock Sanders is long gone, meaning the Steelers can attend to their aging defensive line and grab a quarterback on Day 2 (as I don’t believe they like Jaxson Dart enough to take him on Day 1). Derrick Harmon’s good combine has thrust him into the first round conversation. Harmon is solid on all three downs but needs work on his interior rush technique. I also wouldn’t discount the possibility of a Najee Harris replacement eg Omarion Hampton.
- Walter Nolen (DT) to Los Angeles Chargers
I thought I was being a little alternative when I mocked Colston Loveland to the Chargers. Now I can barely find a mock which doesn’t have the tight end at 1.22. While I think that pick is still possible, it’s starting to look like Loveland will go earlier, and that’s what I’ve got happening in this mock. Jim Harbaugh seems far more likely to fix the trenches with his early picks and that aligns with some recent reports, suggesting D-line is the likely first round pick. Walter Nolen is a love-hate guy with plenty of upside and gives LAC much-needed inside pressure.
- Jahdae Barron (CB) to Green Bay Packers
Consistent speculation has linked the Packers to a wide receiver, but that makes no sense. Tetairoa McMillan is the only alpha type, and Green Bay doesn’t need another WR2. That pushes me towards cornerback and defensive tackle, both of which will likely happen in the first two days. In this mock, with two DTs falling in the last two picks, the value lies at CB. Jahdae Barron is in the argument to be the first cornerback off the board and that’s nuts to me. He’s too small to be a reliable outside guy and may end up locked in the slot. But at this spot, he’s fine.
- Nick Emmanwori (S) to Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings badly need to improve their secondary, particularly their safety room, with Cam Bynum taking his dance moves to Indy and Harrison Smith close to retirement. And Nick Emmanwori is staring them in the face. An enticing mix of size and speed, he’s an absolute bargain here. He really should go earlier, but safeties have a history of falling in drafts. If Emmanwori is gone, I can imagine fellow safety Malaki Starks being the pick. Heck some would argue he should be the first safety selected. Otherwise, I think DT and CB are necessary picks we’ll see over the first few rounds for Minnesota.
- Josh Simmons (OT) to Houston Texans
The bookies believe this pick is highly likely to be an offensive lineman, as the Texans fully retool their O-line. But I’m not so sure. While wide receiver makes less sense with the signing of Christian Kirk in free agency, I still feel defensive tackle is a real hole. But with Harmon and Nolen both gone, I don’t see another likely first round DT option. Josh Simmons on the other hand is a strong OT whose draft stock has been tanked by an ACL injury. But that’s far from a death sentence these days and I think Simmons gives CJ Stroud the kind of protection he needs. Grey Zabel is also a real possibility.
- Maxwell Hairston (CB) to Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are so hard to predict and the odds-makers seem to agree. But I find it hard to agree with having DL and QB so high when tight end and wide receiver are such obvious needs. I’m consistently tempted to give them Emeka Egbuka but I’m starting to expect some big falls for this receiver class. Maxwell Hairston, on the other hand, is rising after a strong combine. He gives the Rams some speed out wide and their first non-Day 3 cornerback in years. Though to be fair, the Rams haven’t had a Round 1 pick most drafts, so maybe this is a trade back spot?
- Shemar Stewart (EDGE) to Baltimore Ravens
I hate mocking the Ravens. They always seem to find value and it’s not always a positional need, though they have started being a little more predictable in recent years. This year, I’m expecting either an edge rusher or a left tackle. While Josh Conerly is a totally reasonable pick in this range, there’s clearly more upside with Shemar Stewart. Stewart could easily go in the top ten with his athleticism and speed, but his poor college production and lack of bend is the kind of limitation that could see him fall. Nevertheless, he’s close to a first round lock.
- Donovan Ezeiruaku (EDGE) to Detroit Lions
Dan Campbell is gonna do Dan Campbell things here, and that’s usually all about personality. And Donovan Ezeiruaku is the perfect Dan Campbell fit. A hard-working leader he also had excellent production at Boston College and has the work ethic to convert that to the NFL. A small, speed rusher, he’d be a great complement to Aidan Hutchinson. It’s also not out of the question that the Lions improve their O-line to elevate their run game and give Jared Goff more time. I wouldn’t even be surprised to see Detroit trade down with a QB-needy team.
- Matthew Golden (WR) to Washington Commanders
I think the Commanders probably select an edge rusher, but Matthew Golden will definitely go somewhere in the first round and if he gets out of the top 20, I expect someone to trade up to get him. Maybe Washington will select him to add to older starters Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin? Golden is a speed receiver who has risen up draft boards after a showy combine. But is that enough? I think not. Ultimately, if I’m the Washington brass, I’m going for James Pearce. The Commanders had no edge pressure last season and that needs to change.
- Malaki Starks (S) to Buffalo Bills
I still think the history of safeties slipping hurts Malaki Starks’s chances of making the first round, but the bookies disagree. And I will concede he is more likely than not to go somewhere on Night 1. Starks is athletic with great reads and should improve the Bills’ awful run defense. While I think defensive tackle is the greater need, there’s no one in this range that makes sense. So, they could reach for a DT, trade down with a QB-needy team, or take a stud like Starks then get their DT on Day 2, as that’s a very deep position. Lastly, don’t discount cornerback as a need.
- Grey Zabel (OL) to Kansas City Chiefs
This feels like a fantastic trade back spot for the Chiefs, with the Browns and Giants likely battling to grab Jaxson Dart at the back-end of the first round to earn that fifth year option. Meanwhile, the Chiefs badly need to improve their protection for Patrick Mahomes. I’ve been saying this for years and I really hope it finally happens in 2025. Grey Zabel isn’t the perfect fit though. His short arms may limit him at tackle. But he’s looking more and more like a first round lock and I had to include him over Josh Conerly, whose combine kind of made up for a bad Senior Bowl.
- James Pearce Jr (EDGE) to Philadelphia Eagles
James Pearce is a true first round talent, but character issues could see him fall to Day 2. I’m backing the Eagles to end his fall though, assuming they don’t trade back. Philly needs a Josh Sweat replacement and it’s well in their wheelhouse to attack the trenches in the early rounds. Pearce is an elite rusher who would likely be a Top 16 pick if not for significant off-the-field problems that have some teams removing him from their boards. I also wanted to note Jaxson Dart, who won’t go to the Eagles but could easily go with this pick. Also don’t discount O-line, as Lane Johnson can’t have too many years left and the Eagles are good future planners.
