It’s finally here, we are less than a week away from my Packers kicking off 2019. I’m convinced that I enjoy the ritual of football Sunday’s more than the games themselves. Waking up to place your bets, set your lineups, and trash talk your league mates is its own event in itself. I’ll be kicking off week 1 with some homemade jalapeño poppers, chicken wings, maybe a cheese board to keep in line with my Wisconsin fandom, and of course plenty of beer. Although some of us have the same game day rituals from year to year, we can’t expect similar results from team to team or player to player from 2018 to 2019. In a league that is built on parity, identifying when a player’s situation has changed drastically can make us better fantasy gamers. Let’s take a look at some of these situations that should make us pause and take a closer look.

Let me be clear. I hate coach-centric fantasy analysis. I never buy into an analysts telling me I need to pay attention to a certain running back just because they are in a Kyle Shanahan offense *cough* Tevin Coleman *cough*. However, ignoring it entirely is not making us better fantasy gamers either. I believe that coaching changes have big picture impacts on how a particular offense operates. While it shouldn’t affect an individual’s performance too drastically it can definitely have the biggest impact on the outcome of games. One of these changes that seems to have slipped under the radar from last year is the Viking’s OC change to Kevin Stefanski. The Vikings ran the ball at an alarming rate in their final 3 games.  The offense is trending down, Dalvin cook is injury prone and if they are going to have him carry a heavier load he is a huge injury risk for 2019. Topping that off, both Thielen and Diggs will see their dynasty value suffer if Minnesota continues the trend. Most teams are wise to the fact that this is a passing league. Passing on 1st down and getting the RB involved in the passing game is not only great for fantasy, it also makes the offense more efficient. The defense doesn’t know when to expect the run. If the final 3 games are any indication of what to expect in Minnesota, I’m tempering my expectations for this team. 

The unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck is a major change where fantasy gamers can find an edge. As a Hilton dynasty owner I am sad to see Luck go, especially since we were about to see a healthy Luck perform behind an excellent offensive line. If Luck stays retired (there are already whisperings of him returning once he is “healthy”) I’ll continue to wonder what kind of season we were about to see from him. In steps Jacoby Brissett who we got to see at age 23. He took over for the injured Luck and had an abysmal year. Spoiler Alert: Brissett was tasked with playing behind that same offensive line that allowed Luck to get battered game after game. He also had the worst cast of Wide Receivers in the NFL that year. Not to mention, Brissett hadn’t taken any reps with the first team before taking over the role. Be bullish on the ADP dip of players like Hilton and Mack. Not only is Brisset 3 years older, he gets to throw to Ebron, Doyle, Mack, and Funchess. These are all drastic improvements over 2017. He got his reps  with the starters this pre-season while Luck was sidelined. We are seeing an overreaction in the fantasy community. From a Dynasty standpoint, we are either stuck holding the bag or attempting to buy low on the main fixtures. It will be difficult to move any Colts players at value right now.

The changes in Cleveland are exciting for NFL fans in general. I’ve had Cleveland’s week 1 game marked off on my calendar for quite some time and it is the game I am most eager to see. Is there a better post-hype sleeper this year than David Njoku? Here’s what I wrote about him last year. “Njoku is in a position to emerge as an elite option in a top heavy position. 386 yards on 58 targets and 4 TD’s and trending up, grab him while you can. At 22 he is a great dynasty option and is available in the double digit rounds of re-draft leagues.” This may be truer than ever as people give up on him. Njoku is entering his third year in the league which is the magic year for Tight Ends to fully break out. With the offense able to spread the ball around it should open Njoku up over the middle and in the red zone. He’s been working on both his blocking and pass catching skills. He is fully dedicated to working on his craft which is the kind of player you want to own in dynasty leagues.

  1. Gary Z says:
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    SD- Would you drop James Washington for Devin Singletary since McCoy got released?

    RB’s : Kamara , Fournette, J.White, Breida, Darwin Thompson, Justice Hill
    WR’s: Julio, Kupp, Mike Williams, Samuel, Washington

    Thanks!

    -g GO PACK GO!!!

    • The Scrant Dog

      The Scrant Dog says:
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      Sorry for the late reply! I was 15 miles out at sea with no service all day. 100% drop washington for singletary in dynasty

      • The Scrant Dog

        The Scrant Dog says:
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        Oh and GO PACK GO

        • Beware the Shit Rope says:
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          i’d have dropped samuel for singletary during the draft before any mccoy real life dropping. the dynasty guys round here (with rankings) bdon/DT have singletary 17th overall or so for this year rookies. supposedly his draft grades were low from being “slow, with bad hands” but i just watched a 3 min video from somebody (probably football guys’ stuff) a few days ago showing preseason footage of him seeing the field very well and having good hands on hard catches.

          • Beware the Shit Rope says:
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            sorry, i misread the samuel there, NOT the PIT samuel i thought it was. yeah i’d drop yr worst WR here though.

  2. Beware the Shit Rope says:
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    tomorrow have a 12 team super flex keep 4 league opening year draft. start 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 regular flexes, 1 super flex, 1 DEF, no kicker, 8 BN. 3 IR, no position maxes (except max 3 DEF’s). so i’m going about ranking the 228 players here. some specific stuff:

    1. how much should i move up QB’s in a super flex (some QB’s probably more than others, but still a general amount is probably discernible)

    2. where does melgor/green go here, they could still easily be a keeper if 48 players are kept every year.

    • The Scrant Dog

      The Scrant Dog says:
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      Hey, in superflex you want to be sure you draft a stud qb. Bump them up 2ish rounds or so.

      Personally im really low on Green and wouldnt draft him. If hes there in the 5th, maybe.
      Gordon id still take in the 3rd especially in keeper.

      • Beware the Shit Rope says:
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        bump all QB’s up 2ish rounds or just like a top 6 type? i intend to end up with 3 QB starters here due to byes and/or injury possibles. worst case scenario 2 starters and one of haskins/d.jones who should start later (rosen is even more likely to start earlier too me thinks). mahomes for instance can’t really be bumped up 2 rounds maybe. the others could be. probably like a sliding scale, so watson about 2 rounds whoever i got 3rd just around 2 rounds, slightly less bump after whoever i have at QB 6 then just gage it as the draft goes.

        • The Scrant Dog

          The Scrant Dog says:
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          For the elite qb’s dont bump. Just try to anticipate the runs on qb at the top. Mid teirs id bump 2. Late tiers for your 3rd id just grab some scraps with best available.

          • Beware the Shit Rope says:
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            makes sense, don’t move the already really high ranked types (mahomes moving up 2 rounds would make him 1st overall, that doesn’t make sense, possibly 9th overall (which i’ve seen in regular 1 QB leagues if/when there are 6 pt TD throws anyway, even up to maybe 5th), but yeah to get the middle level 2 rounds. rudy’s bot loves goff (3rd overall QB to him, 8th-9th by many rankings though) so i’ll almost certainly get him for QB 1, then somebody in here: winston/l-jax/murray/rivers/cousins/dak then one last bottom end starter or guy who’ll start at some point likely (rosen/haskins/d.jones).

            • Beware the Shit Rope says:
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              here we go, the super flex 12 team PPR keep 4 draft. 20 QB’s in the first 10 rounds (one guy was on auto and got dalton as his QB 1 much later, and that guy has almost certainly the best top 3 WR’s and ertz too). drafted out of the 6 hole and first and probably only time i’ll have kelce anywhere, and since it’s a keep 4 this is actually really good. no RB till 3rd round (which i pretty much never do). no accident i have tons of guys rudy is much higher on (a.wilson, adams, dede, j.brown, c.davis)

              QB wentz (6th QB off board, 4th round), trubisky (18th off board, 10th round), mariota (just missed foles, 26th off board, 14th)

              RB (2) AAron jones (3rd), mack (5th), lindsay (6th), ballage (11th), ogunbowale (15), armstead (16)

              WR (3): adams (1), dede (7), c.davis (8, i PROBABLY should’ve gone fuller here and could’ve gotten c.davis in the 9th), fuller (9), a.wilson (12), j.brown (13), p.williams (sort of handcuff to a.wilson, if he gets hurt again this guy’s stock’ll rise a lot, could’ve went other BUF guys or enunwa for a long time, or funchess a few rounds ago 19th)

              TE: kelce (2), hockenson (didn’t even want a 2nd TE here, BUT hock in the 17th is insane in case he blows up, plus 2 flexes)

              2 regular flexes

              1 super flex

              DEF: BAL (18)

              got some bye week issues on WRs (first 4 drafted all have weeks 10/11 byes). only thing maybe i can see wrong is i could’ve gone RB #5 earlier and could’ve had maybe one of dion, gio, gore, samuels, CJA, hyde, ty mont along with ogunbowale but not armstead.

            • The Scrant Dog

              The Scrant Dog says:
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              Goff is an absolute studd from a value standpoint. People are way too low on him. High octane offense that is going to put up yardage. Him going so late makes no sense

              • Beware the Shit Rope says:
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                i could’ve gone goff where i went wentz. i only rarely go away from rudy’s bot (goff 3rd QB), where i DO do it is DEF and kickers (no kickers in this league). he didn’t do at all well in DEF/kickers with the bot yet. i have 2 more money league 12 teamers (regular, 1 QB) today still i’ll have wentz or goff in all of them. PROBABLY goff in more since i can just wait longer.

                – the guy who showed up 45 minutes late thinking draft started an hour later got dalton/foles/haskins and is clearly trying to trade out of that. this won’t help me though as i’m not willing to go with worse than trubisky at QB 2 and he doesn’t think mariota is upgrade on foles or dalton, since he drafted them earlier. unless he wants mariota over haskins, but doubt he gives back much value there.

                i will say it’s nice (rare for me) to NOT have to worry about when/who i can get/how long can i wait for TE’s to draft. kelce at 17th and it’s easy after that. just QB balance and nab RB/WR top ranked board guys almost the entire time and make sure to balance them as i go. if ballage and/or ogunbowale (and if/when fournette gets hurt again) do well compared to their site rankings i’ll have killed RB value without really spending hardly anything.

                • Beware the Shit Rope says:
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                  yeah goff is to QB value this year as dede is to WR. and probably a lesser overall value (since they’re still pretty highly drafted) as carson/a.jones at RB.

  3. Beware the Shit Rope says:
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    post draft and post 1st day of WW’ers (daily FAAB waivers all year, but 3 moves max per week)
    2 QB half PPR 12 team dynasty.
    QB: mahomes, rodgers, rosen, haskins
    RB (2): kamara, ingram, michel, d.harris, ekeler
    WR (3): thielen, k.allen, boyd, edelman, j.gordon, crowder, watkins
    TE (1): ertz,
    2 R/W/T flexes
    kicker: DAL kicker
    DEF: DAL (gets vs NYG week 1, yeah that’s good)
    IDP (4 flexes): b.martinez, j.adams, d.jones (ATL), mosley

    i had planned on going backup TE here (dropping crowder), but there are tons of similar options unless i want to handcuff ertz (goeddert): goeddert, fant, herndon, the 3 possibly valuable NE guys (or guys who’ll PROBABLY be on NE shortly): allen/lacosse/watson, the 2 SEA guys, gesicki, doyle, fant, eifert, waller, james, witten etc (tons of them even in deep benches 12 teamer).

    but maybe i’d be better off dropping crowder for a 6th RB here: c.thompson, mal brown, gio, hyde (might he be the starter at HOU town now?), gore, gus the bus (who i just dropped), edmonds, one of the GB williamses?

    crowder at WR 7# i probably need less than depth at RB or TE

    • The Scrant Dog

      The Scrant Dog says:
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      Might need that TE for some depth. But you can drop crowder for sure. I like dexter williams in gb if you are going to pick one of them

      • Beware the Shit Rope says:
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        nobody will jump on that guy (supposedly had a shitty camp and site projections for him (fantasy site not here) are like zero). last night i grabbed hyde (might be HOU starter now).

        • The Scrant Dog

          The Scrant Dog says:
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          The texans backfield just became a shitshow. I still think its 70-30 duke/hyde. But i was ready for the duke johnson show

          • Beware the Shit Rope says:
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            probably right, but 30% of a good offense is still probably the best idea for RB #6 here, and IF say duke got hurt it’d be far more. duke’ll still be easily worth where he’s going in drafts. esp PPR. interesting that HOU just dumped their RB’s 2 and 3 before adding hyde (ferg and crockett).

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