Welcome to Bet the Farm, Razzball’s weekly NFL wagering contest. We’re back for our second season and ready to take you on over the course of 17 weeks of NFL play. For those new to the game, here are the rules:
- You start with $1,000 in contest money to make wagers with. You may join in any week.
- You can wager on the spread or Over/Under for any NFL game, so long as your pick is made by kickoff of that game. The Yahoo Sports Odds page is a good place to get betting lines: you may use the best line you find available when you make your post, but revisions to wagers are not allowed.
- Your wager must be in an increment of $10.
- You must beat the House: Therefore, you only receive 90% of your wager for a win ($9 on a $10 bet), but lose 100% of your wager on a loss.
- Your wager may be any amount between $10 and your full bankroll.
- New this year: If you lose your entire bankroll, you are allowed a re-buy for another $1,000. Unlimited re-buys are available.
- New this year: Bet the Farm staff will keep track of the full leaderboard for all participants. However, any player who has taken a re-buy will be listed below all players who have not taken a re-buy – even those with lower current balances. It’s always better to not lose all your money. Players with two re-buys will be listed below those with one re-buy, and so on.
Standings After Week 6:
So, I felt really bad about my -$55 showing last week until I realized that actually tied me for the fourth best showing on the week! Of 23 Week 6 participants, only PoPo Gigio and Euroalien showed positive tallies. Even Cray gave up some ground at the top of the standings, though he still joins Cram It, and CWebb as the only gamblers to play every week of the season and show a positive tally (Honorable mention to the aforementioned PoPo Gigio who only missed Week 1 and sits in third place overall).
Josh Carey’s Picks
Bankroll: $888 (Last week: -$55)
Record 13-16-1 (Last week: 2-3-0)
Locks: 2-3-1 (Last week: 0-1-0)
Three losing weeks in a row? Surely somebody out there will be making sarcastic comments about my mother shortly. I’m still above the average though, so most of you would do well to heed my advice…
$60 Arizona +7 vs. Seattle (LOCK OF THE WEEK): Pop quiz: Name Arizona’s record at home this season. The correct answer is “2-0.” Seattle’s point differential in three games on the road? Plus-2. Not average, total. That includes a pretty miraculous comeback against Houston (20 unanswered second half points) and less-than inspiring results against Carolina and Indy (i.e. not the Denvers and New Orleanses of the world). Thursday Night games play to the home team as a general rule anyways, so there’s really no reason not to take the Cardinals with the touchdown in what should be a pretty low-scoring, hard-fought contest. Unless Carson Palmer literally throws it all away. Which is far more plausible than Newt Gingrich’s Moon Colony.
$40 San Diego -7.5 at Jacksonville: The computer loves this pick (Jeff Sagarin has the legitimate spread at SD -12.5) and it makes a lot of sense. San Diego is a solid, if not spectacular team, and the Jaguars are still as bad as they’ve been. Yes, they covered last week (for the first time this season), but they covered the largest point spread in NFL history. They still lost the actual game by 16 points. Their average margin of defeat is 21.3 points. Per game. This is a potentially historically bad NFL team and if Vegas is going to keep giving you single-digit spreads against them, you should take them to the bank.
$40 Baltimore +1 at Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh sucks. And yes, this means the Jets suck more for losing to them last week.
$40 Dallas +3 at Philadelphia and $30 OVER 55.5: You can argue all day if Nick Foles is an upgrade over Michael Vick but it’s probably as ridiculous as arguing whether Star Trek is better than Star Wars (although DS9 and TNG are better than the original trilogy, while all other Trek is only better than the prequels). No matter where you stand on the question, the end result is they’re pretty damn equal. That means more of the high-tempo Philly offense that leads to a lack of defense and plenty of opportunity for the other team to score. Hey now, that sounds quite a bit like this year’s Cowboys team! Except with Dallas having a bit more talent. A lack of DeMarco Murray and DeMarcus Ware means a closer game, but I’m still taking the better team to win.
$40 Minnesota at New York Giants UNDER 46.5: The Disaster Bowl between Eli Manning and Jay Cutler last week should have gone under, and I’m willing to put my money on it actually happening this week with Josh Freeman running an offense that will most likely consist of “Hey, another hand-off to Adrian Peterson!” Real exciting football there. Also, a recipe for a low-scoring snoozefest of a game.
$30 Kansas City -6.5 at Houston: If Matt Schaub is out, this spread is far too low. If Matt Schaub plays, this line is still really good. Things are a disaster in Houston right now. That makes them an excellent fade, even at home.
$20 Chicago PK at Washington: Just because.
Total wagered: $270.
Follow @josh_carey on Twitter. Just because.
Bankroll: $474 (-$191 last week)
Record: 8-17 (1-3 last week)
Locks: 1-5 (0-1 last week
I know we all come to the conclusion aloud that sometimes we can perform better at coaching or playing in the NFL than the real coaches or players, cursing and angrily waving a fist at the flat screen, only to silently decide that if we were ‘really’ out there, we would probably defecate and regurgitate our lunch all over our uniform. Then I came to a new conclusion Sunday: with all the puke and sh*t stains, I would still be able to hold onto a football snap (again, just hold onto it, nothing more) or call a running play to keep the clock running! I still can’t understand how the Packers didn’t cover, how the Seahawks gifted the Titans seven free points, and how the Saints still can’t manage a clock. At least I had Jacksonville for one winning tick on the chalkboard. Don’t worry, I thanked the 0-6 Jaguars while eating my turkey smothered in gravy, stuffing and cranberry sauce. Thank you history.
$80 San Francisco -4 (Lock) at Tennessee: Ryan Fitzpatrick with 171 yards passing, zero touchdown passes and 2 interceptions; Chris Johnson with 33 yards rushing; and the Titans somehow cover on the west coast. Should have been two locks in a row. Until Tennessee removes the turnover Czar from playing quarterback, they can’t be trusted to score more than one TD a game. The west coast is coming east for revenge. Niners 27 Titans 13.
$60 Dallas +2.5 at Philadelphia: Both teams are tied atop the division at 3-3 making this game as big as any early on in the season. This line would be closer to being in Dallas’ favour if not for a few De-Day injuries from last week; running back DeMarco Murray is probably out and defensive lineman DeMarcus Ware is definitely out. While these two injuries do have an impact, I feel the dings won’t have too much impact on the result. The Eagles’ defense is one of the most porous in the league and will have all they can handle with Tony Romo; they just gave up 273 yards and two touchdowns to rookie Mike Glennon. While the Dallas defense will have similar trouble handling the fast paced Eagles attack, I think they will fool them a few times and slow them down just enough to grab the victory. A team that can definitely win, plus the points, makes this a de-brainer bet. Cowboys 27 Eagles 24.
$40 New England -4 at New York: The Patriots owned the Jets during the regular season these last few years; last time the Jets beat New England during the regular season was seven games ago in 2010. Now that the Pats have Stevan Ridley on track, the young receivers in line, and Rob Gronkowski ready for a return, the Jets will have all they can handle come Sunday. Patriots 24 Jets 13.
$20 Indianapolis +6.5 vs. Denver: Where to begin… there comes a time during the passionate game of fantasy football where you catch yourself cheering for players playing against your beloved team. Then there comes a time where you cheer for your favourite player (no homo) somehow playing against said beloved team. Then there comes a time when you say “screw it, I’m going to this game!” Only thing I regret is that my bankroll is so abysmal I’ll need to settle for the coke and popcorn combo instead of the beer and wings while at Lucas Oil. Both teams had disappointing games last week – Colts with a Monday night loss and the Broncos with a fairly close win against the lowly Jags – leading to believe in the notion of the look-ahead-game. You will be previewed to death by the time this game kicks off Sunday night so I won’t lecture you on the finer points of revenge vs. validation. I will, however, say this: I hope my previous three bets hit so I can spend my money on a post game St. Elmo’s steak. Not that this game needs anymore excitement, but my rule is that I bet on every game I go to. So, give me the Colts, at home, as dogs, versus their old deity. Luck 31 Peyton 28.
Total Wagered: $200