They say you can’t win your league in the early rounds, but you can certainly lose it. Here’s five picks which can ruin your draft in the early rounds. If you have questions on your drafts and leagues, make sure you hit me up on Instagram @TheFantasyFirstDown or on Twitter @FantasyFirstDwn. Also make sure you check out my dynasty, rookie and redraft rankings and my video analysis of all positional hit rates. And finally, don’t forget to sign up for the Razzbowl so you can take me on in fantasy!
Nico Collins – ADP: Round 1, My Rank: WR9
Nico Collins is being drafted in the first round?! Are you kidding me?! Collins was excellent early last year but his usage was totally unsustainable, as evidenced by his WR29 finish across the final eight weeks. That was despite the absence of Stefon Diggs. Collins also had the league’s second highest end zone target rate last year, a number that will certainly drop with the addition of big man Jayden Collins. Plus ,his general target rate, which was already low, remains under threat from Collins and fellow newbies Christian Kirk and Jaylin Noel. There’s a lot to make you nervous about and yet Nico will cost you a first round pick. I’m tying my wagon to a different horse in my hunt for fantasy victory.
Brock Bowers – ADP: Mid-Round 2, My Rank: TE1
I absolutely love Brock Bowers. I was extremely high on him last year and had him in nearly half of my 30 teams. But this year is different. Not only is he being drafted too high for any tight end when the position is so deep this year, he’s highly likely to fall back to Top 5 tight end production at best, as Sam LaPorta did after a league leading 2023. In Bowers’ case, the issue is a massive change in target competition. Bowers caught over a quarter of the Raiders’ 2024 receptions with 110, while Jakobi Meyers was the only other player with over 50 catches on the team. This year, Ashton Jeanty arrives as a high level receiving back who should garner about 80 targets (compared to Ameer Abdullah’s 40 receptions last year) and cause a drop in passing due to his strong run game. Meanwhile, Jack Bech and D’Onte Thornton are also highly thought of additions to the receiver room, major upgrades over Tre Tucker (who had 47 receptions as the WR2) and DJ Turner (the WR3 with just 16 receptions). But hey, let’s say Bowers somehow repeats his crazy 150 target season and puts up similar numbers. It’s unlikely, but I’ll go with you on it. Last year he received 12 points per game, the same amount as Trey McBride and two less than George Kittle! There is absolutely no reason to reach for Bowers when you can get McBride or Kittle a round or two later. Or you could even wait until the nineth round for David Njoku, who scored just 1.5 points less per game. This is such an easy decision. Wait on tight end, at least for a couple of rounds.
Drake London – ADP: Mid-Round 2, My Rank: WR12
Drake London will cost you a mid-second round pick, which is at least a round too early for me. Yes, he was the WR5 last season if we include his ridiculous Week 18, but on a per-game basis during the fantasy season he was just the WR22, scoring just two points more per game than Darnell Mooney, who you can draft eight rounds later. Michael Penix may be the trigger for a big fourth season for the Falcons receiver, but if you draft London in the second round, you’re losing any benefit from drafting a Top 10 receiver, while also carrying a heap of risk. Let somebody else take the risk and draft for more upside or at least more value.
Kenneth Walker – ADP: Round 4, My Rank: RB20
There is no chance Kenneth Walker is a league winner and he has the real potential to be a bust. The Seahawks early down banger has yet to finish in the Top 18 for running backs and has an unhealthy habit of missing a handful of games each season. Awkwardly, he’s missed games due to right leg or abdominal injuries alone seven times in the last three seasons for a total of 10 missed games. There’s a high chance these injuries repeat in 2025 but even if they don’t, Walker is unlikely to pay off. He averaged just 3.7 yards per carry, half a yard less than Zach Charbonnet, and at times played less snaps than his backup, rarely playing in clear passing situations. The interior offensive line is still one of the league’s worst and could lead to a Walker benching. And what is all this risk for? The best case scenario is that Walker stays healthy all season (he won’t), maintains a clear lead role over Charbonnet (that’s unlikely) and keeps his high touchdown efficiency. That would, at best, lead to a Top 15 running back fantasy finish, exactly where you’re drafting him!
Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy – ADP: Round 4 and 5 respectively, My Rank: WR24 and WR 30
Let’s be clear, this has nothing to do with Rashee Rice’s pending suspension, as I wouldn’t have selected him until the mid-fifth round without it. This has everything to do with the Chiefs’ offense, which is why I’ve included Xavier Worthy as well. The Chiefs used to have a league leading passing game, but in 2024 their passing yardage reduced by over 1000 yards compared to their glory years of 2020-2022. This is no coincidence. The Chiefs’ elite defense means they no longer need to throw for over 300 yards a game, passing this mark just three times last year (and topping out at 331 yards) after doing it ten times just two years prior. And to make matters worse, there’s now a heap more target competition in town. In 2023, Rice was the WR22 despite being the only receiver of note. Last year, Worthy was the WR30 as the top receiver. Now they must not only compete with each other, but with Hollywood Brown, who will get a lot more targets than last year’s WR3, Justin Watson, who garnered just 22. Add in Travis Kelce, a healthier Isiah Pacheco and excellent receiving back Brashard Smith and you have a recipe for disaster.
And here’s a little bonus advice. Travis Kelce is a total avoid for me this year, even though he’s going in the sixth round. All the above issues apply to Kelce, but he also looked washed, doing little in the playoffs and struggling for production through much of 2024. He finished as the TE8 on a per-game basis, yet he’s being drafted as the TE6. I love Kelce, he’s been one of my fave fantasy players for the last decade, but he’s a hard pass for me this season.
