Oh, the first week of the playoffs, and it is going to be a doozy. There is a Thursday game. There are three games on Saturday, and after the Sunday slate, you have the Monday night extravaganza.
Last week, there were several unfortunate injuries. Defenses are getting harder to attack with unpredictable performances from some players. We are looking at you, Zach Wilson—good on you, young man.
Let’s attack!
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Attack of the Quarterback
Do we dare go back to the well?
Russell Wilson @ Detroit Lions -5.0, 47.5 o/u
Wilson and his wife Ciara just had a baby girl. It’s time to celebrate, and what better way to celebrate than with a fantasy win? That may be slightly selfish, but it is the fantasy playoffs.
Now, the best part is that the Lions’ defense is broken. Last week, Justin Fields threw for 223 yards and a touchdown. In Week 13, Derek Carr threw for 226 yards, a touchdown (and an interception). And in Week 12, Jordan Love threw for 268 yards and three touchdowns.
That’s the good news. The less good news is that Wilson has been capable but hasn’t blown the bloomers off our fantasy hopes. Wilson is currently sitting at QB14. He has amassed 16.5, 18.8, and 16.8 fantasy points in his last three games. He has had only two fantasy games over 20 fantasy points.
And, of course, there is the fact that the Denver Broncos throw the ball the third-fewest amounts (on average) 29.1. Even though Wilson had 33 passing attempts last week, he is remarkably consistent in his home and away splits, passing for an average of 29.3 times when away.
But even last week, when Wilson had 33 passing attempts, he threw for 224 yards with two passing touchdowns and one interception, and that was good for only 16.5 fantasy points.
Of course, there are much better matchups, but you are already playing them: Matthew Stafford v Washington Commanders and Sam Howell at the Los Angeles Rams. And if you are feeling ambitious Geno Smith (if healthy) will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are giving up 25.5 fantasy points a game and 2.2 passing touchdowns.
Attack of the Running Back
Zack Moss v Pittsburgh Steelers, Colts -2.5, 42.5 o/u
I know it has been two weeks, and Moss has been a slight disappointment in Smash Spots. In Week 13, the Colts took the Titans to overtime, and Moss averaged 2.7 yards per carry. Last week against the Cincinnati Bengals, Moss averaged 2.2 yards per carry in yet another Smash spot. This is less than ideal.
Now Moss goes against the Steelers, who just surrendered RB1 numbers to a suddenly rejuvenated Ezekiel Elliott (27 points). Meanwhile, Moss finished as RB29 with 9.6 fantasy points.
It has been a minute since Moss was fantasy-relevant. In Weeks 2,3 and 5, Moss scored 22.5, 20.7, and 33.5 fantasy points. Since then, he has scored less than 10 fantasy points. In fact, after their Bye week, he has had 9.0, 7.7, and 9.0 fantasy points.
It is a huge, gigantic, monstrous leap of faith. The good news (for some) is that stud running backs have great matchups this week. The bottom five teams against the running backs all have sweet matchups.
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery play the Denver Broncos (21.6), Najee Harris and Jaylen Waddle go against the Indianapolis Colts (20.4), Christian McCaffrey will go against the Arizona Cardinals (21.5) and Bijan Robinson will go against the Carolina Panthers (21.1).
(Numbers in parentheses are the average number of fantasy points the team surrenders to the opposing running back.)
Attack of the Wide Receiver
Romeo Doubs -3.5 v Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 41.5 o/u
In Razzball’s slot versus wide report, The Tampa Bay Buccaneers give away 37.6 fantasy points per game. Sixty-nine percent of those points are going to the wide receiver. Last week that equaled 29.9 fantasy points to WR2 Drake London.
Doubs has acquired 84% of his fantasy points out wide. Jayden Reed has received 74% of his fantasy points in the slot and 26% out wide.
Last week, the Packers’ receivers did not fare well against the New York Giants. Reed led in targets with 10, and Doubs had seven targets. Neither did well. Doubs had four receptions for 32 yards. Reed had eight receptions and 27 yards with one touchdown.
This is a bounce-back attack. The Buccaneers surrendered 69 receiving yards to the anemic Carolina Panthers, Jonathan Mingo. The week before that, Indianapolis Colts’ Michael Pittman collected 107 receiving yards on 10 receptions.
Doubs is the outside threat, and Reed is the slot guy—attack with Doubs. I feel confident playing Reed.
Attack of the Tight Ends
Can we all just agree the range of outcomes for the tight end is…weird. For instance, Evan Engram scored his first touchdown in Week 13. Next week, Engram is against the Cleveland Browns, who only gave up one touchdown to the tight end position all season. And then Yahtzee Engram scores two touchdowns.
|
Name |
Routes % |
Targets |
Opponent |
Opponent Yards/Game to Tight End |
Opponents Fantasy Points/Game |
Rank |
|
David Njoku |
54.5% |
84 |
Chicago Bears |
45.3 |
6.2 |
17th |
|
Jake Ferguson |
58.4% |
66 |
Buffalo Bills |
43.9 |
5.2 |
9th |
|
T.J. Hockenson |
64.1% |
108 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
71.9 |
9.0 |
32nd |
|
Travis Kelce |
64.3% |
93 |
New England Patriots |
38.4 |
3.8 |
3rd |
|
Evan Engram |
67% |
91 |
Baltimore Ravens |
41.1 |
4.8 |
8th |
|
Logan Thomas |
68.7% |
63 |
Los Angeles Rams |
62.2 |
8.5 |
30th |
|
Dalton Kincaid |
69.6% |
64 |
Dallas Cowboys |
42.8 |
6.5 |
19th |
The number of routes run for tight ends must be just as important as the opponents’ yards and fantasy points per game they give up—the number of targets each tight end receives.
Attacking the Rams with Thomas is a good play.
