It’s pretty well documented that I can’t stand TV commercials.  The way they distort reality and smother you in fake attitudes makes me loathe the gaps in between shows or games, making the mute button or channel return my best friend.  But even I, the commercial hater, sometimes succumb to complacency and actually semi-digest whatever faux-messages are beamed into my consciousness.

Now, what’s ironic about hating commercials is that I actually have a degree in marketing.  And don’t get me wrong, the right commercial that tells it straight and has solid production values (I double majored in film studies as well) will really turn my eye.  But it just doesn’t happen often anymore.  Remember when Super Bowl ads were part of the reason you watched the Super Bowl?  Not anymore!

So I was having a momentary lapse with my attention span and actually paid attention to a few commercials during a break in Sportscenter yesterday, and saw this commercial was still on the air: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8sN6T5A77Y

Really Reebok?  You’re still pumping part of your advertising revenue on Chad motherflubbing Ochocinco!  Eesh.  They must have no money to get a new sponsor or Ocho’s contract is still bleeding them dry.  At least the Brett Favre Wrangler Jeans commercial isn’t playing anymore… Either way, it made me thing about the nature of sports, and more specifically, fantasy sports these days.  Big name players and their production are changing with reckless abandon, making managing your fake dream teams as difficult as it’s ever been.

If you had an early draft, Peyton Manning was a lock.  Other guys like Roddy White were sure to have another great year.  And Peyton Hillis and Knowshon Moreno were perfect as RB2s.  Oh how things change.

I know I mentioned Peyton(s), but I’m not trying to emphasize value change because of injuries.  Things happen and neck surgeries don’t heal right.  But I feel like the ever changing fantasy values of even healthy players highlights the shifting paradigm of sports personalities becoming the here and now rather than the been-there done-that.  Today’s media age doesn’t care about what you’ve done in the recent past; it’s all about the now.  Just ask Minnesota Twins fans who booed Joe Mauer all year.

The fantasy environment is even more situated to have that itchy trigger-finger; dropping guys who have struggled thus far instead of trying to weather the storm is more practical.  Your fantasy line-up as a fluid, malleable roster is the way to go.  Use your FAAB.  Use all the waiver-wire moves you can.  Because even if guys like Tebow or Jackie Battle don’t work out, there’s gonna be plenty of high-productivity guys sneaking onto the wire down the road.

Last week’s picks didn’t go well but they weren’t terrible,  as Earnest Graham had a big day, Greg Little and David Nelson has sufficient games receiving going 60+ yards in bye-week fill-ins, and Colt McCoy, while playing pretty poorly in real-life standards, had 2 TDs and indeed outperformed Matt Schaub.  However, Daniel Thomas really disappointed, and Rashard Mendenhall, Marques Colston, and Brandon Marshall went off.  It seemed like the Dolphins were going to throw to him even if he was completely covered by Revis, giving Marshall 13 targets that produced only 6 catches.  Javhid Best had an OK day as well, as he was (correctly predicted) stuffed on the ground, but made up for it through the air.

Here are some guys that I like for week 7 that most people aren’t starting and some guys to think about benching (along with their % start figures on ESPN & Yahoo, respectively).

Possible Starters

Jackie Battle (24.5%, 27%) After exploding onto the scene in week 5 against Indy, Battle looks primed for another big workload against the porous Oakland run D this week.  Dexter McCluster just isn’t big enough to handle much more than a change-of-pace role, and Thomas Jones is… Thomas Jones.  Battle should see yet another 20 touches this week, with a good chance of getting his second consecutive 100 yard game.

Doug Baldwin (20%, 27%) Slowly creeping into more and more fantasy rosters, Baldwin is a great play this week against a Joe Haden-less Cleveland secondary.   Baldwin doesn’t lose any value with Charlie Whitehurst at the helm with some established chemistry sprouting from week 5’s upset over the Giants.  A 70-yard game with a possible TD is a good bet.

Steve Breaston (19.4%, 15%) Keeping things Chiefs heavy (see above and below), I think Steve Breaston is a great WR fill-in or flex play if you’re reaching deep.  Oakland is going to put as much coverage on Dwayne Bowe as possible, giving the Cassel-Breaston connection a lot of love on the underneath and slant routes to highlight Breatson’s speed.  Breaston is coming off 3 straight 50-yard games, and a 2 TDer before KC’s bye.

Matt Cassel (10.7%, 16%) Cassel looked so abysmal the first few weeks of the season that suggesting him for a start now seems dirtier than a Charlie Sheen mud wrestling party.  But Cassel torched the Colts with 4 TDs in week 5, and I like him as a strong bye-week fill-in this week against Oakland.  I think the Chiefs will have balance on offense and give Cassel at least 3-4 red zone opportunities to throw for scores.  Not to mention the deep-threat ability of Breaston and Bowe against a bad secondary.  Start with confidence if you’re missing your best QB option.

Daniel Thomas (30.7%, 46%) I’m sticking with Thomas again this week, mainly because he has another great match-up against the Broncos.  His hammy will have another week of healing, and I see big things from the rookie.  With all the flux of mediocre time-share running backs out there, I’m a little surprised Thomas hasn’t cracked the over 50% start percentages yet.  Give it time, he’ll soon be up there, boosted by a nice game tomorrow.

Son of a Bench

Larry Fitzgerald (81.1%, 77%) I don’t know many people that could’ve thought Fitzgerald would be worse this year with Kevin Kolb at QB than the mess of Derek Anderson and some other guys I can’t remember (and won’t ever need to) that the Cardinals threw out there last year.  What a catastrophe Arizona’s passing game has become.  What could be even worse for Fitzy?  He’s going against the Steelers this week, who give up the least points to fantasy WRs.  I know it’s hard benching a guy with Fitz’s talent, but it’s going to be yet another long day for Zona.  I’m benching him unless it’s a deep league or your options are limited.

Anquan Boldin (68.7%, 81%) Boldin’s coming off a huge game last week, but don’t let that trick you into starting him confidentially.  The Jags defense isn’t terrible against the pass, and I see a lot of Ray Rice coming on Monday Night Football.  I don’t think the Ravens game plan will call for much of him this week, and I like the Ravens to play conservative, tough defense against the opposing rookie QB.  Not a strong option for me.

Shonn Greene (62.2%, 71%) The start percentages for Shonn Greene are absolutely baffling to me.  No, I’m not putting much stock into LaDanian Tomlinson getting the “ceremonial” start against his former Chargers tomorrow, but Greene hasn’t done much of anything, and I see the Jets going down early.  San Diego’s run D has been pretty stout, so I’d look for other options to start at RB this week if you’re still rolling Greene out there.

Philip Rivers (60.7%, 59%) Like in the intro, Philip Rivers’ fantasy production has changed dramatically from last year when he was the top QB a few times through the first half of the season.  The Jets are actually giving up the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs right now, while at the same time still getting gashed in the run game.  Even with Antonio Gates possibly gutting out a start, I don’t think Rivers does too much on Sunday.  Look for a lot of Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert and don’t be surprised if Rivers has a slow afternoon.

Beanie Wells (71.3%, 59%) When does anyone like starting Beanie Wells?  Well, I guess Ohio State fans… It’s a tough match-up against Pittsburgh’s run D and I don’t see this game being very close.  I think Arizona’s offense gets completely stymied (I’ve literally never used that word before!) and Wells and the run game gets stuffed along with Fitzy and the receiving game.  Tough to think of any situation where I’d be happy starting Wells this week.

If you have any last second decisions, shoot me some comments, or tweet me @jbgilpin.  If you’re of the legal drinking age (have to say that due to our legal dept.), keep playing the Twitter “Gruden ‘that guy’ drinking game” (#GrudenThatGuyDrinkingGame) for the ultimate party game that’s primed to sweep the nation.  Good luck to everyone in week 7!

  1. Jason says:
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    My opponent and I are playing higher-lower. I’m trying to make a deal for te hernandez. I offered rb battle and he counter for rb gore. Obviously no. I’m thinking of packaging gresham with rb murray. Take a look at my line up. I’ve got rb depth. Gresham will be part of the deal, because I have k slot open and need to fill. I’ll have to drop or trade him, so why not.

    10 team Standard league scoring; qb, wr, rb, te, w/r, w/r, w/r. k, def, 6 bench

    qb= romo, ben, tebow wr= white, manningham rb= peterson, gore, s. jax, d. thomas, battle, murray, morris te= gresham, dickson (bye wk) k= open slot (drop kickers to max waiver and trade. on sunday drop weekest link for kicker) def= rotate wkly

    He’s 2-4 and we don’t play one another again, unless we meet in the playoffs. His next few matches are against opponents I would like to see lose. It may benefits my standings.
    > Gresham + Murray or morris or … for Hernandez?
    Thanks

  2. Cheeeeeze says:
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    what do you say about starting pettigrew over finley?

  3. Robert says:
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    JB! I’m back for more wisdom! Looking at my WRs, RBs, and then Flex…

    – Pick ONE (starting Roddy in the other slot): VJax, A. Brown (return yds), Little

    – Pick TWO: SJax, McGahee, Ingram, L. Washington (return yds)

    – Pick TWO: (Any of the non-picked options above), Finley, Gates

    Obi Wan JB…I’ve started 2-4 in this, my most important league…Got to get a win this week! :)

  4. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @Jason: That would definitely be a money trade for you… Chances are you won’t be close to starting either Murray or Morris, so losing either one of them means very little; then you get the vast improvement of Hernandez over Gresham. If you can get that trade go for it ASAP!

  5. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @Cheeeeeze: Yea… I’m all for it, Finley’s pretty much only had one good game. I like Pettigrew a lot and the Lions should be looking to fire on all cylinders after losing to the 49ers and with no running game with Best out.

  6. Random Collmenter says:
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    agree about benching beanie, but arizona’s gonna be behind and passing a lot. benching Fitz is insane! He’s still a low-end WR1 no matter who he’s matched up against, and could easily catch for 100 yards and a score or two, even if he’s double teamed every play.

    same goes for rivers – can’t bench your studs!!!!

    and they ARE still playing the favre wrangler ad, btw. i wish they played the SNL spoof “crotchless jeans” instead. i liked that one.

  7. El Gato says:
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    Battle or Torain this weekend? Already rolling with AP in my other slot.

    1/2 pt. PPR league

    Thanks.

  8. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @Robert: Hey man! Glad you’re back after I told you to bench Boldin… but man, I don’t think anyone saw a big game there. 1) I don’t think you can bench VJax for those other guys even with Revis island looming, I’d stick with him. 2) Think it’s SJax and McGahee ahead of the other guys. 3) Ya know, I’d probably stay with Finley and take a shot on Little. Brown hasn’t piled up the return yards in 2 of the last 3 weeks and I don’t think the Steelers are gonna need much of the passing game against the Cardinals. I think Little is still emerging and Gates might have a slow game easing his way back, if he plays at all. I’m 2-4 in my most important leagues as well, with a 1 and 2 point loss… Been a tough year, I feel your pain!

  9. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @Random Collmenter: What! The Wrangler ad is still on! Man… I hear ya, it’s just what I’m thinking though… As we’ve seen in a lot of situations, without a QB, receivers have rough outings… I’m skeptical he has a nice game as the Steelers more-often-than-not still dial it up in garbage time. And benching Rivers is no indictment of him, I just think it’s going to be run run run against the Jets D. We’ll see man, thanks for reading each week!

  10. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @El Gato: Love Battle. I know it’s my lowly Panthers run D, but you never know what Shanahanigens will go on in the Redskins backfield, so I’d bench Torain.

  11. VinzoGinzo says:
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    Beanie has 6 TDs in 4 starts and not a game without a score. Pitt has allowed RB scores in 4 of 6 games and given up over 100 yds rushing in three games. I like anecdotal evidence, almost as much as I like Wells this week.

  12. Nick says:
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    For RB, Week 7 starters = Forte, Murray, Torain (flex) over Starks …and at WR3, DHB over M Thomas… agreed?

    Would you suggest dumping M Thomas and picking up Breaston, D Nelson, Hester or Burleson in a 10-team league?

  13. heluhelu says:
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    Hey Jonathan, got a free agent/scrapheap question:Which one should I pick up for this week: Hines Ward, Roy Williams (any other Bears WRs for that matter), Massaquoi, Ford or Gaffney? Gotta love the bye weeks. Hope the stench doesn’t hurt the eyes. Thanks.

  14. hotrod says:
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    Dilemma…

    1 point ppr
    All TD’s 6 points
    10 yards recieving 1 point
    25 yards passing 1 point

    Mark Sanchez or Colston?

    I start Steve Smith & Roddy White at my 2 WR spots…if you pick sanchez, would you start Colston over Roddy or Steve Smith?

    Thanks

  15. Jessup says:
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    Jackie Battle or Ryan Torain?

    p.s. Could we kill the auto-play ads on the bottom of the page? Took me forever to figure out where it was coming from.

  16. In Trouble says:
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    Got issues this week. 16 team PPR, QB/RBx2,WRx3,WR/RB/TE/K/DEF Injury bug (Peyton, Best, and Andre Johnson) and bye (LeSean McCoy, Manningham, Nelson, Crabtree) combined with 4 bench spots puts me in a world of hurt. I’ve already dropped Peyton but is it worth dropping Nelson and Crabtree to field a full roster that will probably lose anyway (up against Romo, Foster, Finley, and some crap) or should I write off this week and make sure I keep them for later? I have 15th waiver priority

    Current starters :
    QB: Painter
    RB: Morris, Battle
    WR: Bess, Douglas,
    RB/WR:
    TE: Daniels, K: Kasay, DEF: Pitt

    FA Options: Keiland Williams, Devery Henderson, Brian Hartline, Mike Williams (Sea), Jacoby Ford, Josh Cribbs, Brandon LaFell, Austin Collie, Titus Young, Randall Cobb, Donald Brown, Donald Driver

  17. brobocop says:
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    Ppr…need 2 rb d thomas, Starks, hightower, Torrain, Murray and battle. Thanks

  18. Randy says:
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    I have a good matchup this week. My oppenent has a bunch of his starters on byes. Which are the “safer” plays?
    Torain or Maurice Morris?
    Garcon or Nate Washington?
    Thanks

  19. Carl says:
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    Battle, D. Thomas, or Ingram for my flex spot this week?
    Many thanks.

  20. Ryan says:
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    Would u start battle over decker this week in flex? Standard league
    Help!!

  21. djbooyah20 says:
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    I currently have Hasselbeck penciled in as my bye week replacement. You believe Cassel to be a better option? I’ve been getting mixed signals from all over the FF community. I have Hasselbeck as of now, but I can grab Cassel at will and make it happen.

    Please convince me, because I could surely use a solid week from my QB. My opponent has Ray Rice, AP, oh and Arian Foster….FML.

  22. Anthony says:
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    @Jonathan Gilpin – My Team: QBS: Rodgers/ Tebow RBS: mendenhall, mathews, mcgahee, lawfirm, lt, best, WRS: Miles Austin, David NElson, Preston Parker, TE: Gates, Gresham, K: Cundiff, Def: Packers

    I dont really see any weaknesses in my team. I think if anything i should maybe trade a RB and get a #2 WR to go along with Austin ? What do you guys think

  23. Nick says:
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    Trying to decide whether to start Michael Bush or James Starks this week in one of my RB slots. Thoughts?

  24. JD says:
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    You wanna know a commercial that shouldn’t be airing anymore? The Reggie Bush Pizza Hut commercial. I’m pretty sure no one would trade a pizza for him anymore.

  25. morgan freeman says:
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    Which 3 WRs should I start? non PPR. Gotta pick from james jones, doug baldwin, reggie wayne, percy harvin, steve smith, eric decker.

  26. Robert says:
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    @Jonathan Gilpin: No worries about Boldin…I agree, that performance was way out of the blue. But, I wanted to ask you…why not Ingram at FLEX? I mean, I know he’s splitting touches, but with Indy’s bad run D and the fact that the Saints may go up big, he seems like he could really do some damage. In the end, I guess Finley just kinda scares me at this point. I know he’s capable of a big day, but his 1 good week in the last 6 really kinda has me gun shy over him. Thoughts?

  27. tomhimself says:
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    start cam newton or tony romo?

  28. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @VinzoGinzo: We’ll see man!

  29. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @Nick: I like all you starts there… I’m tempted to say drop Thomas for either Breaston or Nelson, but I might actually say hang tough as it seems like there’s a lot of WR options out there and you can wait a week or two to make a decision if Thomas and Gabbert don’t develop a little more rapport.

  30. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @heluhelu: I’d probably say Ford, just because he gets a carry or two most weeks and has the best chance to bust a big play.

  31. Shmorgie S. Board says:
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    I’m starting Battle and Murray.

    For my flex: J-Stew, Mo Mo, or Graham?

  32. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @hotrod: Naw, I think you got it right. Pretty much any QB is a safer play over a WR and I like Smith and White more than Colston this week.

  33. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @Jessup: Battle. And yea, I’ll mention it to our programmers :)

  34. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @In Trouble: I think your best options off the wire are Young, Ford and Brown… And all 3 of those options aren’t exactly much worse than Nelson. I definitely wouldn’t drop Crabtree, but I might take a shot on either Young or Ford; both can make big plays. Probably Ford, who could sneak in a return TD for you as well if you’re lucky.

  35. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @brobocop: Thomas and Battle… I think they have the most assured work right now.

  36. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @Randy: First off, I love that you’re thinking safe with a matchup you like. I think it’s Torain and Garcon. Tough to stick with a Skins back but I don’t have any faith in Morris this afternoon.

  37. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @Carl: I’d stick with Thomas, I think he’s got a big game comin’

  38. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @Ryan: I definitely would man! Tebow actually hasn’t been that bad of a passer, but I don’t think his first game as starter is going to yield a big game for Decker. I like Battle a lot.

  39. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @djbooyah20: Jesus, must have been a lucky past few years for him to have those keepers as his backs… And of course there’s mixed signals all across FF, that’s what it’s all about, taking all the advice you can read and see what make the most sense for ya. I like Cassel more. I think Battle is a better back than McCluster or Jones (at least at this point in his career) and will help give the offense some much needed balance. Cassel and the Chiefs last game against Oakland was week 17 last year, and Cassel was atrocious. No Nnamdi and a struggling secondary this year and I think Cassel will look to make amends (that’s more psychological that stat-advice). Hasselbeck is against the Titans who give up the 9th least fantasy points to QBs, Oakland gives up the 3rd most to opposing QBs. If any of that sounds good to you, roll with it!

  40. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @Anthony: I’m right there with ya man, your WR2 is you weak point… I’d shop whoever you could to get the best receiver because you have a stable at RB… McGahee might be where I’d start, just like in Carolina, I think Tebow becomes the goal-line back and McGahee isn’t exactly a big play runner anymore.

  41. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @Nick: Ugh… I’s go with Starks though. I think Bush has a sightly limited role, even if he is the goal-line runner.

  42. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @Nick: That was supposed to say “slightly more limited role” haha.

  43. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @JD: Haha, good point… I would surely trade Bush away for a pizza if an owner offered me that!

  44. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @morgan freeman: Glad you’re back Mr. Freeman! I’d go Jones, Baldwin and Smith… Tough group to pick from but I think those 3 have best chances for scores.

  45. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @Robert: I’m with ya man! Finley hasn’t lived up to his, “you’re gonna see something special” claims before the season (or it was something like that), but the way I see it, Finley is on the field almost every offensive play and Ingram isn’t. Rodgers has becomes the best QB in the NFL, and with a guy on the field every play he is, I’d stick with Finley over Ingram. But don’t let me stop you man! If you’re feelin’ Ingram, leave him it! We’ll see who’s right in the comments next week :)

  46. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @tomhimself: I’ve gotten this same question from various people over the past few weeks… Still Cam for me, he had a bad game last week and still racked an OK point total… I think he has a nice game against the Skins.

  47. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @Shmorgie S. Board: I’d go Graham, he’s still the guy in Tampa right now.

  48. djbooyah20 says:
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    Thanks Jon! Who would you start this week: Roddy White, Miles Austin, and BMarsh ; Forte, McFadden, Mendenhall

    I need to choose 2 WR, 2 RB, and a Flex.

    Currently I have BMarsh as the odd man out. But he could out produce a slumping Roddy..so its tough!!

    Thanks!

  49. cplat says:
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    Is giveing Fitz straight up for Aaron Hernadez terrible? I have Bowe/Nicks/Little and a bright star Demarius Thomas at WR. Greg Olsen is my current TE? is it worth it?

  50. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @djbooyah20: Definitely tough, but I think it’s Marshall too… Even though he did OK last Monday, I don’t have any faith with Matt Moore at QB… That’s quite a group of guys to chose from!

  51. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @cplat: Yea, I think that’s too much… unless it’s a keeper league. Hernandez is good and all, but he’ll have some slow games with Gronk getting the looks. Maybe try a package deal or getting another guy with Hernandez.

  52. Anthony says:
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    @Jonathan Gilpin: Would you trade either of my 3 RBS for Roddy White? I just got mcgahee in a trade and im hesistant to trade him away so soon. So would you rather trade best or lawfirm for roddy ??

  53. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @Anthony: If you can get Roddy for either of those guys it’s a good trade… Javhid Best’s concussion scares the living bejesus outta me, especially when you see reports like this: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/10/21/SPDM1LKUFB.DTL Of course, you have to take that kind of speculation with a grain of salt, but I’d trade Best if I could ASAP.

  54. cplat says:
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    Thanks figured that was too much, but hate Fitz just chilling on the bench

  55. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @cplat: Me too man, me too… I wish Kevin Kolb wasn’t such a bust…

  56. morgan freeman says:
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    Harvin, decker or reggie wayne?????

  57. JB Gilpin

    Jonathan Gilpin says:
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    @morgan freeman: I guess Wayne!

Comments are closed.