Defense Slot vs. Wide Analysis – NFC Home Games Week 2
If you haven’t read the first article from week 1 Click Here. That article provides the overview on what we are doing for this article. The goal of this article is to find wide receivers to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide.
The below chart outlines all the teams that are featured in the NFC home games in week 2 and listed by how many total fantasy points they allowed to the wide receiver position this season.
| Team | Slot PPG | Wide PPG | Total PPG | % Slot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 11.7 | 50.1 | 61.8 | 19% |
| TEN | 37.1 | 20 | 57.1 | 65% |
| CHI | 21.7 | 27.6 | 49.3 | 44% |
| CIN | 27.7 | 20.3 | 48 | 58% |
| DET | 7.2 | 32.7 | 39.9 | 18% |
| MIN | 11.3 | 26.6 | 37.9 | 30% |
| CAR | 7.2 | 29.3 | 36.5 | 20% |
| ATL | 15.9 | 17.9 | 33.8 | 47% |
| SEA | 15.5 | 13.7 | 29.2 | 53% |
| ARI | 15.8 | 11.2 | 27 | 59% |
| SF | 3.3 | 21.9 | 25.2 | 13% |
| GB | 2.9 | 20.7 | 23.6 | 12% |
| NO | 10.1 | 12.4 | 22.5 | 45% |
| PHI | 1.6 | 13.7 | 15.3 | 10% |
| NFL AVG | 13.8 | 20.5 | 35.1 | 39% |
Slot PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allows to the slot in .5 PPR in 2021
Wide PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allows to wide receivers out wide in .5 PPR in 2021
Total PPG – This represents how many total fantasy points a defense allows to the wide receiver position in .5 PPR in 2021
% Slot – This represents the percentage of the total wide receiver fantasy points that comes from the slot for that defense in 2021
KEY SLOT MATCHUPS
Team: Cincinnati Bengals
Opponent: Chicago Bears
Matchup Upgrade: Tyler Boyd
In week 1 Tyler Boyd was the odd man out as he saw both Ja’Marr Chase (5-101-1) and Tee Higgins (4-58-1) get it done vs. the Vikings. Even though it didn’t show in the stat sheet Boyd was heavily involved as he tied for second on the team in routes and only ran 3 less than Chase on the week. Another key factor for the lack of involvement was the Bengals leaned on Joe Mixon. Mixon’s 29 carries were two more than the 27 pass attempts Joe Burrow had on the week. In 2020 Burrow only fell below 35 pass attempts once in the 10 full games he played. This projected increase in pass volume should help Boyd bounce back in week 2.
More important than just the projected increase in pass volume is the matchup. Last week Boyd squared off vs. former teammate Mackensie Alexander who limited opponents to the 4th fewest points from the slot in 2020. In week 2 Boyd faces the Bears who allowed the 5th most points to the slot last week. This includes a league-high 85 slot yards allowed from inside cornerback Marqui Christian.
Team: Chicago Bears
Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals
Matchup Upgrade: Allen Robinson
After week 1 Allen Robinson led the Bears in slot routes with 17 while seeing 40% of his total routes from the inside. Typically, we would say that it was a good thing that Robinson played more on the inside. Unfortunately, the Rams game plan was smart and they featured their top two cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams in the slot. This forced Robinson to see the toughest coverage all days from the Rams.
Things should open up for Robinson in week 2 as he has a much softer matchup vs. Cincinnati slot CB Mike Hilton. Hilton allowed the 4th most receptions (6), yards (65) and a score to the Vikings in week 1. This was the reason why the Bengals as a team allowed the 3rd most points to the slot last week. Start Robinson with confidence in week 2.
Team: Philadelphia Eagles
Opponent: San Francisco 49ers
Matchup Downgrade: DeVonta Smith
DeVonta Smith isn’t a slot wide receiver so what gives? This call is probably our most controversial of the week as Smith played only 18% of his snaps inside. The key here is of his 6-71-1 receiving line 4-44-1 came from the slot position. The production came vs. a Falcons DST that allowed the third-highest passer rating to the slot in week 1.
This week the Eagles will face a 49ers secondary that allowed the 4th fewest points to the slot in week 1. Granted Amon Ra St. Brown and company didn’t pose the biggest threat, but it is notable nonetheless. Smith will still be featured as the Eagles #1 and with the injuries to the 49ers secondary he is still a flex play. All that being said the rookie is far from a must-start this week vs. the 49ers.
KEY PERIMETER MATCHUPS
Team: New Orleans Saints
Opponent: Carolina Panthers
Matchup Upgrade: Marquez Callaway
Jameis Winston and the Saints rolled to a 38-3 victory over the Packers in week 1. Winston stole the show with 5 touchdown passes in a game where he only attempted 20. The bad news is even though Winston threw for 5 touchdowns he failed to hit 150 passing yards on the week. This left all Saints receiving options to either feast with a TD or famine without one.
The good news for Marquez Callaway heading into week 2 is he led the team in routes running one on 91% of Jameis Winston’s drop-backs. This week the Saints face a Panthers team that allowed the 5th most points to outside wide receivers in week 1. This includes two touchdowns to Corey Davis which should allow Callaway to jump back into the flex radar for week 2.
Team: Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: Minnesota Vikings
Matchup Upgrade: A.J. Green
There is a very good chance that top Vikings cornerback Patrick Peterson gets the opportunity to shadow DeAndre Hopkins vs. his old team this week. This would then put Vikings second outside cornerback Bashaud Breeland on A.J. Green. Last week Breeland allowed the 5th most yards and was only 1 of 2 players to allow multiple touchdowns in week 1.
We understand Green was an afterthought last week only producing 25 yards on six targets. However, Green operated as the clear #2 running the second-most routes and those six targets were second on the team. We should expect Christian Kirk to have a much tougher time vs. solid slot CB Mackensie Alexander meaning Green could be a solid flex option for week 2.
Team: Tennessee Titans
Opponent: Seattle Seahawks
Matchup Downgrade: Julio Jones
The Titans offense was out of sorts last week as Ryan Tannehill struggled playing from behind most of the day. The game flow should have been perfect for players like Julio Jones and A.J. Brown to feast. Instead, neither Brown nor Jones went over 50 yards with the former luckily finding the end zone to save his fantasy day. To make matters worse Titans WR3 Chester Rodgers had more receptions (4) and yards (62) than Jones. Of course, we don’t expect that to continue, but it might take some time for Jones to gel with his new QB.
This week the Titans will face a Seahawks DST that has really turned it on since the second half of 2020. After week 9 Seattle only allowed 6 WRs to hit double-digit fantasy points in .5 PPR with only 1 going over 12 points in a game during that stretch. This includes limiting outside WRs Michael Pittman (3-29) and Parris Campbell (1-24) in week 1. Yes, Zach Pascal caught two TDs, but none of the Indy WRs got over 50 yards. This makes Jones a risky flex play in week 2.
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Sources: Razzball, Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, FFToday, and Football Outsiders
