Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings – The Free Agents

Sky’s Free Agent Running Back Predictions + Rankings

 

This is my third round of RB rankings, but this time I incorporate my predictions for the upcoming free agents set to land (or not) with another team within the next few weeks.. Bookmark this page to keep tabs on my rankings. These rankings are for RB only and based on PPR settings. Some players are not yet included in my Top 24 that will most likely land there due to their uncertainty of free agency, player options, returning from injury, etc. Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, J.K. Dobbins and Nick Chubb are among those. 

Which RBs am I too high on? Comment below and we’ll discuss in the chat.

Remember to check in with the @RazzballNFL team of writers as we host our Tuesday evening show, where we hit on all things offseason fantasy football.  Join Bobby LaMarco @BobbyLaMarco, Matt Stiles @stiles08, The Lineup Builder @Derek_Favret, and me, Sky Guasco @SkyGuasco at 9 pm EST/6 pm PST for the show as we answer all your questions thus keeping you engaged for the 2024 season while looking back at what coulda, shoulda, woulda been in 2023.  Come for the analysis, and stay for the laughs!

Top 5 Wishful Landing Spots for RB Free Agents

 

• Player: Derrick Henry
• Predicted Team: Baltimore Ravens
• My Ranking (should this happen): RB10 (ECR RB23)

This would be my absolute favorite landing spot of anyone in this free agent class. If not in Baltimore, I would love to see Henry land in Dallas or Philadelphia. I do think he ends up with the Ravens however. King Henry has already made his case for both the NFL Hall of Fame and the Fantasy Football Hall of Fame, but a year or two in the best rushing offense in the NFL could make him a legend.

The Ravens were 1st in rushing attempts per game (31.5), rushing yards per game (156.4), yards per rush attempt (5.0) and rushing play percentage (49.92%). That was with Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Keaton Mitchell and Melvin Gordon. Yes, Lamar Jackson accounts for most of that, but Edwards was tied for third in the NFL with 13 rushing touchdowns. Henry had 12 on the 18th most effective rushing offense in Tennessee. There’s a chance he scores 20 allowing Lamar to rip his 6+ as well. Also, picture Henry in the all black unis with the black tinted visor. C’mon man!

 

• Player: Saquon Barkley
• Predicted Team: Houston Texans
• My Ranking (should this happen): RB5 (ECR RB9)

This would be my second favorite landing spot and in this now high-powered offense, Barkley could return to Top 5 fantasy RB form. Everything about Saquon moving from the Giants to the Texans makes sense. HOU was 12th yards per play. NYG was 30th. HOU earned more than 50 yards per game more than NYG. HOU’s offensive line ranked 18th per Pro Football Network. NYG ranked 31st.

The Giants edged out the Texans in most rushing categories due to Saquon, but scheme wise, it’s a great fit with OC Bobby Slowik’s offense that was trained under Kyle Shanahan. The Texans are one of the few teams that could absorb Barkley’s price as they have $67M in cap space thanks to CJ Stroud, Nico Collins, Tank Dell and others still playing on rookie contracts. Apologies to my colleague and die-hard Giants fan @BobbyLamarco but Saquon deserves better than what the Giants can offer.

 

• Player: Austin Ekeler
• Predicted Team: Minnesota Vikings
• My Ranking (should this happen): RB15 (ECR RB28)

I originally had Ekeler either staying with the Chargers, or moving on to the Eagles, Raiders or Titans. However, after the recent release of Alexander Mattison, Ekeler to the Vikings makes too much sense. They have a money problem in Minnesota needing to lock up Kirk Cousins, extend Justin Jefferson and tighten up their defense, but having a dual-threat back like Dalvin Cook used to be in this offense is a must.

Ekeler isn’t what he was, but he’s still a great pass catcher and has a nose for the goaline. Mattison was dreadful in the redzone and especially inside the five yard line. He had 23 carries inside the 20, but didn’t score. He did have three receiving touchdowns in the redzone. Ekeler had 27 carries and scored five times. Inside the five though Ekeler was very efficient with all five of his redzone touchdowns coming on just 15 carries. Mattison however, not so much. He had nine carries resulting in -7 (yes, NEGATIVE) yards and no scores. Two of his three receiving touchdowns came inside the five. Ty Chandler and Cam Akers would be fine change-of-pace backs, but neither possesses the upside that Ekeler does now healthy after a high ankle sprain slowed his role last season.

 

• Player: Josh Jacobs
• Predicted Team: Dallas Cowboys
• My Ranking (should this happen): RB11 (ECR RB15)

If you’ve followed my content for a while you know that I’m Team Captain of the Jacobs Hater Club. I root for the guy as a person, but fade him annually in fantasy football. I’ve gone into depth on my reasoning for that in the past. Check it out here as part of my Top 5 RB Busts article. That said, if he were to actually land in Big D, I might switch my tone overnight. The Cowboys have an elite offense which gave Tony Pollard plenty of opportunity to succeed. He just simply did not; mainly in the redzone. Pollard had the 5th most carries inside the five with 16. He scored twice (12.5%). Jacobs only saw 10 such carries, but scored five times (50%).

The Raiders had the 12th best offensive line last season. The Cowboys had the 6th best. I don’t love Jacobs inefficiencies between the 20s, but he’s still just 26 and can catch passes. One thing I’ve always given Jacobs credit for is his ability to find the endzone. DAL was 1st in the NFL with 30.1 points per game. LV was 23rd with 19.5. Rico Dowdle would work in as a complementary back which he succeeded in last season, but I’d imagine Jacobs would take the “Zeke role” from yesteryear and thrive. Jerry Jones loves a good slash and the Raiders and Cowboys have a long history of swapping players back and forth. 

 

• Player: D’Andre Swift
• Predicted Team: Las Angeles Chargers
• My Ranking (should this happen): RB22 (ECR RB30)

I like Swift a lot and believe he can be better than what his numbers have shown so far in his career. Maybe that happens with a(nother) fresh start in LAC with Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman who I can almost guarantee will lead the NFL in rushing attempts in 2024. Swift was quite good last year in PHI, but got sniped at the goal line SIX times. He had six carries where he was tackled at the 1-yard line. All six of those resulted in a Jalen Hurts rushing touchdown by wave of the “Brotherly Shove/Tush Push”. Swift still had six touchdowns of his own, but obviously 12 would have sky-rocketed him in the perception of fantasy managers and NFL circles. He had a career-high in rushing yards with 1,049 and has had at least 40 receptions in each of his four seasons.

The Chargers won’t use Swift like the old regime used Ekeler, but Swift has a similar skillset. There’s NFL Draft murmurs that Harbaugh would draft his fellow Michigan Wolverine Blake Corum, but I’m not sure Corum should be a three-down back in the NFL just yet. Swift + Corum would be lethal in Roman’s run-heavy scheme however. In their years together in San Francisco, Harbaugh and Roman had Top 3 rushing offenses each season. Roman continued that in Baltimore. Expect more of the same in Los (San Diego) Angeles. 

 

Here are my free agent running back landing spot predictions for the Top 15 (per my rankings seen below). 

 

Player	Landing Spot
Derrick Henry	BAL
Saquon Barkley	HOU
Josh Jacobs	DAL
Austin Ekeler	MIN
Tony Pollard	LV
D’Andre Swift	LAC
Zack Moss	NYG
J.K. Dobbins	PHI
Gus Edwards	N/A
Ezekiel Elliott	WAS
D’Onta Foreman	N/A
Devin Singletary	HOU
Antonio Gibson	NYG
Kareem Hunt	N/A
A.J. Dillon	TEN

 

For more from Sky and his Razzball content, find him on Twitter @skyguasco.