DraftKings: Shades Of His Former Shady-ness

When previewing matchups on DraftKings, it gets a little too easy to be lazy.  Just roster the guys with the green OPRK, avoid the guys with it in red and maybe kinda/sorta glance at the neutral white guys.  BTW, neutral white guys should be the name of the political party in Switzerland.  You’re free to use it, Swiss Mrs. out there…but more to the point, I have a little secret for you.  Come closer so I can whisper it into your ear.  No, closer…EVERYONE CAN BE RUN ON!  Sorry, felt the yelling would smack you from complacent analysis.  Not like it hurt your ears, you’ve been listening to Rise Against at top volume with your ear buds jammed into your head.  PS, don’t do that.  Both listen to them and jack the volume up.  Both are bad for you.  Now where were we…oh yeah, anyone can be run on.  When looking at Seattle’s rush defense, you have to allow for caveats.  Yes, their numbers suggest running on them isn’t a good thing.  They’ve only allowed 3.5 yards per carry on the year, a stat which is 4th best on the year.  They’ve also only allowed 1036 rushing yards, good for 5th best.  But I have two stat lines for you to debunk this mindset: 29/115/1 and 20/159/2.  The first stat line is DeMarco Murray from week 6 in Seattle and the second one is Jamaal Charles from week 11 in KC.  The rest of the lead backs Seattle has faced this year?  A litany of circumstantial meh.  Alfred Morris without RG3 under center in week 5?  Trash.  Darren McFadden at home in week 9?  C’mon, man.  Andre Williams in week 10?  Dumpster fire.  In fact, Seattle gave up 18/85/1 to Tre Mason and 16/79 to Jonathan Stewart this year too but if you asked anyone if Seattle is a stout run defense and they’ll say ‘yes’m’.  Well, maybe not ‘yes’m’ unless you talk with a lot of people from the south.  But that doesn’t tell you much about why you should start LeSean McCoy, of course so lets get Shady for a minute.  First, let’s talk price tag: $6,400.  If he’s your RB1 this week, that’s prettay, prettay nice.  Secondly, he averages 22 touches a game on the season.  That’s nice floor.  Thirdly that’s also a fourthly and possibly a fifthly, he’s scored a touchdown and/or had over 100 yards from scrimmage in 6 of his last 7 games and three of his four touchdowns this season have come in the last four games.  Don’t be throwing no shade at Shady this week, friends.  But enough about that, let’s talk about another that.  Here’s my red hot takes on the week 14 DK slate…

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Drew Brees, QB: $9,100 – If you can’t tell by my lead on a running back, I kinda want to find some savings to pay up for QB this week.  Kinda, maybe, sorta, I guess.  If I am, I’m paying up for Drew in the dome at home.  The Panthers are a mess all around this year and their defense has been a major culprit.  You can run and pass on them.  And before you ask, listen in on what the Saints plan to do when Khiry Robinson comes back if you want to pay for Ingram.  He’s priced just $100 more than shady so I ain’t mad if you go his route.  But back to Brees: he just threw 5 TDs and has scored 30+ points in back to back contests.  I think the Saints we know and <3 are back and I’ll take the easiest route to get in on the big easy resurgence.  GPP or cash

Matthew Stafford, QB: $7,900 – Go outside really quick for me.  Ok, now stand out there for about 2 hours.  Unless you live in the southern states, you’ll notice something; it’s cold outside.  Domes are your friend around this time of year since there’s nothing about the drop of the mercury in your thermometer that could affect performance.  Stafford just got done carving up the Bears on Thanksgiving (overused pun point!) to the tune of 390/2.  The Vegas o/u odds don’t look overly appealing but I think the Lions are gelling right now after that Turkey day win.  Gobble this one up…ok, ok I missed the Thanksgiving day puns chance last week.  I know, I know…GPP or cash

Ryan Tannehill, QB: $7,300 – Everyone will be on RW3 at the $7,700 mark if they’re paying attention to this price range.  But Ryan has the better matchup by the numbers and is playing at home against a defense that will most likely shut down their run game.  Fun fact!  The Ravens are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs AND WRs over the last four weeks.  Like you needed a good reason to roster Jarvis Landry at $5,600 and/or Mike Wallace at $5,200.  Yeah, I double-dipped.  Did ya see how long that intro paragraph was?  Gotta cut corners somewhere!  GPP or cash

Colin Kaepernick, QB: $6,500 – Officially hate myself for this.  Just gonna say ‘Raiders, bounce back game’ and move on.  GPP only

Johnny Manziel/Brian Hoyer, QB: $6,200/$5,200 – Well, apparently DK says Johnny Football gets the start.  Me, I’m not so certain.  And me again, I don’t even know if either guy stays in over the other if they come out of the gate struggling.  Unless some very encouraging words come out of Pettine’s mouth that either guy is the starter and will stay in the whole game, I’m actually on board with avoiding this mess.  Too bad, too.  Colts just gave up 392/3 to Colt McCoy!  GPP only…or maybe not at all

Jake Locker, QB: $5,400 – Remember when he was the future of the Titans franchise?  Fun times!  Remember the last time the Giants faced a QB who could run and gave up 107 rushing yards on 14 carries to Russell Wilson?  More fun times!  Are Giants bottom five at this point?  Are they just above Tennessee?  The battle for futility to will be won by someone, but who cares, we’re talking fantasy here!  At his price point, you’re basically punting QB so you can pay up elsewhere.  And why not do that?  For that reason, I say he’s viable in all formats.  Now just watch him get hurt in the first quarter.  GPP or cash

Jamaal Charles, RB: $8,500 – You’re paying up to be contrarian here.  They’re going to Arizona to face one of, if not the top rushing defense in the league.  But c’mon, it’s Jamaal and after last week’s primetime drubbing, I think Andy Reid knows which Charles is in charge of his offense.  GPP only

Eddie Lacy, RB: $7,800 – I have a confession to make: I am not an Eddie Lacy fan.  If we’re being real, he’s Trent Richardson with a better o-line, QB, and just has more confidence at this point.  Ain’t nothin special about fat Eddie in my book.  Now let the hating commence…alright, we done?  Good, let’s move on.  I have another confession we can all agree with: the Falcons have a terrible defense.  The GB game has the highest over/under of the week at a whopping 56 and Vegas has the Pack as 11 point favorites.  To put the math of that to work, Vegas thinks Green Bay is gonna score at least four touchdowns and has a chance for five.  Eddie will probably be my biggest exposure to this game minus Randall Cobb at $7,400.  Then again, heck, I might find a way to stack the whole team with some of the bargains we’re gonna talk about lower (I love spoilers!).  GPP or cash

Isaiah Crowell, RB: $5,000 – Yeah, he’ll probably be the cover boy of every DraftKings article you read this week and for good reason.  The matchup is perfect, they’re at home and likely in bad weather meaning they’ll want to stay on the ground and to top it all off, head coach Pettine was pretty mad about that Terrance West fumble.  I faded Alfred Blue at min salary when he started because everyone was gonna be on him and he produced.  I made up for it by starting Tre Mason last week everywhere knowing the same would be the case.  I think it’s clear which way I lean when it comes to these kinds of things now.  GPP or cash

Ryan Mathews, RB: $4,700 – Seriously, can we get this man another ‘t’, please?  Misspelling common names isn’t a way to be unique, people.  Just means you can’t spell.  Just sayin…but enough about my pet peeves, this one is a bit worrisome of a call.  It’s hard to imagine Mathews seeing 20+ touches but he could see 15-18 and Vegas has this game as the second highest o/u at 51 and they don’t see New England running away with it.  If I’m game planning as a Chargers HC, I’d want to slow Brady down by running the ball.  Like, a lot.  But I’m not a HC of anything so it’s out of my control.  That said, there’s merit to this idea.  Unless the Chargers fall behind early, Ryan could be that sneaky GPP play that everyone keeps talking about but which actually doesn’t exist.  GPP or cash

Andre Williams, RB: $4,400 – If Rashad’s healing abilities from earlier in the season are any indication, we probably don’t see him this week.  Which is too bad for his season long owners (yeah, I’m self-referencing here…yay me) but great for guys who want in on a cheap tourney play.  Just consider this a call for Bishop Sankey at 4K while we’re at it.  I feel dirty enough discussing Andre as it is.  GPP only

Latavius Murray, RB: $3,800 – The coming out party was now two weeks ago but the price is still here.  If he’s a full go, I’ll definitely have a few shares in tourneys.  Ah hell, if he’s declared the starter outright, he’s just in every lineup.  GPP or cash

Jeremy Maclin, WR: $6,800 – Maclin will most likely face Maxwell and not Richard Sherman for most of the game.  That honor goes to Riley Cooper (RIP).  I didn’t mention Mark Sanchez above because I’m mentioning Maclin here.  Like I said, Seattle’s defense is very good but the 2014 version has its cracks in the armor.  Maclin at this price should be a steal.  Consider this a shout out to Jordan Matthews at $5,700 while we’re at it.  GPP only

Kenny Stills, WR: $6,000 – He’s priced about right.  Then you realize he’s probably seeing plenty of Cason and you realize he should probably be in the 7K range.  Then you realize he’s not and laugh like an evil cartoon villian.  Then your wife wonders if she should disconnect your internet for a while.  GPP or cash

Charles Johnson, WR: $4,300 – I already mentioned plenty of guys in the 5’s so now I’m here.  Don’t like it?  Well pretend some 8-bit shades are slowly lowering over my eyes in my avatar and read this sentence: Deal With It.  Charles did nothing last week at 4K and then got a $300 price bump.  Ok, DraftKings…either way, doesn’t matter, he’s still cheap.  The Jets are a team you beat through the air.  If Teddy can get it to Charles, fireworks could be going off.  That ‘if’ just lowered it’s eyes and scrambled out of bounds for 3 yards, BTW.  GPP only

Cecil Shorts III, WR: $3,900 – I’ve looked and looked but I don’t see any Davante Adams calls this week.  You’re gonna have to make this your one sub-4K play and like it.  Or don’t like it, which I would understand.  The reality is the Texans have given up the most TD receptions, the second most receptions, and the third most yards to opposing WRs on the year so there’s merit to starting a Jaguar.  Or at the very least, a logical argument you can tell your friend after Cecil scores you bupkis.  But if he goes and scores you about 18…well, salute your Shorts…the third.  Yeah that just doesn’t work.  GPP only

Jimmy Graham, TE: $6,500 – As I stated on Twitter on Monday…I doubt this happens again.  I might be a little too high on this game overall but I expect New Orleans to route Carolina so points ‘o’ plenty are what I see coming and a 2 TD Graham game would be in line with that thought process.  Is Gronk Gronktacular?  Gronkcourse!  But Gronk is priced like a WR1 so he’s not as easy to swing this week.  If you can, feel free to but for me, I’m all about that Graham…cracker…CRUNCH!  GPP or cash

Delanie Walker, TE: $4,200 – What were you expecting me to say, Travis Kelce?  The next time I see the Walrus Andy Reid, he’s gonna get the vine treatment…but yeah, so Walker.  The matchup is neutral but leans towards friendly and Jake Locker targeted him 26 times in the first three games of the year or better put, nearly 9 times a game as a starter.  If you’re not paying for a big name, you can pay for Delanie…which is kind of a big name.  I mean, it’s three syllables long!  GPP or cash

Jermaine Gresham, TE: $3,200 – The Steelers have given up 9 TDs to opposing TEs at this point and at this price, about 3 catches and an end zone splash is probably all you’re wanting or needing to feel comfortable starting him here.  If you are looking for a scrub TE or flex play, well, here’s your scrub.  GPP or cash

Jordan Cameron, TE: $3,000 – Could the apple of Jennifer’s stalker eye be on the mend?  He practiced last week and gets to face a Colts defense that’s given up the same amount of TDs to opposing TEs as Pittsburgh.  It’s a gamble but we all know J-Cam has more talent and – if Jennifer is correct – a hotter ass than most TEs out there.  That last part may or may not have daily fantasy relevance.  Gonna have to check the scoring on that.  GPP or cash

Miami Dolphins, DST: $3,300 – Gonna be up front, the defensive pricing this week is stupid hella dumb.  $3,700 for the Texans?  On the road?  Shut the front door with that mess.  Miami should matchup well with the Ravens but most likely I won’t be using them because I have far more cheaper and interesting options below…GPP or cash

New Orleans Saints, DST: $3,000 – The last time these two teams met, the Saints had 4 sacks and an interception on their way to a 12 point fantasy day.  Sometimes it doesn’t matter if you’re a good defense or not, you just gotta take advantage of the matchup you’ve got.  GPP only

Kansas City Chiefs, DST: $2,900 – So on the one hand, the Chiefs did give up 29 points last week.  On the other, their offense was on permanent pause and they stopped Peyton and company short of scoring a touchdown five times, holding them to just field goals and guess what?  Drew Stanton is decidedly not Peyton Manning.  Drew has a 6:5 TD to INT ratio on the year and has thrown a pick in all but one start since week 10.  Oh and more about Stanton: his completion percentage on the year is lower than Geno Smith and Brian Hoyer.  If that doesn’t give you the cold shivers, I don’t know what will.  Yes, KC can be run on but their main threat Andre Ellington has been ineffective all year and I have my doubts the Chiefs don’t stack the box to prevent the ground game from rolling given Stanton’s woes.  Now THIS is how you pay for a decent defense on the road, kids.  GPP only

Denver Broncos, DST: $2,700 – Will probably be my go to defense for this week.  Buffalo has a great defense but they’ve turned into a shell offense where they aren’t challenging opposing defenses down field.  I think this game gets ugly quick and it’s the main reason I didn’t suggest Orton despite an expectation of junk time scoring.  We might have an EJ siting.  Yes, I think it’ll get that bad.  GPP or cash

Tennessee Titans, DST: $2,300 – Like I mentioned in the Andre Williams blurb, both of these teams are bad.  It will be a game of attrition; whoever sucks just a little bit less, that shall be the victor.  Vegas says this game plays flat and it’s hard to argue except I think we see a good pass rush on Manning.  If you’re playing Tennessee as your defense, you’re hoping for 5 sacks with maybe a strip fumble in there and the Manning going full Eli the rest of the game.  Oh and if Rashad Jennings is playing?  Forget everything I said and don’t you dare touch this D.  No, you can touch that one…how YOU doin?  GPP only