Is There a Draft In Here?

1. Thanks malamoney!
   I’m in a ppr 8 man league I have the first pick I’m going brown. Thinking of a few different scenarios can you tell me which one you like best?
   1. Brown-bell-Miller
   2. Brown marshal Allen
   3. Brown bell Marshall
   4. Brown bell Allen
   Or if freeman is available do I go him and someone else. It’s a weird league there will be 4 qb’ maybe 5 by the time I go @ 16. I’m waiting way late on qbs I thinks.
   Thanks!

   • @Chris: I think you have to figure an RB in there. I like Brown, Bell and Allen. Just make sure you don’t jump the gun on any players. Meaning don’t draft someone too early…

     • thanks! If bell is gone just go the next best back then I’m thinking either Miller or freeman.?

       • @Chris: Probably. But I’d have to weigh which WR was available as compared to the top RB that was there. You can always tweet me and I can try and help…

2. Just to be clear, can you state what scoring system you used for the fantasy point projections for QB, RB and WR/TE? Thanks and good stuff.

   • @papafrog:

     QB: TD=4, 25 yards passing=1, 10 yards rushing=1, Int=-1
     RB: TD=6, 10 yards rushing=1
     WR: TD=6, 10 yards receiving=1

     Fractional scoring was used. All of the normal scoring was used…

     • @malamoney: Thanks!

3. Thanks for all your posts just in time for my draft. I’m the guy from the other day asking about a 12 team keeper league where we can keep 3 players for 3 years. You advised I keep:
   Freeman $1
   Antonio $61
   Sammy Watkins for $7

   I was wondering how close you’d be to swapping Sammy at $7 for Lamar at $33 instead. I’m torn between which one to keep. I’ll likely just draft which ever I don’t keep (if I keep Sammy, draft Lamar, if I keep Lamar, draft Sammy).

   And I’d rather have Allen Robinson due to 1) devanta wasn’t even supposed to be the starter last year, rb’s injury risk > Allen Robinson and I’m down on the Falcons as a team this year. I think the jags will keep airing it out just like last year.

   • @Psh: This is an auction, right? If so, then you have to keep Watkins at $7. If got Watkins at about $30. So getting him at $7 is a $23 savings. I’ve got Lamar at $44. So getting him at 33 is only an $11 savings.

     If it’s not auction, then even if you get him for $44, then you’ve made out. You will have paid $51 for both Watkins and Miller. If you keep Miller at $33, then you’d have to get Watkins for less than $18. I’m not sure you will. I’m guessing he goes for between $25 and $30…

     • @malamoney: you’ve got some great points, basically I wish we were allowed 4 keepers but I guess one has to go. I do think my specifi league hates Sammy but you’re right he’ll prob go for around $30. I do bet Lamar miller might go for $50+ but no guarantees. Gronk went for $70+ last year ($200 budget).

       So if I keep watkins who should be my main priority?
       1) Gronk
       2) aj green /dez Bryant/ alshon Jeffery
       3) Adrian Peterson

       • @Psh: Even if you pay $50 for Lamar you will be getting Watkins and Lamar for $57. If you keep Lamar you will have to pay less than $24 to break even. His average price is $30. And here’s the thing. I want no part of Watkins at $30. None. But at $15 or less, I’m all over him. At $7, that a steal in auction leagues…

       • @Psh: In auction leagues I refuse to pay Gronk’s price tag. I hate Dez. I’d go AP or whatever top RB is available.

         Here’s something to keep in mind. Player’s average prices become skewed in league where there are keepers. The reason is because someone is able to keep a guy that should cost let’s say $40 for $10. Now that team has an extra $30 to throw around and over pay for someone else. So if you have extra dollars, do not be afraid to over pay for the right player. Otherwise you will miss out because you league mates will…

4. Charles isn’t even going to play until who knows when. Once I saw his name that high I stopped reading. Getting brown obj and julio is nice but wrs are so deep this year im taking rbs in the 1st round. Grab Elliot Johnson Gurley and just draft baldwin moncrief cooks later on. The difference between those guys are a lot closer than ending up with some garbage like j.stew or matt jones

   • @Kutty: Are you in a PPR league? There is a big difference between Brown and Jones and the receivers you mentioned. Especially in PPR. In standard leagues I have no issue with your strategy, but I’m still taking Brown with the first pick…

     • Ok ill concede on brown but that’s about it. Charles 3rd is a joke and k.allen and j.nelson are way too high for me. Allen cant stay on the field and nelson is old and clearly on the downside of his career.

5. I’m in a 12 team, .5 pp, where we start 1 qb, 2 rb, 2 Wr , no flex. Dynasty . Keep guys for up to 3 years . It’s my last year keeping lacy. I do have the rights to trade him next season.

   Would you trade lacy for freeman ?

   Also, in a different league – same format, but redraft –
   would you trade c. Michael for ware ? I have Charles as my rb1

   Thanks !

   • @Old Dirty: Yes I would make that trade. Yes, I would trade Michael to Ware considering you own Charles…

6. Hey i have a quick question, in your spreadsheet on “avg draft values” and “points per draft dollar” since i play in a keeper league, i calculated the “keeper inflation” or the multiplication factor used to caclucualte what their actual fair value is in my specific league. For instance the value is 1.3.

   so Anotonio brown, per your research, is a $62 player, but in my league since “value is being kept”, he’s really (62x 1.3 or actually a $80 player in my league)

   its a 12 team league and everyone is allowed 3 keeprs, should I just put a formula in that spreadsheet increasing all players values by multiplication factor or 1.3 for my draft tonight? i’m not the best at math or microsoft excel but will this mess up the “points per draft dollar” metric or since all players are being increased by the 1.3 rate shouldn’t all relative values in the points per draft dollar stay the same ( i mean the numbers will change but the overall message is still the same, guy xyz is more valuable due to their perceived cost)

   sorry all that is confusing I just wanted someone elses opinion.

   FWIW. this is by far one of the most useful tools i’ve seen in draft preps. Thanks again.

   • @PNW: Which spreadsheet are you talking about. The one with PPD is not the one associated with this post. Just want to make sure we are on the same page…

     • @malamoney: oh yea sorry it’s the one from your previous post, i plan on taking both and forming a hybrid spreadsheet as both contain really good data.

       drafts tomorrow night not tonight that was a typo. so yea the PPD post was what i am referring to

       • @PNW: If you send me your email address I can email you an updated version of the PPD spreadsheet with all values multiplied by 1.3

         If you dont’ want to post your email here, you can just email me at [email protected]

7. so I am in a standard 10 team league with the same pts that you list – we also have bonus pts for passers above 300, runners/recievers above 100. So just so I am clear – the far right in the draft tab is the standard pts. I filter on your “rank” column to get your rankings, then use the adp tab to see where that person is drafted compared to your ranking. if the difference column shows positive then I am getting a bargain? correct? just be sure I am getting a 10 picks or few picks ahead of his ADP?

   • @Blake: You are correct. If you sort by “rank” this will sort the players how I have them ranked in standard leagues. The “adp” column shows their ADP in standard leagues. The “diff” column shows the difference between my rank and ADP.

     For example, if you draft Antonio Brown with the first pick you are getting him at “even money”. But if you got him with the 5th pick you are getting a 4 pick bargain. You can overwrite the value in the “adp” column with the pick you would be using to select a player to see what your bargain would be…

8. also, are you going to update the rankings based on final cuts today? ie Justin forsett? my draft is tomorrow.; Sure would love to use this real time

   • @Blake: I was not planning on it. If you want to do so it’s pretty easy to delete rows. Or you don’t even have to delete them. Just put an “x” in the first column for any players that have been cut…

9. Hey, Malamoney! Cobb or Cooper this year in a full point ppr league? Thanks and enjoy the weekend!

   • @Jerry: Cooper by a little bit…

10. Ok, thanks! How about T.Y. or Cooper?

    • @Jerry: Cooper. Unless something has happened in the last few days, my answer will be the same as the spreadsheet…

11. so whats the deal with Charles? not going to be back for a few weeks? how far should he slide down boards?

    • @Blake: I’d probably drop him down right ahead of Forte…

      • @malamoney:

        when I do that in your Draft tab – do I put the new rank in and will autopopulate the rest?

        • @Blake: No, it’s not dynamic like that.

          If you send me your email address or email me at [email protected] I will send you a updated version moving Charles down.

          • @malamoney:

            sent you an email – thx!

            • @Blake: Projections sent.

              I am including my explanation here for the benefit of other readers.

              Here’s the thing. Increasing a passing TD to 6 points really isn’t going to change the overall rankings that much. The reason is because everyone is still going to a QB. Think about it like this. Let’s say QBs scored around 400 points each. Everyone will have a QB so they are all going to get those point. Now let’s say we upped QB points and they are were going to get around 1000 points. But since everyone will still have a QB and points increased for all QBs then everyone’s total team points increases nearly equally. So why QBs suddenly score more points, their relative value to the team remains relatively equal because every team in your league is getting that same increase.

              What would make a difference here is if you had a QB or two that was projected to get a lot more passing TDs than the rest of the QBs. Then this particular QB or two would see a nice bump in value and rankings.

12. I’m in a td only league where we don’t sit/start players . We have 2 qbs, 4 rbs, 4 wrs, & 1 Te. ToTal points at the end of the year wins . 8 toTal teams. 4 points for throwing a td, 6 points for rush/catch

    Do you know anywhere that puts out a td only ranking ?

    Who would your top 8 be?
    I was thinking
    Brown
    Odb
    Gurley
    Johnson
    Miller
    Ap
    Jones
    Newton

    Thanks

    • @Old Dirty: Send me an email at [email protected] and I will generate TD-only rankings for you…

13. I crunched numbers for half-PPR league using the data sheet and on a per-game basis for my funky league that treats W/T the same.
    Came up with Zach Miller is number 9 overall (Gronk is 29)??
    I think his stats projection is either high overall, or it’s meant for >8 games.

    Enjoy the z-score lesson and now trying to find a way to add this into my auction draft strategy

    • @BeckhamsTears: You must be doing something wrong because for half-PPR I have Zach Miller as the 16th TE and he doesn’t even rank overall…

      • @malamoney: on a points-per-game basis, he’s #1

        Z Miller – 119 points, 8 games, 14.9 ppg
        Gronk – 205 points, 16 games, 12.9 ppg
        Olsen – 174 points, 16 games, 10.8 ppg
        J Reed – 170 points, 16 games, 10.6 ppg

        I think he plays more than 8 games, but no way his production doubles.

        • @BeckhamsTears: Gotcha, but that is still technically wrong. Remember, if you draft Miller, you still have to draft another TE for those other 8 or so games…

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