Key Out Wide Matchups For Week 4
The goal of this article is to find WRs to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide. In today’s article we will review the key out wide matchups for week 4.
The below chart breaks down where each team allows their fantasy points to WRs and is listed from the most to the least amount of fantasy points allowed out wide to WRs this season.
| Team | Slot PPG | Wide | Total | % Slot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 13.4 | 42.3 | 55.7 | 24% |
| WSH | 15.8 | 27.4 | 43.2 | 37% |
| TEN | 21.9 | 20.5 | 42.4 | 52% |
| MIN | 14.5 | 25.7 | 40.2 | 36% |
| IND | 15.3 | 22.8 | 38.1 | 40% |
| PIT | 14.6 | 22.5 | 37.1 | 39% |
| DAL | 11 | 25.5 | 36.5 | 30% |
| CHI | 14.6 | 21.1 | 35.7 | 41% |
| ARI | 13.7 | 20.1 | 33.8 | 40% |
| ATL | 12.1 | 21.2 | 33.3 | 36% |
| NYG | 8.4 | 24.9 | 33.3 | 25% |
| JAX | 11.3 | 21.3 | 32.6 | 35% |
| CIN | 12.9 | 19.6 | 32.5 | 40% |
| KC | 9.6 | 22.9 | 32.5 | 30% |
| NO | 13.4 | 18.6 | 32 | 42% |
| SEA | 11.6 | 20.1 | 31.7 | 36% |
| LAR | 9 | 22 | 31 | 29% |
| MIA | 18.3 | 11.8 | 30.1 | 61% |
| DET | 10 | 19.6 | 29.6 | 34% |
| BAL | 18.5 | 10.9 | 29.4 | 63% |
| LV | 11.2 | 17.9 | 29.1 | 38% |
| SF | 10.8 | 17.6 | 28.4 | 38% |
| HOU | 10.5 | 15.3 | 25.8 | 41% |
| DEN | 5 | 20.5 | 25.5 | 20% |
| GB | 6.3 | 17.8 | 24.1 | 26% |
| CLE | 10.5 | 13.4 | 23.9 | 44% |
| CAR | 4.3 | 19.5 | 23.8 | 18% |
| NE | 10.8 | 11.3 | 22.1 | 49% |
| NYJ | 8.5 | 12.7 | 21.2 | 40% |
| PHI | 8.5 | 12.1 | 20.6 | 41% |
| BUF | 6.7 | 13.7 | 20.4 | 33% |
| LAC | 8.4 | 11.1 | 19.5 | 43% |
| NFL AVG | 11.6 | 19.5 | 31.1 | 38% |
Wide PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed on the outside to wide receivers in .5 PPR in 2021
Slot PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed to the slot in .5 PPR in 2021
Total PPG – This represents how many total fantasy points a defense allowed to the wide receiver position in .5 PPR in 2021
% Slot – This represents what percentage of the total fantasy points the defense allowed from the slot in 2021
Out Wide Matchup Upgrades
Team: Dallas Cowboys
Opponent: Carolina Panthers
Matchup Upgrade: Amari Cooper
After coming out of the gates white hot, Amari Cooper is coming off back-to-back games with under 6 PPR fantasy points. These games came against two of the better out wide defenses vs. WRs. The Chargers in week 2 allow the 2nd fewest points to outside WRs. The Cowboys week 3 opponent the Eagles weren’t much easier as they have allowed the 5th fewest points to outside WRs so far in 2021. This probably helps to explain why Cooper went from 13-139-2 vs. the Buccaneers to under 30 yards in weeks 2/3.
This week the production should change as they Cowboys square off vs. the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers have been league average this season vs. out wide WRs. However, when you dive into their opponents you can see why Cooper can have a much better day. Through three weeks the Panthers have faced two notable WRs. In week 1 Corey Davis had 5-97-2 and in Week 3 Brandin Cooks secured 9-112. After two slower games, we suggest you get Cooper back in your lineups for Week 3.
Team: Cleveland Browns
Opponent: Minnesota Vikings
Matchup Upgrade: Odell Beckham, Jr.
With Jarvis Landry on short term IR, Odell Beckham, Jr. put on his water wings and jumped right into the deep end. Beckham in his first game in 2021 paced the Browns in routes, targets (9) and Yards (77). This is an encouraging sign for his fantasy value moving forward as Beckham will be given the opportunity to be the WR1 right away.
This week the Browns take on Kevin Stefanski’s former team the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings this season have allowed the third most points to outside WRs at 25.7 PPG. This includes big games from D.K. Metcalf (6-107-1) and Ja’Marr Chase (5-101-1). Last week we talked about Patrick Peterson as a potential shadow CB, but through 3 weeks Peterson has played 97% of his snaps on one side of the field. That means Beckham will have plenty of opportunities vs. the other CBs. Currently ranked as the WR25 according to Fantasy Pros ECR, start him with confidence as a WR2/flex in week 4.
Team: Philadelphia Eagles
Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs
Matchup Upgrade: DeVonta Smith
Rookie DeVonta Smith is off to a bit of a rocky start as he currently sits as the WR56 through week 3. After an encouraging week 1 performance of 6-71-1, Smith has failed to top 30 yards in back-to -back games. The Cowboys game was slightly disappointing as they do allow the 4th most points to outside WRs. The issue for Smith was he was shadowed for most of the day by Trevon Diggs who through week 3 has the highest PFF coverage grade.
This week Smith will not another shot to take advantage of a solid matchup as the Eagles take on the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs allow the 6th most fantasy points out wide to WRs through week 3. Kansas City only has 1 CB inside the top 50 in PFF coverage grades which is L’Jarius Sneed at 49. Finally, game flow should be on the Eagles side as Patrick Mahomes and company are expected to put up points. This will mostly likely lead to plenty of volume for the Eagles making Smith a solid start in week 4.
Out Wide Matchup Downgrades
Team: Denver Broncos
Opponent: Baltimore Ravens
Matchup Downgrade: Courtland Sutton
Last week we broke down Courtland Sutton’s matchup against the Jets as a potential fade coming off his big game against the Jaguars. Sutton didn’t disappoint as he laid an egg only catching 5-37 on the week. We could look back on the Jaguars game and say that is an outlier as the Jaguars defense has been dominated by opposing #1 WRs all season. This includes solid games from Sutton (9-159), Brandin Cooks (5-132) and Ja’Marr Chase (6-77).
This week the Broncos take on another tough opponent in the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens so far this season have allowed the fewest points out wide to WRs in 2021. This has led to an insane 63% of their fantasy points allowed going to the slot. Notable WRs Tyreek Hill (3-14) and Henry Ruggs (2-46) had their worst games vs. the Ravens this season. Currently ranked as the WR22 according to Fantasy Pros ECR, Sutton shouldn’t be viewed as more than a low-end WR3 in week 4.
Team: Indianapolis Colts
Opponent: Miami Dolphins
Matchup Downgrade: Michael Pittman, Jr.
Michael Pittman, Jr. has lived up to the billing this year stepping in for T.Y. Hilton as the WR1 for the Colts. Pittman currently leads the Colts in routes, targets (25) and yards (220). The issue for Pittman and his fantasy owners is he has yet to find the end zone in 2021. A lot of this has to do with when the Colts get in close, Carson Wentz tends to focus on Zach Pascal. Pascal has 5 end zone targets to only 1 for Pittman. On the flip side Pittman does have the same number of red zone targets and receptions as Pascal. At some point there will be regression for both these players which is a good thing for Pittman.
In week 4 Pittman will have his toughest test yet as he faces off vs. the Dolphins top CBs Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. The Dolphins top CB duo has allowed the 4th fewest points to WRs on the outside. This includes a much better performance vs. Stefon Diggs (4-60-1) after he ate their lunch in 2020 for a combined 15-229-1 in 2 games. Currently ranked as the WR34, Pittman might be best left on benches in week 4.
Team: Houston Texans
Opponent: Buffalo Bills
Matchup Downgrade: Brandin Cooks
Can we all just come out and admit we were dead wrong about the Houston Texans? Offensive Coordinator Tim Kelly had Tyrod Taylor looking like a pro-bowler before his injury. Kelly has done an amazing job designing an offense to feature his best player in Brandin Cooks. Cooks through the first 3 week is 4th in the NFL targets and sits as the WR6 in fantasy. Even Davis Mills understands when in doubt just throw it to Cooks as he targeted him 11 times on 28 attempts in week 3.
Even though, the Texans are a feel-good story it’s about to come to an end this week vs. the Bills. The Bills are allowing the second fewest points to WRs in 2021. This is spear headed by top CB Tre’Davious White who looks to be settling in as the Bills top shadow CB. White has done his part shutting down opposing #1s holding Terry McLaurin (4-62) and Diontae Johnson (5-36-1) outside the top 24 in those weeks. Currently ranked as a top 24 WR on the week, it best to view Cooks as a low-end WR3 for week 4.
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Sources: Razzball, Pro Football Focus, FantasyPros, Pro Football Reference, FFToday, and Football Outsiders
