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If you haven’t read the intro to defense slot vs. wide analysis then dive in now. That article provides the overview of what we are doing for this article. The goal of this article is to find wide receivers to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide.
The below chart outlines all the teams that are featured in the AFC home games in week 3 and listed by how many total fantasy points they allowed to the wide receiver position this season.
| Team | Slot PPG | Wide PPG | Total PPG | % Slot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | 30 | 26 | 55.9 | 54% |
| CHI | 18.1 | 25.7 | 43.8 | 41% |
| IND | 16.6 | 26.2 | 42.8 | 39% |
| WSH | 14.7 | 24.1 | 38.8 | 38% |
| PIT | 15.5 | 22.1 | 37.5 | 41% |
| ARI | 17.6 | 19 | 36.5 | 48% |
| CIN | 15.4 | 18.9 | 34.3 | 45% |
| CLE | 15.7 | 17.7 | 33.4 | 47% |
| LV | 11.1 | 21.8 | 32.9 | 34% |
| JAX | 7.9 | 24.8 | 32.6 | 24% |
| NO | 11.1 | 19.3 | 30.4 | 37% |
| DEN | 4.8 | 23.6 | 28.4 | 17% |
| KC | 12.2 | 15.1 | 27.3 | 45% |
| MIA | 12 | 13.8 | 25.7 | 46% |
| BUF | 8.5 | 16.4 | 24.8 | 34% |
| NE | 11.2 | 12.7 | 23.8 | 47% |
| NYJ | 10.6 | 10.3 | 20.9 | 51% |
| LAC | 3.3 | 13.6 | 16.8 | 19% |
| NFL AVG | 12.2 | 20 | 32.2 | 37% |
Slot PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed to the slot in .5 PPR in 2020
Wide PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed to outside wide receivers in .5 PPR in 2020
Total PPG – This represents how many total fantasy points a defense allowed to the wide receiver position in .5 PPR in 2020
% Slot – This represents what percentage of the total fantasy points the defense allowed from the slot in 2020
Key Slot Matchups
Team: Indianapolis Colts
Opponent: Tennessee Titans
Matchup Upgrade: Zach Pascal
Zach Pascal has gotten off to a surprisingly hot start this season finding the end zone three times. Pascal seems to be Carson Wentz’s go to guy when they get close as Pascal leads the team in end zone targets by far in 2021. Another key factor that drives Pascal success is his usage in the slot. This season he leads all Colts WRs in slot routes, targets, and overall production. In week 2 Pascal’s receiving line wasn’t all that impressive with 5-38-1, but when you realize he did it against a Rams DST that allows the 6th fewest points to the slot it actually isn’t a bad day.
This week’s matchup isn’t as daunting as the Colts take on the Titans in week 3. The Titans have surrendered a league high 30 points per game to the slot this season. This includes big slot performances from Tyler Lockett (3-121-1) and Christian Kirk (5-70-2). Currently ranked as the WR58 on the week, Pascal should be viewed as a solid WR3 in week 3.
Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Opponent: Arizona Cardinals
Matchup Upgrade: Laviska Shenault
After suffering a shoulder injury in week 2, Laviska Shenault looks to be in line to start this week. Last week was a disaster for Shenault as he generated -3 yards on 7 targets. No joke that made him the first player in NFL history to draw more than five targets and fail to gain any yards (Source: NBC Sports). This production shouldn’t have been all that surprising vs. the Broncos who have allowed the third fewest points to the slot so far in 2021. Granted the production hasn’t been there for him, but his 16 targets through 2 weeks is tied for 18th among WRs.
The production should finally break through this week as the Jaguars take on the Arizona Cardinals who have allowed the 5th most points to the slot this season. This includes a big performance from K.J. Osborn 5-91-1 in week 2. Currently ranked as the WR47 on Fantasy Pros ECR, expect Shenault to be a solid top 36 WR in PPR this week.
Team: Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars
Matchup Downgrade: Christian Kirk
Christian Kirk has bounced back in a big way after a disappointing 2020 as he currently sits as the WR20. Kirk dominated week 1 going for a ridiculous 5-70-2. The next week he came back down to earth only catching 3-65 vs. the Vikings in week 2. The Cardinals surprisingly have a lot of depth with the emergence of Rondale Moore, A.J. Green and Maxx Williams all seeing more targets than Kirk in week 2. This could make Kirk more of a matchup based player as he now spends nearly 90% of his routes on the inside.
In week 3 the matchup vs. Jacksonville seems great as the Jaguars have allowed big games to Courtland Sutton (9-159) and Brandin Cooks (5-132). However, so far in 2021 the Jaguars have locked up the slot allowing the 8th fewest points on the inside in 2021. After a slower week 2, it will probably be easier to keep Kirk on your bench in week 3.
Key Perimeter Matchups
Team: Indianapolis Colts
Opponent: Tennessee Titans
Matchup Upgrade: Michael Pittman
Yes, the classic double dip as another Colts WRs makes the cut for week 3. Michael Pittman as emerged as the clear alpha in the offense pacing the team in routes, targets and production early on in 2021. This includes a huge performance against a tough Rams DST securing 8-106. Pittman has yet to find the end zone this season, but it’s not for the lack of trying as he leads the Colts in red zone looks with 5 through two weeks.
This week the Colts take on the Titans who have allowed the most PPG to WRs overall and the 5th most to outside WRs on the season. This includes huge games from DeAndre Hopkins (6-83-2) and Tyler Lockett (8-178-1). Currently ranked as the WR39 on the week, Pittman should be able to put up WR2 numbers as long as Carson Wentz plays in week 3.
Team: Buffalo Bills
Opponent: Washington Football Team
Matchup Upgrade: Emmanuel Sanders
The Bills passing game hasn’t been lighting the league on fire just yet as Josh Allen is only 27th in passing yards through two games. This has led to a slower start for some of the key pieces in the passing game. Emmanuel Sanders is one of those key pieces as he has run the second most routes and has seen the third most targets on the team through two games. It is clear that Sanders’ production hasn’t caught up to his usage. For example, Sanders leads the team in deep targets, but has yet to catch one. Also, Sanders is second on the team in red zone and end zone targets but has yet to catch a TD on the year.
Heading into week 3 that could all change as the Bills face a surprisingly struggling Washington Football Team Defense. WFT has allowed the 8th most points to outside WRs including secondary WRs Mike Williams (8-82-1) and Darius Slayton (3-54-1) both hitting double digit fantasy points. Currently ranked as the WR55, Sanders is an interesting DFS play and WR3 in deeper leagues this week.
Team: Denver Broncos
Opponent: New York Jets
Matchup Downgrade: Courtland Sutton
Courtland Sutton emerged as the clear #1 WR after the injury to Jerry Jeudy. Sutton dominated the Jaguars producing 9-159 on 12 targets. The issue with chasing that production is the Jaguars are one of the most outside WR heavy defenses. Currently Jacksonville allows 76% of their fantasy production to outside WRs which is the 5th highest rate in the NFL. This is a huge difference vs. the Broncos week 3 opponent the Jets who only allow 49% of their WR production out wide. This has led the Jets to allow the fewest fantasy points to perimeter WRs so far in 2021.
Currently ranked as the WR24 on FantasyPros, Sutton is still on the flex radar as he completely dominated targets in week 2. That being said, the Jets held down D.J. Moore for (6-80) who has since dominated (8-79-1) and (8-126). Overall, this matchup could make Sutton a fade for week 3.
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Sources: Razzball, Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, FFToday, FantasyPros and Football Outsiders
