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Don’t be scared, the mighty Jefferson is on a break and will return soon. I’m the pinch hitter.
The Week 9 games had some surprises, both pleasant and unpleasant. Of the 14 games heading into Monday night, 8 were separated by one score. The Panthers won due in no small part to a Bryce Young-led comeback; a sentence I was beginning to think I would never write. Let’s dig into some Week 9 takeaways, and look ahead to Week 10.
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Quarterbacks
Player: Aaron Rodgers
Game: New York Jets vs. Houston Texans
Stats: 22/32, 211 passing yards, 3 TDs
I was watching this game and at the end of the first half, I remarked on Twitter, “The Jets have 9 net yards passing. It is apparently the 1920s.” The Jets were down 7-0 and lethargic on offense. Someone gave a hell of a halftime speech because a different team showed up for the second half. Rodgers looked as sharp as he has all season, and peppered his two best weapons in the passing game, Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. I don’t know if this is the beginning of a new chapter for the Jets, but one can hope. With nice matchups coming up at Arizona and vs. Indianapolis before the Week 12 bye, Rodgers at least is of interest in 2-QB leagues again.
Player: Joe Burrow
Game: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Stats: 27/39, 255 passing yards, 5 TDs, 11 rushing yards
Pending the Monday Night game, Joe Burrow is our fantasy QB 1 for Week 9 with his second (!) 5 TD game of the 2024 season in a game the Bengals had to have for their hopes to contend. And this was done without Tee Higgins and without a major contribution from Ja’Marr Chase (7 receptions, 43 yards). My first inclination is, “Well, it’s the Raiders,” but their passing defense came in allowing 189 yards per game and only 10 touchdowns in 8 games. Heading into their Week 12 bye, they have a rematch at Baltimore (Burrow’s other 5 TD game in 2024) before a tough matchup in Los Angeles against the Chargers.
Notables:
C.J. Stroud Thursday Night’s other QB is heading in a different direction, and to be fair, losing both Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs was not in the plan, but Stroud had his third consecutive week under 15 points in fantasy – reports have Collins returning Week 10 vs. Detroit, then they’re at Dallas, vs. Tennessee, and at Jacksonville before their bye.
Lamar Jackson is steamrolling to NFL MVP number 3: the Ravens dismantled one of the NFL’s better defenses and Jackson had 3 TDs passing to go with 280 yards passing, both season highs against the Broncos. Pyrrhic victory: the Broncos held Jackson to 4 rushing yards. Up next: the rematch at Cincinnati, then at Pittsburgh, at the Chargers in L.A., then vs. Philadelphia before their bye. If Lamar was mortal, I’d be worried about those last three. Lamar is not mortal.
Justin Herbert is rounding into some semblance of the QB2 I hoped he’d be on draft day against a top-half passing defense in Cleveland as he had his second straight 2 TD game and has passed for at least 279 yards in three straight games. Next up: a tough Tennessee D in L.A. then three straight PHAT matchups – at home vs. Cincinnati and Baltimore then a roadie at Atlanta.
If you haven’t seen it, go find the Drake Maye highlight near the end of the 4th quarter yesterday. I will not spoil it for you – it is too special of a play. Needless to say, I did not expect this Patriot team to be much fun in 2024, but I love Maye, especially with 95 rushing yards. He’s sloppy with the ball – three turnovers vs. Tennessee including a game-ender in overtime, but that team has nothing to lose letting him learn on the job.
Running Backs
Player: Derrick Henry
Game: Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos
Stats: 23 carries, 106 rushing yards, 27 receiving yards, 2 TDs
All hail the King. He is smoking my best expectations for him coming into his age 30 year. Nine games in he has 1,052 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs and is leading all running backs in PPR fantasy points per game. This guy is old school, and I love every minute of it. The next four matchups are tough: vs. Cincinnati, at Pittsburgh, at the Chargers in L.A., then vs. Philadelphia. See my Lamar Jackson blurb.
Player: Chase Brown
Game: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Stats: 27 carries, 120 rushing yards, 5 receptions, 37 receiving yards, 1 TD
If you were wondering what Chase Brown might look like if Zack Moss got out of the way. And the Bengals played the Raiders. And ran 71 offensive plays. Look no further. The Raiders’ run defense is friendlier than their pass defense. Doesn’t matter, the Bengals shredded both. I don’t expect Brown to have as easy a go in the matchups at Baltimore (7th toughest in fantasy vs. running backs) and at the Chargers in L.A. (3rd toughest) heading to the bye week, and I’d keep an eye on Zack Moss’ injury, although I believe Brown is taking over that backfield.
Notables:
Saquon Barkley also had a “WTF was THAT?” highlight on Sunday: search for “reverse hurdle” to get a glimpse at a move out of a martial arts movie without the special effects. Barkley’s renaissance in Philadelphia keeps getting better. Next up: a nice matchup at Dallas, then a couple of tougher ones (vs. Washington and at the Rams in L.A.) before the Main Event at Baltimore and Derrick Henry.
De’Von Achane is becoming a “Takeaways” regular: he had 20 touches including 8 receptions, 121 scrimmage yards, and 2 touchdowns, and was a big reason that Miami kept the score close in a narrow 30-27 loss in Buffalo. Last team with the ball wins. This team flashed their 2023 form yesterday – it’s been a while. I thought the receivers would be happy to see Tua, but Achane has been the biggest beneficiary. The next three are nice: the Rams in L.A. then at home vs. Las Vegas and New England.
Alvin Kamara is the last man standing in New Orleans after Chris Olave sustained his second concussion of 2024 against the Panthers. Kamara had 215 scrimmage yards and 6 receptions against the friendliest run defense in the NFL. I don’t feel as good about the matchups vs. Atlanta (13th-ranked defense vs. running backs in fantasy) and Cleveland (5th) before the bye.
Speaking of Cleveland, J.K. Dobbins had his best game of 2024 against them with 105 scrimmage yards and two TDs. He has been a nice surprise coming off a run of bad injury luck since 2020. I don’t like his schedule much down the stretch of the fantasy regular season, but if he and we make it to the fantasy playoffs, his Week 15-17 schedule has two nice matchups vs. Tampa Bay (25th-ranked fantasy defense vs. running backs) and at New England (28th).
Rhamondre Stevenson had 54 scrimmage yards vs. Tennessee. I know, right? Proving yardage is not everything, he also had 5 receptions and 2 TDs. And remember that Drake Maye highlight I told you to look up? Look for Stevenson in that as well. I’m always worried about touchdown-dependent players, but Stevenson is arguably the Patriots’ best offensive weapon. The upcoming schedule isn’t great going into the Week 14 bye, but he has sweet matchups in Weeks 15 (at Arizona ranked 27th vs. running backs in fantasy) and 16 (at Buffalo, ranked 31st).
With the pending arrival of Jonathan Brooks (I mean, c’mon already!), Chuba Hubbard’s stock has taken a hit. But Sunday against the Saints, he had 72 scrimmage yards, 2 receptions, and 2 TDs. Not bad for a guy we got no questions about on the Start/Sit stream (I believe) for Week 9. Panthers coach Dave Canales teasing Brooks’ debut in Week 10, but Chuba’s been a fine flex for 2024 and I don’t expect he’ll be completely sidelined for the Panthers’ game in Munich against the Giants before their bye week.
Wide Receivers
Player: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Game: Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams
Stats: 7 receptions, 180 receiving yards, 2 TDs, 13 targets
RazzballNFL’s own Sky Guasco said repeatedly that JSN’s targets have been pretty solid and that JSN was due. He arrived like a wrecking ball. JSN had 43 receptions for 388 yards and 1 TD in eight games before Sunday but this was a performance for the ages and he was potent as the Hawks were in comeback mode frequently in Sunday’s game. This is the performance JSN stans have been waiting for since he left Ohio St. And we’re not afforded many victory laps in our business, but Sky and Derek Favret, who also recommended JSN several times on our show yesterday, can take a well-deserved bow. The Hawks are off Week 10 before coming back to a pretty favorable schedule to slot receivers down the stretch: the tough ones are at the Jets in Week 13, the Packers in Seattle in Week 15, and at the Bears in Week 17. The 49ers, Cardinals, and Vikings all allow more than 14 PPR points per game to the slot.
Player: Zay Flowers
Game: Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos
Stats: 5 receptions, 127 receiving yards, 2 TDs, 6 targets
The parade of Ravens in Week 9 continues. Flowers’ productivity is impressive on its own, but more so considering Lamar Jackson only threw 19 passes. Someone asked me if Flowers was still the WR1 in Baltimore with the pending arrival of Diontae Johnson. I think the answer is yes, although there will be a low floor to that. Flowers has a high enough ceiling that he’s a solid WR2 in lineups. The next three weeks will be unfavorable matchups, but like I said about Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, you run the top Ravens in your lineups every week. They seem to rise to most occasions.
Notables:
Garrett Wilson I think the connection between Aaron Rodgers is solidifying. And I think there are enough targets to go around: Rodgers is averaging 35 passing attempts a game. Wilson is averaging over 10 targets a week and I think there are enough to keep both he and Davante Adams happy, and I think we saw that Thursday as Adams and Wilson were targeted on 21 of Rodgers’ 32 attempts. The Texans are a reasonably good matchup for passing, but not great. I love the upcoming matchup at Arizona (24th-ranked vs. wide receivers in fantasy) and then vs. Indianapolis heading into the bye.
Demarcus Robinson was a name I just couldn’t wrap my head around in 2023, but he kept scoring touchdowns down the stretch for the Rams and was an unexpected benefit in fantasy. Don’t look now, but he’s had 4 TDs in the last two weeks including 2 yesterday in Seattle. One was a highlight-worthy beauty, a one-handed grab for the winning TD in overtime with Riq Woolen draped all over him. He was the beneficiary when Puka Nacua got thrown out of the game for retaliating against Tyrel Dodson. I still only look at Robinson as a deep flex, but I think he’s a good preempted add. Once they get past Miami next week, the next three matchups are WR-friendly.
Courtland Sutton was the player of the game for Denver in Baltimore: not only did he have 7 receptions for 122 yards receiving, he also threw for their only touchdown, to quarterback Bo Nix. I’d avoid Sutton if I could in tough the upcoming matchup at Kansas City in Week 10 and temper expectations for Week 12 at Las Vegas, but I love the Week 11 matchup vs. Atlanta and the Week 13 matchup vs. Cleveland.
Besides the concussion Chris Olave suffered in the Saints game at Carolina, the Falcons’ Drake London suffered a hip pointer and oblique strain in the matchup vs. Dallas. Keep eyes open for reports leading up to each team’s Week 10 games.
I want to throw out Cedric Tillman and Jerry Jeudy of the Browns who were watches for me in the matchup vs. the Los Angeles Chargers. Each receiver had 11 targets: Tillman hauled in 6 for 75 yards and the Browns only touchdown and Jeudy caught 7 for 73 yards. The Browns bye is in Week 10, but they have a great matchup in Week 11, and I’m fine flexing them against anyone, even the tough Week 12-14 matchups (vs. Pittsburgh, at Denver, and at Pittsburgh) as long as Jameis Winston is starting.
Tight Ends
Player: Mike Gesicki
Game: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Stats: 5 receptions, 100 receiving yards, 2 TDs, 6 targets
One of the Week 9 drumbeats I’ve heard today was, “Mike Gesicki is a start if Tee Higgins is out.” The theory has not been disproven the last two weeks as Higgins has been out and Gesicki has had 14 targets, 12 receptions, 173 yards receiving, and 2 TDs. I’m sold. The next two weeks are at Baltimore (28th vs. tight ends in fantasy) and at the Chargers in L.A. (21st). But be warned: the floor is low.
Notables:
I cannot wait for the Tampa Bay at Kansas City game tonight. Two top tight ends (Cade Otton and Travis Kelce) are in action.
Josh Oliver On the weekend T.J. Hockenson returned to the Vikings’ lineup, Josh Oliver has the second-best fantasy game of his career: 5 receptions, 58 yards receiving, and a TD. It was good to see Hockenson back.
Taysom Hill had 9 touches for 60 yards and a TD on a day the Saints had Alvin Kamara and a practice squad player at running back. I think Hill has value in managed leagues given that scenario. I think flexing him vs. Atlanta is a good idea if this holds. We’ll talk again after that.
Theo Johnson set career highs in targets and receiving yards and scored his first NFL touchdown vs. Washington. I still don’t think he belongs on rosters in redraft, but he’s coming along.
Ja’Tavion Sanders is rosterable as a bye week fill-in or injury replacement in 12+ team leagues. He has set career highs in receiving yards for a game in 3 of the last 4 weeks, although the 4th week was a dud. I feel confident as a replacement for a player on Week 10 bye when the Panthers face the Giants in Germany.
Bye Week Update
We get the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers (with CMC?) back in Week 10 while the Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Las Vegas Raiders, and Seattle Seahawks have their byes.
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