Where’s the Best Value for Picking the Upcoming NFL Division and Conference Champions? Placing a wager on the team you think will win any particular division or conference in the NFL is a bet that keeps on giving. Most of the time, these outcomes don’t materialize until well into the year. Sometimes they come down […]Please, blog, may I have some more?
The best blend of accurate and bold weekly projections for QB/RB/WR/TE + PK + Defensive Teams and IDP as well as a kick-ass DFS lineup optimizer and projections for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo!.
Well, we’ve reached the end of the (non-silly) Daily Fantasy Football season! I’d like to thank all of you, my loyal readers, for your weekly support. There will be DFS next week, but Week 17 cash games get really silly as so many teams end up resting starters and/or giving heavy volume to guys you’ve never heard of, which is why Week 16 really is the functional end of the non-silly Daily Fantasy Football season. I hope 2018 was profitable for you, and I hope this article helped. Now let’s get to the picks!Please, blog, may I have some more?
Man it would have been very interesting had yesterday’s Chargers-Chiefs game been on the main slate. That’s because Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce were all fantastic plays (particularly Keenan Allen, who Rudy’s projections had as the #1 WR on the slate by far), and would have all had significant ownership. You’d be looking at many lineups with a bad performance (Kelce and his 9.2) and a complete dud (the zero from Allen as he got hurt). You’d also be looking at a lot of lineups that picked either Jackson or Damien Williams, but not both, and the difference (27.3 for Williams, 16 for Jackson) would likely put the Jackson lineups drawing very thin, and possibly render them drawing dead if they played Allen and Kelce with that money. Alas, the game was on Thursday, so while it made for great TV, and made for an interesting showdown slate, only those who played the full Thursday-Monday slate care about it’s effects on a full slate. If you did play the Thursday-Monday slate, and you played Keenan Allen (and you did not play Jackson or Williams), I’d highly suggest pivoting your lineup to high-upside non-chalk plays to try to make up the lost ground.Please, blog, may I have some more?
If you saw the arguments this week on twitter, then you know there’s a question. Does defense matter for overall fantasy production? Most of the reason why people say defense doesn’t matter is because the way we measure defense is pretty terrible, and until we can measure true talent defense much better, the appearance of being a good or bad defense is super noisy and the amount of signal there is very very low. And in terms of how to predict the production for fantasy, teams vary what they do (and some teams do this randomly and are bad at it), and you would need to know what their scheme is and what player(s) they plan to exploit, and then the adjustments on the initial game plan come into play. If you have that information, first, please share it with me, and second, you’d probably be able to obliterate DFS (and Vegas, for that matter). But if you have that information, you’re not reading this article right now. So for those of you without it – let’s attack this slate with what we do know – namely, #NeverRun, offenses score points when they throw a lot, and one of the only ways we legitimately do see defenses mattering is in pass rush versus protection – it’s hard to score points when you’re being thrown down to the ground before you can throw a pass.Please, blog, may I have some more?
I’m going to take this moment to point out that the Rams and Chiefs are putting up bonkers-level offensive stats by throwing early and often, aggressively utilizing #AirRaid principles to get big plays on any down. It’s beautiful to watch. Meanwhile, the Raiders have committed $100 million guaranteed to a coach who laments the death of the fullback and is publically willing to talk about how he enjoys watching Wisconsin smash-mouth football (I’m not kidding – “I sit down and watch Wisconsin, and I feel like I’m breathing fresh air again”). Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes are shattering records and he wants to watch Wisconsin pound some 220 pound Ron Dayne wannabee up the middle for 4 yards a carry, 40 times a game.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Well, the first 3 weeks have just flown by and we’re almost done with Alvin Kamara as the solo RB on a team that throws 44 times a game, along with Michael Thomas ridiculous more TDs than incompletions. And even though you may think you know exactly what’s going to happen, projections like the ones here at Razzball will do a few things. First, they give you that base you need to make sure you’re not doing anything wildly stupid. Secondly, they give you options and other play ideas. You’ll notice that a sometimes I say that Rudy’s projections love a guy, and i’m not sure why but we go with it anyway. It’s because the projections take into account way more variables than our human brains can. The other thing that we’ve seen from the first 3 weeks, and it meshes with my philosophy – #NeverRun #AirRaid.
On to the picks…Please, blog, may I have some more?
Loyal readers of mine know that usually I have either some sort of nonsensical or comically long introductory paragraph, sometimes relevant (discussing a DFS concept/tactic/strategy that I think would be helpful for you to digest), often times entirely not relevant. However, in this case, I think the right course of action is to get right to the picks, because frankly, there’s a bunch of good cheap choices at RB this week. That’s because a few injuries to starting RBs after salaries were published caused some insanely good values to open up at the low end, and when combined with the same pair of elite RBs from last week in juicy matchups once again, we’re looking at some tough decision making. So let’s get right to it.
On to the picks…Please, blog, may I have some more?
Last year, all my loyal readers wept tears of unfathomable sadness when baseball ended, as that meant the end of the greatest weekly column in the history of the Internet. Thankfully, Razzball has decided this year that they do not want to disappoint everyone out there who make up my loyal fan base, so they have asked me to write a weekly football picks column. Here’s the important stuff – I will be focusing on FanDuel cash picks. That’s not to say that you couldn’t take my advice and use it for other sites, but each DFS site has its own salary structure, so a good play on one site isn’t necessarily a good play on another site. So if you only play somewhere else besides FanDuel, be very careful with these picks as they’re based specifically on the salaries on FanDuel. Further, the bulk of these picks are for cash games. I will make GPP recommendations wherever I feel it’s reasonable to do so, but if you’re only a GPP player, then while this column will still be useful, just know that it’s a cash-first article. Finally, I will be making occasional references to Rudy’s projections, which you should purchase, because they are quite good. That’s not me shamelessly plugging them – that’s me speaking the truth – they’re quite good and quite helpful for anyone who plays NFL DFS. So with that in mind, onto the picks…Please, blog, may I have some more?
Sentences starting similarly! Titillating titles! Alliteration abounds! Okay, I won’t keep that up forever. But, alas, this is our last time together this year in FanDuel land. I know, I’m tearing up, too. Hopefully you’ve made some money, or at least had some fun. And barring that, maybe you’ve developed a pathological hatred of my […]Please, blog, may I have some more?