In a down year for rookie wide receivers, looking for fantasy value is more important than usual. To find out what you should expect from Travis Hunter etc, I’ll be looking at the career hit rates of players drafted in the ranges of this year’s rookies, categorizing them based on their career fantasy production both in the short- and long-term. I’ll judge players based on their peak success and their longevity to create an overall picture of wide receiver hit rate. Also make sure you check out my dynasty and rookie rankings and my video analysis of all positional hit rates. You can also follow hit me up on Instagram @TheFantasyFirstDown and on Twitter @FantasyFirstDwn if you have any questions.
I looked at fantasy production from all wide receivers drafted since 2010, though I looked as far back as 2004 for the earlier picks to get a better sample size. Players were placed into one of 8 categories:
Superstars: A top 5 fantasy finish and 7+ years of fantasy-relevant production
Studs: A top 10 fantasy finish and 5+ years of fantasy-relevant production
WR2s: A top 24 fantasy finish and 4+ years of fantasy-relevant production
WR3s: A top 36 fantasy finish and 4+ years of fantasy-relevant production
Solid players: A top 60 fantasy finish and 4+ years of fantasy-relevant production
Brief Booms: A top 10 fantasy finish and less than 4 years of fantasy-relevant production
Brief Values: A top 60 fantasy finish and 2-4 years of fantasy-relevant production
Bust: Less than 2 years of fantasy-relevant production and no top 10 finishes
I also ignored any players who are too early in their careers to be fairly categorized. This included almost all players drafted in 2024. The full results are listed at the bottom of this article.
Top 10 picks (Travis Hunter and Tetairoa McMillan)
It’s no surprise that wide receivers drafted in the top 10 are most likely to be fantasy assets but I must admit I’m surprised by just how successful they’ve been. Half of these top 10 picks since 2004 have at least one top 10 fantasy finish alongside a long period of fantasy football relevance. We’re talking superstars like Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, AJ Green, Mike Evans, Ja’Marr Chase and Larry Fitzgerald. In fact, there have only been six busts in the last two decades, with only John Ross and Kevin White failing in the last ten years. As an added bonus, top ten picks are also less likely to suffer significant injuries, presumedly as teams won’t draft injury risks this early. Malik Nabers continued this trend last year, and while the jury is still out on Marvin Harrison Jr and Rome Odunze, this data should encourage you to buy low on those two.
This year’s rookie pair are unusual but for differing reasons. Travis Hunter brings a unique skillset but he’s also not a true top ten wide receiver selection. While it’s unclear where he would have been picked if he wasn’t an elite two-way player, I think it’s safe to say it wouldn’t be in the top ten. Likewise, Tetairoa McMillan is a talented player but he really only made the top ten this year because it’s such a weak draft class lacking top end talent. And even this year, he’s considered by many, including myself, as a serious reach. For that reason, I consider Hunter and McMillan as more comparable to mid 1st round picks. In other words, I think they have low boom upside but a still unlikely to truly bust.
Mid 1st round picks (Emeka Egbuka and Matthew Golden)
In analyzing the data, there seemed to be a significant drop-off in fantasy production from Pick 25 onwards. While mid 1st rounders are less likely to be fantasy league winners, they’re just as unlikely to bust, with most of these players proving valuable fantasy options over the last twenty years. Brian Thomas, CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson are the more recent stars, but Odell Beckham Jr, Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant have all proven fantastic fantasy commodities too. It’s especially notable that four of these players were picked in the 21-24 range, right where Matthew Golden fell. Golden is the safer of this year’s mid-1st selections, as he likely slots in as the immediate WR1 in Green Bay. But there’s serious question marks around his capacity to be a true alpha receiver. In truth, he profiles more like Jordan Addison or Jameson Williams as an explosive deep threat better suited to being his team’s WR2. Meanwhile, Emeka Egbuka has an unclear role out of the gate, something that has been the case with many busts in this range, such as Treylon Burks, Kadarius Toney and Jalen Reagor. But unlike these three, he has legitimate first round talent and should earn a role at some stage in the future, given the opportunities most first rounders eventually receive.
Late 1st round/Early 2nd round picks (Jayden Higgins and Luther Burden)
2024 saw a record six players drafted in this region, with mixed results. Ladd McConkey had a great fantasy season while Xavier Worthy, Xavier Legette and Keon Coleman at least had an every-down role. But the jury is still out on many of these players in their second year. Meanwhile, the top names in this range over the past decade have been Deebo Samuel, Calvin Ridley, Deandre Hopkins, Hakeem Nicks, Jordy Nelson and Roddy Brown. This does represent a notable drop-off at the top end but the real concern is the downside. Over half of the players drafted in this round have failed to produce more than a couple of years of fantasy production. Promisingly, the only true busts since 2016 have been N’Keal Harry and Jonathan Mingo, with Ja’Lynn Polk heading that way. That gives some hope that many of these players will, at the very least, be solid fantasy producers for you over the next 5-10 years. Both Jayden Higgins and Luther Burden slide into backed receiver rooms in good offenses meaning elite production is highly unlikely out of the gate, but I could see either sliding into a solid WR2 role within the next season or two.Â
Mid-late 2nd round picks (Tre Harris and Jack Bech)
Over the previous six drafts, picks 41-64 averaged 4.5 wide receivers. But in the last two years that has dropped to three players combined going in this range, with most receiver-needy teams already grabbing their guy earlier. Mid 2nd rounders are nearly as likely to boom as earlier picks, but they are also far more likely to bust, with 60% of these players failing to offer you multiple fantasy seasons of quality. The upside is still there though, with guns like AJ Brown, Michael Thomas, Davante Adams and DK Metcalf all going in this range. Tre Harris has the most upside of the two rookie in 2025 and he compares favorably to Adams as a big-bodied receiver who joins a talented smaller receiver with the opportunity to, over time, become the team’s alpha receiver. However, Quentin Johnston’s improvement shouldn’t be discounted and this, combined with the team’s likely recommitment to the run game, maybe limit Harris’s opportunities. Meanwhile Jack Bech profiles far more like a Tyquan Thornton or a Terrace Marshall as a reach going into a weak offense that will get opportunities but seems less likely to perform.
3rd round picks (Kyle Williams, Isaac TeSlaa, Pat Bryant, Jaylin Noel, Savion Williams and Tai Felton)
The 3rd round has seen its fair share of superstars, with TY Hilton, Keenan Allen, Chris Godwin and Cooper Kupp all going late on day 2 while Tank Dell and Cedric Tillman showed plenty of boom upside before injuries took over. But for every success story, there are several Jalin Hyatts, a few Malachi Corleys and a Velus Jones or two. You only need to look at last year’s third rounders to see roughly what we should expect with this group. Jalen McMillan was the only one to finish inside the top 100 for fantasy and he likely starts 2025 as his team’s WR4 (injuries ignored). So don’t get over-excited by this group of rookies. While Kyle Williams, Tai Felton and Pat Bryant have clear paths to fantasy relevance, their perceived talent means they are more likely to finish as one of the 70%+ of third rounders who never even finish in the Top 40 for fantasy. Isaac TeSlaa is my favorite boom prospect in this range though. He has an talent upside most others don’t and, with Jameson Williams possibly out of town in the next season or so, has a clear path to a big role in a great team. Don’t overspend, but if you want to shoot for the moon, that’s where I’d target.
Early Day 3 picks (Chimere Dike, Dont’e Thornton, Arian Smith, Elic Ayomanor and others)
Remember last year when many fantasy analysts were touting the likes of Troy Franklin and Javon Baker? Well, I can tell you in this same article twelve months ago, I was suggesting the total opposite. Nearly 80% of early Day 3 picks totally bust while plenty more are, at best, passable fantasy options for a couple of years. Since 2012 only Amon-Ra St Brown, Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs have been fantasy gold mines, while nearly 100 players have ended up off dynasty rosters in a season or two. Don’t get me wrong, I love the upside of Arian Smith et al, but I’m not taking them until very late in drafts and I would never give up even a moderate fantasy asset for any of these receivers. Buyer beware.
Later Day 3 picks (Tez Johnson, Jimmy Horn, Ricky White, Kaden Prather and others)
100 players have been drafted in round 6 or 7 in the last decade. The most successful? Jauan Jennings. And yeah, he is someone you definitely want on your fantasy roster, but he was drafted in 2020! How many of his rookie draft owners kept him on their benches for five years? Behind Jennings, Russell Gage and Noah Brown have multiple top 60 fantasy finishes, while Donovan Peoples-Jones was the WR36 before being off fantasy rosters faster than you could say his name. Sure, Antonio Brown was a sixth round pick way back in 2010 but he is very much the exception rather than the rule. I would avoid drafting this year’s crop outside very deep leagues where Demario Douglas, Malik Washington and Devaughn Vele are considered fantasy assets. And in that case, I’d still be taking those guys over the rookies.
Undrafted rookies
By my last count, there are nearly 100 undrafted rookie wide receivers on NFL rosters right now. Should you be drafting them? Well, no. While Adam Thielen, Robbie Chosen, Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne and Jalen Coker have made their way onto fantasy rosters after going undrafted, the odds of you correctly picking the right rookie is negligible. Even in 32-team leagues, I’ll be leaving these players on waivers.
|
Finishes |
Top 10 |
11-24 |
25-40 |
41-64 |
3rd |
4th/5th |
6th/7th |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Superstars |
25.0% |
15.6% |
14.6% |
6.3% |
7.8% |
3.7% |
0.0% |
|
|
Studs |
29.2% |
18.8% |
0.0% |
14.6% |
3.9% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
Starters |
4.2% |
21.9% |
19.5% |
12.5% |
5.9% |
0.9% |
0.0% |
|
|
Backups |
8.3% |
3.1% |
4.9% |
4.2% |
3.9% |
5.6% |
1.0% |
|
|
Solid |
0.0% |
3.1% |
2.4% |
4.2% |
2.0% |
0.9% |
0.0% |
|
|
Brief Booms |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
2.0% |
0.9% |
0.0% |
|
|
Brief Values |
8.3% |
15.6% |
22.0% |
16.7% |
17.6% |
9.3% |
4.0% |
|
|
Busts |
25.0% |
21.9% |
36.6% |
47.9% |
56.9% |
78.7% |
95.0% |
|
|
First Year |
2004 |
2005 |
2005 |
2009 |
2012 |
2012 |
2014 |
|
|
Total |
24 |
32 |
41 |
48 |
51 |
108 |
100 |
|
