Last year was our first foray into Fantasy Football season-long and DFS tools and I am hard at work finalizing the improvements for 2017 (stay tuned for an announcements in the next week or two – fyi, there will be a discount for current MLB subscribers).  As part of these improvements, we will be projecting Rest of Season projections throughout the NFL season. Unlike MLB, these will be based on the exact matchups – e.g., the system runs all the games on a team’s schedule and then sums up the stats.

One byproduct of this work will be incorporating future week projections into the tools – you can get a sneak peak on this work via the work-in-progress Team Pages.

An immediate byproduct, though, is these will now be our official preseason projections (and are free!). You can find our 2017 Fantasy Football Projections here. These will be a complement to Jay’s world-class player rankings. There will inevitably be differences between his rankings and these projections. If you see anything major, let Jay and I know in the comments.

Here are a few notes regarding the projections:

  • Projections will be both for offensive and defensive players.
  • It will be updated a couple times a week throughout the preseason (last field in table is an ‘updated’ field)
  • For QB, most starters are projected at ~99% of team snaps starting at Week 3 with the backup getting ~1% snaps. There are only a couple cases (usually shitty veteran + high-round rookie) where the splits are more dramatic.
  • For RB, starting RB snaps/carries are discounted ~7% beginning with Week 3 to account for the likelihood of injuries. RBs over 30 are discounted ~15%.
  • For WR, backup WR get a few more snaps starting Week 3 to account for starter injuries.

Thanks and leave comments if you have any questions about the projections (Just note, I am so focused on projections that I am absolutely worthless for anything remotely tangential like, say, drafting).

  1. The Harrow says:

    nice, and so early, now the long job of transferring it to a value based drafting software and BOOM! killing drafts.

    • @The Harrow: the projections export easily. the draft tool you have doesn’t allow for a bulk import?

      • The Harrow says:

        @Rudy Gamble: maybe, but it’s entirely possible i just have no idea how to do that. i will look soon though. i’ve used yours for years now in same manner, but yeah that would save some hours here.

  2. Dom says:

    Hey, so now that Elliot has been suspended 6 weeks, what round would you take him in? Is he still worth a first rounder?

    • Dom says:

      @Dom: it’s a 16 man league btw

        • Tony says:

          @Rudy Gamble: You’re talking 40-60 OVR? That’s really surprising to me. He’s still valuable in playoffs, just draft RB depth. I’d take him second in leagues that deep

  3. Dom says:

    With this roster below, was a Randall Cobb trade for Marcus Mariota, a good trade? I could have gotten Cam Newton. Who is a better pick for this year?

    16 man league standard scoring

    QB Joe Flacco
    RB Mark Ingram
    RB Frank Gore
    WR Jordy Nelson
    WR Dez Bryant
    TE Austin Hooper
    Flex Eddie Lacy


    RB Doug Martin
    RB Alfred Morris
    RB Jacquizz Rodgers
    WR Martavis Bryant
    WR Randall Cobb
    WR Brandon Marshall

    K Adam Vinateri

    Def Bengals

  4. PinkDoves says:

    Hey Jay…we got me a championship last year and Zeke carried the load for me. I’m not sure what to do with him in my keeper.

    He’d cost me a 1st round pick (10). My other keeper is Melvin Gordon in the 6th.

    My other options are Paul Perkins in the 11th, Matt Ryan in the 15th or Tommy B in the 7th.

    Wth do I do?!?!? I have a 1 day exemption to switch keepers because of the late suspension/injury.

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