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It’s a bird. It’s a plane. It’s malamoney’s fantasy football rankings. The best thing about rankings and projections is that no one ever calls you out for having absolutely sh!tty projections. It’s not until months later when the season is over that projections can really be evaluated for efficiency, and by that time who really give a flying [fill in the blank]. Not to mention, who’s actually going to take the time to do so.

Here is my process for generating projections. Step one. Develop a random number generator. Step two. Generate hundreds of random numbers. Step three. Publish projections. Okay, so that’s not exactly how I get from point A to point B. Truth be told, I wouldn’t be surprised if there were some sources out there that did.

First I calculate my own set of player projections. Next I download between five and ten other sets of projections. Finally I take all of the projections, including my own, and run them through a program I’ve written that averages all of the projections together. I considered dropping the high and the low scores, but that just seemed a little counterintuitive. Besides, it’s not like I’m judging figure skating over here. The biggest pain in the ass is dealing with all the various spellings of the same name. Odell Beckham Jr. versus just Odell Beckham. Steve Smith Sr. versus just Steve Smith. T.Y. Hilton (with the dots) versus Ty Hilton. And how about Le’Veon Bell (with the apostrophe) versus LeVeon Bell. When the dust finally settles and I’ve lined up all the edges, I have my projections.

If you are interested in my positional rankings based on projected points, please take a look at my last post, The Adventure of Bidding. If you are just too damn lazy to click a link, I will summarize…

Quarterback

Player FPTS PPG
Cam Newton 346.23 21.63
Russell Wilson 329.03 20.56
Aaron Rodgers 318.91 19.93
Andrew Luck 300.74 18.79
Drew Brees 292.68 18.29
Tom Brady 238.26 19.85
Blake Bortles 282.51 17.65
Ben Roethlisberger 281.32 17.58
Carson Palmer 275.26 17.20
Tyrod Taylor 274.33 17.14
Eli Manning 270.44 16.90
Philip Rivers 268.13 16.75
Matthew Stafford 265.72 16.60
Kirk Cousins 264.75 16.54
Ryan Fitzpatrick 262.36 16.39
Andy Dalton 261.04 16.31
Jameis Winston 256.26 16.01
Derek Carr 255.95 15.99
Tony Romo 252.28 15.76
Matt Ryan 251.69 15.73
Ryan Tannehill 247.15 15.44

I’ve moved Tom Brady into the six hole. His projected points are based on 12 games, but his points per game is the fourth best. However, since you are forced to draft another quarterback for the first four weeks, I ranked him after Andrew Luck and Drew Brees.

Running Back

Player FPTS PPR FPTS Half FPTS STD
David Johnson 277.42 250.24 223.06
Todd Gurley 261.93 243.99 226.04
Jamaal Charles 252.64 229.65 206.66
Le’Veon Bell 252.07 225.77 199.48
Devonta Freeman 251.66 221.15 190.65
Lamar Miller 245.38 223.00 200.63
Adrian Peterson 244.42 228.80 213.18
Mark Ingram 239.14 213.18 187.23
Ezekiel Elliott 231.71 213.13 194.56
LeSean McCoy 227.36 207.20 187.03
Matt Forte 209.28 187.28 165.29
Eddie Lacy 209.24 193.30 177.36
Doug Martin 208.35 192.51 176.66
C.J. Anderson 205.23 187.71 170.19
Latavius Murray 199.04 180.63 162.21
Danny Woodhead 196.59 161.62 126.65
Thomas Rawls 193.67 182.78 171.88
Carlos Hyde 190.82 173.92 157.02
Jeremy Langford 188.45 170.59 152.74
Giovani Bernard 186.38 162.59 138.79
Duke Johnson 186.23 156.59 126.94
DeMarco Murray 185.24 168.34 151.44
Ryan Mathews 178.36 162.31 146.26
Matt Jones 172.88 158.02 143.17
Jonathan Stewart 171.25 160.99 150.73
Jeremy Hill 168.99 159.61 150.23
Melvin Gordon 168.52 149.88 131.25
T.J. Yeldon 165.74 146.60 127.46
Ameer Abdullah 165.51 148.36 131.21
Theo Riddick 164.13 131.91 99.69
Charles Sims 162.00 138.69 115.37
Frank Gore 161.08 146.88 132.68
Arian Foster 160.24 142.86 125.48
Rashad Jennings 158.48 143.84 129.21
Dion Lewis 152.63 127.63 102.63
Justin Forsett 147.03 131.42 115.80
Shane Vereen 146.54 120.96 95.37
Isaiah Crowell 136.10 126.51 116.91
LeGarrette Blount 135.24 129.02 122.81
Chris Ivory 131.34 120.99 110.65

LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte and Eddie Lacy all interest me this year if I can get them in the right round. These are all players that were first rounders a year ago. Ok, maybe two.


Wide Receiver

Player FPTS PPR FPTS Half FPTS STD
Antonio Brown 361.86 298.61 235.37
Julio Jones 334.61 274.49 214.36
Odell Beckham Jr. 318.86 268.95 219.04
DeAndre Hopkins 301.31 250.60 199.89
Keenan Allen 265.76 212.89 160.03
A.J. Green 264.66 221.41 178.15
Brandon Marshall 264.57 219.41 174.25
Jordy Nelson 263.34 220.27 177.20
Allen Robinson 262.17 221.22 180.27
Dez Bryant 261.76 220.03 178.31
Alshon Jeffery 258.68 215.73 172.79
Brandin Cooks 252.32 209.02 165.72
Jarvis Landry 246.82 196.89 146.96
Demaryius Thomas 246.32 202.15 157.99
Mike Evans 245.01 205.41 165.81
Sammy Watkins 244.31 206.49 168.68
Amari Cooper 244.24 202.50 160.76
T.Y. Hilton 240.55 202.04 163.52
Randall Cobb 235.08 193.97 152.87
Julian Edelman 234.24 188.14 142.04
Golden Tate 230.07 184.57 139.07
Jeremy Maclin 228.22 187.39 146.56
Eric Decker 227.02 187.89 148.76
Doug Baldwin 222.53 185.53 148.54
Larry Fitzgerald 222.01 179.76 137.52
Kelvin Benjamin 218.34 183.11 147.88
Jordan Matthews 213.65 173.97 134.28
Emmanuel Sanders 213.55 176.58 139.61
Donte Moncrief 207.18 170.68 134.17
Michael Floyd 203.05 171.73 140.42
Michael Crabtree 197.61 160.00 122.39
Allen Hurns 193.85 162.85 131.85
DeSean Jackson 191.71 162.25 132.78
John Brown 190.72 159.67 128.61
DeVante Parker 189.26 159.01 128.76
Tyler Lockett 189.11 157.84 126.58
Marvin Jones 187.53 153.66 119.79
Stefon Diggs 180.60 148.96 117.33
Willie Snead 179.05 146.15 113.24
Torrey Smith 176.11 148.50 120.88

I think owning one of Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr. or DeAndre Hopkins is a must. But that’s just me.

Tight End

Player FPTS PPR FPTS Half FPTS STD
Rob Gronkowski 244.90 204.87 164.85
Jordan Reed 212.21 169.87 127.53
Greg Olsen 212.09 174.24 136.39
Delanie Walker 195.06 157.88 120.69
Coby Fleener 186.61 150.96 115.32
Travis Kelce 185.69 149.62 113.55
Gary Barnidge 171.92 141.03 110.15
Antonio Gates 169.41 138.03 106.64
Zach Ertz 167.55 134.24 100.93
Jason Witten 164.29 129.52 94.75
Tyler Eifert 161.10 132.77 104.44
Julius Thomas 156.47 127.33 98.18
Jimmy Graham 153.42 125.09 96.75
Martellus Bennett 148.91 120.94 92.96
Dwayne Allen 146.87 119.84 92.81
Zach Miller 144.51 119.56 94.60
Charles Clay 144.15 115.50 86.85
Eric Ebron 135.64 109.99 84.34
Ladarius Green 125.97 102.64 79.31
Kyle Rudolph 124.08 100.06 76.03
Jordan Cameron 116.12 94.09 72.07

In order to get Rob Gronkowski you are likely going to have to use your first round pick. I’m just not sure I could do that. If he’s there in the second round I’d likely grab him, but I might try and grab another top RB or WR and wait a round or so for Jordan Reed or Greg Olsen. Ideally I’d like to have one of those three, but since when have you even been able to draft your ideal team?

Ok, now that we have positional rankings, how do I know whether I should take Devonta Freeman or Allen Robinson? How do I compare players across positions?

The first step is get yourself a set of reliable projections. Check! In fantasy football there is only one category that counts. Points. The key to determining position-adjusted rankings is trying to figure out how much more valuable each player is than the replacement level player at his primary position. The replacement level player is the guy that can be typically found on the waiver wire. Or in leagues with a reasonable bench, the replacement player would be the player on your bench that you want rostered, but almost never put in your lineup. You always want to make sure you are starting a player better than this player.

My calculations assume the following starting lineup: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, Flex

In a 12-team league I figure here’s how many players at each position I believe are ahead of the replacement player.

QB (12), RB (32), WR (40), TE (12)

The nth+1 player at each position is the replacement player. Once we have our list of players at each position completed we can calculate each player’s z-scores

Z-SCORE = (Player’s Projected Points – Average Projected Points For All Players At That Position In Our Pool) / Standard Deviation For That Data Set

The next step is to determine each player’s fantasy value over replacement. We do this by taking the replacement player and subtracting his z-score value from everyone else at his position. The result is fantasy value over replacement. Once we’ve done this for each position, we can then start to compare players across positions.

Based on the above criteria, here are my position-adjusted rankings for PPR leagues.

Player POS FVARz FPTS PPR Rank ADP ADPD
Antonio Brown WR 5.3475 298.61 1 1.08 0.08
Julio Jones WR 4.5013 274.49 2 2.78 0.78
Odell Beckham Jr. WR 4.3072 268.95 3 2.72 -0.28
Rob Gronkowski TE 3.8653 204.87 4 10.98 6.98
DeAndre Hopkins WR 3.6637 250.60 5 6.12 1.12
David Johnson RB 3.3329 250.24 6 5.87 -0.13
Todd Gurley RB 3.1388 243.99 7 5.15 -1.85
Cam Newton QB 2.9810 346.23 8 31.10 23.10
Jamaal Charles RB 2.6939 229.65 9 18.58 9.58
Adrian Peterson RB 2.6673 228.80 10 8.22 -1.78
A.J. Green WR 2.6396 221.41 11 8.53 -2.47
Allen Robinson WR 2.6330 221.22 12 12.57 0.57
Jordy Nelson WR 2.5998 220.27 13 18.70 5.70
Dez Bryant WR 2.5915 220.03 14 10.17 -3.83
Le’Veon Bell RB 2.5734 225.77 15 13.13 -1.87
Brandon Marshall WR 2.5697 219.41 16 17.63 1.63
Lamar Miller RB 2.4875 223.00 17 12.48 -4.52
Alshon Jeffery WR 2.4406 215.73 18 20.80 2.80
Devonta Freeman RB 2.4301 221.15 19 16.75 -2.25
Russell Wilson QB 2.3697 329.03 20 50.87 30.87
Keenan Allen WR 2.3409 212.89 21 20.08 -0.92
Greg Olsen TE 2.2942 174.24 22 43.53 21.53
Brandin Cooks WR 2.2051 209.02 23 25.45 2.45
Mark Ingram RB 2.1827 213.18 24 23.22 -0.78
Ezekiel Elliott RB 2.1811 213.13 25 10.05 -14.95
Sammy Watkins WR 2.1165 206.49 26 29.90 3.90
Mike Evans WR 2.0786 205.41 27 21.53 -5.47
Jordan Reed TE 2.0699 169.87 28 35.68 7.68
Aaron Rodgers QB 2.0099 318.91 29 38.00 9.00
LeSean McCoy RB 1.9970 207.20 30 27.63 -2.37
Amari Cooper WR 1.9766 202.50 31 24.07 -6.93
Demaryius Thomas WR 1.9642 202.15 32 28.32 -3.68
T.Y. Hilton WR 1.9602 202.04 33 30.23 -2.77
Jarvis Landry WR 1.7797 196.89 34 34.47 0.47
Randall Cobb WR 1.6774 193.97 35 37.48 2.48
Eddie Lacy RB 1.5657 193.30 36 26.17 -9.83
Doug Martin RB 1.5410 192.51 37 26.68 -10.32
Julian Edelman WR 1.4727 188.14 38 35.33 -2.67
Eric Decker WR 1.4641 187.89 39 45.92 6.92
Delanie Walker TE 1.4547 157.88 40 61.05 21.05
Jeremy Maclin WR 1.4466 187.39 41 42.35 1.35
C.J. Anderson RB 1.3923 187.71 42 36.50 -5.50
Doug Baldwin WR 1.3813 185.53 43 46.68 3.68
Matt Forte RB 1.3789 187.28 44 42.73 -1.27
Andrew Luck QB 1.3641 300.74 45 49.57 4.57
Tom Brady QB 1.3568 238.26 46 73.93 27.93
Golden Tate WR 1.3475 184.57 47 41.50 -5.50
Kelvin Benjamin WR 1.2962 183.11 48 41.42 -6.58
Thomas Rawls RB 1.2390 182.78 49 39.05 -9.95
Larry Fitzgerald WR 1.1789 179.76 50 53.37 3.37
Latavius Murray RB 1.1723 180.63 51 45.88 -5.12
Coby Fleener TE 1.1000 150.96 52 64.83 12.83
Drew Brees QB 1.0777 292.69 53 60.50 7.50
Emmanuel Sanders WR 1.0674 176.58 54 65.72 11.72
Travis Kelce TE 1.0310 149.62 55 60.67 5.67
Jordan Matthews WR 0.9758 173.97 56 61.33 5.33
Carlos Hyde RB 0.9640 173.92 57 40.75 -16.25
Michael Floyd WR 0.8973 171.73 58 57.42 -0.58
Jeremy Langford RB 0.8608 170.59 59 65.18 6.18
Donte Moncrief WR 0.8604 170.68 60 52.58 -7.42
DeMarco Murray RB 0.7909 168.34 61 50.10 -10.90
Blake Bortles QB 0.7161 282.51 62 86.45 24.45
Ben Roethlisberger QB 0.6739 281.33 63 65.57 2.57
Giovani Bernard RB 0.6123 162.59 64 74.08 10.08
Ryan Mathews RB 0.6037 162.31 65 64.60 -0.40
Gary Barnidge TE 0.5906 141.03 66 94.03 28.03
Allen Hurns WR 0.5857 162.85 67 71.22 4.22
Danny Woodhead RB 0.5824 161.62 68 71.88 3.88
DeSean Jackson WR 0.5646 162.25 69 87.63 18.63
Jonathan Stewart RB 0.5629 160.99 70 64.50 -5.50
Jeremy Hill RB 0.5200 159.61 71 63.63 -7.37
Michael Crabtree WR 0.4858 160.00 72 83.17 11.17
John Brown WR 0.4741 159.67 73 69.23 -3.77
Matt Jones RB 0.4707 158.02 74 67.32 -6.68
Carson Palmer QB 0.4586 275.27 75 75.20 0.20
DeVante Parker WR 0.4511 159.01 76 72.05 -3.95
Antonio Gates TE 0.4365 138.03 77 104.40 27.40
Duke Johnson RB 0.4261 156.59 78 70.30 -7.70
Tyrod Taylor QB 0.4255 274.34 79 130.50 51.50
Tyler Lockett WR 0.4101 157.84 80 77.88 -2.12
Eli Manning QB 0.2872 270.45 81 87.32 6.32
Marvin Jones WR 0.2634 153.66 82 81.53 -0.47
Zach Ertz TE 0.2424 134.24 83 87.38 4.38
Melvin Gordon RB 0.2180 149.88 84 78.15 -5.85
Philip Rivers QB 0.2049 268.13 85 99.50 14.50
Ameer Abdullah RB 0.1709 148.36 86 90.52 4.52
Tyler Eifert TE 0.1671 132.77 87 86.35 -0.65
Frank Gore RB 0.1249 146.88 88 79.42 -8.58
Matthew Stafford QB 0.1192 265.72 89 139.95 50.95
T.J. Yeldon RB 0.1163 146.60 90 99.62 9.62
Stefon Diggs WR 0.0987 148.96 91 108.07 17.07
Kirk Cousins QB 0.0850 264.76 92 119.97 27.97
Torrey Smith WR 0.0824 148.50 93 111.57 18.57
Rashad Jennings RB 0.0306 143.84 94 91.70 -2.30
Ryan Fitzpatrick QB 0.0000 262.37 95 173.82 78.82
Arian Foster RB 0.0000 142.86 96 69.65 -26.35
Jason Witten TE 0.0000 129.52 97 131.62 34.62
Willie Snead WR 0.0000 146.15 98 107.77 9.77
Andy Dalton QB -0.0471 261.04 99 141.85 42.85
Julius Thomas TE -0.1122 127.33 100 92.35 -7.65
Jameis Winston QB -0.2168 256.27 101 139.12 38.12
Jimmy Graham TE -0.2272 125.09 102 117.17 15.17
Derek Carr QB -0.2279 255.96 103 109.92 6.92
Tony Romo QB -0.3586 252.28 104 125.48 21.48
Matt Ryan QB -0.3792 251.70 105 157.33 52.33
Ryan Tannehill QB -0.5408 247.15 106 169.63 63.63

Here’s quick explanation of some of the columns.
FPTS=fantasy points, FVARz=fantasy value above replacement based on z-score, Rank=My rank, ADP=average draft position, ADPD=difference between ADP and my rank

You’re going to have to take this list with a grain a salt. I think that’s the right phrase. This list is completely numbers driven. There is no intelligence beyond the stats. According to the results, Cam Newton is a first rounder. While that might statistically be true, I can’t see myself taking him over Adrian Peterson. It’s just not logical. However, these rankings should help give you an idea of where all the pieces fit in a “perfect” world.

I’d like to discuss the last column “ADPD” in the table above. This value represents the difference between where I have a player ranked and his current average draft position. This is where we can find bargains on draft. It will also help us pinpoint players that are being drafted too early. You should likely avoid most of these players.

Let’s see what bargains we can find.

Tom Brady has an ADP of 74.4, but I have him ranked 19. He’s clearly not a second rounder. So here’s how I’d approach this. Pick 74 is the sixth round in a 12-team league. If Brady is your guy, then I’d draft him in the fifth round and know you got a bargain.

Greg Olsen is currently being selected with the 44th pick. My ranks put him at 21. Take him in the 30’s and be happy.

Danny Woodhead. ADP is 58. His rank is 36.

By now you should see where I’m going with this. If not, just make sure you are aware of every players’ average draft position. This will keep you from drafting a guy in the fourth round when you can wait until the eighth. As for ADP data, do not use your sites built in rankings. Those values are hot garbage. Your best source is the results of the thousands of completed online drafts. This is where I get my data.

I have attached my full set of projections at the bottom of this post. In addition to all of the projections, there is a worksheet labeled “Draft” which ranks all of the players and includes ADP details for both standard and PPR formats. The first column (drafted) can be used to check off drafted players. Entering a “1” (no quotes) will highlight that row green for a player you have drafted on your team. If you enter any other value, the row will turn red, indicating a player that is no longer available.

By the way, the answer to Freeman versus Robinson is (you tell me in the comments section). Any why.

Download Projections here!

 

  1. Chris says:
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    Thanks malamoney!
    I’m in a ppr 8 man league I have the first pick I’m going brown. Thinking of a few different scenarios can you tell me which one you like best?
    1. Brown-bell-Miller
    2. Brown marshal Allen
    3. Brown bell Marshall
    4. Brown bell Allen
    Or if freeman is available do I go him and someone else. It’s a weird league there will be 4 qb’ maybe 5 by the time I go @ 16. I’m waiting way late on qbs I thinks.
    Thanks!

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Chris: I think you have to figure an RB in there. I like Brown, Bell and Allen. Just make sure you don’t jump the gun on any players. Meaning don’t draft someone too early…

      • Chris says:
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        thanks! If bell is gone just go the next best back then I’m thinking either Miller or freeman.?

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
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          @Chris: Probably. But I’d have to weigh which WR was available as compared to the top RB that was there. You can always tweet me and I can try and help…

  2. papafrog says:
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    Just to be clear, can you state what scoring system you used for the fantasy point projections for QB, RB and WR/TE? Thanks and good stuff.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @papafrog:

      QB: TD=4, 25 yards passing=1, 10 yards rushing=1, Int=-1
      RB: TD=6, 10 yards rushing=1
      WR: TD=6, 10 yards receiving=1

      Fractional scoring was used. All of the normal scoring was used…

      • papafrog says:
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        @malamoney: Thanks!

  3. Psh says:
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    Thanks for all your posts just in time for my draft. I’m the guy from the other day asking about a 12 team keeper league where we can keep 3 players for 3 years. You advised I keep:
    Freeman $1
    Antonio $61
    Sammy Watkins for $7

    I was wondering how close you’d be to swapping Sammy at $7 for Lamar at $33 instead. I’m torn between which one to keep. I’ll likely just draft which ever I don’t keep (if I keep Sammy, draft Lamar, if I keep Lamar, draft Sammy).

    And I’d rather have Allen Robinson due to 1) devanta wasn’t even supposed to be the starter last year, rb’s injury risk > Allen Robinson and I’m down on the Falcons as a team this year. I think the jags will keep airing it out just like last year.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Psh: This is an auction, right? If so, then you have to keep Watkins at $7. If got Watkins at about $30. So getting him at $7 is a $23 savings. I’ve got Lamar at $44. So getting him at 33 is only an $11 savings.

      If it’s not auction, then even if you get him for $44, then you’ve made out. You will have paid $51 for both Watkins and Miller. If you keep Miller at $33, then you’d have to get Watkins for less than $18. I’m not sure you will. I’m guessing he goes for between $25 and $30…

      • Psh says:
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        @malamoney: you’ve got some great points, basically I wish we were allowed 4 keepers but I guess one has to go. I do think my specifi league hates Sammy but you’re right he’ll prob go for around $30. I do bet Lamar miller might go for $50+ but no guarantees. Gronk went for $70+ last year ($200 budget).

        So if I keep watkins who should be my main priority?
        1) Gronk
        2) aj green /dez Bryant/ alshon Jeffery
        3) Adrian Peterson

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
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          @Psh: Even if you pay $50 for Lamar you will be getting Watkins and Lamar for $57. If you keep Lamar you will have to pay less than $24 to break even. His average price is $30. And here’s the thing. I want no part of Watkins at $30. None. But at $15 or less, I’m all over him. At $7, that a steal in auction leagues…

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
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          @Psh: In auction leagues I refuse to pay Gronk’s price tag. I hate Dez. I’d go AP or whatever top RB is available.

          Here’s something to keep in mind. Player’s average prices become skewed in league where there are keepers. The reason is because someone is able to keep a guy that should cost let’s say $40 for $10. Now that team has an extra $30 to throw around and over pay for someone else. So if you have extra dollars, do not be afraid to over pay for the right player. Otherwise you will miss out because you league mates will…

  4. Kutty says:
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    Charles isn’t even going to play until who knows when. Once I saw his name that high I stopped reading. Getting brown obj and julio is nice but wrs are so deep this year im taking rbs in the 1st round. Grab Elliot Johnson Gurley and just draft baldwin moncrief cooks later on. The difference between those guys are a lot closer than ending up with some garbage like j.stew or matt jones

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Kutty: Are you in a PPR league? There is a big difference between Brown and Jones and the receivers you mentioned. Especially in PPR. In standard leagues I have no issue with your strategy, but I’m still taking Brown with the first pick…

      • Kutty says:
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        Ok ill concede on brown but that’s about it. Charles 3rd is a joke and k.allen and j.nelson are way too high for me. Allen cant stay on the field and nelson is old and clearly on the downside of his career.

  5. Old Dirty says:
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    I’m in a 12 team, .5 pp, where we start 1 qb, 2 rb, 2 Wr , no flex. Dynasty . Keep guys for up to 3 years . It’s my last year keeping lacy. I do have the rights to trade him next season.

    Would you trade lacy for freeman ?

    Also, in a different league – same format, but redraft –
    would you trade c. Michael for ware ? I have Charles as my rb1

    Thanks !

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Old Dirty: Yes I would make that trade. Yes, I would trade Michael to Ware considering you own Charles…

  6. PNW says:
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    Hey i have a quick question, in your spreadsheet on “avg draft values” and “points per draft dollar” since i play in a keeper league, i calculated the “keeper inflation” or the multiplication factor used to caclucualte what their actual fair value is in my specific league. For instance the value is 1.3.

    so Anotonio brown, per your research, is a $62 player, but in my league since “value is being kept”, he’s really (62x 1.3 or actually a $80 player in my league)

    its a 12 team league and everyone is allowed 3 keeprs, should I just put a formula in that spreadsheet increasing all players values by multiplication factor or 1.3 for my draft tonight? i’m not the best at math or microsoft excel but will this mess up the “points per draft dollar” metric or since all players are being increased by the 1.3 rate shouldn’t all relative values in the points per draft dollar stay the same ( i mean the numbers will change but the overall message is still the same, guy xyz is more valuable due to their perceived cost)

    sorry all that is confusing I just wanted someone elses opinion.

    FWIW. this is by far one of the most useful tools i’ve seen in draft preps. Thanks again.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @PNW: Which spreadsheet are you talking about. The one with PPD is not the one associated with this post. Just want to make sure we are on the same page…

      • PNW says:
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        @malamoney: oh yea sorry it’s the one from your previous post, i plan on taking both and forming a hybrid spreadsheet as both contain really good data.

        drafts tomorrow night not tonight that was a typo. so yea the PPD post was what i am referring to

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
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          @PNW: If you send me your email address I can email you an updated version of the PPD spreadsheet with all values multiplied by 1.3

          If you dont’ want to post your email here, you can just email me at [email protected]

  7. Blake says:
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    so I am in a standard 10 team league with the same pts that you list – we also have bonus pts for passers above 300, runners/recievers above 100. So just so I am clear – the far right in the draft tab is the standard pts. I filter on your “rank” column to get your rankings, then use the adp tab to see where that person is drafted compared to your ranking. if the difference column shows positive then I am getting a bargain? correct? just be sure I am getting a 10 picks or few picks ahead of his ADP?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Blake: You are correct. If you sort by “rank” this will sort the players how I have them ranked in standard leagues. The “adp” column shows their ADP in standard leagues. The “diff” column shows the difference between my rank and ADP.

      For example, if you draft Antonio Brown with the first pick you are getting him at “even money”. But if you got him with the 5th pick you are getting a 4 pick bargain. You can overwrite the value in the “adp” column with the pick you would be using to select a player to see what your bargain would be…

  8. Blake says:
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    also, are you going to update the rankings based on final cuts today? ie Justin forsett? my draft is tomorrow.; Sure would love to use this real time

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Blake: I was not planning on it. If you want to do so it’s pretty easy to delete rows. Or you don’t even have to delete them. Just put an “x” in the first column for any players that have been cut…

  9. Jerry says:
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    Hey, Malamoney! Cobb or Cooper this year in a full point ppr league? Thanks and enjoy the weekend!

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Jerry: Cooper by a little bit…

  10. Jerry says:
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    Ok, thanks! How about T.Y. or Cooper?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Jerry: Cooper. Unless something has happened in the last few days, my answer will be the same as the spreadsheet…

  11. Blake says:
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    so whats the deal with Charles? not going to be back for a few weeks? how far should he slide down boards?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Blake: I’d probably drop him down right ahead of Forte…

      • Blake says:
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        @malamoney:

        when I do that in your Draft tab – do I put the new rank in and will autopopulate the rest?

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
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          @Blake: No, it’s not dynamic like that.

          If you send me your email address or email me at [email protected] I will send you a updated version moving Charles down.

          • Blake says:
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            @malamoney:

            sent you an email – thx!

            • malamoney

              malamoney says:
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              @Blake: Projections sent.

              I am including my explanation here for the benefit of other readers.

              Here’s the thing. Increasing a passing TD to 6 points really isn’t going to change the overall rankings that much. The reason is because everyone is still going to a QB. Think about it like this. Let’s say QBs scored around 400 points each. Everyone will have a QB so they are all going to get those point. Now let’s say we upped QB points and they are were going to get around 1000 points. But since everyone will still have a QB and points increased for all QBs then everyone’s total team points increases nearly equally. So why QBs suddenly score more points, their relative value to the team remains relatively equal because every team in your league is getting that same increase.

              What would make a difference here is if you had a QB or two that was projected to get a lot more passing TDs than the rest of the QBs. Then this particular QB or two would see a nice bump in value and rankings.

  12. Old Dirty says:
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    I’m in a td only league where we don’t sit/start players . We have 2 qbs, 4 rbs, 4 wrs, & 1 Te. ToTal points at the end of the year wins . 8 toTal teams. 4 points for throwing a td, 6 points for rush/catch

    Do you know anywhere that puts out a td only ranking ?

    Who would your top 8 be?
    I was thinking
    Brown
    Odb
    Gurley
    Johnson
    Miller
    Ap
    Jones
    Newton

    Thanks

  13. BeckhamsTears says:
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    I crunched numbers for half-PPR league using the data sheet and on a per-game basis for my funky league that treats W/T the same.
    Came up with Zach Miller is number 9 overall (Gronk is 29)??
    I think his stats projection is either high overall, or it’s meant for >8 games.

    Enjoy the z-score lesson and now trying to find a way to add this into my auction draft strategy

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @BeckhamsTears: You must be doing something wrong because for half-PPR I have Zach Miller as the 16th TE and he doesn’t even rank overall…

      • BeckhamsTears says:
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        @malamoney: on a points-per-game basis, he’s #1

        Z Miller – 119 points, 8 games, 14.9 ppg
        Gronk – 205 points, 16 games, 12.9 ppg
        Olsen – 174 points, 16 games, 10.8 ppg
        J Reed – 170 points, 16 games, 10.6 ppg

        I think he plays more than 8 games, but no way his production doubles.

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
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          @BeckhamsTears: Gotcha, but that is still technically wrong. Remember, if you draft Miller, you still have to draft another TE for those other 8 or so games…

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