For my first foray into the fantasy football draft season, I am going to lean on the @Razzball average draft position (ADP) as of July 17th, 2023. My plan will be to draft from several slots and publish via a few articles. These write-ups will use the most current ADP as of the day I am drafting my article.
Since nobody should use ADP as their end all do all, I will give myself a little latitude of two-up and two-down while building my roster. The last thing I want to do is provide you, the reader, with a mock line-up with four TEs just because that is how the names fell to me in the fourth slot.
Scoring for this mock will be relatively standard with a 12-team league consisting of 1QB, 2 RB, 2WR, 1TE and 1 FLEX (plus five bench players). I will do the smart thing and avoid K and DST, as none of you really care about those during this exercise, and we will certainly cover those two positions during our Sunday morning Start or Sit podcast, which will be back during the season.
I will assume four points per TD pass and six points for all other TDs. One point per 20 points passing and one point per 10 yards rushing/receiving. I will also use full PPR for this draft. I will ignore bye weeks for this draft. During our Sunday morning podcast, we will address questions for all kinds of league scoring systems, including dynasty, Superflex, etc., so tune in and fire off some questions.
Alas, that is still a couple of months away, but we are all getting excited about getting the band back together as @BobbyLaMarco, @SkyGuasco, @Derek_Favret and myself, @Stiles08 will do our best to help you win each week.
Round 1, Pick 1.04 – Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR: With Jefferson and Chase off the board at 1.01 and 1.02 and McCaffrey going third, I am resigned to a WR one season removed from a historic fantasy MVP year. To be honest, I am a little surprised to see him so high on the ADP list since so many fantasy footballers fall into the recency bias trap. This trap would have most drafters forgetting about how amazing Kupp was in 2021, based on him missing so much of the 2022 season. If Matthew Stafford is healthy, then I love this pick. If Stafford sputters or just cannot make it fully back from his injury-riddled 2022 season, then this pick will sting all year.
Round 2, Pick 2.09 – Derrick Henry, RB, TEN: With the addition of DeAndre Hopkins taking some of the load off Henry, I am ecstatic with this selection near the end of the second round. An absolute bell cow RB who has proven to carry fantasy teams in the past is someone I would not pass up here. Henry proved last season he can catch the ball a little, and once in the open field is a nightmare for defenders to tackle. If I was to pivot at this pick, I would have my choice of Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen. Since this is a 1QB league, I am going to pass on QB for now. I will not argue with anyone who selects one of those stud QB at this slot.
Round 3, Pick 3.04 – D.K. Metcalf, WR, SEA: This is my first pivot, and it certainly did not take long. The pick, if using ADP alone, should be Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, NE, but I prefer to get another true WR1 at this spot, and I think Metcalf is that guy. There is a sneaky insider trading reason for this move since I am all about transparency. Since I can look ahead at the ADP board, I can cheat in a way, and I am doing so with the selection of Metcalf because of the name I know I can obtain in the next round.
Round 4, Pick 4.09 – Kenneth Walker III, RB, SEA: Though I am not a big fan of doubling up on Seahawks, I do think this team proved it can score points and will probably need to score a lot to keep up with the 49ers in their division. I like KWIII to have a monster season, and, akin to Kupp, I need him to stay healthy, or my team is likely dead on arrival. The next three names I could have flexed to are D.J. Moore, Joe Mixon, and Terry McLaurin. I am happy to allow someone to draft Moore since I do not trust the right arm of Justin Fields, nor am I a fan of that QB/WR duo being on the same page during the beginning of their first season together. Though I like both Mixon and McLaurin, I feel KWIII is the perfect pick in Round 4. Now I have two of each of the skill positions and can turn my attention to TE and WR3 while watching for values and/or mistakes made by other owners.
Round 5, Pick 5.04 – Justin Fields, QB, CHI: I know, I know, I know…I KNOW!!!!! I just wrote that I do not trust the right arm of Fields. For the most part, I do not trust him as a pure pocket passer. What I do know is the dude can flat-out run, and that skill, especially in a 1QB league, is like a cheat code. I do not normally love a QB this early in the draft, but being transparent again, I had my eye on another Justin…Herbert, who went at Pick 5.03, thus leaving Fields to me. In essence, Fields is like having a mediocre, middle-of-the-pack passing QB and a third RB. As a Packers fan, I usually subscribe to #neverfields, but fantasy football is not about show friends. It is about show business, and I am here to win. Run like crazy Justin Fields….run like crazy!
Round 6, Pick 6.09 – Kyle Pitts: My second pivot is in Round 6, where I pass on D’Andre Swift and Mike Evans to land a freak athlete who I need to have a massive bounce-back in 2023. The Atlanta offense was out of sorts with the departure of Matt Ryan and Arthur Smith, and staff just could not find ways to get the ball to Pitts and Drake London enough. I think that changes in 2023 as I eagerly scoop up Pitts here. My main reason for passing on Swift is the Eagles aspect in that we have not seen a true RB1 in PHI, and Swift is an injury concern I do not want to add to Kupp/KWIII. I am passing on Mike Evans, a guy I usually love to roster based purely on the not-so-great QB names currently on the TB roster (Trask, Baker).
Round 7, Pick 7.04 – George Pickens, WR, PIT: Right on queue, another WR1 drops right into my lap in the form of the guy that appears to have usurped Diontae Johnson at the WR1 for the Steelers. As of today, Johnson is being drafted 12 spots ahead of Pickens. As much as I love Johnson and have rostered him each year since he was a rookie, I am concerned with the low numbers he put up in 2022 (recency bias much?). The wild card with this pick is Kenny Pickett. Can he take the next step and become a viable NFL QB that produces top-flight fantasy WR stats?
Round 8, Pick 8.09 – Evan Engram, TE, JAX: Can you say safety net? Imagine if Engram can replicate his 2022 season in 2023. I would much rather see Cortland Sutton or Quentin Johnston fall by 1-2 spots here, but based on the current ADP, I am comfortable adding Engram as my FLEX and/or as a safety net for Pitts. Effectively, my starting roster is full, and I will next move to filling in bench positions with names that provide value and give me plug-and-play options at the skill positions with a backup QB at some point.
Round 9, Pick 9.04 – Rashod Bateman, WR, BAL: When this pick landed on Bateman, I looked at the player drafted prior to and after him for context. Jameson Williams went one pick prior, and Michael Thomas’ current ADP has him one pick after Bateman. I am sticking with Bateman here but could reasonably draft any of those three names at this slot and be someone pleased. In fact, I prefer to see J. Williams fully healthy to determine if he can bring value similar to his NFL Round 1 draft slot. I would also like to see Michael Thomas prove it this season before I am back in on him. Those things, coupled with a potential resurgence from Lamar Jackson, and I like Bateman just fine here. Of note, if I had a little more leeway in this ADP draft, I may have gone with Samaje Perine, RB, DEN, who is currently being drafted one spot after Thomas.
Round 10, Pick 10.09 – Skyy Moore, WR, KC: This pick is exciting and scary at the same time. Our guy Skyy did not catch his first TD until the biggest game of the season. In fact, he did not factor into the Chiefs’ plans as much as I thought he would with the trade of Tyreek Hill. I think that all changes in 2023, and Skyy makes a jump to WR2 stats. We are hoping Kadarius Toney stays healthy enough to take some coverage, and we know Travis Kelce will command the majority of the defensive attention leaving Moore open more often. I like the one season under his belt and the off-season of learning more while working with Patrick Mahomes. Possible break-out WR candidate here!
Round 11, Pick 11.04 – Devon Achane, RB, MIA: I am hoping Achane slips by two picks here, and I can nab him as my first backup RB. If he does not, I will need to reach for Jerick McKinnon or Elijah Mitchell as opposed to taking my third TE (Chig Okonkwo) or Russell Wilson as my backup QB. As you are painfully aware, RB thins out quickly, and we addressed that early on with Henry and KWIII while also acquiring a running QB as well. Achane is not necessarily needed to start other than a bye week spot start. He should get plenty of runs if he can pick up the Miami offense.
Round 12, Pick 12.09 – Matthew Stafford, QB, LAR: Rounding out my twelve-player lineup (no K/DST) is my backup QB and how interesting that I have bookended LAR players here. Can you imagine the value of a Kupp-Stafford stack if the QB can find the stroke he had during the Rams Super Bowl season? I am certainly not banking on it, but you just never know, and that is why they play the games. Other ADP available QBs at this pick are Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, and Kenny Pickett. I am good with the Stafford selection and can head to the early season waiver wire should he struggle. Based on the 1.04 pick of Kupp, we want Stafford to succeed!
What do we think of this lineup? Are there any reaches you do not like? Is the roster construction one you can live with? Send your thoughts below, and let’s have a discussion.
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-Mitch-
