If you haven’t read the first article from week 1 Click Here. That article provides an overview on what we are doing for this article. The goal of this analysis is to find wide receivers to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows vs. the slot and out wide.
The below chart outlines all the teams that are featured in the AFC home games in week 2 and listed by how many total fantasy points they allowed to the wide receiver position this season.
| Team | Slot PPG | Wide | Total | % Slot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 16.9 | 29.2 | 46.1 | 37% |
| HOU | 12.6 | 30.2 | 42.8 | 29% |
| IND | 19.3 | 22.5 | 41.8 | 46% |
| PIT | 21.4 | 17.9 | 39.3 | 54% |
| DEN | 6.8 | 32.3 | 39.1 | 17% |
| CLE | 23.4 | 14.1 | 37.5 | 62% |
| BAL | 27.7 | 9.6 | 37.3 | 74% |
| JAX | 7.2 | 25.3 | 32.5 | 22% |
| BUF | 9.1 | 20.7 | 29.8 | 31% |
| LV | 15.7 | 13.4 | 29.1 | 54% |
| NYJ | 17.5 | 11.2 | 28.7 | 61% |
| KC | 6.6 | 21.3 | 27.9 | 24% |
| MIA | 17.6 | 7.7 | 25.3 | 70% |
| NE | 11.9 | 12.3 | 24.2 | 49% |
| LAR | 3.4 | 17.9 | 21.3 | 16% |
| LAC | 2.9 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 23% |
| NFL AVG. | 13.8 | 20.5 | 35.1 | 39% |
Slot PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed to the slot in .5 PPR in 2020
Wide PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed to outside wide receivers in .5 PPR in 2020
Total PPG – This represents how many total fantasy points a defense allowed to the wide receiver position in .5 PPR in 2020
% Slot – This represents what percentage of the total fantasy points the defense allowed from the slot in 2020
Key Slot Matchups
Team: Buffalo Bills
Opponent: Miami Dolphins
Matchup Upgrade: Cole Beasley
Cole Beasley had a strong week 1 as he secured 8 receptions for 60 yards vs. a tough Steelers defense. Once again Beasley is firmly on the WR3 map in .5 and full PPR as the Bills face the Dolphins in week 2. Miami has two very strong outside cornerbacks in Byron Jones and Xavien Howard which should open up looks for Beasley in the slot. Last week the Dolphins allowed Jakobi Meyers to catch 6 receptions from the slot. In Beasley’s lone game vs. Miami in 2020, he had a solid 5-70. This should allow Beasley to outperform his WR 45 rank according to FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) for week 2.
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
Opponent: Las Vegas Raiders
Matchup Upgrade: Juju Smith-Schuster
The Steelers started the season in what ended up being a defensive matchup vs. the Buffalo Bills. Both passing games didn’t meet expectations, but things should open up for the Steelers in week 2 vs. the Raiders. Juju Smith-Schuster quietly led the Steelers in receiving yards last week with 52 on a day where Ben Roethlisberger only threw for 188 passing yards. This week Juju should have a much easier test vs. a Raider DST that allowed 54% of their wide receiver production to the slot in week 1. This includes a combined 5-121 to Sammy Watkins and Marquise Brown last week. Currently being ranked as a low-end WR3 FantasyPros ECR, Juju should be a lock for double digit points this week.
Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Opponent: Denver Broncos
Matchup Downgrade: Laviska Shenault
In week 1 Laviska Shenault had a solid PPR performance finishing with 7 receptions for 50 yards with just under 13 PPR fantasy points on the week. Heading into week 2 the matchup will get a lot tougher vs. a Broncos DST that allowed the 7th fewest points to the slot in week 1. If you look at the stats overall, Sterling Shepard had a strong day, but only 4-40 of his 7-113-1 came from the slot. Meanwhile Shenault in week 1 ran 82% of his routes and 66% of his targets came from the Slot. In week 2 Shenault will need to show more after the catch as his low ADOT of 4 yards led to one of the lowest yards per receptions on the week. This makes his current top 40 wide receiver ranking a fade against stud slot cornerback Bryce Callahan in week 2.
Key Perimeter Matchups
Team: Los Angeles
Opponent: Dallas Cowboys
Matchup Upgrade: Mike Williams
Mike Williams came out swinging vs. a tough Washington Football Team opponent in week 1 securing 8-82-1. This week the Chargers are in line for a potential shootout as they face a Cowboys offense that hung nearly 30 on the super champs last week. In week 1 it was Antonio Brown who stole the show for the perimeter wide receivers against Dallas going for 5-121-1. Williams should be first in line to dominate looks on the outside after leading the Chargers in routes and tying Keenan Allen with 12 targets on the week. Currently ranked as the WR27 according to ECR, Williams low draft day cost might make it tough for you to get him in lineups. However, based on the potential high scoring affair between these two teams we suggest getting him in for week 2.
Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Opponent: Denver Broncos
Matchup Upgrade: Marvin Jones
Marvin Jones didn’t lead the Jaguars in any receiving category after week 1. D.J. Chark led the team in targets and yards while Laviska Shenault led the team in receptions. That being said, it was clear that Jones was the best wide receiver on the field putting up a solid 5-77-1 on the week. This week’s opponent is a tough one, but the Broncos did leave week 1 allowing the third most points to outside wide receivers. This includes three receivers getting over 60 yards on the week. Heading into week 2 the Broncos will be down starting cornerback Ronald Darby which means rookie Patrick Surtain will be thrusted into the starting lineup. Long term Surtain could become a solid cornerback, but he finished outside the top 50 in PFF coverage grades in week 1. It is clear Marvin Jones can exploit this matchup making him a solid play even with his ranking being outside the top 40 for week 2.
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
Opponent: Oakland Raiders
Matchup Downgrade: Chase Claypool
It would be fair to say we shouldn’t be scared off by the Raiders, but the secondary performed well against the Ravens in week 1 limiting Lamar Jackson to 235 pass yards. When you look at the final stats for the Ravens wide receivers Sammy Watkins (4-96) and Marquise Brown (6-69-1) got it done. However, 5-121 of that production came from the slot. This has a lot to do with the Raiders signing of Casey Hayward who after a down 2020 looked like his old self in week 1. Also, factoring into this is a healthy Diontae Johnson. Dating back to 2020 once Johnson returned from injury Claypool has only hit double digit fantasy points in .5 PPR 5 of 12 regular season games. All this makes Claypool a fade at his WR28 ranking for week 2.
Check out our Premium Fantasy Football Tools — only $19 for the best aggressive rankings in the business!
Sources: Razzball, Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, FFToday, and Football Outsiders
