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There are nine new coaching positions. And if NFL 2022 preseason is any indication it is going to be fun. They all had their spin on who to play how and when, which technically doesn’t give us an idea of how it is going to turn out…it is preseason after all.
But maybe we can get a glimpse of how these offensive-minded head coaches are going to impact not only their teams but our fantasy teams. And that is us concentrating on what is important.
Of the nine positions, three of the head coaching positions were filled by defensive men. The rest of the coaches come from an offensive background but it appears that all were needed to improve a franchise.
DENVER BRONCOS—NATHANIEL HACKETT
Hackett was previously the Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator. It is worth noting that in addition to Hackett, the Broncos also acquired the services of quarterback Russell Wilson.
Although offensive coordinator in Green Bay, Hackett did not call plays. He will be calling the plays in Denver. Hackett’s philosophy, “The starting point is outside zone. Outside zone is what you want to do on offense, and you want to base that off play-action pass…You want to take shots down the field.”
Last season the Broncos were 19th in passing yards (211.4), 26th in plays per game (60.9), 12th in rushing yards (119.1) and 23rd in points per game (19.7).
The Packers last season were 10th in points per game (25.6), 18th in plays per game (62.6), ninth in passing yards (250.6) and 19th in rushing yards per game (109.3).
Since Hackett was promoted to the offensive coordinator in Green Bay (2019) the Packers have had the second most offensive touchdowns (160) and the fewest giveaways (37). The Broncos did not bring in Hackett and Wilson to run the ball.
Fantasy Impact
Last season in Seattle, Wilson played 14 games after being sidelined with a hand injury. He still had 25 touchdowns and 183 rushing yards with two rushing touchdowns and a 64.8% completion rate. This is on a team whose preference was to run the ball. The Seahawks were 13th in rushing percentage rushing 43.29% of their offensive plays. (Green Bay was 16th 41.39% and Broncos were 10th 43.92%).
There is an upgrade in the offensive line. Last season the Seahawks’ offensive line ranked 26th in pass blocking grades while the Broncos’ offensive line ranked ninth according to Pro Football Focus.
Then there are the weapons: wide receivers Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, KJ Hamler; the running backs Javonte Williams, Melvin Gordon and the tight ends Albert Okwuegbunam and Greg Dulcich. The weapons across the board are an upgrade as the team goes from a defensive-minded head coach to an offensive mind.
All position players in Denver get an upgrade: Williams is currently being drafted as RB9 in standard and RB11 in PPR. Last season he finished as RB17. He had a snap share of 49.9% Had 203 carries, 53 targets and 37 red zone touches. Williams was sixth in evaded tackles (81).
Gordon finished as RB21. He had a 52% snap share with 203 carries, 39 targets and 46 red zone carries. ( Packers Aaron Jones finished last season as RB11 and AJ Dillon finished as RB23). Gordon is currently being drafted as RB38 in standard and RB36 in PPR formats.
There is no Davante Adams or DK Metcalf on the roster, but Sutton, Jeudy and Hamler are more than competent. Sutton is currently being drafted as WR21 (two behind Metcalf), Jeudy WR32 and Hamler WR83.
Last season playing with Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater, Jeudy finished as WR85. He had 56 targets, 38 receptions. Sutton finished as WR44 with 98 targets, 58 receptions and two receiving touchdowns. (In comparison Metcalf saw 129 targets and Tyler Lockett had 107 targets last season).
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS—DOUG PEDERSON
Pederson will call the offensive plays this season. His resume reads 42-37-1, in five seasons with the Philadelphia Eagles; two NFC East titles, three playoff appearances; won the Super Bowl in his first two seasons as head coach with the Eagles.
That is an upgrade from the chaos the Jaguars experienced last season. A season where Trevor Lawrence had 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. The Jaguars finished the season averaging 14.9 points per game (32nd), 60.5 plays per game (29th) and 305.4 yards per game (27th).
In Pederson’s past head coaching, he has had the top 11 rushing offense in each of his five seasons, utilizing a run-first offense with different running backs. The Eagles were top-13 in pass attempts in all five seasons. In 2020 Pederson’s offense was second in the NFL in “12 personnel”.
The Jaguars played their starters sparingly in the first two preseason games.
Lawrence went 20-of-33, with 228 passing yards and one touchdown. Travis Etienne also played a little in two preseason games. He had 17 rushing attempts, three total targets for 52 rushing yards and 10 receiving yards on one reception. Wide receiver Zay Jones played the two games with the starters for seven total targets, three receptions and 59 receiving yards.
Fantasy Impact
Lawrence finished as QB22 in fantasy last season. He averaged 12.71 fantasy point per game. Marvin Jones Jr. was the highest fantasy producer in Jacksonville for the wide receivers. He was WR37 with a 6.3 average fantasy points per game. With Etienne out with the Lisfranc injury, James Robinson finished as RB25 averaging 10.2 fantasy points per game before his Achilles injury.
Per fantasy pros, Lawrence has the second easiest schedule for a quarterback. He is currently being drafted as QB18. With Pederson calling plays there is optimism that Lawrence will outplay his current draft position. In his five years in Philadelphia, the offense finished top-10 in pass attempts in four of those years.
Etienne is going as RB18 in both standard and PPR leagues while Robinson is going as RB41. Do not forget Pederson’s fondness for using multiple running backs. Robinson may be going way to low if he is in fact recovered from a late Achilles injury.
Christian Kirk is currently the highest drafted wide receiver with an ADP WR41 and 99th overall. Tight end acquisition Evan Engram’s current ADP is TE20.
The truth is the Jaguars cannot be worse than they were during the Urban Meyer experiment.
In Pederson’s system look for Lawrence and Robinson to outplay their current ADPs.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS—JOSH MCDANIEL
This is McDaniel’s second and a half go around as a head coach. We know that he has spent most of his time as the offensive coordinator in New England.
Last season on their way to Super Wild Card Weekend, where they lost to Cincinnati the Raiders put up so-so numbers against a lot of turbulence.
They were 28th in rushing yards per game (95.6), sixth in passing yards per game (269.4), 12th in plays per game (64.1) and 18th in points per game (21.8).
McDaniel utilizes elements of the Erhardt-Perkins offense. This is a full-field concept. Everyone is expected to be able to run both the inside and outside routes. There are no decoys any receiver can get the ball on any route. The current glaring question mark is the offensive line which PFF ranked 28th in 2021 season-ending rankings.
With a different set of skill set players last season, this system had Jakobi Meyers (126 targets) and Hunter Henry (75 targets) as the most targeted players on the Patriots offense.
With a rookie quarterback under center last season, McDaniels and the Patriots were eighth in rushing yards per game (124.4), 14th in passing yards per game (226.3), 22nd in plays per game (61.8) and seventh in points per game (26.6).
Fantasy Impact
Going from Gruden to McDaniel must have a positive impact on the Raiders’ fantasy value. The addition of Davante Adams doesn’t hurt.
Quarterback Derek Carr is currently being drafted as fantasy QB14. He finished last season as QB13 averaging 15.94 fantasy points per game with 23 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and 4804 passing yards.
Carr will never give you the upside of a dual-threat quarterback. But with his weapons this season and new head coach he can add more touchdowns (hopefully less interceptions) and more passing yards. It is conceivable that Carr outperforms his QB13. But act with caution. As good as McDaniels will be for the offense remember he is not particularly fond of just airing the ball out. Even in his years with Tom Brady he deployed a balanced run v pass offense. His offenses have thrown the ball on average of 52.5% of plays.
Adams is WR1 category regardless of who is throwing him the ball. It helps that this season it is his good friend and college quarterback, Carr. Look for McDaniels to utilize Adams as the legitimate red zone threat, he is.
Last season Hunter Renfrow finished as WR10 in PPR formats. Think Julian Edelman, Wes Welker, and Eddie Royal (I KNOW…but he averaged 6.1 targets with McDaniels as head coach in Denver). McDaniels likes his slot receivers.
This brings us to tight end Darren Waller. McDaniels also likes his tight ends. Waller finished last season as TE17. In 11 games he had 93 targets for a 24.2% target share with 15 of those targets coming in the red zone (where the Raiders sucked). Now he will compete with Adams and Renfrow for targets and especially Adams for red zone targets.
Waller is also dealing with a hamstring issue this season (after having ankle and knee injuries last season). Waller is currently being drafted as TE5. Even with a shallow tight end pool this is high even in a tight end-friendly offense. Injuries and target competition will lower his ceiling significantly.
Keep your waiver wire eyes open for Foster Moreau.
Josh Jacobs is playing for a contract in a run-friendly offense. Jacobs had a meh season (40th ranked in fantasy points per opportunity and 36th ranked in breakaway run rate) behind a poor offensive line and a questionable offensive scheme. The offensive line hasn’t gotten better. The offensive play calling has gotten better. Last season the Raiders ranked 29th in red zone efficiency. The Patriots ranked seventh in red zone efficiency. The Patriots were tied for second in average rushing touchdowns per game last season (1.3) the Raiders were tied for 20th (0.8).
Jacobs is currently being drafted as RB21. That should be his floor. With McDaniels usage of running backs, just think of Damien Harris last season who had 13 touchdowns from inside the red zone.
MIAMI DOLPHINS—MIKE MCDANIEL
McDaniel was previously the offensive coordinator for the San Francisco Niners. Before becoming the offensive coordinator he was the running game coordinator for four seasons.
Last season Miami was 17th in passing yards (214.8), 29th in rushing yards per game (92.2), 22nd in points per game (20.1) and 11th in plays per game (64.5).
McDaniel comes from the Kyle Shanahan offensive mindset. The Dolphins’ offense might then be comprised of the wide zone running offense coupled with play action passes with the receiving corps running lots of slants and crossing routes.
The Dolphins played their starters in limited action. In the third preseason game quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa went 6-of-7 for 121 yards and one touchdown. Tyreek Hill had two targets with two receptions for 64 yards and the plethora of running backs all had their time on the field.
Fantasy Impact
When McDaniel was first hired he advised all fantasy managers to pick up Jaylen Waddle. Last season Waddle finished as WR13. He was on the field for an 84.2% snap share and a 24.8% target share (142 targets). He finished the season with 1015 yards and six touchdowns.
And then came Tyreek Hill. Hill was the man in Kansas City. There is no reason to believe he will not have the same role in Miami. Hill finished last season as WR6. He was on the receiving end of 159 targets (25.1% target share) while on the field for 73.2% snap share. Hill is currently being drafted as WR8 and Waddle WR16.
For fantasy purposes the running back stable is immense. And if McDaniel’s time in San Francisco tells us anything it is he is not afraid to rotate his running backs with no concern for our fantasy fortunes at all.
The only loser in this scenario (besides our fantasy football running back decisions) is tight end Mike Gesicki. Gesicki is a receiving tight end in a scheme that has historically valued blocking tight ends. His usage should be a concern and the addition of Hill will only devalue his targets. If he is traded that’s another story…IF.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS—KEVIN O’CONNELL
O’Connell was the Los Angeles Rams offensive coordinator for the past two seasons. He comes from an offensive plan that uses a wide zone run game emphasizing play action passing. Last season the Rams led the NFL in utilizing 11-personnel ( 1RB, 1TE, 3WR) 85% of the time. The Vikings used 11 personnel less than 50% of the time.
Last season the Vikings were 10th in yards per game (362.8) and 13th in plays per game (63.7) while scoring 25.0 average points per game (13th). Their defense was 26th in rushing yards allowed (130.7), 28th in passing yards allowed (252.9) and 24th in points allowed per game (25.1).
Now they have fired their “defensive-minded” head coach and hired O’Connell as head coach. O’Connell hired Ed Donatell as the defensive coordinator.
Donatell was the defensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos in the 2019-21 seasons. Under Donatell the Broncos were 14th in rushing yards allowed per game (111.3), eighth in passing yards allowed per game (214.8) and second in points allowed per game (18.9).
The Vikings will now switch to a 3-4 defense. This defense will also utilize four-man fronts.
Per Donatell, “Just know we’ll have both fronts. That will make us hard to play against. …Keystone foundation points: we’re going to set edges. That’s. our outside linebackers, defensive ends, we’re going to set hard edges. We’re going to be a great tackling outfit. The downs we’ll be playing in this league because of the multiple receivers, we’re going to be in a lot of nickel. And in the nickel, we’ll play in an even front and an odd front. So that won’t be much changed. There will be a lot of carryovers to our guys”
Though the defensive coordinator in Denver last season, then head coach Vic Fangio called the defensive plays. Donatell has not called a game since 2006.
Fantasy Impact
The Vikings’ defense was second in sacks last season (51). This defense should increase quarterback pressures and since Donatell is known for his secondaries, defense against the pass. For those who must draft a defensive team, first, know your scoring, and second, don’t shy away from the Vikings.
Going from the 4-3 to the 3-4 the IDP defensive players you are going to draft may change. The 4-3 scheme will give you more bang for your buck. The defensive end and middle linebackers are your scoring machines. The defensive end will get you sacks, and the middle linebacker should be a tackling machine.
NEW YORK GIANTS—BRIAN DABOLL
Last season the Giants were 31st in average passing yards per game (188.0), 23rd in rushing yards per game (99.3), 31st in points per game (15.2) and 25th in plays per game (61.8).
Daboll’s offensive scheme uses wide receivers a lot. In 2021 with Daboll as their offensive coordinator, the Buffalo Bills ran 11-personnel on 71% of their offensive snaps. They ran 10-personnel (four wide receivers, one running back, and zero tight ends) at the third-highest rate in the NFL. The Giants ran 11-personnel on the league average of 61%. The Giants ran 10-personnel on five total snaps (less than one percent).
Fantasy Impact
First, the Giants do not have the personnel of the Bills. There is Saquon Barkley better than the Bills and there is Daniel Jones less than Josh Allen.
Jones is playing for a contract. Last season before his concussion in Week5 he was QB8 and averaged 23.3 fantasy points per game. Now that’s a small sample size but this season he has an offensive-minded “quarterback whisperer” as his head coach. And according to fantasy pros Jones has the easiest strength of schedule for a quarterback. Jones is currently being drafted as QB28.
Barkley is currently being drafted as RB14, the 25th player overall. He is going at the end of the second round.
The offensive line that ranked 28th last season is completely revamped. Evan Neal right tackle was drafted seventh overall. Andrew Thomas is the only remaining lineman from last season. He will anchor the left side of the line.
The Giants will also have Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney and second-round rookie Wan’Dale Robinson. This isn’t Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders and Dawson Knox. Last season Diggs had 164 targets, Beasley had 112 targets, Sanders 72 targets and Knox 71 targets.
The Giants were 73 targets for Evan Engram (gone), Darius Slayton 58 targets, Toney 57 targets and Sterling Shepard 53 targets.
This isn’t a receiving corps that rivals the Bills and what Daboll had to work with.
