“Change is good” – Someone.
I’m trying something a little bit different this week. I’ve given some quick hit stats and blurbs from my normal sources instead of finding the top 3-4 and elaborating on what I believe it means for the week and how we can take advantage of it. Let me know in the comment section if you like this style better, worse, or would even prefer a hybrid. The positives about this style is your going to get a higher volume of nuggets that influence players/teams and it is far easier to consume. The negative is they aren’t particularly as in depth, and you may have to draw your own conclusions on how to use it. Anyway, I write so you can consume so let me know what you think!
Fun With Air Yards (Source: AirYards.com)
D.J. Chark – Chark has come from out of nowhere in the 2019 season. In the past 3 weeks, he is #3 in Air Yards and #6 using all weeks. His target share wasn’t even leading his own team until Minshew targeted him 11 times in Week 5. Don’t expect a WR1 finish but he is playable weekly.
Curtis Samuel – Samuel is #9 overall in Air Yards on the season.. Only he and Odell Beckham Jr. are in the top 10 for the seasons and outside of the top 20 PPR WRs. His target share has decreased over the past 3 weeks with Kyle Allen, but this Sunday looks like a good bounce back spot in London. The Bucs take away the run game, but have been vulnerable through the air. Samuel might even be on some waiver wires in shallow leagues.
Michael Gallup – In weeks that Gallup has played in 2019 he is 12th overall in Air Yards and 8th in PPR fantasy points per game. He is a big component to the Cowboys passing game.
No Fly Zone (Source: SportsInfoSolutions)
The following players have over an 80% success rate in primary coverage with more than 15 intended targets:
- Jason McCourty – New England
- Marlon Humphrey – Baltimore
- Jonathan Jones – New England
The following players allow less than 4 yards per pass intended and have more than 20 intended targets:
- Jonathan Jones – New England
- Justin Coleman – Detroit
- Daryl Worley – Oakland
DVOA Shockers (Source: Football Outsiders)
#7 Offensive DVOA – Jacksonville Jaguars: Gardner Minshew has been one of the great surprises of the 2019 season, but the return of a thus far healthy Leonard Fournette and a healthy offensive line in comparison to 2018. Be weary of targeting this team with your DEF/ST.
#26 Offensive DVOA – Cleveland Browns: I’ve been pretty hard on Freddie Kitchens , I do believe that the Brown displayed a horde of arrogance in the way they built a team this weak. Throwing offensive weapons and a quarterback with less than a season full of starts to the wolves with a bottom 5 offensive line while attempting to “push the ball downfield” is a recipe for disaster. That is exactly what it has happened. Hopefully Kitchens can make an adjustment. They have the potential to turn this around quickly and this week is a great bounce back spot against Seattle at home (#22 defensive DVOA)
#7 Defensive DVOA – Pittsburgh Steelers: Minkah Fitzpatrick has been a huge factor on this defense. Two weeks in, this looked like a defense to target, but they have been successful against both SF (#4 offensive DVOA) and Baltimore (#5 offensive DVOA)
#10 Defensive DVOA – New York Jets: Last week, we touched on the Chargers struggles defensively, and I think they remain the most shockingly poor defensive team of the season. Therefore, I wanted to give you multiple good defensive teams. The Jets are doing this without all-pro line backer C.J Mosley and if you glance at the back half of their schedule it might be the lightest in NFL history. There is a real opportunity for this squad to turn it around and be both real-life and fantasy relevant.
Red Zone Play Frequency (Source: Sharp Football Stats)
Run Heavy
- Minnesota Vikings – 69% run in red zone – Dalvin Cook will continue to crush.
- Baltimore Ravens – 62% run in red zone – Lamar Jackson has more rushing TDs in the hopper.
- Buffalo Bills – 62% run in red zone – The corpse of Frank Gore lives on.
Pass Heavy (Needed 10+ attempts)
- Cincinnati Bengals – 67% pass in red zone – Andy Dalton may remain start able all season.
- Atlanta Falcons – 65% pass in red zone – Devonta Freeman remain a serious downgrade candidate.
- Washington Redskins – 63% pass in the red zone – Terry McLaurin is going to be a roster mainstay.
Explosive Play Rate (Source: Sharp Football Stats)
Most Explosive Offenses:
- Minnesota Vikings – Highest Explosive Play Rate (16%) – Against a poor passing defensive this week. It is possible that Adam Thielen can go back to back.
- Dallas Cowboys – Most Explosive Plays (47) – This is a concentrated offense. Dak, Zeke, Cooper, Gallup week after week. Take advantage.
Defenses Allowing Explosive Plays Vs. Run
- Indianapolis Colts (17% of run plays)
- Carolina Panthers (17% of run plays)
Defenses Allowing Explosive Plays Vs. Pass
- Miami Dolphins (15% of pass plays)
- New York Giants (14% of pass plays)
