The combine is over, and the draft rumor mill has been working overtime! So it’s time for another NFL Mock Draft. I’ve ranked in the Top 12 for NFL draft accuracy on FantasyPros in three of the last four years so I hope these articles will give you an idea of what to expect and help you get to know some of the big fantasy rookies you’ll be drafting this year. If you have any questions, comment below plus I answer all questions on Instagram @thefantasyfirstdown and Twitter @FantasyFirstDwn. You can find the full mock draft at ffdfantasyfootball.com and my full rundown of the whole first round on my Youtube channel.
- Cam Ward (QB) to Tennessee Titans
There’s a lot of buzz regarding the Titans trading with the Giants. While Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter are superior talents, I can’t imagine Tennessee giving up the opportunity for a franchise quarterback. The question is, who? Shadeur Sanders isn’t universally loved, but he is accurate, smart and comes from a reliable NFL bloodline. Cam Ward has more upside though, as an athlete who struggles with his reads but is more likely to turn into an elite starter. The bookies have Ward at -270. But will it be to Tennessee?
- Abdul Carter (EDGE) to Cleveland Browns
The Browns have used seven different quarterbacks in the last two years, and none have been effective. I think with Deshaun Watson out for 2025 at least, Cleveland should go with a quarterback here. There are two top QB prospects in this draft class so I’d be taking whichever is available at this pick. But there’s a lot of buzz about Deion Sanders blocking a move to Cleveland for his son, and Shadeur isn’t exactly a clean prospect. For that reason, I expect they go against need and select a Myles Garrett replacement in elite edge rusher Abdul Carter.
- Shadeur Sanders (QB) to New York Giants
The Giants badly need a quarterback, and while I think the odds of Shadeur Sanders or Cam Ward falling to them isn’t great, there is a growing sentiment that Abdul Carter will go in the top two, probably to the Browns but maybe even to the Titans. That leaves the Giants with one of the star quarterbacks in this class. Ward is likely their preference, but Sanders is a viable alternative. A smart, confident and accurate passer, Sanders is a love/hate prospect who is complicated by his dad getting involved, but Jordan Ranaan claims the Giants like him.
- Travis Hunter (CB/WR) to New England Patriots
The Patriots have needs across the board and could go in a number of directions: Arguably their greatest need is the O-line which could lead them to select Will Campbell. But for me, this is too early for a player with his limitations. Charlie Campbell has reported they love Abdul Carter but it seems highly unlikely he slides this far given the recent hype around him. Assuming two quarterbacks go in the first three picks, a fantastic consolation prize comes to them in Travis Hunter. Hunter is an elite two-way player I expect will focus on CB with occasional WR snaps.
- Will Johnson (CB) to Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have a surprising range of needs along the O-line and on the defensive side of the ball. There’s buzz they’re interested in Kelvin Banks and Will Campbell on the offensive line but this feels early for me. Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant are both viable options, but this is a very deep draft for defensive linemen, and they can be confident a good option will fall to the second round. That leaves Will Johnson, who is far and above the best pure cornerback in this draft. The Michigan alum is long and fast, though he takes too many risks.
- Tetairoa McMillan (WR) to Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders would love to find their franchise quarterback, but some unnecessary late-season wins have taken them out of contention for the top two QBs. At this stage, I think quarterback is more likely a day two pick. While the Raiders badly need cornerback help, Will Johnson was taken from under their noses. Tetairoa McMillan is a great consolation prize though, and finally gives the Raiders a big bodied receiver to act as the WR1 in conjunction with Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers. Ashton Jeanty is an alternative, though it’s pretty early for him.
- Kenneth Grant (DT) to New York Jets
The Jets have an array of needs for their new head coach. Given his history as a DC, I anticipate building a strong defense will be the priority. Finding an elite defensive tackle to place beside Quinnen Williams should be a priority. Mason Graham is the bigger name but his Wolverines teammate is favored by scouts and team personnel. Kenneth Grant is more of a run defender and provides the perfect complement to Williams. If Grant is unavailable, there’s a good chance someone like Will Johnson or Tetairoa McMillan is. Worst case scenario, the Jets can trade down.
- Mykel Williams (EDGE) to Carolina Panthers
With Bryce Young finally starting to look like the franchise quarterback the Panthers drafted him to be, they can turn to rebuilding their defense. Fortunately for Carolina’s brass, edge, DT and CB are the three positions of strength at this point in the draft. While the two Michigan tackles would be good options to pair with Derrick Brown, the Panthers are badly lacking in edge pressure since the departure of Brian Burns. Abdul Carter would be the ideal pick, but Mykel Williams is a strong alternative. He’s a very safe pick and would make sense for the rebuild.
- Jalon Walker (EDGE) to New Orleans Saints
While the Saints have many holes, I think defense is a logical place to start based on the positions of strength at the top-end of this draft. While they’d love a Will Johnson, or Tetairoa McMillan to fall, I think it’s most likely they ultimately attack the defensive line. There’s a good chance at least one of Mykel Williams, Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham falls to this spot and they’ll likely be preferenced in that order. But I think this is ultimately too early for Graham, so I’m backing the Saints to grab an edge rusher in Jalon Walker, though others are possible.
- Will Campbell (OT) to Chicago Bears
The Bears attempted to ease Caleb Williams’ transition into the NFL by providing him an array of elite targets. Unfortunately, his O-line and play-calling consistently let him down. The play-calling aspect will undoubtedly improve under Ben Johnson, so they can fix the remaining holes in the draft. Will Campbell’s short arms sent alarm bells through the combine, but he alleviated a lot of those fears with a solid showing in the drills. Even if Campbell turns out not to be an NFL tackle, he profiles as a very safe guard proposition. Kelvin Banks is the primary alternative.
- Kelvin Banks (OL) to San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers get a rare chance to pick early in the draft and I expect they’ll target one of their lines. If Grant or Williams falls, I expect that will be the pick. Otherwise, it’s a toss-up between speed rushers like Jalon Walker and Shemar Stewart or offensive line talent like Will Campbell and Kelvin Banks. With the 49ers struggling to maintain an effective run game for the first time in years, it’s time to bring in some young talent. Kelvin Banks is one of the two top O-linemen in this draft. He’s not an elite prospect like many early OL of late, but he’s the best bet here.
- Ashton Jeanty (RB) to Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have hit the accidental (or intentional?) tank button by hiring the awful Brian Schottenheimer as HC. Their defense has a few minor holes but I think Dak Prescott will be heard here, with the offense surely getting a major upgrade on days 2 and 3. There’s not obvious wide receiver pick here so assuming Tetairoa McMillan doesn’t fall, I favor the talent of Ashton Jeanty. Rico Dowdle was OK, but he’s a free agent and better suited to a backup role. Jeanty is an every down weapon and the first step in returning to the days of Zeke et al.
- Mason Graham (DT) to Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins desperately need to protect Tua Tagovailoa better. As an added bonus, better run blocking would help kick-start their previously elite run game that struggled at times last year. But the two stud offensive linemen are off the board. I considered mocking them Tyler Booker here again, or even Armand Membou, who is rising after a great combine. But I’m going to switch to their other need and give them Mason Graham, who has fallen a little due to his bad body shape. Ultimately, it’s hard to see him falling much further than this despite concerns.
- Tyler Warren (TE) to Indianapolis Colts
The Colts secondary needs a significant upheaval, as it arguably cost them a playoff berth last season. The firing of Gus Bradley was the biggest and best step in the process, but they still need a lot more talent on the back end. This class has some elite safeties and I wouldn’t discount the possibility of them taking Nick Emmonwori or Malaki Starks. Cornerback also isn’t out of the question. But the Colts have struggled at tight end for years, and they can make an immediate change here with solid blocker and receiving weapon, Tyler Warren.
- Shemar Stewart (EDGE) to Atlanta Falcons
Charlie Campbell reported that the Falcons are targeting an edge rusher either here or with a trade back. Jihaad Campbell or a defensive lineman also isn’t out of the question. This isn’t a surprise as I’ve mocked them an edge rusher the last two years and by all reports, they would have taken Laiatu Latu last year if not for their Michael Penix adoration. Mykel Williams or Jalon Walker would be the ideal pick here but they’re rising prospects. Shemar Stewart could easily also be gone by here given his strong combine, but his 2024 production may see him fall.
- Walter Nolen (DT) to Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals need help on both lines, though I expect them to lean D-line given the relative strength of the two positions. A trade down is also on the cards (no pun intended) as they will likely have a lot of defensive linemen available at this point. Heck, it wouldn’t be out of the question for Mason Graham to fall into the mid teens based on recent reports. Of the available options here, I’m leaning Walter Nolen, as there’s no other screaming value. Nolen is very much a love/hate prospect who could go anywhere between here and early Day 2.
- Nick Emmanwori (S) to Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have a lot of high-end talent, but they’ve also had a heap of busts out of high draft picks. This has led to a roster with an alarming number of holes while a lot of money is committed to stars like Joe Burrow. I assumed that would mean the Bengals would let go of Tee Higgins, and that’s not the case. The Bengals therefore will likely revert to an interior lineman (offensive or defensive) or, in this case, the best player available. That’s Nick Emmanwori, an elite safety prospect. Safeties rarely go this early, but they rarely have his size/skill combination.
- Tyler Booker (G) to Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks got badly let down by their O-line last season, so they badly need to improve the interior. Reports suggest they like Kelvin Banks, but it’s unlikely he falls this far. But in this case, Tyler Booker has. It’s hard to project Booker’s landing spot as he’s an elite player at a non-premium position. But this fit feels perfect. It’s also possible that Seattle beefs up its defense with an edge rusher or a linebacker like Jihaad Campbell. In a draft class so deep in defensive linemen though, I can imagine them targeting the edge on Day 2. Armand Membou is also an option.
- Jihaad Campbell (LB) to Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is another Charlie Campbell pull, as he recently reported that the Buccaneers love ‘Bama linebacker Jihaad Campbell. ILB is typically an undervalued position in the draft but Campbell is an exceptional talent highly likely to go in the first round. The Buccaneers need to replace Lavonte David, who is aging out, so this pick makes perfect sense. I could also see Tampa Bay grabbing an edge rusher after Joe Tryon-Shoyinka’s disappointing output since his 2021 1st round selection. Jalon Walker would be a good fit if he falls this far, which he may.
- Colston Loveland (TE) to Denver Broncos
The Broncos are fortunate to have few high-value needs after finally finding a franchise quarterback in Bo Nix. I’m in the minority in thinking that Sean Payton is satisfied with Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims and Devaughn Vele as WR depth alongside Courtland Sutton. But Sean Payton lacks an offensive X-Factor, and that can be Colston Loveland. A mismatch weapon who is a sufficient blocker, Tony Pauline has reported that some teams even view Loveland as a Top 12 prospect, above Tyler Warren. The Broncos will likely otherwise attack the back seven of their defense.
- Emeka Egbuka (WR) to Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers once again made the playoffs with a mediocre roster, much to the chagrin of their fan base, who would apparently prefer a rockier ride with less success. Their greatest hole is at quarterback, but they’re never getting the top two guys and there isn’t another first round talent, though Jaxson Dart is rising. Surely they won’t make the Kenny Pickett mistake again? Meanwhile, owner Art Rooney II has suggested the team needs to add another wide receiver and I agree. Emeka Egbuka has risen above Luther Burden according to many team sources.
- Azareye’h Thomas (CB) to Los Angeles Chargers
There is a natural temptation to mock the Chargers offensive help. They do indeed have a big hole at WR3, though I think that can be easily filled in free agency. Likewise, I think Will Dissly is sufficient at tight end and Jim Harbaugh has shown no intent to spend up at running back. Ashton Jeanty falling would likely change that though. This leaves us with the defense. I have no idea which defensive tackle they would target, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they attacked their line. But I think Azareye’h Thomas is better value, as they can grab a DT on Day 2.
- Benjamin Morrison (CB) to Green Bay Packers
The Packers have holes along the defensive line, but I feel they can target them on Day 2. There’s a bit of secondary talent that will likely go in this region and I think it makes more sense for the Packers to get on board. Benjamin Morrison is a high upside pick that could elevate the Green Bay secondary. Though I must admit, I could also see them grabbing up Luther Burden or Emeka Egbuka if they’re available here. Center also isn’t out of the question, though I struggle to see the pick that makes sense in this range. Finally, don’t discount Jahdae Barron.
- Derrick Harmon (DT) to Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings’ needs conveniently match what’s likely available late in the first round. It will ultimately depend what falls to them on the night. Cornerback is a natural fit, but I’m not sure the right player is here for them in the secondary. Jahdae Barron is a strong talent, but he doesn’t really fit their need for an outside CB. There are half a dozen defensive tackles who could reasonably be taken in this range. So, a trade back is an option. But in this mock, I have them taking Derrick Harmon. Originally looking like a Day 2 pick, a strong combine has thrust him into the Day 1 chat.
- Jordan Burch (DT) to Houston Texans
The Texans have few glaring needs, making them easier to project. O-line also isn’t the greatest value at this point, but if the right guy falls, I could imagine them going in that direction too. But their biggest issue is that Stefon Diggs is a UFA and Tank Dell is likely missing 2025. But the trade for Christian Kirk makes that less of a priority now. Defensive tackle is hence the obvious pick, even though it would arguably be easier for them to address this in the second round. So I’ve given the Texans back my 1.0 prediction, Jordan Burch. He’s on the 1st/2nd round bubble.
- Armand Membou (OT) to Los Angeles Rams
The Rams don’t lack needs, but it’s hard to see them fulfilling them if the draft falls this way. They could go defensive and grab a cornerback or, if he falls, Jihaad Campbell. But they’ve traditionally had success finding Day 2/3 value at these positions. For that reason, I could also see them replacing either the ailing Tyler Higbee or the aging Cooper Kupp. But Armand Membou has fallen shockingly far in this mock. After an elite combine performance, Membou is a bookies favorite to be the first OL off the board. I’m not buying that. I expect a fall, but maybe not this far.
- Josh Simmons (OL) to Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are incredibly adept at finding value in the draft, regularly picking whichever player falls. That makes them very hard to predict, though they haven’t been quite as successful in recent years. At this spot, they could go in a number of directions. A cornerback like Jahdae Barron or Sharon Revel would improve their faltering secondary, but ultimately, I favor protecting and supporting their greatest asset, Lamar Jackson. Josh Simmons is recovering from an ACL injury which is hurting his draft stock, placing him squarely on the 1st/2nd round bubble.
- Jack Sawyer (EDGE) to Detroit Lions
The Lions draft on personality and making them a difficult team to project. I don’t love the value of an interior offensive lineman here, despite the need, and I think the Lions are smarter than that. But they took cornerbacks last year, so it’s unlikely they go that way again unless there’s a screaming value. So it’s an edge rusher in this mock. Jack Sawyer is a physical, tough player who would perfectly fit the Detroit culture. He doesn’t have the natural burst and instincts of James Pearce or Mike Green, but he’s a far more likely pick for Dan Campbell and the Lions.
- James Pearce Jr (EDGE) to Washington Commanders
The Commanders’ greatest need remains their edge rush. For years, their interior has sandpapered over this weakness but this season they surely must improve. There’s a heap of defensive linemen available in this draft and I’m unsure if they really love any enough to use this pick, when they could grab a solid talent in the second round. But with Deebo Samuel’s arrival negating the need for a wide receiver, I’m backing them to take a risk on James Pearce. Pearce is an explosive pass rusher who blitzed the combine but has major character concerns.
- Alfred Collins (DT) to Buffalo Bills
The Bills have few desperate needs and will likely take best player available among their weaknesses. While they struggled with their wide receivers last season, I feel their intentional rotation was more game plan than talent related, and I doubt they go to that well again. They really need to get better against the run though. So, I’m mocking them a big, bad run stuffer in Alfred Collins. Along with a heap of 1st/2nd round bubble players, Collins could easily go in this range or fall due to excessive supply. Also, don’t discount the possibility of some secondary help.
- Donovan Jackson (OL) to Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs always seem to have needs in the draft, then they just keep making the Super Bowl. This year, they once again need help on both lines while a wide receiver would be helpful with all WRs but Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice free agents. KC have been struggling to protect Patrick Mahomes for some time now and it’s time they tried harder. Trading away Joe Thuney for a bag of crisps isn’t exactly heading the right way. Surely, they need to improve their O-line and Donovan Jackson would certainly do that. Likely a guard, he could shift outside if necessary.
- Mike Green (EDGE) to Philadelphia Eagles
Super Bowl winners rarely have major holes to fill and that’s certainly true of the Eagles. Their last four picks have been on the defense and I expect, given their offensive success of late, they’ll continue trying to strengthen what was previously a weakness. This is ultimately a BPA pick and I’m far from confident as to which of the many 1st/2nd round bubble players Philly will go with. Mike Green has some significant character concerns, but the Eagles can afford to take the risk. Green would replace the retiring Brandon Graham and FA Josh Sweat.
