Derrick Henry Outlook for 2020 Fantasy Football

I’m taking a break from my 2020 dynasty rankings to bring you an article about large sweaty men pounding on other equally sweaty men. If you found this page by Googling, “pounding sweaty men,” then welcome, you’re in the right place!

Running back is the fantasy position which takes the greatest wear on the body. But is the total number of carries a running back receives in any given season predictive of their production in the following season?

This is the question I set out to answer, specifically in regards to The Predator, Derrick Henry. In 2019 the big man rumbled for 1,540 yards and 16 touchdowns on 303 rushing attempts plus 18 catches for 206 yards and 2 touchdowns—posting the 2nd most running back fantasy points in standard scoring and 5th most fantasy points in PPR scoring. Henry also tacked on 83 playoff carries for 446 yards and 2 more touchdowns. This adds up to 386 carries on the season, the 3rd most of any running back in the past 10 seasons. Let’s take a look at the follow-up performances of all other high-volume backs over the past 10 years:

	300+ Rush Att in Regular Season Since 2010								Following Season
Rk	Player	Year	Age	G	Att	Yds	Playoff Att	Total Att	G	Att	Yds
1	DeMarco Murray	2014	26	16	392	1845	44	436	15	193	702
2	Arian Foster	2012	26	16	351	1424	54	405	8	121	524
3	Derrick Henry	2019	25	15	303	1540	83	386	TBD
4	Rashard Mendenhall	2010	23	16	324	1273	61	385	15	228	928
5	Adrian Peterson	2012	27	16	348	2097	22	370	14	279	1266
6	Marshawn Lynch	2013	27	16	301	1257	65	366	16	280	1306
7	Alfred Morris	2012	24	16	335	1613	16	351	16	276	1275
8	Marshawn Lynch	2012	26	16	315	1590	36	351	16	301	1257
9	Ezekiel Elliott	2018	23	15	304	1434	46	350	16	301	1357
10	Michael Turner	2010	28	16	334	1371	10	344	16	301	1340
11	Ezekiel Elliott *	2016	21	15	322	1631	22	344	10	242	983
12	Maurice Jones-Drew	2011	26	16	343	1606	0	343	6	86	414
13	Le’Veon Bell **	2017	25	15	321	1291	16	337	15	245	789
14	Ray Rice	2010	23	16	307	1220	29	336	16	291	1364
15	LeSean McCoy	2013	25	16	314	1607	21	335	16	312	1319
16	Steven Jackson	2010	27	16	330	1241	0	330	15	260	1045
17	Arian Foster	2010	24	16	327	1616	0	327	13	278	1224
18	Adrian Peterson	2015	30	16	327	1485	0	327	3	37	72
19	Cedric Benson	2010	28	16	321	1111	0	321	15	273	1067
20	Doug Martin	2012	23	16	319	1454	0	319	6	127	456
21	Michael Turner	2011	29	16	301	1340	15	316	16	222	800
22	Chris Johnson	2010	25	16	316	1364	0	316	16	262	1047
23	LeSean McCoy	2014	26	16	312	1319	0	312	12	203	895
24	Ezekiel Elliott	2019	24	16	301	1357	0	301	TBD
	Average			15.83	324	1462			13.23	233	974
	Minus 2016 Zeke Outlier			15.87	324	1455			13.38	232	974

* missed 6 games in following season due to suspension
**held out in 2018, following season column numbers are from 2019

So what’s it all mean?

I’ll qualify the results by saying this a relatively small sample, but the numbers are interesting nonetheless. Excluding Zeke’s suspension shortened 2017 outlier season, nine of the 21 running backs (43%) who handled 300+ carries over the past 10 seasons failed to tally 250 carries in the following season; and those same nine player were also unable to total 1,000 rushing yards in those seasons. Five of the 21 backs (24%) didn’t reach 200 carries in the next season, six of 21 (29%) fell shy of 800 rushing yards and four (19%) came up short of 600 yards.

On the flip side, nine of our 21 RBs (43%) reached 1,200 rushing yards in their encore, 10 of them (48%) reached 270 carries and four (19%) even reached 300 carries again the next year. None of those 21 running backs saw an increase in attempts—although Zeke was only three carries shy in 2019 and McCoy only two carries shy in 2014. Interestingly enough, two of the 21 RBs actually saw an increase in yardage in the following season—Lynch in 2014 (+49 yards) and Rice in 2011 (+144 yards).

But on average, the 300+ carry workhorses saw a 16% decrease in games played, 28% decrease in carries and 33% decrease in rushing yards in the next season. None of these numbers are shocking; for a running back to reach 300 carries, a near full season is required and it’s not easy to string multiple healthy season’s together at such a physically demanding position.

Looking to Derrick Henry’s specific case, including the playoffs, only four other backs in the past 10 seasons have handled 370+ carries. Of those four players, only one (2013 Adrian Peterson) reached 230 carries and 1,000 rushing yards and two of the other three fell short of 200 carries. On average those four RBs played 13 games with 205 rushes for 855 yards in the next year.

Now before you going jump out the window because 1) your 401K is now worth less than your used 2013 Prius and 2) you own Derrick Henry in your keeper league, just remember these are very small samples and not all bodies were created equal (see: Ezekiel Elliott). Henry is a mountain of a man who surely is capable of bulldozing defenses 300 times in back-to-back seasons. And remember, there’s no such thing as a risk free running back. Still, there’s some reason for caution here based on history. Depending on how you read these tea leaves, zagging from Henry in the first round of this year’s fantasy drafts might be worth consideration.

In the next edition we’ll take a look at how Zeke’s incredible three-year workload (893 carries) stacks up against some of the other names on this list. Until then, wash your hands, steer clear of crowds and share your toilet paper—not the used stuff.

All statistics sourced from ProFootballReference.com