Deep Threats: 2022 Fantasy Football Receiver Sleepers

[brid video=”1073252″ player=”10951″ title=”2022%20Razzball%20Fantasy%20Football%20Draft%20Kit%20WR's” duration=”146″ description=”2022 Razzball Fantasy Football Draft Kit highlighting Wide ReceiversFave: Mike Williams (:23)Flier: Chase Claypool (1:03)Fade: Tyreek Hill (1:45)” uploaddate=”2022-08-11″ thumbnailurl=”https://cdn.brid.tv/live/partners/9233/snapshot/1073252_th_1660177785.jpg” contentUrl=”//cdn.brid.tv/live/partners/9233/sd/1073252.mp4″ width=”480″ height=”270″]

Perhaps the greatest skill employed by fantasy footballers is napkin math.  And the weird thing is, it’s useless to study napkin math; you can only get better at it after a couple beers and some takeout. What’s that you say? Door Dash calculated everything for you? Awesome. I suppose you had a computer algorithm choose your fantasy football team, too, eh? Is that how you ended up with Tom Brady as the fifth overall pick? ENYWHEY.

I saw a colleague post something recently about drafting your third wide receiver (WR3) before you take your second running back (RB2). Of course, going receiver-heavy is a strategy that can win, but it flies in the face of longitudinal evidence we’ve been collecting that getting 2 main RBs and 1 TE by round 5 is a strategy that wins everything from NFC tournaments to the RazzBowl to the Underdog Milly Maker tournaments. For your home leagues, it’s equally important to grab RB instead of WR because top RB are scarce. 

The case for WR-heavy drafts is made on the back of “diversification,” in the sense that, RBs get injured more often than other football positions, which causes scarcity among top RBs. In a quick glance/glimpse (which I call glampse) of last year’s RB, 3 of them missed over half the season, and about half of them missed several games. As for my glampse at WR, one of them missed the season due to uncontrollable external factors, another missed 40% of the season, and the rest were balling through the year. 

Hmmm. Balling through the Year. I’ve got a movie script to write! ENYWHEY. The RB scarcity narrative goes: If RBs get injured a lot, then one should draft WR, who get tons of action and never get injured (brb writing up a fan-fiction for Maxim). 

So, let’s do our napkin math, establish that we want some RBs up front in our drafts, and then think about extremely late-game receivers that will help your team. 

A Crowded House

Hey now, hey now! Don’t dream it’s over! You can win your fantasy football league many ways. However, there are a lot of successful wide receivers — in fact, there are so many great receivers that the position almost becomes meaningless at times. 

The wide-receiver position is extremely deep in modern football. Let’s compare the non-QB positions and check out the the yardage distribution, which is also what I do if you invite me over for a beer. For sake of napkin math, let’s say we’re looking just at rushing yards for running backs and receiving yards for receivers and tight ends. When I say “#,” I mean, “number of players.” All data from 2021 but trust me, it correlates with previous years pretty well. 

Wooo, tables! Now we’re having fun! Let’s define our terms: 

• Position: What you do during yoga. 
• #>1000 Yards: The number of 2021 NFL players who exceeded 1,000 yards in rushing/receiving. 1,000 yards is an arbitrary choice but everything is arbitrary in this game so don’t worry about it. 
• # > 50 Y/G: Who made this table? I came here to look at shirtless pics of Austin Ekeler and argue about drafting A-Rog. [sigh] This is the number of players who averaged 50 yards rushing/receiving per game or more. 
• > 100 Touches: OK this is getting personal. OH! Wait. This is the number of players who had greater than 100 rushing attempts or 100 receiving targets. 

So, quick napkin math takeaway: 

• TE Scarcity: Dang, not a lot of TE out there! I talked about this last year and the whole article holds up for this year so do that homework. Target a TE in the first 4 rounds, but not too early. Think about the Goldilocks zone of “just right” tight ends. Hmmmmm. 
• RB Scarcity: Sure there are plenty of RBs who get a lot of touches and even some who get plenty of yards per game, but after all the attrition, a total of 7 bold souls made it to the finish line with greater than 1,000 yards. And let’s not forget, the separation between leading rusher Jonathan Taylor and the second-place finisher Najee Harris was 600 yards. In 2020, leading rusher Derrick Henry outpaced Dalvin Cook by nearly 500 yards. 
• WR Abundance: They’re everywhere (like me!). If you’re in a 10-team league, every team can have 2 1,000 yard+ receivers without breaking a sweat. In a 12-team league, every team can have 50+ yard per game receivers and still have 3 receivers on the bench. Even though Cooper Kupp went for nearly 2,000 yards receiving last year — the second most ever in the NFL — he outpaced second-place finisher Davante Adams by about 400 yards. In 2020, the race was tighter, with Stefon Diggs leading Davante Adams by about 150 yards. 

Takeaway of the takeaway: there’s a bunch of receivers and they tend to have less separation between the greats than the running backs. Therefore, draft running backs and tight ends earlier because when you succeed on these picks, receivers won’t be able to stop you. 

Additional top secret info (shhh don’t tell the Feds!): The receiver market is often a mess. You could draft Cooper Kupp in the 5th round last year. So, a very feasible draft was Jonathan Taylor (ADP 9), Najee Harris (ADP 14), George Kittle (ADP 28), D’Andre Swift (ADP 39), and Cooper Kupp (ADP 52). 

Conversely, it was also feasible to draft the following team: Davante Adams (ADP 8), Saquon Barkley (ADP 10), Calvin Ridley (ADP 20), Robert Woods (ADP 42), Miles Sanders (ADP 35)…you get the point. How about that WR3 above your RB2? 

You could draft teams until the sun goes black — if you have the magic mojo, there’s not much to stop you from winning. And if you messed up the draft, there’s nothing morally wrong with that — there are trillions of ways to mess up your draft. You’re much more likely to miss than to succeed. 

So how do we succeed, then? As the touts say, “Draft stats, not names.” 

Let’s veer into the actionable part of our article now and figure out some really deep receiver ideas to complement your team. 

Super Sleepers

Van Jefferson (ADP: 182, Razzball WR76): Had minor knee surgery a few weeks ago and might miss the season opener. Coach Sean McVay is reporting positivity all around and that Jefferson will be back in as the third wide-receiver on the depth charts when he’s healthy. There are big injuries that you worry about — like, Odell Beckham Jr. or Sterling Shepherd — and then there are the injuries where the player and coach are telling you “he’s ready, he’s got a spot on the team, and he’s looking great.” Jefferson — the WR34 last year — is now drafted after random WR on the Packers (Christian Watson ADP155!). So, take advantage of that inefficiency and boost your WR core in best balls and draft and holds with V.J. Wait, lemme re-write that…Draft! 

Odell Beckham Jr.: Lemme just take a moment here and tell you not to draft the injury superstars. These guys aren’t really sleepers because you know they’re going to miss time. Nobody wins leagues by rostering players who [checks notes] aren’t playing. Qualities of a sleeper: A) they’re playing, B) they’re playing for a high-offense team, and C) you’re pretty sure they’ll outperform their peers. Beckham right now: A) Not playing for the first half of the season and possibly more, B) No idea which team he’ll play for, C) He played in 13 games last year and barely scraped the top 50 WR threshold. A lesson I’ve learned from the touts: don’t draft injuries. Beckham is not a sleeper for 2022. If he ends up healthy and playing later in the year, add him via a waiver claim or a big FAAB bid. Don’t draft him now, even if you’ve got an IL spot to spare — you want upside (remember James Robinson?), not guys who are knowingly not playing. Avoid! 

Donovan Peoples-Jones (ADP: 192, Razzball WR58): Yes, 100% Deshaun Watson deserves every bit of hate he’s getting and I honestly don’t know why the Browns looked at that player profile and thought “Yes, that’s the face of our franchise.” ENYWHEY. DPJ finished as WR65 in PPR leagues last year despite being buried in the depth chart and having Baker Mayfield as his QB. DPJ will start (and maybe finish?) the year with Jacoby Brissett at the helm, and Brissett is an OK-ish QB for fantasy receivers — maybe 200 yards per game and a TD per. Meh. Again, we’re talking receivers who are rostered in the deepest of leagues, and you want opportunity and playing time, right? DPJ is WR2 on the depth charts this year and the Browns proved to be competent as a team last year. If Watson takes the field in 2022, DPJ’s value theoretically goes up — I mean, Brissett has played more in recent history than Watson. But even if DPJ is stuck with Brissett at the helm, he’s got per-game upside on a weekly basis, which is all you want out of pick 200. Stream! 

Jamison Crowder (ADP 203, Razzball WR72): High volume passing offense with a top QB, and Crowder steps in as WR4 with Isaiah McKenzie ahead of him on the depth charts. Sure, we can get excited about McKenzie, but McKenzie has been in the league 5 years and has barely surpassed the number of receptions that running back D’Andre Swift had in his healthy games in 2022 alone. Crowder is just a bit older than McKenzie and has a couple years of 100+ targets under his belt and has finished as a WR3 for fantasy teams 4 times in his career. Odds are: Crowder makes a bigger splash in Buffalo this year and outperforms McKenzie. Draft! 

Chase Claypool (ADP 107, Razzball WR47): OK, here’s some fodder for the shallower leagues. There’s massive hate on Claypool for 2022, largely due to his QB situation. In my RazzBowl league, I landed Claypool as WR4, and I took him after guys like KJ Osborn (ADP 180), Skyy Moore (ADP 134), Garrett Wilson (ADP 115), and Isaiah McKenzie (ADP 237). Thank you for shopping value! There’s really not much more to say here than Claypoool finished his rookie year as a fringe fantasy WR1 and finished last year as a FLEX receiver. And now he’s fallen below guys who have never played in the league and guys who aren’t drafted in standard leagues. Whatever. Throw your late round pick at Claypool and don’t be surprised when he returns starter value. Draft! 

Who are you targeting late in your drafts? Speaking of — how are those drafts going? Let me know down in the comments!