Funny things happen to all of us psychologically early on in the Fantasy Football season. What I am proposing is that we accept it and try to figure out how to use it to our advantage.
After we draft our players we see everything through rose-colored glasses. We feel smart. All our studs will be studs, we’re sure of it. Our Sleepers will awaken (how could they do otherwise?) Our leaguemates will be sooooo jealous. Then we start to hear psychological “footsteps.”
Post-draft ecstasy is replaced by the early-season bogeyman. Overconfidence transforms in to paranoia. Suddenly your competitors rosters look dynamite! What happened? It is simply a natural reversal of emotions.
Relax. Take a deep breathe. Everyone experiences this. You’re OK, I’m OK, we’re all OK! Well, except for your leaguemates hopefully.
All right so we all love our teams post-draft, then we get really nervous right before the season, then we freak out when our star players falter. Nothing mind-blowing here. What is this information useful for? Taking advantage of our leaguemates in trades.
Sometimes getting an edge simply requires not following the herd. Often that’s the only way to be extremely successful relative to others.
Think about the economic meltdown. There were some investors that got out of mortgage-backed securities (and the market, in general). At the time the “experts” who thought we were in a “permanent Bull market” would have ridiculed such large-scale selloffs and moving assets in to more stable, safer investments.
Conversely there were few people bold enough to take advantage and jump back in to the market when it bottomed out. Those that did reaped enormous gains. If you went against the herd in both instances you came out a big winner.
Refusing to take on risk will require you to get lucky to win your league. We need to target assets (players) that are depressed in value; preferably trading them for our assets (players) that are over-valued.
Produced and Should Keep it up:
Cedric Benson
DeSean Jackson (will play even better than he did today from here on out)
Justin Gage
Aaron Rodgers
Reggie Wayne (value is HUGE now with the Gonzalez injury)
Dallas Clark
Patrick Crayton (could end up the #1 receiver)
Disappointing But Should Turn it Around:
Andre Johnson
Jason Witten
Steven Jackson
Steve Slaton
Can’t Keep up the Pace:
Santonio Holmes
Thomas Jones
Could be a Huge Disappointment:
LaDanian Tomlinson
Brandon Jacobs
Steve Smith (Carolina)
Pierre Thomas
