Week 1 is thankfully over. Congratulations if you had the San Francisco 49ers or the Dallas Cowboys defense. Congratulations if you had defensive end Leonard Floyd (1.5 sacks, three tackles, two quarterback hits, and one tackle for loss). And if you attacked the Miami Dolphins’ defense or the Los Angeles Chargers’ defense, congratulations.
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It is Week 2, and we have a little more statistics and information, but it is a small sample size. So, we will look at last week’s results, but let’s see if we can connect it to last year’s year-end results, too. Also, let’s not get too weird. It was only one week, right?
First, last week’s results, some good, some not so good. What went right, and what went wrong?
Attacking the Miami Dolphins with Justin Herbert…meh. Herbert finished as QB6 with 20.9 fantasy points. But in that same game, attacking the Los Angeles Chargers defense not with the obvious choice, the running back Raheem Mostert, but with the opposing quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa finished as QB1 with 28.1 fantasy points.
Is it any wonder that Tyreek Hill finished as WR1 with 33.5 fantasy points? Not really. Attacking the Minnesota Viking defense with the wide receivers was an okay idea if you had Mike Evans. Evans finished as WR12 and led the team with 10 targets, six receptions, 66 receiving yards, and one touchdown.
Mostert, by the way, finished as RB17. But congratulations to R1VD3R77 (see comments from last week’s article) on his comments on the Green Bay Packers running backs. Aaron Jones attacked the Chicago Bears’ defense and finished as RB1.
But that was then, and this is now. What defenses are we going to attack in Week 2?
Week 2: Defenses to Attack for Your Fantasy Wins
Defenses to Attack with the Quarterback
On the one hand, the easy answer is either the Dolphins or the Chargers defense. The Dolphins are playing Mac Jones, and the Chargers are playing Ryan Tannehill.
Jones did attempt 54 passes last week (against the Philadelphia Eagles defense) and finished with 316 passing yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. That is tasty. Not to mention, the Eagles’ defense pressured Jones at a crazy 46.6% pressure rate.
The Dolphins versus New England Patriots game has an over/under 46.5. The Dolphins are a road favorite at -2.5. The Patriots held Jalen Hurts and the Eagles to 25 points. Hurts was held to 170 passing yards on 33 attempts.
The teams did meet last season. It seems unfair to compare Jones’ stats because of, well, you know, the whole Matt Patricia experiment. But here it goes. Last season, in their Week 1 meeting, Jones attempted 31 passes for 213 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Tagovailoa attempted 33 passes with 270 yards and a touchdown.
In their Week 18 meeting, Jones attempted 30 passes for 261 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Tagovailoa attempted 22 passes with 109 yards and one touchdown.
Chasing Week 1 numbers is never a good idea. There are better defenses we can attack with the quarterback in Week 2.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars, 51.5 o/u, Chiefs -3.0
Last week, the Chiefs allowed Jared Goff 253 passing yards and 35 passing attempts. The Jaguars allowed rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson 223 yards on 37 passing attempts. Meanwhile, in a game without leading receiving option Travis Kelce, Mahomes passed for 226 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Mahomes finished as QB7.
Lawrence finished with 241 passing yards on 32 passing attempts. He had two passing touchdowns and one interception. Lawrence finished as QB8.
Vegas expects this game to be a shoot-out. This game has the highest predictive total. Kelce’s status for Week 2 is still uncertain. But in a shoot-out, are you going to look anywhere else? Yep.
While it is true the Chiefs got Chris Jones back last year with Jones dominating his position, the Chiefs still gave up the most passing touchdowns to the quarterback position (33) and allowed the third most fantasy points to the quarterback position (19.5).
Attack the Chiefs’ defense with Lawrence and his multitude of weapons. Feel free to attack the Jaguars’ defense with Mahomes and feel better about it if Kelce is healthy.
Attacking the Defense with the Wide Receiver
Calvin Ridley is one of the wide receivers you want to attack. If Lawrence is going to put up numbers worthy of attacking the Chiefs’ defense, he is throwing it to someone. Welcome back, Mr. Ridley.
Last week, Ridley led the Jaguars in targets (11), receptions (8) and receiving yards (101). In week one, Ridley was on the field for 81% of the offensive snaps. He has started right where he left off.
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions, 47.5 o/u, Detroit -6
Last week, the Seahawks allowed rookie Puka Nacua to collect 119 receiving yards on 15 targets and 10 receptions. They also Tutu Atwell 119 receiving yards and six receptions on eight targets. Two receivers with over 100 yards.
Two legitimate receivers will attack the Seahawks’ defense. Last week, the Seahawks recorded two quarterback hits and zero sacks.
Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds can attack the Seahawks defense. Last week against the Chiefs, St. Brown led the team in targets (9), while Reynolds led the team in receiving yards (80). St. Brown was on the field for 94% of the offensive snaps. Reynolds was on the field for 70% of the offensive snaps.
Last season, the Lions’ home versus away split was interesting. The Lions attempted 320 passing at home and 268 away. They had 23 passing touchdowns and six passing touchdowns at home.
In week 1 in standard and PPR leagues, St. Brown was WR11. With no effective pass rush and Goff much better at home, look for St. Brown to attack the Seahawks defense.
Attacking the Defense with Running Back
Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans, 45.5 o/u, Chargers -3
Is it a cheat code to call the best running back to attack the team that has been historically bad against the run? Maybe, but I want a win, and they weren’t that bad against the run last week. Okay, they didn’t need to be…but still.
Mostert and Salvon Ahmed may not have racked up the yards against the Chargers last week, but they both averaged 3.7 yards per attempt. Mostert had 10 attempts, and Ahmed had three rushing attempts.
In a game where he was the offense, Derrick Henry averaged 4.2 yards per attempt on 15 carries.
https://x.com/KyleBrandt/status/1700927025924424155?s=20
The Titans are a three-point underdog at home. Henry had 349 carries last season. He had a broken tackle rate of 12.3%. Henry’s target share of 10.3% was his career high.
Look for the Titans to attack the Chargers on the ground. That means Henry and lots of him.
Attacking Defenses with Tight End
New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals, 39.5 o/u, Giants -5.5
The predictive total in this game is gross. But last week, the Cardinals allowed 10.9 fantasy points to Logan Thomas.
The Giants’ game against the Dallas Cowboys was also gross. But tight end Darren Waller tied the team for the lead in targets (5). He also led the team in receiving yards (36).
This isn’t me picking on the Cardinals. Their defense had six sacks, six quarterback hits, seven passes defended, one interception, two forced fumbles, and recoveries. So, there is a chance quarterback Daniel Jones will experience some discomfort in the pocket. And yet another reason to attack this defense with a quick-out option.
https://x.com/OJPhilly/status/1699093123408810129?s=20
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