In this article, we will break down how many fantasy points a defense allows to wide receivers from the slot vs. out wide. The analysis will hopefully help us better identify which types of wide receivers to target each week based on where they see the most targets.
For week 1 we will review how the teams in the AFC home games faired vs. slot and outside wide receivers in 2020. We will then look at what has potentially changed from last season and what information could repeat in 2021. The below chart outlines all the teams that are featured in the AFC home games in week 1 and listed by how many total fantasy points they allowed to the wide receiver position last season.
| AFC HOME GAMES | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Slot PPG | Wide PPG | Total PPG | % Slot |
| TEN | 12.3 | 24.6 | 36.9 | 33% |
| SEA | 13.1 | 21.3 | 34.4 | 38% |
| MIN | 10.5 | 23.7 | 34.2 | 31% |
| HOU | 13.2 | 19.7 | 32.9 | 40% |
| CLE | 13.3 | 19.3 | 32.6 | 41% |
| MIA | 11.3 | 20.8 | 32.1 | 35% |
| JAX | 10.4 | 21.3 | 31.7 | 33% |
| LV | 13.4 | 18.2 | 31.6 | 42% |
| IND | 11.9 | 18.9 | 30.8 | 39% |
| CIN | 9 | 21.1 | 30.1 | 30% |
| ARI | 11.5 | 17.5 | 28.9 | 40% |
| PIT | 11.4 | 17 | 28.4 | 40% |
| NE | 10.6 | 17.6 | 28.2 | 38% |
| BUF | 8.8 | 17.6 | 26.4 | 33% |
| BAL | 9.9 | 16.3 | 26.2 | 38% |
| KC | 8.9 | 16.8 | 25.7 | 35% |
| NFL AVG | 11 | 19.2 | 30.2 | 37% |
Slot PPG – This represents how many fantasy points per game a defense allowed to the slot in .5 PPR in 2020
Wide PPG – This represents how many fantasy points per game a defense allowed to outside wide receivers in .5 PPR in 2020
Total PPG – This represents how many total fantasy points per game a defense allowed to the wide receiver position in .5 PPR in 2020
% Slot – This represents what percentage of the total fantasy points per game the defense allowed from the slot in 2020
What We Think We Know..Hopefully?
The Titans Secondary Is Still Exploitable
Week 1 Opponent: Arizona Cardinals
Upgraded Matchup: DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore
Kyler Murray should get off to a hot start as his first matchup is against a Titans secondary that allowed the second most fantasy points to wide receivers and 5th most points to quarterbacks in 2020. The Titans haven’t done much to change the scheme as they promoted OLB coach Shane Bowen. On the player’s side, the Titans lost Malcolm Butler and Desmond King and replaced them with Janoris Jenkins and rookie first round pick Caleb Farley. Farley isn’t listed as a starter on the Titans initial depth chart.
We know DeAndre Hopkins will get his and should be a solid DFS play as six wide receivers saw over 20 fantasy points last year vs. the Titans. The question comes who could be next up. A lot of excitement surrounds Rondale Moore, but the rookie was listed behind Christian Kirk and A.J. Green on the Arizona depth chart. We still recommend Moore as a hold or wavier wire grab as the Cardinals could be featuring plenty four wide receiver sets this season.
Christian Kirk is listed as the first team slot wide receiver which could make him a deep league flex. Last year the Titans allowed some big games to slot wide receivers including Tyler Boyd, Jarvis Landry, Keelan Cole (2), Keke Coutee and Juju Smith-Schuster all getting over 12 PPG in .5 PPR.
The Pittsburgh Steelers Can Be Beat From The Slot
Week 1 Opponent: Buffalo Bills
Upgraded Matchup: Cole Beasley
The Steelers secondary as a whole was very strong in 2020 allowing the 11th fewest fantasy points to the wide receiver position. When you dive in deeper you see that the unit clearly had a weakness inside. The Steelers unit allowed the 7th fewest fantasy points to outside wide receivers. Meanwhile, the Steelers were slightly below average allowing the 14th most points in the slot. This includes double-digit fantasy point games from Greg Ward, Willie Snead, Jarvis Landry, Zach Pascal, Ceedee Lamb and Randall Cobb.
The good news for fantasy managers is this shouldn’t change much in 2021. First, Mike Tomlin returns as Head Coach so the scheme should be the same. Second, the Steelers lost two of their top four corners from last season and have yet to name a starting nickel corner for 2021.
This brings us to the Bills who played the Steelers last season. Stefon Diggs had a strong performance in that week 14 matchup securing a nice 10-130-1. Diggs is locked in week 1 lineups, but striking gold twice against the Steelers’ tough perimeter defense could make him a fade for DFS tournaments. This brings us to Cole Beasley who in that week 14 game saw 10 targets. Granted the production wasn’t there only securing 5-41, but that target upside should put Beasley on the WR3 map for week 1.
What Has Changed From 2020?
The Vikings Gave Up The 5th Most Points To Outside Wide Receivers
Week 1 Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals
Matchup Downgrade: Bengals Wide Receivers
The Vikings will have three new starting cornerbacks including former pro bowler Patrick Peterson, cornerback Bashaud Breeland and slot cornerback Mackensie Alexander. All three players could be an upgrade on what the Vikings had last season, but at the very least they bring experience. This trio has a combined 316 games played heading into 2021. Last season the Vikings started two rookies and one second year player which lead to a very tough start to the season. Last season all three of the Vikings top cornerback allowed 1.5 yards per covered snap which is towards the bottom in the NFL. While Peterson, Breeland and Alexander all were at or below 1.2 yards per covered snap in 2020.
This brings us to the Bengals who have arguably a top five trio of wide receivers in Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd. It is hard to pinpoint who will have the best matchup. Peterson and Breeland will play the outside and were a part of two teams that were in the bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to outside wide receivers. Alexander played the slot for the Bengals DST that allowed the 4th fewest fantasy points in the inside in 2020. Overall, we would lean Boyd as the best Bengals wide receiver in week 1 as Alexander had the worst yards, receptions and targets per covered snap of the three CBs last season.
The Cardinals Locked Up Outside Wide Receivers
Week 1 Opponent: Tennessee Titans
Matchup Upgrade: Ryan Tannehill, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones
The loss of Patrick Peterson will be felt as he was tasked to shadow opposing number ones in 2020. This year the Cardinals brought over veteran Malcolm Butler to fill that role, but he was recently put on the NFL retired list. That leaves the Cardinals with veteran Robert Alford who hasn’t played a meaningful game since 2018 due to injury, rookie 4th rounder Marco Wilson and recently signed Luq Barcoo from Jacksonville behind top cornerback Byron Murphy. Don’t be surprised if stud safety Budda Baker mans the slot early on in 2021 which could be bad news for slot wide receivers.
There is a silver lining for the Cardinals cornerback situation as the Titans will play a lot of two tight ends sets. The bad news is those two wide receivers in those sets will be Julio Jones and A.J. Brown. Last year the Cardinals allowed the 10th fewest points to outside wide receivers. That trend is unlikely to continue with Arizona drawing thin at cornerback. We should expect the Cardinals to use their best cornerback Byron Murphy in shadow coverage in 2021, but for week 1 fire up this duo as this should be a shootout in Nashville.
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Sources: Razzball, Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, FFToday, and Football Outsiders
