If you don’t remember from last week, and since most people don’t remember what they had for breakfast I wouldn’t be surprised, we discussed that paying down at QB makes sense unless under extreme circumstances if you are using the rule of 5. If you don’t remember but wish you did, well, here.  The concept revolves directly around how much can you reasonably expect from your QB vs a skill position. Now, Drew Brees scored over 32 this last week. At 8.2K, that was probably the best return you could’ve expected and was close to 4x value. But the second best? Eli Manning with over 27 at 5.8K. Sure, you lost 5 points but you gained 2.4K to spend on skill positions. Skill positions that could score you 39.4 points (Odell Beckham) or 36.7 (Demaryius Thomas). It’s that wiggle room you want to create from QB by playing matchups so you can pay up at the skill positions most weeks. Wanna know who gives me that wiggle this week? Alex Smith. Not that kind of wiggle. Gross. Don’t look at his season stats to weigh his $6,200 price tag. Instead, look back on weeks where KC had to throw to keep in the game. I can already tell you you’re not looking in the right place. That’s his 2014 game log. You’ll find nothing there. Go back nearly a full year to week 12 of 2013 and you’ll see a healthy line against the Broncos where he threw for 293 yards, 2 TDs and ran for 46 yards. Sure, doesn’t sound that exciting but it’s roughly 24 points and gives you the chance to pair with…oh, I’m getting ahead of myself so you’ll just have to read on. Here’s my red hot takes for the week 13 DK slate…
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Tom Brady, QB: $8,400 – This follows the ‘if you’re paying up’ rule at QB. I may or I may not but if I am, I’ll take the QB in a game with an o/u of 57 that’s $1K cheaper than his counterpart. Is Aaron Rodgers amazing? No, he’s a freaking ginsu knife of sheer precision. Amazing just doesn’t cut it (unintended pun…but I’ll take it). Is there a good chance Brady matches A-Rod the whole game? YUP. Heavy exposure to this game makes sense and you’ll see that from my writeup. Overexposure might leave you a little hurting in GPPs. I mean, they don’t call it the frozen tundra for nothing. You really want frostbite down there? GPP or cash
Ryan Tannehill, QB: $6,900 – This ain’t recency bias…ok, it is but not the kind you’re used to. Recently, the Jets have been the Jest, especially against the pass. Tanny scored 27.62 DK points and actually went down $300 this week. Maybe it’s a trap but until General Akbar confirms, I have no problem going Dolphin riding. GPP or cash
Philip Rivers, QB: $6,000 – Rivers regained a little bit of his mojo in week 12, passing for 293 yards. Unfortunately for his owners, it only resulted in one TD as the game never turned into a needed big game from the man of many funny faces. Against a Ravens defense that won’t allow much on the ground but has given up an average of 313/3 through the air over their last three games, you gotta remember you only live once. #BOLO. GPP only
Zach Mettenberger, QB: $5,800 – Fun fact! Zach was almost my lead for this week. Fun fact #2! I might regret he wasn’t but in reality, the match up against Houston is much better for his receivers than it is him. All that said, if the receivers are gonna eat, how does that leave the QB starving? Seriously, that’s my question. Makes no sense when you think about it. For all that talk of eating, let’s just say I’m all in on grabbing a Mettenberger off the value menu. GPP only
Colt McCoy, $5,000 – Shocka Zooloo special! This one is hot off the press. So hot, in fact, Jay didn’t get to edit it or he might’ve taken it out. Let’s just call it a hot mess off the press, shall we? McCoy is Gruden’s boy for week 13 and at minimum QB price he makes everything around him nice. It’s obviously a gamble but then again, so is going out your front door without your keys. What, you’ve never locked yourself out? It’s sad my OCD kicks in about locking things but not about keeping keys with me at all times. GPP only
Eddie Lacy, RB: $7,300 – I’ll just say here and now that Le’Veon Bell is probably my top back if I’m paying up this week unless Arian Foster is back and at full strength. Then I want them both. Like REALLY, REALLY want. But since you don’t need me to analyze the top priced RBs because no one needs that, let’s focus on Eddie and how he’s been money of late. Though the Pats are very stout against the run, they are susceptible to the passing game for RBs. If you’re taking Lacy, you’re doing it to get in on the o/u of this game and I can’t blame you. You’re also hoping for a game line more like what he did against New Orleans in week 8. What, you want me to type it out for you? Go google it, you lazy SOB. I’ll be here when you get back. GPP or cash
CJ Anderson, RB: $6,900 – Most see the red ‘9th’ next to Anderson’s name and assume he’s a bad play. Well, KC is last in the league right now in terms of ypa against at 5. The main question is does he see the red zone but don’t fear he can’t see 100 yards on the ground like he did last week. I shall now and forever call him CJ MANderson. GPP or cash
Andre Ellington, RB: $6,200 – Yeah, season long guys aren’t getting what they wanted out of Andre. Sorry guys. Andre is what makes DFS great. All that matters is the matchup and can you afford him. Atlanta proved once again they couldn’t stop the run in week 12, giving up 156 yards and 2 TDs on 29 carries, good for a 5.6 ypc average. With how heavily targeted Andre has been out of the backfield – he’s averaging 4.4 receptions per game – he doesn’t even need to turn in a 100 yard rushing effort to cash. Take the A Train this week. GPP or cash
Fred Jackson, RB: $5,300 – The end line won’t tell you this, but FJax was the feature back for Buffalo in week 12. But when you have an older RB who is coming off a major groin injury and you’re up by 3 scores, you kinda find a reason to rest him. He still finished with 13.5 DK points despite not playing much from the end of the 3rd quarter on. Much like KC’s run defense numbers, Cleveland may not look that great on paper but their 4.5 ypc against say otherwise. Old man Jackson could be a great tourney turner. GPP only
Tre Mason, RB: $4,600 – So we’ve established a few things about Tre Mason’s game: he ain’t gonna help you when his team is losing. Alright, glad we have that covered. Now onto the next and more important note: Vegas has the Rams as a full touchdown favorite at home. I’m looking for this to be the big week for Mason after everyone forgot about Tre. GPP or cash
LeGarrette Blount, RB: $4,400 – It’s like Jonas Grey never happened. Yes, this call is contradictory to going with Brady most likely but the last time the Pats were expected to be a part of a shootout on the road in the highest o/u of the season, well…Hoodie Bill found and exploited a weakness. Don’t think another big ground day like this could occur? Well, let me just refer you to this tweet.  GPP only
Antonio Brown, WR: $9,000 – I’m not wasting many words here. Coming off a bye week and in a game with the second highest o/u on the week at 53 AND against a team that gives up the 31st most DK points all while at home…well, I’ve already wasted more time here than I should’ve. If you’re spending this high up at WR, Brown delivers. Oh and while we’re on this game, might as well throw in that Martavis Bryant is only $4,700. He’s 2 TD upside every week and will be underowned most likely. Go ahead and GPP dat. GPP or cash
Keenan Allen, WR: $6,000 – Here’s your pairing if you’re going the Rivers route. And yes, if you wanna stack in NE@GB game, there are a lot of big names at WR above Allen. Go for it. See if you can do it. You can’t? Ohhhh…yeah, I’m not saying to fade that game but realize you can’t price everyone in without cutting major corners elsewhere. Or you can target a particular guy I’m gonna list below…suspense! GPP or cash
Pierre Garcon, WR: $4,400 – If you’re going with McCoy…yeah, DJax will probably move around the formation a bit but Garcon had a good thing going with Colt. In 6 quarters, the two have paired for 8 receptions, 130 yards and a touchdown on 8 targets. Doesn’t sound like much but Garcon probably sees zero of Vontae Davis which means he shouldn’t see a zero in his stat line. GPP only
Justin Hunter, WR: $4,000 – Need a Mettenberger pairing, right? I know, I know, I’m the worst. But last week against the Eagles proved he was still part of the game plan, albeit the volume hasn’t translated to a big game yet. Despite a whopping 10 targets, Hunter just isn’t winning his one on one matchups much as he came away with just 4/64/1. That said, the Texans are giving up plenty to opposing team’s WR1s. The only question at this point is, is that what Hunter is? TBD. GPP only
Davante Adams, WR: $3,000 – You know about Cobb and Nelson. So does Bill Belichick. I don’t expect Browner and Revis to shut down this dynamic duo but I do think Bill will force Rodgers to look at his 2nd and 3rd options more often than normal. I think it’s fair to say the last time A-Rod and company was challenged – week 8 against New Orleans – was the last time Adams was relevant. This game is expected to be close throughout which should put all parts on display. If I’m looking for a cheap and easy way to get my foot in the door of this game, Davante is the route to go. GPP only
Travis Kelce, TE: $4,300 – It’s been great matchup after great matchup for the TE playfully known as Gronk jr and he’s disappointed us. Or has he? Nah, more like Andy Reid has. He just wants to run, run, and run some more. Maybe the Walrus is just living vicariously…no matter, he won’t have a choice but to throw in this game with Peyton in town. At this price, you’re looking back at his week 4 showing against New England and hoping for another showing of his Gronktacular side. GPP or cash
Charles Clay, TE: $3,400 – Important number to remember: 12. Important name to note: Scott Chandler. The number is how many touchdowns the Jets have given up to opposing TEs on the year. The name is that of the Bills TE who has only 2 TDs on the year…and one of them is against the Jets. If Charles is healthy, Clay is in play. GPP or cash
Jermaine Gresham, TE: $3,100 – It’s a stretch and one you probably don’t need to make but I think it’s good to point out that Tampa Bay in that soft zone coverage has given up the 4th most receptions to opposing TEs. If Dalton has one of those games that remind you that gingers are evil, Gresham probably gets heavily targeted. You’re really leaning on a 100 yard receiving game here as the Buccs don’t give up many TDs but hey, you’re not exactly paying for Gronk or Graham here, are you? GPP only
St Louis Rams, DST: $3,200 – Yes, I also like the Colts defense but so will many. If I’m paying $3.2, it’s between Indy and STL. This is a team that has come on strong of late and playing at home coming off a 15 point DK performance…well, they just know how to Ram It. GPP or cash
Jacksonville Jaguars, DST: $2,300 – Me going down to here should pretty much tell you what I think about the rest of the field this week. Eli seems to find a way to disappoint the next week around. Going on the road, in a game with a low o/u and what is supposed to be close, something tells me Vegas doesn’t like the chances of no Manning face this Sunday. GPP only
