Funny things happen to all of us psychologically early on in the Fantasy Football season. What I am proposing is that we accept it and try to figure out how to use it to our advantage.

After we draft our players we see everything through rose-colored glasses. We feel smart. All our studs will be studs, we’re sure of it. Our Sleepers will awaken (how could they do otherwise?) Our leaguemates will be sooooo jealous. Then we start to hear psychological “footsteps.”

Post-draft ecstasy is replaced by the early-season bogeyman. Overconfidence transforms in to paranoia. Suddenly your competitors rosters look dynamite! What happened? It is simply a natural reversal of emotions.

Relax. Take a deep breathe. Everyone experiences this. You’re OK, I’m OK, we’re all OK! Well, except for your leaguemates hopefully.

All right so we all love our teams post-draft, then we get really nervous right before the season, then we freak out when our star players falter. Nothing mind-blowing here. What is this information useful for? Taking advantage of our leaguemates in trades.

Sometimes getting an edge simply requires not following the herd. Often that’s the only way to be extremely successful relative to others.

Think about the economic meltdown. There were some investors that got out of mortgage-backed securities (and the market, in general). At the time the “experts” who thought we were in a “permanent Bull market” would have ridiculed such large-scale selloffs and moving assets in to more stable, safer investments.

Conversely there were few people bold enough to take advantage and jump back in to the market when it bottomed out. Those that did reaped enormous gains. If you went against the herd in both instances you came out a big winner.

Refusing to take on risk will require you to get lucky to win your league. We need to target assets (players) that are depressed in value; preferably trading them for our assets (players) that are over-valued.

Produced and Should Keep it up:

Cedric Benson

DeSean Jackson (will play even better than he did today from here on out)

Justin Gage

Aaron Rodgers

Reggie Wayne (value is HUGE now with the Gonzalez injury)

Dallas Clark

Patrick Crayton (could end up the #1 receiver)

Disappointing But Should Turn it Around:

Andre Johnson

Jason Witten

Steven Jackson

Steve Slaton

Can’t Keep up the Pace:

Santonio Holmes

Thomas Jones

Could be a Huge Disappointment:

LaDanian Tomlinson

Brandon Jacobs

Steve Smith (Carolina)

Pierre Thomas

  1. adamh says:
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    Speaking of Thomas Jones, who is a better guy to have rostered for potential payoff in the future: Shonn Greene of Rashard Mendenhall?

  2. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
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    Yay! I have 2 of the 4 “Disappointed But Should Turn It Around” list. And they were my first 2 picks!

  3. Matt B says:
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    Which side do you like in a PPR: Brady & Desean Jackson or Rodgers & Greg Jennings?

  4. GTS says:
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    Start Crayton vs NYG or Driver vs CIN this week?

  5. Dad says:
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    Nice write-up Drew. I totally agree (and am currently dealing with) the post-draft -> post-week 1 psychology shift.

    Speaking of which…

    @Doc @Drew: Is dropping the SD defense for Atl too knee-jerk or a good idea going forward? They looked pretty shaky week 1 with lots of question marks.

    Also, Doc: curious if the tiers will be updated throughout the season of if that was just a draft aid. Either way, very helpful. Thanks.

  6. Dingo says:
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    So who would be a good player to target in a sell-LDT trade? Slaton or Jackson?

  7. Fresh says:
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    drop avery for crayton? no ppr, just 100yds and tds score points

  8. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @GTS: Driver

    @Dad: I still like SD. Hoping Merriman comes around and Sproles gets one into the endzone. But I do play matchups often and I like ATL this week. Which of course doesn’t answer your question! If you can hold 2 D’s for a week yes, if not, no. Balt does have to travel across the country and SD should be primed.

    @Dingo: Jackson.

    @Fresh: Yes.

  9. Dad says:
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    @Doc: Thanks. Dropped Fasano for the week (have Gates).

  10. Trevor says:
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    Justin Gage to the probowl! I said it 2 months ago and I got him on all 7 teams. I have read hundreds of articles and never heard him mentioned until right before the season on here

  11. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Dad: i had SD D on both teams. i dropped them both for the falcons this week. i am pretty confident i’ll be able to pick them both back up next week if i want them. if not, i’ll play the amtchup game or ride atl (minus the games v. the saints) for awhile. if it was later in the season and i knew how my late round picks/sleepers were gonna shake out then i’d be more likely to hold both Ds, but this early, i don’t wanna waive the wrong sleeper.

    also, anyone else pick up a heap to play TE this week? i watched most of the ravens game and he looked good, and the chargers have been horrid against TEs for going on 3 years now, and zach miller ate them alive on monday night. i’m starting heap over olsen in my primary league.

  12. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: I was thinking about dropping Josh Morgan for Heap and playing him over Kellen Winslow this week…though Winslow did get me a TD in Week 1.

  13. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: I like Heap a lot vs. SD this week.

    I wouldn’t drop Winslow, but if you feel comfortable dropping someone else go for it. I do still like Morgan quite a bit, but depends on your roster.

  14. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
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    @Doc: I like Morgan too, but getting Marshall for Julius Jones helps my WR core. I have a feeling I can get Morgan back anyway unless he busts out a 100+ yard game with at least one TD.

  15. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Dad: I’ll see what I can do about the tiers. Wouldn’t be too hard, but I may do a quarterly update around week 4.

  16. Brotha B says:
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    Bowe Berrian Harvin LMoore EBennett…..
    3 WR league what do you think?

  17. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
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    @Brotha B: Bowe, Bennett, and Harvin.

  18. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Brotha B: Bowe, Berrian, Harvin I think the Lions have enough bad D to spread around. And the Steelers will be tough.

  19. sickmangarner says:
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    My D is San Diego but I’ve been offered the Steelers for Ryan Grant who is my backup behind MJD and Slaton.

    Thoughts?

  20. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @sickmangarner: I wouldn’t. They are the Steelers, but they are still a defense. If you were to draft today they would still go 90+ and Grant would go much earlier.

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