Howdy partners! This here is Bet the Farm, the new gambling post for y’all whose wants to make some cashy money from these here NFL games they gonna be playing this here weekend. In fact, yous alls can play along right here in this here comments section. It easy, too!

Of course, the Old West farmer impression gets old after about three sentences. So let’s talk about what we’re going to be doing here. This series is a betting simulation. I’m going to start out with a pretend budget of $1,000 to bet on the NFL with this season (and next week, I’ll be joined by a special guest who I’ll compete with for the rest of the year… ooh intrigue!) targeting the spread or over/under on any game. Any bet in $10 increments up to the full $1,000 is allowed. Get it right, we add $9 to the total (that’s right, you’ve got to beat the rake, and we’re not talking about the one your wife is going to try to get you to use this weekend when you just want to watch Russell Wilson‘s debut). Get it wrong, you lose $10.  If it’s a push, your total stays the same. If you play along in the comments and track your total all year, I’ll admire you in the same way I admire Jay Leno (the man just keeps at it, no matter what). Do that and beat me? I’ll admire you the same way I admire Gus Johnson (dude is awesome). So, let’s get to the Week One picks.

Starting Budget: $1,000.

$30 Buffalo +3 at New York Jets: The first pick of the year and I already want to change the rules of my own game, since the Bills are going to take this game outright and I’d love to bet the moneyline. Aaron Rodgers says calling a quarterback a game manager is an insult. Well, what Mark Sanchez does on the football field is an insult to my eyes and calling him a game manager is too generous. I’d tell Jets fans to hope he gets benched, but the other option is Tim Tebow, who is just… no. The point here is the Jets offense is bad. Like 9th-season X-Files bad. And the addition of Mario Williams  actually makes the Buffalo defense a little freightening. Call the locksmith cause this is my lock of the week.

$10 Tampa Bay +2.5 vs. Carolina: Home underdogs are better than a Sports Illustrated with Kate Upton on the cover. Especially when the road team is overrated based on the overachieving rookie year of their quarterback (who still only has one proven target to throw towards). Josh Freeman is poised for a bounce-back season now with Vincent Jackson downfield and Doug Martin behind him. Maybe the Bucs don’t win, but they should keep it close enough to cover.

$10 Pittsburgh +1 at Denver and $10 Pit/Den UNDER 44.5:  What’s lost in all the Peyton Manning brouhaha is that both these teams have very elite defenses, even if James Harrison isn’t in the lineup for the Steelers. That makes the under even more likely than your teenaged daughter wanting to go see the new Twilight movie in November (and yes, I just had to put “Twilight” into Google to verify that, so now my future searches are going to be far too sparkly and depressing). As for the spread itself, home field is generally worth three points, so Vegas is telling you Pittsburgh is a better team than Denver on a neutral field. Since I think they’re even overrating the Broncos with this line, I’ll take the free point and watch the Steelers stroll to an outright victory.

Total wagered: $60.

My philosophy is to be a little more cautious early on in the season. You remember what happened when the characters in Cloverfield decided it was a smart idea to walk through the tunnels, right? So while I was considering San Diego +1 at Oakland, the Charger injuries and wide receiver changes scared me off in the end. The Chiefs, Browns, and Titans are the only other home underdogs, but each is facing a potentially elite team. I’m not ready to put a wager on Cleveland +9.5 vs. Philadelphia, but I certainly won’t argue with you if you do.

So jump in with your picks in the comments and see if you can do better than me (and my upcoming competitor) as the season goes on. Or just rip on my picks. Either’s good.

  1. longbeachyo says:
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    Are you going to keep a running tally for the year? And by chance do you have your record for last year if, you did it?

    • Josh Carey

      Josh Carey says:
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      @longbeachyo, Yup, the whole idea is to see if I can actually beat the rake over the course of the entire year. So both myself and my forthcoming competitor (big surprise reveal next week!) will be tracking the year-long tallies.

      I didn’t do this type of exercise last year, but what I did do was play along on another site where you picked your top five games ATS each week. My record in the regular season doing that was 50-32-3.

      • longbeachyo says:
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        @Josh Carey, Nice, I’ll make sure to check your picks when I go to vegas for week 4!

  2. longbeachyo says:
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    I guess I should read the rules…
    -$10 on Min/Jac over 39
    -$30 on Atl to cover 2.5 vs KC
    -$10 on Ari +2.5 vs Sea
    -$20 on Buf +3 at NYJ

  3. bmore greg says:
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    ARI +3 – $30. This line moved 4 points from ARI -1 which means the public is putting their money on SEA. And since the public sucks at what they do, I’ll take the Cards based on that info alone.

    MIN/JAX under 38 – $30. If this game goes to 20-17 it would be considered a barn-burner so I’ll take the under all day long.

    BUF/NYJ under 38.5 – $30. Another snooze-fest and the half point is on my side. This ones a lock!!!

  4. TheTinDoor

    TheTinDoor says:
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    I like Houston -12 over Miami…Houston at home, Tannehill 1st start. This line opened at -8 or so, HUGE value if you bet this on Monday

    Seattle -2.5 over Arizona

    Det/StL over 45.5

    • TheTinDoor

      TheTinDoor says:
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      @TheTinDoor, $50 on each game

  5. tyler says:
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    i hate to be that guy, but considering the rules, and some understanding of “pot odds” i don’t see how i don’t bet it all, and then work with +900 profit form this week on, i will change the wger, if the rules get changed, but in the meantime:
    atlanta -2.5 for 1000
    kc is good, but cassel ain’t, plus this is the year of the ryan, just ask buddy and the stand in for the wolverine as retiree.

    • Josh Carey

      Josh Carey says:
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      @tyler, The rules certainly allow this. They’re specifically designed so that anybody can show up at any point in the season and try to compete just by making larger bets.

      Of course, if you lose, you’ll be reduced to merely tracking your record (and not your winnings) over the course of the season and forever be the guy who got completely knocked out after one week of Bet the Farm. So, if you’re not willing to risk the notoriety, you can certainly revise the bet (though the rules do indeed allow it).

  6. Young92782 says:
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    From whence shall we acquire the official spreads and over/unders?

    • Young92782 says:
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      Nevermind, I’m just using what is on Yahoo (BOVADA.net)…

      Current budget: $1000

      -$10 – on Rams (+8) @ Detroit; call me crazy, but I got a feeling…
      -$20 – on SanFran (+5) @ Green Bay
      -$20 – on Buffalo (+3) @ NYJets

      Total = $50

      • Young92782 says:
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        I’m adding to this,

        -$20 – under 49.5 Washington @ New Orleans
        -$20 – over 47 New England @ Tennessee
        -$30 – on Chicago (-10) to cover vs. Indianapolis

        Total = $120

      • Josh Carey

        Josh Carey says:
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        @Young92782, Yahoo’s odds page is a good place to go for various lines.

  7. barker says:
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    last night i drunkenly took a 50 dollar bet that the bills would beat the jets — everyone called me crazy — this makes me feel much better thank you over the internet friend

  8. Herald says:
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    I’m with Tyler.

    I’ll put 1000 on Houston (-13).

  9. Slamhole says:
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    Yo Yo Yo!

    I’ll take KC plus the 2.5 for $200, Alex

    Booyah!!!

  10. Hat Guy says:
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    Philly (-9.5) over Cleveland – The Browns are starting a 28 year old rookie, nothing more needs to be said.

    Buffalo (+3) over Jets – I live within radio signal of Buffalo sports talk radio and their intense optimism combined with the Jets anemic offence has won me over…at least for this week.

    Green Bay (-5) over San Francisco – Strong defences tend to change from year to year but a good offence seems to last. This could be the least amount of points the Packers give at Lambeau all year.

  11. shipshop says:
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    why razzball why?!?!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Why what?

  12. Texas17 says:
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    I would venture forward with

    100 on Det minus the 9
    100 on Pats minus the 5 1/2

  13. Jerkface says:
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    buffalo is your lock, eh? i would say stick to your day job, but instead i’ll say get a new day job.

Comments are closed.