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NFL. AFC. NFC. PAT. RPO. ADP. ECR. Fantasy football is filled with acronyms. And never forget RGS, Roger Goodell Smells. Two of the most common in the fantasy realm are ADP and ECR, which have become components of the everyday vocabulary for even the most casual players: Average Draft Position and Expert Consensus Ranking. Now, the ‘perts in this field do phenomenal work. They’re never been better, but they’re still human (or donkeys). They get things wrong, just like I do. Sometimes when you look at the ECR hodgepodge, the end product is lacking common sense like a multimillionaire NFL player accepting a dare to soil a fire hydrant in public for five bucks. But today, we’ll stick to coins instead of bills, as I’ll provide my two “cents” on 15 players whose current ECR I disagree with. Sticking to the surface, I’ll make my case using relatively basic arguments and pointing out some common sense disagreements I have with the ECR breakdown.
Quarterback
5. Kyler Murray – UNDERVALUED. Murray is being penalized by drafters for limping through the second half of the season last year, but he provided substantial value on the ground and through the air while consistently displaying that he’s one of the most electric talents to ever play the position. QB1 overall remains in his range of possible outcomes. He’s a Tier 1 QB in my book.
13. Aaron Rodgers – UNDERVALUED. The 2021-22 NFL MVP has an ECR of 13, but everyday joes seem to be more bullish with an ADP of QB10. Rodgers finished as the QB5 LAST YEAR. Yes, he’s one year older and yes, Davante Adams is gone, but every time we doubt Rodgers, he makes a massive fart noise in our faces and ups his game.
14. Kirk Cousins – OVERVALUED. Not that you’re drafting him as a starter in your lineup to begin with, but Cousins is simply a below-average NFL quarterback. The skill position players at his disposal and a new, faster tempo offense give him a seemingly digestible floor, but I’m not sold that everything is going to fit so nicely in Minneapolis.
20. Matt Ryan – UNDERVALUED. He isn’t done yet. I’d bet Frank Reich’s bifocals on it. Last year, Carson Wentz was booty cheeks down the stretch and still managed to finish as the QB13, ranking 17th on a per-game basis. Ryan has an ECR of QB20 and is going even later in drafts at QB22. Michael Pittman Jr. is primed to take a big step forward in this offense while Jonathan Taylor makes life far easier for Ryan than it was in Atlanta. I can see Ryan easily being a top-15 QB for fantasy and providing legitimate streaming value. He’s a favorite second QB of mine to install in two-quarterback formats.
23. Mac Jones – UNDERVALUED. Jones is my pick to be this year’s Justin Herbert, taking an enormous step forward in Year 2. This offense won’t be built for a fantasy superstar under center, but he’ll finish well inside the top 20 at the position.
Running Back
6. Najee Harris – UNDERVALUED. The Steelers offensive line is going to be bad. Scratch that, the Steelers’ whole offense is going to be bad. But Harris is going to see tremendous volume and there is even more late-season upside if things somehow take off with Kenny Pickett under center. Harris ranked 22nd in the NFL in red zone touches last year, and if that goes up even a little bit, he’ll have RB1 overall in his range of outcomes.
13. Leonard Fournette – OVERVALUED. Javonte Williams. James Conner. Ezekiel Elliott. Cam Akers. This is just a short list of names I would take over Fournette. He’s one year older and the internal motor has always been a cause for concern. I understand the reasons for optimism with the new-look Lombardi Lenny, and that he’s retransformed himself into a three-down back, but I’ll happily miss out on this one in lieu of other options.
17. Breece Hall – OVERVALUED. Some things you just have to see to believe. A New York Jet returning top-20 RB value is one of them. So is Donkey Teeth finding a woman who loves him for who he truly is. The talent is undebatable, but that talent might be left to burn in a dumpster fire.
19. Cam Akers – UNDERVALUED. Last week, I gave you my Cam Akers Fantasy Football Sleeper post. It was written while touring Western Europe on a camel.
28. Clyde Edwards-Helaire – UNDERVALUED. The starting running back on one of the NFL’s premier offenses. Ronald Jones may or may not be getting cut, but Jerick McKinnon still figures to vulture targets. But an ECR of RB28? CEH’mon, now.
Wide Receiver
7. Deebo Samuel – OVERVALUED. 2021 was the year to own Deebo. If you missed out, you missed out. He’ll still be an elite fantasy option, but I don’t see him living up to his ECR of WR7, which is exactly where he’s being drafted. 2022 is the year of Brandon Aiyuk in terms of ROI.
9. Tyreek Hill – OVERVALUED. You can tinker with the statistics to make Tua Tagovailoa look like a good deep ball passer or a bad one. I’m not here to argue one versus the other, but Miami is a suboptimal fit for Hill. I’ll buy back in come 2023 with more reliable data, but I’m out in 2022 unless he falls in drafts.
17. Terry McLaurin – UNDERVALUED. McLaurin has been one of the most consistent and talented wide receivers in the NFL the past two seasons, and now he’ll be playing with arguably the best quarterback he ever has in his career: Carson Wentz. Ha! Wow, Terry, what did you do to make the universe hate you? Michael Pittman Jr. was WR16 just last year in a Wentz offense feeding Jonathan Taylor. T-Mac finishes in WR1 range this season.
21. DK Metcalf – UNDERVALUED. You simply can’t have this type of generational physical talent this low. Do I have faith in Geno Smith and Drew Lock? Literally none. But I also have zero faith in anyone covering Metcalf, who is ranked behind 29-year-old Brandin Cooks by the industry’s experts.
28. Rashod Bateman – UNDERVALUED. Marquise Brown is gone and Bateman might be the better all-around NFL talent anyway. Nothing against Hollywood, but most people don’t realize just how electric Bateman is. Perhaps it’s because he played college ball at Minnesota. Perhaps it’s because people spend too much time watching Real Housewives. Who knows!?
That’s all for this week, Razzball fam! As always, I’m happy to take this conversation into the comments section or on Twitter, where you can find me @WorldOfHobbs.
