Hrm…how am I gonna do this…*Goes and reads ‘How To Sell A Bad Idea For Dummies*. I got it! He’s cheap! Yikes, readers and readettes, we’re really digging down into the down and dirty at QB suggesting Jake Locker at $5,400 but there’s some reason for optimism here. One, it’s your money, not mine…JK. The big reason I’m staring down the barrel of Jake’s cannon arm is the matchup. The Jets have been a wreck in the secondary all year. So bad, they’ve allowed a top 15 or better finish to quarterbacks with names like Alex Smith, Teddy Bridgewater and Kyle Orton (twice). If you were looking for a sign that something’s not working, Orton hanging big weeks on you more than once in a season is a pretty good indicator. Now of course, none of this touts Locker as a great play. He’s a risk. A big one, in fact. There’s no sign nor indication that Locker will ever be a good NFL QB at this point but DFS DGAF, y’all! Boy can scramble. Let’s just pretend that he has ‘started’ 4 games this year since he was hurt half way through week 4 and has played back to back 4th quarters the last two weeks when Zach Mettenberger’s shoulder turned into ground beef. In those ‘4 starts’, Locker has averaged about 34 yards on the ground and has a rushing TD to his credit. The great thing about rushing TDs? They’re worth more than passing TDs…seriously, you play this game, why am I telling you? So Locker could net you 9 points with 30 yards rushing and a TD without doing much out of the norm for his style of play. Now let’s take that ‘could’ and tack on the bad passing defense to date by the Jets that has allowed a 29:5 TD to INT ratio and an average of 258 passing yards a game for the year. Now let’s not kid ourselves, this could easily blow up in our faces like we just got a present from Jokey Smurf so I wouldn’t get cute and play him in cash games. That said, if you’re a GPP’in, you’re lookin’ to cut corners on pricing wherever you can and this could be that one time you’ll remember the 2014 Titans fondly. Enjoy. But enough about Denzel Washington, let’s move on. Here’s my red hot takes for the week 14 DK slate…
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Ben Roethlisberger, QB: $7,900 – I’m all about the domes, holmes. Vegas predicts this game to stay close and are barely giving the Steelers an edge so as much as it should be a Le’Veon Bell day – and I won’t deny it should be – I will say that it could be a 3 TD passes to Bell day as Hotlanta ranks near the bottom in terms of receptions to opposing RBs (and everythings, really, but that’s not the point). BTW, that’s your Bell talk. I guess I might as well also tell you here that if I’m paying up for QB it’ll be Drew Brees. Yes, no dome but Prime Time (we covered this week 13 when he was, ya know, awesome), da Bears are da suck and I don’t think that loss will sit too well with D-Breezy. Anywho, if the week plays itself out as ‘Le’Veon or bust’ talk, Big Ben might slide under the radar a bit. Dive in. GPP or cash
Eli Manning, QB: $6,400 – There are a lot of QBs in and around this price range that I like this week (Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez and Philip Rivers are all under consideration for me) but given the mediocre numbers recently, I think Eli flies under the radar the most. If Rashad is healthy – a big if but an important one – Eli becomes a sexy option. And welcome those who googled ‘Sexy Eli Manning’. You can leave now. No, not the site, the internet in general. Seriously, you ain’t ever finding that oxymoron. That team from Washington has had their best games under Colt McCoy. That’s enough to tell you about their season. Doesn’t help that their secondary has given up the most points to opposing QBs for the year. Normally I’d say nothing is safe about Eli but he has my trust this week. What? It’s not like he’s Kaepernick…GPP or cash
Johnny Manziel, QB: $5,900 – Remember how I said last week I’m avoiding the piddle in the corner of the Dawg Pound that was this QB carousel? Yeah, I think enough has happened that Manziel is gonna get his game on this Sunday. If that’s the case, I fully predict him to ball out…or get pulled after flipping the ref off and snorting a line off a cheerleader’s cleavage. All these things and more are possible when Johnny F@#$in Football takes the field, kids. If he plays, I will probably be fading him because you don’t even have to know football to know about Johnny but I’d be remiss if I didn’t try and up the page hits tell you about this tourney play. GPP only
Derek Anderson, QB: $5,000 – As unfortunate as the Cam Newton news was, it gives us room to go min-price at QB and not feel overly bad about it. The last time Derek Anderson faced Tampa, he scored 18 DK points. The repeat of such things is very possible. Given the heat that the Manzealots will put on JFF, pivoting to the DFA (not a real nickname) could be purrrrtay smart. GPP or cash
Mike Glennon, QB: $5,000 – As Adele would say, ‘Rumour has it (Rumour)’…and then you just say it over and over cuz you don’t know the rest of the song. Which is fine, just a little awkward….wait, what were we talking about? Oh yeah, Glennon might be the starter against Carolina come Sunday. You don’t have to stretch your neck out too much to say he’s a good play all around given his numbers this year. GPP or cash
Marshawn Lynch, RB: $7,300 – Vegas says the ‘hawks are gonna deliver the deathblow to San Fran’s playoff hopes in grand fashion, putting SF as 9 point underdogs. They also don’t think the Seahawks are gonna score much and think this is gonna be a defensive struggle. In many ways, I could see it. I think SF will play up for this game as they try and play spoiler. I just don’t think they have the healthy bodies to make it happen and over the last 4 weeks, they have given up 4.4 yards per carry. Oh and Lynch? Of his 13 TDs on the season, 10 have been scored at home . This should be a grind down game and I think Seattle wants to let Lynch do the work to finish off the 49ers. If you can squeeze the Seahawks DST onto your team at $3,500 to complete the pairing, Lynch got but one thing to say to you. GPP or cash
LeSean McCoy, RB: $6,600 – Mea Culpa about last week. That game script could not have gone more perfectly for Seattle. Fun fact! I’m a University of Oregon Ducks alum so I’ve seen how a team can beat a Chip Kelly team: control the ball by converting key third downs. Well they did just that; kept the Eagles offense off the field and kept their defense fresh. Doesn’t help that Shady had a key turnover early in the 3rd…eh, why am I touting him? Oh yeah, the Cowboys. You know their defense is a mirage and you doubly know what the Eagles defense can do to this Dallas offense on Thanksgiving and that was IN Dallas. I dare say another RB/DST pairing made in heaven. It’s like I specifically planned these as part of my write ups…GPP or cash
Alfred Morris, RB: $5,000 – This suggestion has a big if. Like big. If Colt McCoy doesn’t start and RG3 does, Morris should get the rock and do plenty with it. For whatever reason, NFL defenses are still giving Griffin the respect that he’s a running QB which creates lanes for The Butler to exploit. Don’t believe me? Take a look at these stats. Stats like that don’t grow on trees. Because, of course, there are no stat trees. Duh. The Giants can be run on and you can bet if Rob is starting, that’s all Gruden will want to do. GPP or cash
Jonathan Stewart, RB: $5,000 – Maybe, just maybe, Carolina has figured out that J-Stew is indeed younger and better than the rest of their running backs and will continue feed him. But Carolina is 4-8-1 so I have a hard time believing in anything about them, really, so I’ll just say tune into the Daily Show for tourneys only and leave it at that. GPP only
Latavius Murray, RB: $4,000 – As Gil Scott-Heron once wrote, ‘the revolution will not be televised’. I would say that’s a very apt description of anything Raiders. I mean, even if someone’s good on their team, you ever gonna see it on TV? I mean, by choice. They’re pretty bad, people…but more to the point, last week the coaches said Murray wasn’t the lead back but would get some touches. He ended the game with 25 touches. Good thing is, this revolution may not be televised but you can watch it on NFL Rewind and just go to Murray plays! GPP or cash
Branden Oliver, RB: $3,000 – After being tripped – no seriously, that’s the reason – Ryan Mathews looks to have dinged up his leg from the Pats game on Sunday. If Ryan can’t go, Oliver looks to be a nice M|A|R|R|S play. Much like mud and cucumbers does amazing things for your skin, volume does amazing things for your stat lines. GPP or cash
T.Y. Hilton, WR: $8,000 – DraftKings really is leaving the pricing wide open this week. I’m seeing a lot of guys who should have 8’s and 7’s at the beginning of their prices who are in the 6’s and 5’s but we’ll get to them later. T.Y. just went HAM and now gets to go home and face a Texans defense that gives up monstrous games to opposing teams’ WR1s and guess what? Hilton is just that AND he gets to play in the comforts of the dome. In fact, the last times these two teams met, Hilton went for 9/223/1. Go back a little further and in two games combined, Hilton went for 15/199/3. With Wayne ailing, I’m checking in at the Hilton if I’m paying up at WR. There better be a mint on my pillow! GPP or cash
Mike Evans, WR: $6,600 – Kid just had a 2 TD day against the Lions in Detroit and now gets to to sweet Carolina to face their shreddable defense at this price? Like I said, the pricing this week is looser than your mom…after that trip to the massage/day spa package you gave her! You’re such a good kid! What, where’d you think I was going with that? Rather than waste worthless words on it, I’ll just say I’m also keen on Kelvin Benjamin ($6,200) and Jeremy Maclin ($6,100) in and around this price and will probably find Maclin on a lot of my teams this week overall. Seriously, this underpricing is gonna kill my brain before Sunday even gets here. GPP or cash
Eric Decker, WR: $5,100 – Just as no one expects the Spanish Inquisition, no one will expect you to play a Jet…and really, you shouldn’t. I know this and you know this but in reality, it looks like Harvin might miss week 15 and Tennessee gives up plenty to opposing receivers. And there’s your analysis: no one else can catch a pass so I guess Decker probably will. Impressive. GPP only
Donte Moncrief, WR: $4,000 – With how dinged up Wayne is, you have to wonder if Donte gets a big chance at the spotlight on Sunday again. The snap count keeps rising (50 last week) and Reggie Wayne still hasn’t found the fountain of youth so his nagging injuries will stay nagging and his sagging things will stay sagging. What, gravity affects EVERYTHING…think about it…but more to the point, Moncrief is the French wide out of choice for me this week. Sorry, Garcon. GPP only
Marquess Wilson, WR: $3,000 – With Brandon Marshall on season-ending IR, it will be Wilson taking the second fiddle role in the wide receiving group for the Bears. This is one you’ll want to hear more about as the week goes along – and to be fair, you don’t need to go this cheap to win this week based on the loose pricing – but he won’t be on many people’s radars in a game that figures to be a shoot out. He’ll be 4th in the pass-pecking order but Cutler don’t care, he’ll throw it wherever he wants and it may be to Marquess. GPP only
Jimmy Graham, TE: $6,300 – Not gonna lie…kinda hate him. Then again, he is a ginger so this is just a part of life for him. He’s clearly not 100% healthy and is dealing with shoulder issues but he’s also facing a team that’s tied for 2nd for TDs against from opposing TEs with 11 on the season. That’s bordering on one a week for them. I think we get some Graham, cracker, CRUNCH action finally on Monday and is cheap enough to pair with Drew and still roster a good lineup. Now go do something worthwhile, Carrot Top! GPP or cash
Delanie Walker, TE: $4,400 – Let’s just say that Ken Whisenhunt doesn’t know what he’s doing and leave it at that. He let his young QB who had a shoulder injury on his throwing arm take the field Sunday. Said young QB was throwing like someone who shouldn’t be playing. Because he had a shoulder injury. Same young QB finally gets crunched late in the 4th and they pull said young QB with a shoulder injury. Yes, the same shoulder. Ken, you’re a schmuck. Through all of this though, Walker had 10 targets – as errant as they were – and Walker is Locker’s binky. Another 10+ targets should be a lock against the Jets but hopefully with more conversions along the way. Oh and the Jets? yeah, they’ve given up the most TDs to opposing TEs on the year. BTW, if you start Graham, you still have a flex spot out there. Just sayin…oh and Antonio Gates at $4,500 ain’t a bad play either given Denver’s defense against TEs but I’m all about Walking the Walker. GPP or cash
Larry Donnell, TE: $3,800 – The Larry Donnell experience will more than likely be gone and forgotten by August of 2015 but until then, we keep getting to look at this cheap price and say to ourselves ‘maybe…just maybe Donnell will have one of those 2 TD games again’. Well, against a Washington team that has given up 11 TDs to opposing TEs, these things are indeed possible. So is 4/28 and a fumble but hey, you got a cheaper idea in mind? GPP or cash
Tony Moeaki, TE: $3,000 – He’s Seattle’s best receiving threat in a game that will probably be smash mouth. Or maybe I just really, really want Moeaki to be a thing. Yeah, you’re probably right. GPP only
Cleveland Browns, DST: $3,200 – I’ve already covered plenty ‘o’ defense above so let’s do very little below. The Browns are coming off a 2 TD game on defense and get Andy Dalton who can go from the Red Rocket that I say in the form of affection to the Red Rocket South Park refers to pretty quickly. Factor in AJ Green’s historic struggles against Joe Haden and you have a recipe for a Dawg Pound kinda day. GPP or cash
Indianapolis Colts, DST: $3,000 – How much do you trust Fitzgamemanager? If Vontae Davis is back and Houston is without Andre Johnson, we could see a game script that goes heavily in the Colts’ favor. Remember that one time that Ryan Fitzmagic threw 6 TDs? Yeah me too! The key word in that sentence was ‘one’. GPP only
