Last week, Bobby Lamarco (@BobbyLamarco) and I started a deep dive into QB Home vs Away splits this season. Long story short, there were some very interesting findings – some we expected and some we did not. You can read the full article HERE.
With another data point (i.e., Week 16) in the books and the Fantasy Championship week upon us for most leagues, we wanted to share important findings that may help your critical decision-making. There are a few QBs out there who are scoring differently between the Home and the Road, so let’s ensure we are prepared.
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Here are the most current Home vs Away stats through Week 16 for fantasy-relevant QBs. NOTE: these reflect only passing stats: (1 per 25 PassYds, 6 per TD, -2 per INT):
Exploit
As we learned last week, Dak Prescott and C.J. Stroud pace the field in Home v Away splits. Luck for all of us. Both are playing to their strengths this week (at HOME).
- C.J. Stroud and the Texans host the Titans, whose DEF ranks 11th vs QBs and 28th vs WRs. Stroud returns to the huddle but will be missing one of his favorite targets (Tank Dell). Noah Brown remains “Q” but expects to play through is knee pain once again. Stroud lines up to be a strong play this week.
- Dak and the Cowboys host the Lions as both jockey for playoff seedings. The Lions bring one of the best rush defenses to Jerry World, but their ability to stop the pass tends to be somewhat lacking (29th vs. QBs and 26th vs. WRs). After struggling on the road most of the season, Dak looked more himself in MIA last week. That should transition into momentum for his return to Big D. This one should be a fun one for all fantasy owners to watch.
Other QB matchups to exploit:
- Although somewhat under the radar, Josh Allen’s Home vs Away splits are noticeably tilted. Lucky for us, he’ll be at home vs NE (6th vs QBs and 19th vs WRs). The forecast is calling for some light rain or even snow but mild winds (balmy December afternoon in Buffalo). Honestly, the most concerning thing here is the apparent severed connection with Stefon Diggs. If that can get mended, look out!
- In the same game, albeit a different level of QB, Bailey Zappe has shown a tendency to be much stronger on the road than at home. These late-season division rivalries tend to produce some strange results, so there may be some meat on the bone here. Buffalo counters with a top 10 DEF vs QBs, so don’t get too cute. For those of you in the DFS world, you may want to consider a lineup with Zappe manning the helm.
Neutral
Look toward the middle of the table for “neutral” matchups.
- Lamar Jackson heads this list with very little difference between Home vs Away production. Don’t get shocked at the numbers themselves. Remember, these are passing statistics only. The good thing is that he’s consistent and is going to be a “must-start” vs. MIA regardless.
- Similarly, Justin Fields’ passing numbers remain consistent, no matter the venue. The Bears host the Falcons (18th vs. QBs and 3rd vs. WRs) and some weather concerns, light snow, and some winds (10 mph sustained with gusts up to 20 mph). Although the splits suggest “neutral,” I’d lean toward “fade” if it were me.
Fade
Speaking of fades, here are two QBs that I’m fading for sure:
- First, let’s give Baker Mayfield his due for the resurgent season in Tampa. This should lead to a follow-on contract for next season. I’m happy for him. That said, I’m not starting him in my fantasy championship this week. The Saints are top 10 vs. the QB, RB, and WR. Mike Evans and Rachaad White earned “must start” status, but Baker’s not there yet. Fade!
- Tua Tagovailoa is a tough one because of all the weapons at his disposal. Sure, the Home vs Away stats suggest he’s a slight fade in Baltimore this week, anyway. But the most prominent trend I see with him is strength of schedule. Tua continues his late-season run through the NFL’s top 10 DEF this week (Ravens are 4th vs QB). The recent results suggest fantasy owners are looking at 14 – 17 FPts. This won’t get it done for a title. Fade!
Best of luck to all of you fighting for a title this week. I’m going after 3 of my own, so we’re in this together. Let me know how it turns out for you.
Programming note: Our normal Sunday Start/Sit show will air this week on Sunday at Noon EDT (9:00 PDT). Right up to game time, @BobbyLamarco, @SkyGuasco, @Stiles08, and I will be answering all your fantasy football questions. Don’t miss it.
Look for my articles right here each week, and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret. I’m now on BlueSky as well (@dfavret.bsky.social).
Until next time, my friends.
