It’s a bird. It’s a plane. It’s malamoney’s fantasy football rankings. The best thing about rankings and projections is that no one ever calls you out for having absolutely sh!tty projections. It’s not until months later when the season is over that projections can really be evaluated for efficiency, and by that time who really give a flying [fill in the blank]. Not to mention, who’s actually going to take the time to do so.
Here is my process for generating projections. Step one. Develop a random number generator. Step two. Generate hundreds of random numbers. Step three. Publish projections. Okay, so that’s not exactly how I get from point A to point B. Truth be told, I wouldn’t be surprised if there were some sources out there that did.
First I calculate my own set of player projections. Next I download between five and ten other sets of projections. Finally I take all of the projections, including my own, and run them through a program I’ve written that averages all of the projections together. I considered dropping the high and the low scores, but that just seemed a little counterintuitive. Besides, it’s not like I’m judging figure skating over here. The biggest pain in the ass is dealing with all the various spellings of the same name. Odell Beckham Jr. versus just Odell Beckham. Steve Smith Sr. versus just Steve Smith. T.Y. Hilton (with the dots) versus Ty Hilton. And how about Le’Veon Bell (with the apostrophe) versus LeVeon Bell. When the dust finally settles and I’ve lined up all the edges, I have my projections.
If you are interested in my positional rankings based on projected points, please take a look at my last post, The Adventure of Bidding. If you are just too damn lazy to click a link, I will summarize…
Quarterback
Player | FPTS | PPG |
Cam Newton | 346.23 | 21.63 |
Russell Wilson | 329.03 | 20.56 |
Aaron Rodgers | 318.91 | 19.93 |
Andrew Luck | 300.74 | 18.79 |
Drew Brees | 292.68 | 18.29 |
Tom Brady | 238.26 | 19.85 |
Blake Bortles | 282.51 | 17.65 |
Ben Roethlisberger | 281.32 | 17.58 |
Carson Palmer | 275.26 | 17.20 |
Tyrod Taylor | 274.33 | 17.14 |
Eli Manning | 270.44 | 16.90 |
Philip Rivers | 268.13 | 16.75 |
Matthew Stafford | 265.72 | 16.60 |
Kirk Cousins | 264.75 | 16.54 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | 262.36 | 16.39 |
Andy Dalton | 261.04 | 16.31 |
Jameis Winston | 256.26 | 16.01 |
Derek Carr | 255.95 | 15.99 |
Tony Romo | 252.28 | 15.76 |
Matt Ryan | 251.69 | 15.73 |
Ryan Tannehill | 247.15 | 15.44 |
I’ve moved Tom Brady into the six hole. His projected points are based on 12 games, but his points per game is the fourth best. However, since you are forced to draft another quarterback for the first four weeks, I ranked him after Andrew Luck and Drew Brees.
Running Back
Player | FPTS PPR | FPTS Half | FPTS STD |
David Johnson | 277.42 | 250.24 | 223.06 |
Todd Gurley | 261.93 | 243.99 | 226.04 |
Jamaal Charles | 252.64 | 229.65 | 206.66 |
Le’Veon Bell | 252.07 | 225.77 | 199.48 |
Devonta Freeman | 251.66 | 221.15 | 190.65 |
Lamar Miller | 245.38 | 223.00 | 200.63 |
Adrian Peterson | 244.42 | 228.80 | 213.18 |
Mark Ingram | 239.14 | 213.18 | 187.23 |
Ezekiel Elliott | 231.71 | 213.13 | 194.56 |
LeSean McCoy | 227.36 | 207.20 | 187.03 |
Matt Forte | 209.28 | 187.28 | 165.29 |
Eddie Lacy | 209.24 | 193.30 | 177.36 |
Doug Martin | 208.35 | 192.51 | 176.66 |
C.J. Anderson | 205.23 | 187.71 | 170.19 |
Latavius Murray | 199.04 | 180.63 | 162.21 |
Danny Woodhead | 196.59 | 161.62 | 126.65 |
Thomas Rawls | 193.67 | 182.78 | 171.88 |
Carlos Hyde | 190.82 | 173.92 | 157.02 |
Jeremy Langford | 188.45 | 170.59 | 152.74 |
Giovani Bernard | 186.38 | 162.59 | 138.79 |
Duke Johnson | 186.23 | 156.59 | 126.94 |
DeMarco Murray | 185.24 | 168.34 | 151.44 |
Ryan Mathews | 178.36 | 162.31 | 146.26 |
Matt Jones | 172.88 | 158.02 | 143.17 |
Jonathan Stewart | 171.25 | 160.99 | 150.73 |
Jeremy Hill | 168.99 | 159.61 | 150.23 |
Melvin Gordon | 168.52 | 149.88 | 131.25 |
T.J. Yeldon | 165.74 | 146.60 | 127.46 |
Ameer Abdullah | 165.51 | 148.36 | 131.21 |
Theo Riddick | 164.13 | 131.91 | 99.69 |
Charles Sims | 162.00 | 138.69 | 115.37 |
Frank Gore | 161.08 | 146.88 | 132.68 |
Arian Foster | 160.24 | 142.86 | 125.48 |
Rashad Jennings | 158.48 | 143.84 | 129.21 |
Dion Lewis | 152.63 | 127.63 | 102.63 |
Justin Forsett | 147.03 | 131.42 | 115.80 |
Shane Vereen | 146.54 | 120.96 | 95.37 |
Isaiah Crowell | 136.10 | 126.51 | 116.91 |
LeGarrette Blount | 135.24 | 129.02 | 122.81 |
Chris Ivory | 131.34 | 120.99 | 110.65 |
LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte and Eddie Lacy all interest me this year if I can get them in the right round. These are all players that were first rounders a year ago. Ok, maybe two.
Wide Receiver
Player | FPTS PPR | FPTS Half | FPTS STD |
Antonio Brown | 361.86 | 298.61 | 235.37 |
Julio Jones | 334.61 | 274.49 | 214.36 |
Odell Beckham Jr. | 318.86 | 268.95 | 219.04 |
DeAndre Hopkins | 301.31 | 250.60 | 199.89 |
Keenan Allen | 265.76 | 212.89 | 160.03 |
A.J. Green | 264.66 | 221.41 | 178.15 |
Brandon Marshall | 264.57 | 219.41 | 174.25 |
Jordy Nelson | 263.34 | 220.27 | 177.20 |
Allen Robinson | 262.17 | 221.22 | 180.27 |
Dez Bryant | 261.76 | 220.03 | 178.31 |
Alshon Jeffery | 258.68 | 215.73 | 172.79 |
Brandin Cooks | 252.32 | 209.02 | 165.72 |
Jarvis Landry | 246.82 | 196.89 | 146.96 |
Demaryius Thomas | 246.32 | 202.15 | 157.99 |
Mike Evans | 245.01 | 205.41 | 165.81 |
Sammy Watkins | 244.31 | 206.49 | 168.68 |
Amari Cooper | 244.24 | 202.50 | 160.76 |
T.Y. Hilton | 240.55 | 202.04 | 163.52 |
Randall Cobb | 235.08 | 193.97 | 152.87 |
Julian Edelman | 234.24 | 188.14 | 142.04 |
Golden Tate | 230.07 | 184.57 | 139.07 |
Jeremy Maclin | 228.22 | 187.39 | 146.56 |
Eric Decker | 227.02 | 187.89 | 148.76 |
Doug Baldwin | 222.53 | 185.53 | 148.54 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 222.01 | 179.76 | 137.52 |
Kelvin Benjamin | 218.34 | 183.11 | 147.88 |
Jordan Matthews | 213.65 | 173.97 | 134.28 |
Emmanuel Sanders | 213.55 | 176.58 | 139.61 |
Donte Moncrief | 207.18 | 170.68 | 134.17 |
Michael Floyd | 203.05 | 171.73 | 140.42 |
Michael Crabtree | 197.61 | 160.00 | 122.39 |
Allen Hurns | 193.85 | 162.85 | 131.85 |
DeSean Jackson | 191.71 | 162.25 | 132.78 |
John Brown | 190.72 | 159.67 | 128.61 |
DeVante Parker | 189.26 | 159.01 | 128.76 |
Tyler Lockett | 189.11 | 157.84 | 126.58 |
Marvin Jones | 187.53 | 153.66 | 119.79 |
Stefon Diggs | 180.60 | 148.96 | 117.33 |
Willie Snead | 179.05 | 146.15 | 113.24 |
Torrey Smith | 176.11 | 148.50 | 120.88 |
I think owning one of Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr. or DeAndre Hopkins is a must. But that’s just me.
Tight End
Player | FPTS PPR | FPTS Half | FPTS STD |
Rob Gronkowski | 244.90 | 204.87 | 164.85 |
Jordan Reed | 212.21 | 169.87 | 127.53 |
Greg Olsen | 212.09 | 174.24 | 136.39 |
Delanie Walker | 195.06 | 157.88 | 120.69 |
Coby Fleener | 186.61 | 150.96 | 115.32 |
Travis Kelce | 185.69 | 149.62 | 113.55 |
Gary Barnidge | 171.92 | 141.03 | 110.15 |
Antonio Gates | 169.41 | 138.03 | 106.64 |
Zach Ertz | 167.55 | 134.24 | 100.93 |
Jason Witten | 164.29 | 129.52 | 94.75 |
Tyler Eifert | 161.10 | 132.77 | 104.44 |
Julius Thomas | 156.47 | 127.33 | 98.18 |
Jimmy Graham | 153.42 | 125.09 | 96.75 |
Martellus Bennett | 148.91 | 120.94 | 92.96 |
Dwayne Allen | 146.87 | 119.84 | 92.81 |
Zach Miller | 144.51 | 119.56 | 94.60 |
Charles Clay | 144.15 | 115.50 | 86.85 |
Eric Ebron | 135.64 | 109.99 | 84.34 |
Ladarius Green | 125.97 | 102.64 | 79.31 |
Kyle Rudolph | 124.08 | 100.06 | 76.03 |
Jordan Cameron | 116.12 | 94.09 | 72.07 |
In order to get Rob Gronkowski you are likely going to have to use your first round pick. I’m just not sure I could do that. If he’s there in the second round I’d likely grab him, but I might try and grab another top RB or WR and wait a round or so for Jordan Reed or Greg Olsen. Ideally I’d like to have one of those three, but since when have you even been able to draft your ideal team?
Ok, now that we have positional rankings, how do I know whether I should take Devonta Freeman or Allen Robinson? How do I compare players across positions?
The first step is get yourself a set of reliable projections. Check! In fantasy football there is only one category that counts. Points. The key to determining position-adjusted rankings is trying to figure out how much more valuable each player is than the replacement level player at his primary position. The replacement level player is the guy that can be typically found on the waiver wire. Or in leagues with a reasonable bench, the replacement player would be the player on your bench that you want rostered, but almost never put in your lineup. You always want to make sure you are starting a player better than this player.
My calculations assume the following starting lineup:Â QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, Flex
In a 12-team league I figure here’s how many players at each position I believe are ahead of the replacement player.
QB (12), RB (32), WR (40), TE (12)
The nth+1 player at each position is the replacement player. Once we have our list of players at each position completed we can calculate each player’s z-scores
Z-SCORE = (Player’s Projected Points – Average Projected Points For All Players At That Position In Our Pool) / Standard Deviation For That Data Set
The next step is to determine each player’s fantasy value over replacement. We do this by taking the replacement player and subtracting his z-score value from everyone else at his position. The result is fantasy value over replacement. Once we’ve done this for each position, we can then start to compare players across positions.
Based on the above criteria, here are my position-adjusted rankings for PPR leagues.
Player | POS | FVARz | FPTS PPR | Rank | ADP | ADPD |
Antonio Brown | WR | 5.3475 | 298.61 | 1 | 1.08 | 0.08 |
Julio Jones | WR | 4.5013 | 274.49 | 2 | 2.78 | 0.78 |
Odell Beckham Jr. | WR | 4.3072 | 268.95 | 3 | 2.72 | -0.28 |
Rob Gronkowski | TE | 3.8653 | 204.87 | 4 | 10.98 | 6.98 |
DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 3.6637 | 250.60 | 5 | 6.12 | 1.12 |
David Johnson | RB | 3.3329 | 250.24 | 6 | 5.87 | -0.13 |
Todd Gurley | RB | 3.1388 | 243.99 | 7 | 5.15 | -1.85 |
Cam Newton | QB | 2.9810 | 346.23 | 8 | 31.10 | 23.10 |
Jamaal Charles | RB | 2.6939 | 229.65 | 9 | 18.58 | 9.58 |
Adrian Peterson | RB | 2.6673 | 228.80 | 10 | 8.22 | -1.78 |
A.J. Green | WR | 2.6396 | 221.41 | 11 | 8.53 | -2.47 |
Allen Robinson | WR | 2.6330 | 221.22 | 12 | 12.57 | 0.57 |
Jordy Nelson | WR | 2.5998 | 220.27 | 13 | 18.70 | 5.70 |
Dez Bryant | WR | 2.5915 | 220.03 | 14 | 10.17 | -3.83 |
Le’Veon Bell | RB | 2.5734 | 225.77 | 15 | 13.13 | -1.87 |
Brandon Marshall | WR | 2.5697 | 219.41 | 16 | 17.63 | 1.63 |
Lamar Miller | RB | 2.4875 | 223.00 | 17 | 12.48 | -4.52 |
Alshon Jeffery | WR | 2.4406 | 215.73 | 18 | 20.80 | 2.80 |
Devonta Freeman | RB | 2.4301 | 221.15 | 19 | 16.75 | -2.25 |
Russell Wilson | QB | 2.3697 | 329.03 | 20 | 50.87 | 30.87 |
Keenan Allen | WR | 2.3409 | 212.89 | 21 | 20.08 | -0.92 |
Greg Olsen | TE | 2.2942 | 174.24 | 22 | 43.53 | 21.53 |
Brandin Cooks | WR | 2.2051 | 209.02 | 23 | 25.45 | 2.45 |
Mark Ingram | RB | 2.1827 | 213.18 | 24 | 23.22 | -0.78 |
Ezekiel Elliott | RB | 2.1811 | 213.13 | 25 | 10.05 | -14.95 |
Sammy Watkins | WR | 2.1165 | 206.49 | 26 | 29.90 | 3.90 |
Mike Evans | WR | 2.0786 | 205.41 | 27 | 21.53 | -5.47 |
Jordan Reed | TE | 2.0699 | 169.87 | 28 | 35.68 | 7.68 |
Aaron Rodgers | QB | 2.0099 | 318.91 | 29 | 38.00 | 9.00 |
LeSean McCoy | RB | 1.9970 | 207.20 | 30 | 27.63 | -2.37 |
Amari Cooper | WR | 1.9766 | 202.50 | 31 | 24.07 | -6.93 |
Demaryius Thomas | WR | 1.9642 | 202.15 | 32 | 28.32 | -3.68 |
T.Y. Hilton | WR | 1.9602 | 202.04 | 33 | 30.23 | -2.77 |
Jarvis Landry | WR | 1.7797 | 196.89 | 34 | 34.47 | 0.47 |
Randall Cobb | WR | 1.6774 | 193.97 | 35 | 37.48 | 2.48 |
Eddie Lacy | RB | 1.5657 | 193.30 | 36 | 26.17 | -9.83 |
Doug Martin | RB | 1.5410 | 192.51 | 37 | 26.68 | -10.32 |
Julian Edelman | WR | 1.4727 | 188.14 | 38 | 35.33 | -2.67 |
Eric Decker | WR | 1.4641 | 187.89 | 39 | 45.92 | 6.92 |
Delanie Walker | TE | 1.4547 | 157.88 | 40 | 61.05 | 21.05 |
Jeremy Maclin | WR | 1.4466 | 187.39 | 41 | 42.35 | 1.35 |
C.J. Anderson | RB | 1.3923 | 187.71 | 42 | 36.50 | -5.50 |
Doug Baldwin | WR | 1.3813 | 185.53 | 43 | 46.68 | 3.68 |
Matt Forte | RB | 1.3789 | 187.28 | 44 | 42.73 | -1.27 |
Andrew Luck | QB | 1.3641 | 300.74 | 45 | 49.57 | 4.57 |
Tom Brady | QB | 1.3568 | 238.26 | 46 | 73.93 | 27.93 |
Golden Tate | WR | 1.3475 | 184.57 | 47 | 41.50 | -5.50 |
Kelvin Benjamin | WR | 1.2962 | 183.11 | 48 | 41.42 | -6.58 |
Thomas Rawls | RB | 1.2390 | 182.78 | 49 | 39.05 | -9.95 |
Larry Fitzgerald | WR | 1.1789 | 179.76 | 50 | 53.37 | 3.37 |
Latavius Murray | RB | 1.1723 | 180.63 | 51 | 45.88 | -5.12 |
Coby Fleener | TE | 1.1000 | 150.96 | 52 | 64.83 | 12.83 |
Drew Brees | QB | 1.0777 | 292.69 | 53 | 60.50 | 7.50 |
Emmanuel Sanders | WR | 1.0674 | 176.58 | 54 | 65.72 | 11.72 |
Travis Kelce | TE | 1.0310 | 149.62 | 55 | 60.67 | 5.67 |
Jordan Matthews | WR | 0.9758 | 173.97 | 56 | 61.33 | 5.33 |
Carlos Hyde | RB | 0.9640 | 173.92 | 57 | 40.75 | -16.25 |
Michael Floyd | WR | 0.8973 | 171.73 | 58 | 57.42 | -0.58 |
Jeremy Langford | RB | 0.8608 | 170.59 | 59 | 65.18 | 6.18 |
Donte Moncrief | WR | 0.8604 | 170.68 | 60 | 52.58 | -7.42 |
DeMarco Murray | RB | 0.7909 | 168.34 | 61 | 50.10 | -10.90 |
Blake Bortles | QB | 0.7161 | 282.51 | 62 | 86.45 | 24.45 |
Ben Roethlisberger | QB | 0.6739 | 281.33 | 63 | 65.57 | 2.57 |
Giovani Bernard | RB | 0.6123 | 162.59 | 64 | 74.08 | 10.08 |
Ryan Mathews | RB | 0.6037 | 162.31 | 65 | 64.60 | -0.40 |
Gary Barnidge | TE | 0.5906 | 141.03 | 66 | 94.03 | 28.03 |
Allen Hurns | WR | 0.5857 | 162.85 | 67 | 71.22 | 4.22 |
Danny Woodhead | RB | 0.5824 | 161.62 | 68 | 71.88 | 3.88 |
DeSean Jackson | WR | 0.5646 | 162.25 | 69 | 87.63 | 18.63 |
Jonathan Stewart | RB | 0.5629 | 160.99 | 70 | 64.50 | -5.50 |
Jeremy Hill | RB | 0.5200 | 159.61 | 71 | 63.63 | -7.37 |
Michael Crabtree | WR | 0.4858 | 160.00 | 72 | 83.17 | 11.17 |
John Brown | WR | 0.4741 | 159.67 | 73 | 69.23 | -3.77 |
Matt Jones | RB | 0.4707 | 158.02 | 74 | 67.32 | -6.68 |
Carson Palmer | QB | 0.4586 | 275.27 | 75 | 75.20 | 0.20 |
DeVante Parker | WR | 0.4511 | 159.01 | 76 | 72.05 | -3.95 |
Antonio Gates | TE | 0.4365 | 138.03 | 77 | 104.40 | 27.40 |
Duke Johnson | RB | 0.4261 | 156.59 | 78 | 70.30 | -7.70 |
Tyrod Taylor | QB | 0.4255 | 274.34 | 79 | 130.50 | 51.50 |
Tyler Lockett | WR | 0.4101 | 157.84 | 80 | 77.88 | -2.12 |
Eli Manning | QB | 0.2872 | 270.45 | 81 | 87.32 | 6.32 |
Marvin Jones | WR | 0.2634 | 153.66 | 82 | 81.53 | -0.47 |
Zach Ertz | TE | 0.2424 | 134.24 | 83 | 87.38 | 4.38 |
Melvin Gordon | RB | 0.2180 | 149.88 | 84 | 78.15 | -5.85 |
Philip Rivers | QB | 0.2049 | 268.13 | 85 | 99.50 | 14.50 |
Ameer Abdullah | RB | 0.1709 | 148.36 | 86 | 90.52 | 4.52 |
Tyler Eifert | TE | 0.1671 | 132.77 | 87 | 86.35 | -0.65 |
Frank Gore | RB | 0.1249 | 146.88 | 88 | 79.42 | -8.58 |
Matthew Stafford | QB | 0.1192 | 265.72 | 89 | 139.95 | 50.95 |
T.J. Yeldon | RB | 0.1163 | 146.60 | 90 | 99.62 | 9.62 |
Stefon Diggs | WR | 0.0987 | 148.96 | 91 | 108.07 | 17.07 |
Kirk Cousins | QB | 0.0850 | 264.76 | 92 | 119.97 | 27.97 |
Torrey Smith | WR | 0.0824 | 148.50 | 93 | 111.57 | 18.57 |
Rashad Jennings | RB | 0.0306 | 143.84 | 94 | 91.70 | -2.30 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | QB | 0.0000 | 262.37 | 95 | 173.82 | 78.82 |
Arian Foster | RB | 0.0000 | 142.86 | 96 | 69.65 | -26.35 |
Jason Witten | TE | 0.0000 | 129.52 | 97 | 131.62 | 34.62 |
Willie Snead | WR | 0.0000 | 146.15 | 98 | 107.77 | 9.77 |
Andy Dalton | QB | -0.0471 | 261.04 | 99 | 141.85 | 42.85 |
Julius Thomas | TE | -0.1122 | 127.33 | 100 | 92.35 | -7.65 |
Jameis Winston | QB | -0.2168 | 256.27 | 101 | 139.12 | 38.12 |
Jimmy Graham | TE | -0.2272 | 125.09 | 102 | 117.17 | 15.17 |
Derek Carr | QB | -0.2279 | 255.96 | 103 | 109.92 | 6.92 |
Tony Romo | QB | -0.3586 | 252.28 | 104 | 125.48 | 21.48 |
Matt Ryan | QB | -0.3792 | 251.70 | 105 | 157.33 | 52.33 |
Ryan Tannehill | QB | -0.5408 | 247.15 | 106 | 169.63 | 63.63 |
Here’s quick explanation of some of the columns.
FPTS=fantasy points, FVARz=fantasy value above replacement based on z-score, Rank=My rank, ADP=average draft position, ADPD=difference between ADP and my rank
You’re going to have to take this list with a grain a salt. I think that’s the right phrase. This list is completely numbers driven. There is no intelligence beyond the stats. According to the results, Cam Newton is a first rounder. While that might statistically be true, I can’t see myself taking him over Adrian Peterson. It’s just not logical. However, these rankings should help give you an idea of where all the pieces fit in a “perfect” world.
I’d like to discuss the last column “ADPD” in the table above. This value represents the difference between where I have a player ranked and his current average draft position. This is where we can find bargains on draft. It will also help us pinpoint players that are being drafted too early. You should likely avoid most of these players.
Let’s see what bargains we can find.
Tom Brady has an ADP of 74.4, but I have him ranked 19. He’s clearly not a second rounder. So here’s how I’d approach this. Pick 74 is the sixth round in a 12-team league. If Brady is your guy, then I’d draft him in the fifth round and know you got a bargain.
Greg Olsen is currently being selected with the 44th pick. My ranks put him at 21. Take him in the 30’s and be happy.
Danny Woodhead. ADP is 58. His rank is 36.
By now you should see where I’m going with this. If not, just make sure you are aware of every players’ average draft position. This will keep you from drafting a guy in the fourth round when you can wait until the eighth. As for ADP data, do not use your sites built in rankings. Those values are hot garbage. Your best source is the results of the thousands of completed online drafts. This is where I get my data.
I have attached my full set of projections at the bottom of this post. In addition to all of the projections, there is a worksheet labeled “Draft” which ranks all of the players and includes ADP details for both standard and PPR formats. The first column (drafted) can be used to check off drafted players. Entering a “1” (no quotes) will highlight that row green for a player you have drafted on your team. If you enter any other value, the row will turn red, indicating a player that is no longer available.
By the way, the answer to Freeman versus Robinson is (you tell me in the comments section). Any why.
Download Projections here!
Thanks malamoney!
I’m in a ppr 8 man league I have the first pick I’m going brown. Thinking of a few different scenarios can you tell me which one you like best?
1. Brown-bell-Miller
2. Brown marshal Allen
3. Brown bell Marshall
4. Brown bell Allen
Or if freeman is available do I go him and someone else. It’s a weird league there will be 4 qb’ maybe 5 by the time I go @ 16. I’m waiting way late on qbs I thinks.
Thanks!
@Chris: I think you have to figure an RB in there. I like Brown, Bell and Allen. Just make sure you don’t jump the gun on any players. Meaning don’t draft someone too early…
thanks! If bell is gone just go the next best back then I’m thinking either Miller or freeman.?
@Chris: Probably. But I’d have to weigh which WR was available as compared to the top RB that was there. You can always tweet me and I can try and help…
Just to be clear, can you state what scoring system you used for the fantasy point projections for QB, RB and WR/TE? Thanks and good stuff.
@papafrog:
QB: TD=4, 25 yards passing=1, 10 yards rushing=1, Int=-1
RB: TD=6, 10 yards rushing=1
WR: TD=6, 10 yards receiving=1
Fractional scoring was used. All of the normal scoring was used…
@malamoney: Thanks!
Thanks for all your posts just in time for my draft. I’m the guy from the other day asking about a 12 team keeper league where we can keep 3 players for 3 years. You advised I keep:
Freeman $1
Antonio $61
Sammy Watkins for $7
I was wondering how close you’d be to swapping Sammy at $7 for Lamar at $33 instead. I’m torn between which one to keep. I’ll likely just draft which ever I don’t keep (if I keep Sammy, draft Lamar, if I keep Lamar, draft Sammy).
And I’d rather have Allen Robinson due to 1) devanta wasn’t even supposed to be the starter last year, rb’s injury risk > Allen Robinson and I’m down on the Falcons as a team this year. I think the jags will keep airing it out just like last year.
@Psh: This is an auction, right? If so, then you have to keep Watkins at $7. If got Watkins at about $30. So getting him at $7 is a $23 savings. I’ve got Lamar at $44. So getting him at 33 is only an $11 savings.
If it’s not auction, then even if you get him for $44, then you’ve made out. You will have paid $51 for both Watkins and Miller. If you keep Miller at $33, then you’d have to get Watkins for less than $18. I’m not sure you will. I’m guessing he goes for between $25 and $30…
@malamoney: you’ve got some great points, basically I wish we were allowed 4 keepers but I guess one has to go. I do think my specifi league hates Sammy but you’re right he’ll prob go for around $30. I do bet Lamar miller might go for $50+ but no guarantees. Gronk went for $70+ last year ($200 budget).
So if I keep watkins who should be my main priority?
1) Gronk
2) aj green /dez Bryant/ alshon Jeffery
3) Adrian Peterson
@Psh: Even if you pay $50 for Lamar you will be getting Watkins and Lamar for $57. If you keep Lamar you will have to pay less than $24 to break even. His average price is $30. And here’s the thing. I want no part of Watkins at $30. None. But at $15 or less, I’m all over him. At $7, that a steal in auction leagues…
@Psh: In auction leagues I refuse to pay Gronk’s price tag. I hate Dez. I’d go AP or whatever top RB is available.
Here’s something to keep in mind. Player’s average prices become skewed in league where there are keepers. The reason is because someone is able to keep a guy that should cost let’s say $40 for $10. Now that team has an extra $30 to throw around and over pay for someone else. So if you have extra dollars, do not be afraid to over pay for the right player. Otherwise you will miss out because you league mates will…
Charles isn’t even going to play until who knows when. Once I saw his name that high I stopped reading. Getting brown obj and julio is nice but wrs are so deep this year im taking rbs in the 1st round. Grab Elliot Johnson Gurley and just draft baldwin moncrief cooks later on. The difference between those guys are a lot closer than ending up with some garbage like j.stew or matt jones
@Kutty: Are you in a PPR league? There is a big difference between Brown and Jones and the receivers you mentioned. Especially in PPR. In standard leagues I have no issue with your strategy, but I’m still taking Brown with the first pick…
Ok ill concede on brown but that’s about it. Charles 3rd is a joke and k.allen and j.nelson are way too high for me. Allen cant stay on the field and nelson is old and clearly on the downside of his career.
I’m in a 12 team, .5 pp, where we start 1 qb, 2 rb, 2 Wr , no flex. Dynasty . Keep guys for up to 3 years . It’s my last year keeping lacy. I do have the rights to trade him next season.
Would you trade lacy for freeman ?
Also, in a different league – same format, but redraft –
would you trade c. Michael for ware ? I have Charles as my rb1
Thanks !
@Old Dirty: Yes I would make that trade. Yes, I would trade Michael to Ware considering you own Charles…
Hey i have a quick question, in your spreadsheet on “avg draft values” and “points per draft dollar” since i play in a keeper league, i calculated the “keeper inflation” or the multiplication factor used to caclucualte what their actual fair value is in my specific league. For instance the value is 1.3.
so Anotonio brown, per your research, is a $62 player, but in my league since “value is being kept”, he’s really (62x 1.3 or actually a $80 player in my league)
its a 12 team league and everyone is allowed 3 keeprs, should I just put a formula in that spreadsheet increasing all players values by multiplication factor or 1.3 for my draft tonight? i’m not the best at math or microsoft excel but will this mess up the “points per draft dollar” metric or since all players are being increased by the 1.3 rate shouldn’t all relative values in the points per draft dollar stay the same ( i mean the numbers will change but the overall message is still the same, guy xyz is more valuable due to their perceived cost)
sorry all that is confusing I just wanted someone elses opinion.
FWIW. this is by far one of the most useful tools i’ve seen in draft preps. Thanks again.
@PNW: Which spreadsheet are you talking about. The one with PPD is not the one associated with this post. Just want to make sure we are on the same page…
@malamoney: oh yea sorry it’s the one from your previous post, i plan on taking both and forming a hybrid spreadsheet as both contain really good data.
drafts tomorrow night not tonight that was a typo. so yea the PPD post was what i am referring to
@PNW: If you send me your email address I can email you an updated version of the PPD spreadsheet with all values multiplied by 1.3
If you dont’ want to post your email here, you can just email me at [email protected]
so I am in a standard 10 team league with the same pts that you list – we also have bonus pts for passers above 300, runners/recievers above 100. So just so I am clear – the far right in the draft tab is the standard pts. I filter on your “rank” column to get your rankings, then use the adp tab to see where that person is drafted compared to your ranking. if the difference column shows positive then I am getting a bargain? correct? just be sure I am getting a 10 picks or few picks ahead of his ADP?
@Blake: You are correct. If you sort by “rank” this will sort the players how I have them ranked in standard leagues. The “adp” column shows their ADP in standard leagues. The “diff” column shows the difference between my rank and ADP.
For example, if you draft Antonio Brown with the first pick you are getting him at “even money”. But if you got him with the 5th pick you are getting a 4 pick bargain. You can overwrite the value in the “adp” column with the pick you would be using to select a player to see what your bargain would be…
also, are you going to update the rankings based on final cuts today? ie Justin forsett? my draft is tomorrow.; Sure would love to use this real time
@Blake: I was not planning on it. If you want to do so it’s pretty easy to delete rows. Or you don’t even have to delete them. Just put an “x” in the first column for any players that have been cut…
Hey, Malamoney! Cobb or Cooper this year in a full point ppr league? Thanks and enjoy the weekend!
@Jerry: Cooper by a little bit…
Ok, thanks! How about T.Y. or Cooper?
@Jerry: Cooper. Unless something has happened in the last few days, my answer will be the same as the spreadsheet…
so whats the deal with Charles? not going to be back for a few weeks? how far should he slide down boards?
@Blake: I’d probably drop him down right ahead of Forte…
@malamoney:
when I do that in your Draft tab – do I put the new rank in and will autopopulate the rest?
@Blake: No, it’s not dynamic like that.
If you send me your email address or email me at [email protected] I will send you a updated version moving Charles down.
@malamoney:
sent you an email – thx!
@Blake: Projections sent.
I am including my explanation here for the benefit of other readers.
Here’s the thing. Increasing a passing TD to 6 points really isn’t going to change the overall rankings that much. The reason is because everyone is still going to a QB. Think about it like this. Let’s say QBs scored around 400 points each. Everyone will have a QB so they are all going to get those point. Now let’s say we upped QB points and they are were going to get around 1000 points. But since everyone will still have a QB and points increased for all QBs then everyone’s total team points increases nearly equally. So why QBs suddenly score more points, their relative value to the team remains relatively equal because every team in your league is getting that same increase.
What would make a difference here is if you had a QB or two that was projected to get a lot more passing TDs than the rest of the QBs. Then this particular QB or two would see a nice bump in value and rankings.
I’m in a td only league where we don’t sit/start players . We have 2 qbs, 4 rbs, 4 wrs, & 1 Te. ToTal points at the end of the year wins . 8 toTal teams. 4 points for throwing a td, 6 points for rush/catch
Do you know anywhere that puts out a td only ranking ?
Who would your top 8 be?
I was thinking
Brown
Odb
Gurley
Johnson
Miller
Ap
Jones
Newton
Thanks
@Old Dirty: Send me an email at [email protected] and I will generate TD-only rankings for you…
I crunched numbers for half-PPR league using the data sheet and on a per-game basis for my funky league that treats W/T the same.
Came up with Zach Miller is number 9 overall (Gronk is 29)??
I think his stats projection is either high overall, or it’s meant for >8 games.
Enjoy the z-score lesson and now trying to find a way to add this into my auction draft strategy
@BeckhamsTears: You must be doing something wrong because for half-PPR I have Zach Miller as the 16th TE and he doesn’t even rank overall…
@malamoney: on a points-per-game basis, he’s #1
Z Miller – 119 points, 8 games, 14.9 ppg
Gronk – 205 points, 16 games, 12.9 ppg
Olsen – 174 points, 16 games, 10.8 ppg
J Reed – 170 points, 16 games, 10.6 ppg
I think he plays more than 8 games, but no way his production doubles.
@BeckhamsTears: Gotcha, but that is still technically wrong. Remember, if you draft Miller, you still have to draft another TE for those other 8 or so games…