Draft Strategy: The First Two Rounds Factor

Back by popular demand I bring you the first two rounds factor.  And by ‘popular’ I mean ‘I’ve never typed this before’ and by ‘demand’ I mean ‘two people commented about how to handle the first two rounds on my Preseason-palooza post from awhile back and how it could dictate the rest of your draft and here’s me humbling obliging’.  See how much less text you have to deal with when I say ‘popular demand’?  You’re welcome.  The reality is how you spend your first two picks has a domino effect on the rest of your draft.  It makes guys who were sleepers or steals worthless pickups or dire needs depending on how you start this silly little game of ours.  So to try and put out as many articles as possible assist you in your drafting journey, I’m here to give you the lowdown on how to handle the rounds beyond depending on what you did for the first two.  So here’s my draft strategy for said sitch for 2013 Fantasy Football…but wait, there’s more!  Ok, not really.  Just me kindly reminding you that we have this whole Razzball Commenter Leagues thing going on.  Nothing big, really, just a way for you to winner a killer Razzball jump suit and to show everyone on Razzball how awesometastic you are.  No bigs.  Oh you’re interested?  Well then go click the link and get started!  And now on with the post…

If you start RB/RB – I applaud you sir/ma’am.  Truly, this is what you want.  Or at least what I want and I want you to want, as I’m wont to do.  In a typical league, you’ve taken care of two of the hardest positions to fill in a given draft – RB1 and RB2 – and you’ve done it right off the bat.  Worried you missed a big name wide receiver?  Well don’t.  Remember Dez Bryant wasn’t a top 5 WR prior to this season.  Nor was AJ Green for that matter.  You’ll just have to ‘make do’ with a lower end wide out.  I see names like Victor Cruz, Roddy White, Randall Cobb, Andre Johnson…wow, I could type names all day here.  Those guys and more are all available at the 26th pick on in yahoo leagues.  In reality, I start RB/RB, I do want to take a wide out in the following round unless for some reason another big RB name falls to me that I just can’t pass up.  But in reality, I’m expecting to draft two wideouts and a running back in the next 5 rounds in this circumstance depending on the value of what’s presented.  At QB, this is probably putting me in line with Romo or maybe Luck which wouldn’t bother me a bit.  You’ll notice I didn’t mention TE.  Once Pitta went down, I stopped seeing extreme value in taking a TE in the first 10 rounds of a standard league with all the late picks available as guys like Vernon zoom up the charts.  Only guy I’d take a chance on at this point given his ADP is Gronk (69 of this typing) but it’s hard to gauge where he’s really going to go in drafts.  In all, this start sets you up best for the draft this year, IMHO.

If you start RB/WR – I don’t hate you, I swear!  I’ve seen Megatron slide too often in the first round.  I ranked him 4th this year and that wasn’t me blowing smoke.  He finished 5th in PPR leagues amongst skill players in fantasy points.  You’re not doing yourself any harm taking him in the first round and you’re not killing yourself taking a receiver from the tier right behind him in the second round but it does create draft approach changes.  Firstly, I think it makes taking an RB in round 3 pretty darn important.  Guys like Lamar Miller, Frank Gore and Reggie Bush are all available here based on ADP but I’m gonna have a moment of honesty with you: I’m the one that farted on your pillow last night and gave you pink eye.  Oops, wrong moment of honesty!  What I was trying to say is I’m the jerk that takes those guys before you get to them cuz I collect RBs like a hoarder collects cardboard boxes filled with Rainbow Bright dolls.  They were like 2 bucks a pop at a garage sale.  Collector’s item!  Don’t judge me.  All I’m trying to say is ADP looks fine and dandy until people start drafting how they want to.  We ain’t robots and we know what our team needs are.  In the end, I’m not trying to scare you off from this strategy as I do think it’s the second best option.  Basically, I still want to leave round 6 with 3 RBs so it puts a crunch on you to solidify your WR2 or your first QB – prefer the WR2 in here – and puts you almost in ‘must draft Romo’ mode unless you want to stream your QB position or draft major upside plays late but that – taking up so many bench spots with QBs – hurts in other ways.  Again, TE is after the 10th – minus a Gronk discount – in this scenario and by the 10th round you can still nab a 4th RB to make me happy because that’s what it’s all about, really.

If you start WR/WR – You’re slightly nuts and I think you did it to spite me.  No, it’s a contrarian take and I appreciate it for that factor.  You’re like trying to be a hipster or something.  I go WR/WR in my drafts…nevermind, you wouldn’t understand.  To be honest, I get the sentiment.  The position has less physical issues associated with it – unless you’re Hakeem Nicks of course – and could net you two top end receivers for the year, relegating your WR3 as borderline moot.  That’s pretty darn impressive.  What’s not so impressive?  Your RB1.  His name is Frank Gore.  Are you excited about this?  In the end, I wouldn’t say it’s a bad strategy at all.  It simply puts pressure on you to draft RBs the rest of the way pretty aggressively and maybe some that you’re not as high on as you would have if you drafted one in the 1st or 2nd round.  I’d say you can all but forget the Gronk discount on this path.  You’ll be too busy making sure you’ve solidified your RBs and your QB to take notice.  Again, not a bad plan but not one I’d employ.  Your first attempt at a WR3 shouldn’t come before the 8th round with this strategy and preferably not before the 10th which gives you room for a shot at Daryl Richardson if he keeps creeping around those parts of the draft.

If you start RB/TE – Ehhhh, basically you just drafted Jimmy Graham in the second round.  Ok, fine, you don’t like anything I have to say.  I don’t hate Graham but I’m not drafting him this year so this sitch you’ve stuck me in kinda chaps my ass.  Ok, not really, it’s viable to an extent but here’s my issue with it.  Graham didn’t even outscore his teammate Colston last year for various reasons and one of the biggest was this: dude plays at a very physical position.  The evolution of the Tight End into becoming a productive position still puts it third in line in my book in terms of drafting because of that.  People want to draft Graham like he’s a WR because of the numbers but as last year with both him and Gronk shows, it doesn’t work that way.  But that’s my little diatribe and nothing to do with strategy.  This is where you are and now you need to know how to approach the  next step.  Your next round should be filled by – and this will surprise you – a WR.  If you read my Wide Receiver Draft Strategy piece earlier this summer, you know well I’m not hip on drafting a bunch of WR2s or lower.  So here I’m taking a wide receiver in the third.  I mentioned what you could get here in the RB/RB scenario so I won’t repeat it.  This puts you in line to battle for RB2 scraps and really leaning on ADP to hold so you can get them.  You can’t reasonably aim for 3 RBs in the first 6 rounds with this scenario.  I mean, you can try but it gets a bit hairy because you still want to draft a WR2 in here somewhere as well.  In theory, you can take the Romo path here but that Graham pick really mucks up any flexibility you could have.  Chances are, you end round 6 with Graham, a QB and 2 RBs and WRs.  Not ideal in my mind.  Hopefully Chris Ivory keeps floating under the radar for that to be deemed reasonable.

So that’s the best directions I can give you.  I didn’t do a QB/Skill position because it’s very unlikely a scenario you should see this year.  QBs are going too late to figure for it and as I’ve already showed from my RB/TE start, it’s a rocky road that only gets rockier, Sloth, and not one you really wanna nor need to trudge down.  And with having cleared 1500 words on this subject I’m spent.  Good night everybody!