Finding the next Brock Bowers: Tight End Hit Rates

Last year, Brock Bowers broke the mold, revolutionising the way rookie tight ends are used and stimulating a rush for early tight end picks in the 2025 NFL Draft. Between 2007 and 2023, only three tight ends have been selected in the first 16 picks but this year, both Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren were gone by Pick 14. So what does this mean for fantasy football? Can we trust these rookies to follow the Brock Bowers trend or do we have more busts on our hands?

I broke down over 20 years of fantasy data to assess the fantasy success of tight ends based on their draft spot. I categorized them based on their career fantasy production both in the short- and long-term. I’ll judge players based on their peak success and their longevity to create an overall picture of quarterback and tight end hit rates. Before we get into the nuts and bolts, also make sure you check out my dynasty and rookie rankings and my video analysis of all positional hit rates. You can also follow hit me up on Instagram @TheFantasyFirstDown and on Twitter @FantasyFirstDwn if you have any questions.

For this article, players were placed into one of 8 categories:

Superstars: A top 2 fantasy finish and 7+ years of fantasy-relevant production

Studs: A top 5 fantasy finish and 5+ years of fantasy-relevant production

Starters: A top 12 fantasy finish and 4+ years of fantasy-relevant production

Backups: A top 18 fantasy finish and 4+ years of fantasy-relevant production

Solid players: A top 30 fantasy finish and 4+ years of fantasy-relevant production

Brief Booms: A top 5 fantasy finish and less than 4 years of fantasy-relevant production

Brief Values: A top 30 fantasy finish and 2-3 years of fantasy-relevant production

Bust: Less than 2 years of fantasy-relevant production and no top 5 finishes

I also ignored any players who are too early in their careers to be fairly categorized. This included almost all players drafted in 2023. You’ll notice that my cutoffs are half that of running backs and wide receivers. This is to reflect most leagues starting only one quarterback and one tight end.

The full results are listed at the bottom of this article.

Top 16 Tight End Picks (Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren)

The sample size may be tiny, but early tight end picks always hit. Last year in this article, I was extremely high on Brock Bowers, suggesting picking him up in every league. I’ll be a lot more cagey this year though. While I do expect Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren will be positive fantasy assets in the long term, they have serious concerns regarding their supporting casts and their deservingness as Top 16 picks.

Loveland was a surprise Top 10 pick and was initially expected to go after Warren, though he was always a Top 20 talent for me as an every down asset who should be the primary receiving tight end for the Bears while also providing some solid blocking in the long-term. But Cole Kmet is still going to be involved as a blocking tight end and this could easily look like more of a Dalton Kincaid/Dawson Knox situation than most believe. That’s before we consider the impact of three talented receivers, an unproven quarterback and a good receiving running back. Loveland is a Round 2 rookie pick for me and I’ll be avoiding him in all redraft leagues.

Warren on the other hand is at least a clear every down tight end for the Colts and has a clearer path to Bowers-style production than Loveland. Warren’s greatest threat is his quarterbacks, with Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones both unlikely to support high-end fantasy production when there are plenty of solid wide receivers also hanging around. Plus Jonathan Taylor is the true top weapon in this offense. Hence I’d suggest taking Warren from Pick 8 onwards in rookie drafts, depending on your needs and the league settings, but I’ll be avoiding him in redraft leagues unless he falls into the later rounds.

Mid-Late 2^nd Round Tight End Picks (Mason Taylor, Terrance Ferguson and Elijah Arroyo)

Things get pretty ugly for tight ends by the late second round. While there have been plenty of solid tight end starters in this range, an almost 50% bust rate should be enough to scare you off being bullish on any of this year’s 2^nd round rookies. Mason Taylor goes into the best situation, as the likely starter taking over from consistent Top 20 fantasy asset Tyler Conklin. Taylor is an every down player with little target competition outside Garrett Wilson, but Justin Fields is a serious limiting factor. Meanwhile Terrance Ferguson also has every down potential but I believe he was a reach in this range and will likely sit behind Tyler Higbee if the veteran is healthy. And anyway, how badly do you really want the Rams tight end anyway? Finally Elijah Arroyo is arguably the best receiving tight end in this group, but will he even win a clear starting job over Noah Fant? He could be a real fantasy asset if Sam Darnold uses him like TJ Hockenson, but I think he’s more likely to end up in a committee until he improves his blocking. Of these three, I’d take Taylor in the mid-late 2^nd round of rookie drafts with the other two closer to 3^rd round picks. Taylor is the only one I’d consider in redraft leagues and even then, that would be in the late rounds of deeper leagues.

3^rd Round Tight End Picks (Harold Fannin Jr)

The top tight end for fantasy has been drafted in the 3^rd round in the majority of the last 20 seasons, but I still wouldn’t be too high on Harold Fannin Jr. He’s a talented pass catcher but he’s very much a project player who needs a lot of work on his blocking. While two-thirds of 3^rd round tight ends will be busts, many of these are pure blockers like Tip Reimann and Darnell Washington. Hence we can be a little more positive about a true receiving weapon like Fannin. While he’s clearly behind David Njoku right now, he’s only an injury away from fantasy relevance and he could easily be a starter within a couple of years. For that reason, I’d consider him in the 4^th round of rookie drafts, but not in redraft leagues.

Early Day 3 Tight End Picks (Gunnar Helm, Mitchell Evans, Oronde Gadsden, Jackson Hawes and Robbie Ouzts)

The majority of Day 3 tight ends will bust but you will occasionally find a George Kittle or Jake Ferguson among the chaff. While the 77% bust rate is scary, it’s important to recognise that many of these players were drafted as blocking tight ends and we knew that at the time.  Jackson Hawes and Robbie Ouzts definitely fit in this category, but the other three all have the potential to be every down starters if they can win the starting role. I do question though how valuable that is for fantasy. The Titans, Panthers and Chargers haven’t had a fantasy-relevant tight end this decade so I’m not willing to take a punt on that suddenly happening with these day three rookies.

Late Day 3 Tight End Picks (Gavin Bartholomew, Thomas Fidone, Caleb Lohner, Moliki Matavao and Luke Lachey)

Three words: Don’t Do It! The biggest fantasy successes in this range have been Darren Waller (who was drafted as a wide receiver) and Ryan Griffin. That’s among 65 players over 14 years. Yikes! While I personally expected Luke Lachey to go earlier in the draft as a solid pass-catching tight end who battled injuries in college, the NFL has spoken. Outside the deepest of leagues, leave these guys on waivers.