IS THIS NOT WHAT YOU ALL WANTED? IS THIS NOT WHAT YOU ALL CAME FOR?? THE PREDICTIONS…ARE B O L D. BOLD.
The 2025 fantasy football season is upon us! We have takes galore between every article, podcast, and post you ingest. I feel honored and lucky every time anyone chooses to click on any piece of my content, given the variety of websites and media out there. Thank you for taking the time to specifically peruse my little piece of work, and hopefully, some good could come out of it. Most importantly, good luck with your collective fantasy seasons!
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1) Deebo Samuel Outscores Terry McLaurin
Terry McLaurin is coming off his best fantasy football season and just received a deserved extension. Deebo Samuel is coming off his worst fantasy football season and was dumped from the 49ers for a fifth-round pick.
Unfortunately, for McLaurin to lock down his extension, he had to hold out until mid-August. This resulted in him missing most of the offseason while Samuel practiced regularly and got into shape (reportedly). McLaurin posted a career-high in touchdowns last season with rookie QB Jayden Daniels. However, this career-best season would rank behind Deebo Samuel’s second-best fantasy season by points per game in 2023 (15.8 vs 16.2). McLaurin has never come close to Samuel’s best season in 2021 with 21.2 PPG through 16 games (WR3 overall behind Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams).
The narrative with Samuel is his inconsistency and injuries (which beget the inconsistency). However, one of the reasons Samuel missed time last year was a bout of pneumonia in Week 3. Samuel had a quality 164 yards on 19 targets in the two weeks prior, with a touchdown on the ground. He looked good…then got sick (I can forgive), and then suffered pestering rib and calf injuries later on (red flags).
McLaurin is the much safer pick due to his history as an ironman. He has not missed a game since 2020, while Samuel has missed nine games in this span and 10 games the previous season. Nevertheless, Samuel is the better pick at his cost two rounds later than McLaurin due to his ability to operate as a rusher and receiver on a team with a backfield in flux. Samuel should be more involved as a rusher this season, playing next to the best quarterback of his career, who is also one of the league’s top rushing quarterbacks.
2) Brandon Aiyuk Leads 49ers WRs in Scoring After Activation
The 49ers’ wide receiver room is much different at the top to start this season. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk were the Week 1 starters in 2024. Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings are the starters for Week 1 this year. Samuel is out of town, while Aiyuk is recovering from a torn ACL/MCL. The reports on Aiyuk are positive thus far, and his tentative return date is around Week 6.
Aiyuk suffered a significant knee injury. This is a very fair reason for his average draft position to remain around pick 100; however, he is a fantastic bet at this cost. Pearsall is a 2024 first-round pick, and Jauan Jennings broke out last year, but neither profiles as an alpha receiver.
Brandon Aiyuk was elite in the season before his injury with 1342 yards and seven touchdowns on 105 targets (12.9 yards/target). He is unlikely to repeat that season (on a per-game basis) in 2025, but he could produce nonetheless. Aiyuk injured his knee in mid-October, while T.J. Hockenson suffered a similar injury two months later in the year. Hockenson returned in Week 9 of 2024 and did not lose much of a step. He posted a good 22% target rate per route and 1.61 yards per route.
Aiyuk is only 27 years old and playing the first season of his career without Deebo Samuel. We have never seen him post a fantasy WR1 season, but he has the talent to achieve this at full strength. Between Christian McCaffrey’s fragile body and Jauan Jennings’ trade demands, we could see the 49ers have to rely on their former first-round pick more than ever.
3) Chris Rodriguez Outscores Jacory Croskey-Merritt
This one is controversial, but it is sound…at least logically. Jacory Croskey-Merritt (A.K.A. Bill) was drafted to the NFL at the same age as Chris Rodriguez, who is entering his third season. Bill is an interesting player with a fantastic cutting ability and quality burst. However, he does not have much going for him outside of training camp helium.
This entire offseason could be the Summer of Bill if you only scrolled Fantasy Twitter. Bill is the poster boy of rookie RB hype despite being a seventh-round pick who spent six seasons in college. He only produced 1242 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on 355 rushes (3.5 yards per carry) through four seasons (38 games) at Alabama State, an FCS school in the SWAC.
Meanwhile, Chris Rodriguez produced 1379 rushing yards and nine touchdowns in 13 games of his senior season at Kentucky alone. He was a dominant rusher in the SEC throughout his career with 3644 yards and 32 touchdowns on 592 carries (6.2 yards per carry) through 45 games.
Bill had a fantastic season with the New Mexico Lobos as a super senior in 2023, yet Eli Sanders had a comparable year in 2024. This could indicate that the offensive environment in recent years has been very beneficial for rushing.
2023 Bill: 189 attempts, 1190 rushing yards, 6.3 yards per carry, and 17 touchdowns
2024 Eli Sanders: 147 attempts, 1063 rushing yards, 7.2 yards per carry, and nine touchdowns
Bill did this while a year older than Sanders, who is very likely to be undrafted in 2026. Meanwhile, the Commanders have kept Chris Rodriguez around since 2023, and he has produced when granted opportunities (420 yards and four touchdowns on 86 carries). Rodriguez has size comparable to the departed Brian Robinson and offers an arguably better skillset as a rusher. Robinson was granted a longer rope after getting shot before his rookie season, then posting a good sophomore season.
Both Bill and Rodriguz lack the profile to operate on passing downs, which will hinder their upside (despite playing in one of the league’s best rushing environments). Nevertheless, you should not be drafting Bill at his new top-100 ADP. Rodriguez is not a great pick, but at his cost late in drafts, why not take a shot?
4) Omarion Hampton finishes as a top-8 fantasy RB
Omarion Hampton is one of eight running backs drafted in the first round since 2019. Teams do not regularly select RBs early anymore. When they do, they are sure about them.
The “worst” RB in this span is Clyde Edwards-Helaire in 2019, and he was drafted with the last pick of the round. Regardless, he posted 1100 yards and five touchdowns in 13 games! The Chiefs fed their first-round pick. Most teams drafting RBs this high plan on feeding them.
The common narrative with Hampton is that Najee Harris will take touches due to his history as a workhorse and Greg Roman’s tendency to use committee backfields. Unfortunately, Harris suffered a “superficial” eye injury and missed all of July and August. Also, Roman has not had a running back this well-rounded since Frank Gore. It is also possible that Omarion Hampton will wind up as good, if not better, than Gore (but that is a conversation for another time).
Committee backfields are common throughout the league, and the general fear is overblown. Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, and Derrick Henry were all in “committees” last year. They were also the three best fantasy RBs, meaning Hampton has a low bar to cross. If he plays just 60% of the offensive snaps weekly, he will qualify among the league’s leaders at the position. Hampton is a strong rusher and a good receiving back. Outside of rest, there is no reason for Harris (who could not outplay Jaylen Warren) to spell him on drives.
5) Tucker Kraft Flirts With a Top-5 Fantasy TE Season (in half-PPR)
The Packers’ WR room is transitioning this season. Christian Watson tore his ACL in December, and now, Jayden Reed’s foot is broken. Matthew Golden does not project as an elite target-earner, and Dontayvion Wicks does not have hands.
Romeo Doubs is healthy and locked in as the WR2, but he is just alright. This does not mean that a tight end will eat by default in an uncertain receiving room. However, Tucker Kraft could be good enough to benefit. He had a mini-breakout in 2024. Kraft hauled in 707 yards and 50 catches on 70 targets with seven touchdowns.
Kraft is not George Kittle, but he has a similar playing style. Kraft was first in average YAC last season (9.4) by a wide margin over the second-place Kittle (6.9). He posted the fifth-highest yards per route run last year among his position and was the TE10 in points per game in half-PPR. Seeing a jump to the top-5 is reasonable if Reed misses time and Golden is more of a field stretcher than an alpha WR.
6) Drake London Leads the NFL in Targets
Drake London was third in targets last season and had the fewest amount of routes run among the top-15 in total targets. He had four more targets than Justin Jefferson despite 104 fewer routes, and just 17 fewer targets than the league-leading Ja’Marr Chase despite 237 fewer routes!
London is an elite target-earner (first in targets per route among eligible WR in 2024) and plays on an offense with a thin receiving room. Darnell Mooney is good, but coming off a preseason shoulder injury. Behind him is pedestrian WR Ray-Ray McCloud and TE Kyle Pitts, who is never breaking out at this rate.
London earned 39 targets on Michael Penix’s 100 pass attempts through the final three games of 2024. Penix could be a mediocre QB, but if he targets London anywhere close to how he did to end last season, the sky is the limit for London’s 2025 season.
7) Brock Bowers Finishes Similarly to the Top WR Tier
The Raiders’ offense is revamped in 2025. The coaching staff features Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly. Ashton Jeanty replaces Zamir White. Geno Smith replaces Aidan O’Connell. Brock Bowers enters his second season with a fully healthy offseason (recovered from tightrope ankle surgery last offseason).
Bowers is arguably the best receiving TE prospect ever. His freshman season was historic, and he improved on it the next two seasons. He followed up his elite college career by stamping himself as a rookie with 112 receptions, 1194 receiving yards, and five touchdowns on 153 targets.
8) Ollie Gordon Cracks 200 Touches
Jaylen Wright is week-to-week after undergoing surgery in August, and De’Von Achane recently dealt with a calf injury. Achane is reportedly “100%” at the moment and preparing to play Sunday, but calf injuries are frustrating and easily reaggravated.
Rookie Ollie Gordon is entering the season at full strength after a strong offseason, where he looked more like his 2023 self. Gordon struggled at Oklahoma State last season and fell from the discussion of a top RB prospect to the sixth round. Miami chose to take him despite selecting Achane and Wright (who they traded up for in 2024) within the past two NFL drafts. Gordon has the size to carry a massive workload and can operate as a receiving back as well.
Gordon’s 2023 season was incredible. He produced 2062 yards and 22 touchdowns on 324 touches, earning him the Doak Walker Award for best college RB, along with Heisman votes. Doak Walker Award winners have a great track record in the NFL throughout the past decade. Melvin Gordon, Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, Kenneth Walker, and Bijan Robinson have all produced fantastic fantasy seasons. The only two award winners in this span who have not found much (or any) NFL success are D’Onta Foreman and Bryce Love, both of whom succumbed to lower-body injuries.
9) Caleb Williams Finishes as a Top-8 Fantasy QB
The Bears are loaded on offense. They spent the past two offseasons fixing an issue that has plagued them for over a decade. The last time anyone was in awe watching Chicago’s offense was the Jay Cutler era. The offense not only featured a gunslinger in Cutler, but an incredible set of weapons in Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, Matt Forte, and Martellus Bennett.
Unfortunately, Cutler was not a great quarterback due to his inability to protect the football. He would throw almost as many interceptions as touchdowns yearly, while also fumbling often. Cutler never passed for 4000 yards for the Bears, but did throw his fair share of touchdowns.
Ideally, Caleb Williams is the “prince that was promised” and can deliver as the strong-armed quarterback who protects the football and leads clean offensive drives. He has a fatal flaw of taking too many sacks (led the NFL last season). However, between the poor Bears’ offensive line in 2024, Williams’ rookie status, and a poorly meshed WR room, we could hope this reaches closer to below league average rather than league worst. Nevertheless, he produced four excellent fantasy weeks last season and managed to throw just six interceptions and a respectable 20 touchdowns.
The Bears added Rome Odunze last offseason, then extended veteran, Pro Bowl WR D.J. Moore. This offseason, they re-tooled the offensive line with Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson, then drafted both Colston Loveland and Luther Burden in the top-40 of the NFL Draft. The only position group “flaw” on offense around Caleb Williams is running back, where D’Andre Swift is set to reprise his role as the starter. Swift struggles with vision between the tackles, yet is great enough in open space (especially as a receiving back) to suffice as a weapon.
The best fantasy quarterbacks are either adept at rushing or surrounded by a plethora of playmakers. Williams will rely on his weapons more than his legs, but he does have the rushing ability necessary as a backup to take his fantasy season over the top. With potential offensive savant Ben Johnson coaching the roster and speedy weapons in all facets of offense, Caleb Williams could have a much easier time producing than in 2024.
10) Keon Coleman Finishes With At Least 1000 Yards and 10 Touchdowns
The Bills’ wide receiver room has been struggling to find an “alpha” since Stefon Diggs’ departure last offseason. Dalton Kincaid has failed to live up to his “wide receiver playing tight end” billing, and Khalil Shakir is just a good slot receiver. Shakir’s 2024 season was excellent by his standards (821 yards and four touchdowns on 100 targets), but this is probably the ceiling for a player of his caliber.
Keon Coleman was drafted as the first pick of the second round in 2024 to be the Bills’ X receiver/alpha dog. He showed signs of life early in the season and noticeably improved midseason. Through the first nine weeks of 2024, Coleman produced 417 yards and three touchdowns on 70 percent of the snaps and 36 targets. Sadly, Coleman suffered a wrist injury in Week 9 that kept him out until Week 15. He posted just 139 yards and one touchdown on 21 targets, despite an increase in snaps.
Coleman is entering the 2025 season with a healthy wrist and still has one of the league’s best quarterbacks throwing to him. There are concerns about Coleman’s speed and separation ability. Regardless, the beauty of a player like him is that he is capable of securing the football in tight quarters and has a quarterback who can fit the ball anywhere. If Coleman takes a step this season, there is a quality ceiling in fantasy football within an offense that only added career WR3 Josh Palmer to the fold.
For any questions and/or concerns, contact me on Twitter/X @RotoSurgeon.
