Defense Slot vs. Wide Analysis –
NFC Home Games Week 3
If you haven’t read the intro to defense slot vs. wide analysis then dive in now. That article provides an overview of what we are doing for this article. The goal of this article is to find wide receivers to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide.
The below chart outlines all the teams that are featured in the NFC home games in week 3 and listed by how many total fantasy points they allowed to the wide receiver position this season.
| Team | Slot PPG | Wide PPG | Total PPG | % Slot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 9.1 | 46 | 55.1 | 17% |
| MIN | 17.9 | 28.3 | 46.1 | 39% |
| DAL | 14.3 | 27.7 | 41.9 | 34% |
| BAL | 24.6 | 13.1 | 37.6 | 65% |
| ATL | 17.1 | 19.5 | 36.6 | 47% |
| NYG | 10.7 | 21.7 | 32.4 | 33% |
| DET | 7.6 | 22.8 | 30.3 | 25% |
| SEA | 10.4 | 17.3 | 27.6 | 38% |
| LAR | 7.3 | 18.4 | 25.7 | 28% |
| GB | 6.1 | 17.5 | 23.5 | 26% |
| SF | 3.5 | 17.5 | 21 | 17% |
| PHI | 8.4 | 11.4 | 19.8 | 42% |
| NFL AVG | 12.2 | 20 | 32.2 | 37% |
Slot PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed to the slot in .5 PPR in 2020
Wide PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed to outside wide receivers in .5 PPR in 2020
Total PPG – This represents how many total fantasy points a defense allowed to the wide receiver position in .5 PPR in 2020
% Slot – This represents what percentage of the total fantasy points the defense allowed from the slot in 2020
Key Slot Matchups
Team: Detroit Lions
Opponent: Baltimore Ravens
Matchup Upgrade: Amon-Ra St. Brown
The top interior receiver on the Detroit Lions is of course T.J. Hockenson, but through two weeks Amon-Ra St. Brown deserves a shoutout. The production hasn’t been there yet for the rookie so far in 2021 as he has only 5-41 on the season. However, his usage has been very consistent as he is clearly the #3 on the team in routes in back-to-back weeks. The early season schedule hasn’t been great for interior WRs in Detroit as they faced off vs. the Packers who allow the 5th fewest points to slot and the 49ers who allow the 2nd fewest.
This week things change drastically as the Lions will face off vs. the Baltimore Ravens who have allowed the second-most points to the slot so far in 2021. This includes very solid PPR performances from slot WRs Hunter Renfrow (6-70) and the Chiefs duo of Byron Pringle/Mecole Hardman combined for (6-93-1). You are probably reading that thinking “what are you doing you can’t combine two players”, well we can and we did. But more importantly, the Chiefs split slot work while St. Brown has 7/8 WR slot targets in 2021. St. Brown isn’t a start in shallow 10 team leagues but if you need a second flex in deeper PPR formats, St. Brown should be on your radar.
Team: New York Giants
Opponent: Atlanta Falcons
Matchup Upgrade: Sterling Shepard
At this point, Sterling Shepard is approaching must start category as he is off to an insane start in 2021. Shepard is tied for 12th among WRs in targets with 19 and currently sits as the WR11 on the year. The issue is most managers got him so late that he hasn’t been started. According to ESPN.com starting % Shepard was only started in 37.5 of leagues last week. Knowing our strong influence on the fantasy community we can definitely make a strong push to 37.6% in week 3.
This week the Giants take on the Atlanta Falcons defense that has allowed the 6th most points to the slot in 2021. This includes solid games from DeVonta Smith who caught (4-44-1) from the inside and Chris Godwin who secured 3-46-1 just last week. This season Shepard has run 75% of his routes and has seen 58% of his targets on the inside. Based on this matchup Shepard is looking like a near must start for week 3.
Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opponent: Los Angeles Rams
Matchup Downgrade: Chris Godwin
Did you ever start saying/writing something knowing it could be a terrible idea and that little guy in the back of your mind is screaming DON’T DO IT YOU IDIOT? NO? Neither did we which is why we are discussing Chris Godwin as a fade this week knowing Antonio Brown is out due to COVID. First off, don’t get me wrong last year when AB was out in the NFC title game, Godwin was solid securing 5-110. However, it wasn’t like other guys didn’t get involved. In that game backup players like Cameron Brate, Scotty Miller, and Tyler Johnson saw 10 of 36 Tom Brady attempts.
Now knowing Godwin might not be in for a 15 target game, let’s talk about the matchup. The Rams allow the 6th fewest points to inside WRs. This is a big difference from the Bucs’ first two games (Dallas and Atlanta) who are both inside the top 12 in most slot points allowed. This has a lot to do with the Rams’ use of top cornerback Jalen Ramsey as he looks to be the slot CB. That is right, according to PFF Ramsey leads all Rams in slot coverage snaps with 48 which is over 50% of his coverage snaps on the season. Overall, in deeper leagues, Godwin’s volume should keep him fantasy relevant, but in shallow leagues, he might be a player to fade.
Key Perimeter Matchups
Team: Los Angeles Rams
Opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matchup Upgrade: Robert Woods
They always say don’t use “I” when writing an article, but I am going to break the cardinal rule for this section. If you listen to my podcast The Candlestick Kids or read any of my other articles you know I have planted my flag on Robert Woods in week 3. In 2021 Woods has taken a clear backseat to Cooper Kupp, seeing 12 targets to 20 for Kupp while only producing 8-91-1 on the season. This has resulted in Woods being outside the top 40 WRs heading into week 3. A bigger issue for Woods has been the lack of pass volume overall as Stafford is 27th in the NFL in drop-backs so far this season.
All this should change in week 3 as the Rams take on the Tampa Buccaneers. The Bucs have allowed the most fantasy points to outside WRs so far in 2021. Their 46 PPG allowed is 62% higher than the next team on the list the Vikings at 28.3. This includes big games from Amari Cooper (13-139-2), Ceedee Lamb (7-104-1), and Calvin Ridley (7-63-1). Woods himself dominated the Bucs last season securing 12-130-1. In short, start Robert Woods this week.
Team: Seattle Seahawks
Opponent: Minnesota Vikings
Matchup Upgrade: Freddie Swain
The injury (concussion) for rookie Dee Eskridge has opened the door for Freddie Swain to emerge as the WR3 for the Seahawks. Last week Swain caught all 5 his targets for 5-95-1. Outside of the stud duo of Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, Swain was the only other player to see over 2 targets. More importantly only 5 players saw a target on the week. This concentrated target distribution should help keep Swain’s target share high enough to have good games in good matchups.
That good game could happen once again as the Seahawks face off vs. a Vikings DST that has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to WRs on the outside in 2021. Another key factor for Swain in this equation is the potential shadow coverage matchup between Metcalf and Patrick Peterson. Peterson has done pretty well vs. Metcalf from his days in Arizona holding him down to (0-0), (1-6), (2-23), and (3-46-1) in their 4 matchups. Please don’t read that and sit Metcalf, but do read that and think if Metcalf does has a bad day this kid might be a genius (JK). Overall, all of this could lead to a big day for Swain as solid flex play in week 3.
Team: Dallas Cowboys
Opponent: Philadelphia Eagles
Matchup Downgrade: Amari Cooper
Amari Cooper came out of week 1 looking like a potential league winner. In week 2 the Cowboys’ passing game came back down to earth with Dak Prescott only throwing for 237 yards and no TDs. This came vs. a Chargers DST that was down top CB Chris Harris. Through two weeks the Chargers have allowed a league-low 16.8 PPG to WRs which is directly related to Cooper’s slow game of 3-24. Also, it doesn’t help that Cooper got hurt in week 2 suffering a rib injury. The good news for Cooper owners is he was a full participant in Friday’s practice.
This takes us to the Cowboys’ week 3 opponent the Eagles who under new DC Jonathan Gannon has reshaped their secondary. The Eagles have allowed the second-fewest points to WRs and the lowest amount of points to outside WRs so far this season. This includes holding top WRs Calvin Ridley (5-51) and Deebo Samuel (6-93) outside the top 24. Cooper is still a flex play in week 3, but he’s probably a fade for DFS and non-PPR formats for week 3.
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Sources: Razzball, Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, Fantasy Pros, FFToday, and Football Outsiders
