It is Week 3, and statistical trends are starting to emerge. We know that the teams that didn’t play their starters in preseason aren’t looking so good. And some of the teams that did play their starters and have them ball out (yeah, I’m looking at you, Pittsburgh) aren’t looking so good. And the teams that everyone thought sucked aren’t looking so bad.
So, what does this all mean? We stick with the statistics and formulate a plan. We know the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers have been good for two weeks. Attacking them isn’t ideal unless your name is Puka Nacua or Kyren Williams. I haven’t found the kryptonite for the Cowboys yet.
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Regarding my projections from last week, let’s get down to the good, the bad, and the ugly—the good would be Darren Waller against the Arizona Cardinals. Waller will soon be a cheat code. But after the first game, seriously, no New York Giant was a cheat code. Waller finished as TE4 in PPR and TE6 in standard fantasy leagues. Waller finished with eight targets, six receptions, and 76 yards.
The bad wasn’t as bad as it was easy because you will never sit Derrick Henry regardless of the matchup. Sure, Henry finished out of the top 10 (he was RB13 in standard and RB12 in PPR), but suggesting he was just lazy. So, that’s bad.
And the ugly was calling for Trevor Lawrence against the Kansas City Chiefs. Sure, it was the game with the highest predictive total. And yes, the Chiefs had just allowed Jared Goff to throw for 253 passing yards and a touchdown (and we can all agree that Lawrence has a higher ceiling than Goff). It just didn’t turn out as expected.
The highest-predictive game was the lowest-scoring game of the week. Lawrence had one of his worst pro career games (giving the Urban Meyer experiment a mulligan) and finished as QB29 with 9.2 fantasy points.
Let’s just move on to Week 3, shall we?
Week 3: Defenses to Attack for Your Fantasy Wins
Defenses to Attack with the Quarterback
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 46.5 o/u, Eagles -5.0
The Eagles have played Kirk Cousins and Mac Jones. The Eagles have allowed an average of 26.4 fantasy points per game, 680 passing yards on 66 completions on 98 attempts, and have surrendered the most passing touchdowns (7). Did I mention Cousins torched them for 364 yards and four touchdowns in prime time?
Now they will play a seemingly resurgent Baker Mayfield also in prime time. Are the Eagles the answer to a quarterback’s prime-time curses? It is a small sample size (two games), but Mayfield has three touchdowns and zero interceptions. He has consistently attempted 34 passes with varying results. Against the Chicago Bears, he completed 26 of those passes for 317 yards. In his first outing against the Minnesota Vikings, he completed 21 of those 34 attempts for 173 yards.
It is almost sacrilegious to suggest attacking the Eagles’ defense with Mayfield in prime time. And yet, it seems disingenuous not to.
In lieu of let’s just put a backup plan out there:
Los Angeles Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings, 54.5 o/u, pick’em
Cousins has become the man.
https://x.com/AlexMicheletti/status/1589406464430723072?s=20
And that is true even on the field. In his two games, he has thrown for over 300 yards in both. He has passed for six touchdown passes and only one interception. And some even speak of him being the answer for the New York Jets.
Let’s concentrate on the fact that the Vikings will play the Chargers. The Chargers are giving up the second most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position (24.1). They have also surrendered the third most passing touchdowns (4) and the most passing yards (712).
This game feels like a dual-attack scenario, but most are playing Justin Herbert without fear. Attacking the Chargers defense with Cousins is also a task done without hesitation.
Defenses to Attack with the Wide Receiver
It is disrespectful not to mention his name, Justin Jefferson. Even if he weren’t playing against the Chargers’ defense embarrassed by Tyreek Hill for 215 receiving yards and two touchdowns, you would be playing him. But this is just a friendly Public Service Announcement.
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens, 45.5 o/u, Ravens -8.0
While all eyes have been on the performance of rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, the Colts’ defense is worth a gaze. The Colts’ defense has given up the second most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position (35.7). They have also allowed four receiving touchdowns to the position, which is a tie for the most.
Now the defense will face the new look Todd Monken/Lamar Jackson offense. This offense is a work in progress. The Ravens are 31st in passing percentage (46.09%) through two games. They are averaging 27.5 passing attempts per game. They are averaging 64 plays per game, which is mid-range.
Now, for the better news, it is Zay Flowers. Attack the Colts defense with Flowers. His 77% snap share in Week 2 was first for receivers and second to tight end Mark Andrews’ 79%. Flowers was third in targets (5) behind Andrews (8) and Nelson Agholor’s six. He was second in yards (62) behind Agholor’s 63.
Flowers’ time on the field exceeds Agholor’s. In Week 1 without Andrews, Flowers was on the field for 84% of the offensive snaps to Agholor’s 38%. Last week, Agholor’s snap share was at 33%.
Per Razzball’s slot versus wide chart, the Colts are giving up 13.9 points per game to the slot position and 39.4 points per game to the wide. That’s 73% of the receiver points are going wide.
Attack the Colts defense with Flowers. If you are playing tournament DFS, you could sneak Agholor in there.
Defenses to Attack with the Running Back
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks, 42.5 o/u, Seahawks -5.5
The game script is ideal. The second most is the Panthers surrendering 27 fantasy points per game to the running back position. And the Panthers allowing four rushing touchdowns is tied for the most.
Attack the Panthers’ defense with Kenneth Walker. In Week 1, Walker averaged 5.3 yards per carry against Aaron Donald and the Los Angeles Rams. Last week, he only averaged 2.5 yards per carry. He did have two rushing touchdowns.
Seattle is averaging 56.5 plays per game. There is concern about the status of D.K. Metcalf, which would make Seattle even more dependent on the run.
Attack the defense playing on a short week with the running back, who is on the field for 61.79% of the offensive snaps. In case you were wondering, Zach Charbonnet is on the field for 25.20% of the offensive snaps. Deejay Dallas’ snap share is 16.26%.
Defenses to Attack with the Tight End
The Seattle Seahawks are giving up 11.5 fantasy points and, in two weeks, have allowed eight touchdowns by the tight end position.
The Arizona Cardinals have allowed a whopping 12 touchdowns to the tight end position and an average of 10.9 fantasy points.
That means for you tight end streamers, attack with Hayden Hurst from the Carolina Panthers or my favorite Dallas Cowboys tight end, Jake Ferguson or Luke Schoonmaker. Schoonmaker was the preseason first game darling but has fallen off a bit. He has a 32.41% target share. He does have a 100% touchdown percentage, but that’s because he has one target, one reception, one yard, and one touchdown.
Ferguson, on the other hand, has a 64.83% snap share. Ferguson has had 11 targets, with one touchdown on five receptions.
Good Luck, and let me know what sexy defenses you are attacking this week. And for more Razzball goodness, come on over and check it out!
