NFL Week 11 Takeaways

I enjoyed a refreshing Sunday of NFL football with great games played throughout the day. Let’s review the takeaways from Week 11 as we look forward to Thanksgiving and Week 12.

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Titans at Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence redeemed himself after Week 10’s disaster finishing as the QB1 of Week 11. Lawrence completed 24/32 for 262 yards with two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns. Calvin Ridley returned to relevance with a team-high nine targets, catching seven balls for 103 yards and two TDs. Ridley was WR1 for Week 11. Travis Etienne Jr took a backseat rushing 14 times for 52 yards and catching three passes for seven yards.

The Titans scored their first points at the end of the third quarter following a 43-yard receiving TD by DeAndre Hopkins. He would finish the game with four catches for 59 yards. Will Levis passed for 158 yards and two touchdowns. Derrick Henry rushed 10 times for a mere 38 yards.

Takeaway:

We saw the Zay Jones effect for the Jags passing offense. In three games where Jones has played a full game, Jacksonville has scored at least 25 points, and Lawrence has looked his best. Lawrence is 1-4 against the Texans as the Jags travel to Houston, who are middle of the pack defensively against QBs, RBs, and WRs. The Texans have allowed five receiving TDs to WRs, which is tied for the second-best in the NFL. Houston is most vulnerable against TEs, allowing the fifth most points and the most receptions with 72. Evan Engram should see plenty of targets, making him a potential top-five TE in Week 12. This game has huge implications for the playoffs, which increases my confidence in Lawrence and company in Week 12.
We will get another battle of rookie QBs as Tennessee will host the Panthers. Carolina allows the fourth-fewest yards per game to QBs, the fifth-fewest fantasy points to WRs, and the third-fewest yards per game to TEs. Carolina does allow the second most fantasy points to RBs. After Levis’ breakout four-touchdown game against Atlanta in Week 8, the Titans’ offense has scored only three touchdowns. In a full slate of games in Week 12, I would not start any Titans.

Bears at Lions

This early game produced fantasy goodness as the highest-point total game of Week 11. Chicago’s defense is most susceptible to opposing QBs, allowing the fourth-most points, but Jared Goff was 23/35 for 236 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. The Lions’ rushing attack was led by David Montgomery’s 12 carries for 76 yards and the game-winning TD. Jahmyr Gibbs added eight rushes for 36 yards with one TD and six catches to 59 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown posted eight receptions for 77 yards and one TD on a team-high 11 targets.

The Bears welcomed the return of Justin Fields, who completed 16/23 for 169 yards with one TD and 104 rushing yards on 18 carries. Fields 104 rushing yards are the most rushing yards by a QB this season and became the second QB to rush over 100 yards in a game this season since Lamar Jackson’s 101 yards in Week 3. DJ Moore quickly returned to fantasy relevance after seeing a team-high nine targets finishing with seven grabs for 96 yards and a touchdown. All three Bears RBs were active, and it was Khalil Herbert who saw the most carries (16) but totaled 35 yards.

Takeaway:

The Lions will host the Packers on Thanksgiving. Green Bay allows the eighth-fewest points to QBs, and sixth-fewest to WRs. The Packers allow the 11th-most points to RBs, so we should expect a heavy dosage of Montgomery and Gibbs. The last time they played, Montgomery rushed 32 times for 121 yards and three touchdowns.
Chicago will travel to Minnesota for Monday Night Football. The Vikings’ defense strength is stopping the run as they allow the eighth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. Thus, I am fading the Bears RB committee. Minnesota is middle of the pack against QBs, RBs, and WRs, which makes Fields and Moore solid starts.

Cardinals at Texans

C.J. Stroud was 27/37 for 336 yards with two TDs and a season-high three interceptions. Stroud’s 336 passing yards were a Week-11 high, and has strung together three consecutive games over 300 yards. Stroud is one of two QBs (Tua Tagovailoa) with five games of at least 300 passing yards this season. For the second week, Devin Singletary handled the backfield duties rushing 22 times for 112 yards with a score. Tank Dell is emerging as Stroud’s favorite playmaker as he caught eight passes for 149 yards with a TD on 10 targets. Nico Collins drew a team-high 11 targets and posted seven receptions for 65 yards.

Kyler Murray still needs time to get acclimated to the Cardinals’ new scheme but is trending in the right direction for fantasy purposes. Murray completed 20/30 for 214 yards with one touchdown and one interception, adding 51 rushing yards and a rushing score. Murray’s rushing prowess makes him a top-10 QB for the rest of the season. James Connor rushed 14 times for 62 yards, and Greg Dortch led WRs with six passes for 76 yards. Trey McBride caught five passes for 43 yards on seven targets.

Takeaway:

The Texans will host Jacksonville in what could be for the division title. The Jaguars pass defense is vulnerable, allowing seventh-most fantasy points, sixth-most passing TDs, and sixth-most yards to opposing QBs. The Jags give up the fourth-most points and sixth-most yards to TEs. Stroud and all his pass catchers are must-starts. Dalton Shultz should be involved often and early. Jacksonville allows the fourth-fewest points to RBs on the year, making Singletary a low RB2/high RB3 if Dameon Pierce sits again.
The LA Rams will travel to the Red Sea to face Murray and the Cardinals. The Rams are average against QBs and give up the 12th-most rushing yards to QBs. Murry’s arrow is pointing up. McBride should eat as the Rams give up the second-most points to TEs this season. Like the Texans, LA Rams have only given up five passing TDs to WRs, which is second-best in the NFL.

Chargers at Packers

The Packers lost Aaron Jones early into the game to injury but relied on Jordan Love. Against the second-worst pass defense, Love was 27/40 for a career-high 322 yards and two touchdowns. Romeo Doubs scored the game-winning touchdown, finishing with five receptions for 53 yards. Doubs is tied for third in the NFL with seven receiving touchdowns. Jayden Reed rushed for 46 yards with a score and caught four balls for 47 yards.

Keenan Allen was a target hog with a Week 11-high 16 targets, finishing with 10 receptions for 116 yards and one TD. Allen leads the NFL with 11.3 targets per game. Justin Herbert was 21/36 for 260 passing yards with two TDs and led the Chargers with 73 rushing yards. Austin Ekeler rushed for 61 yards on 10 carries and caught two passes for six yards but lost a costly fumble inside the five-yard line. Donald Parham Jr got the spot start, finishing with four catches for 57 yards on six targets.

Takeaway:

Green Bay travel to Ford Field for an NFC North Thanksgiving showdown. Detroit allows the eight-most points to QBs and the 10th-most to WRs. If Jones misses another game, expect Love to throw at least 40 times, giving him a QB2 floor. Someone has to catch his passes as Reed, Doubs, and Christian Watson are all averaging nearly 5 targets over their last four games, making the Packers WRs dart throws. Give me Doubs for another TD in this one.
The Ravens fly across the country for a Sunday Night Football matchup against the LA Chargers. Baltimore is the second-best ranked fantasy defense against opposing QBs. They allow the second-fewest points to WRs, the fifth-fewest to TEs, and the 13th-fewest to RBs. This will be a true test for the Chargers offense, but you have to start Herbert, Allen, and Ekeler.

Buccaneers at 49ers

San Francisco put their three-game losing streak behind them and are looking like real-life and fantasy juggernauts. Brock Purdy’s midseason struggles appear behind him as he completed 21/25 for 333 and three TDs. Purdy was the QB2 this week. Brandon Aiyuk had five grabs for Week 11-high 156 yards and one TD. George Kittle was the TE1 this week after drawing a team-high nine targets, securing eight receptions for 89 yards and one score. Christian McCaffrey rushed for 78 yards on 21 attempts and caught five passes for 25 yards and one TD. McCaffrey has caught at least five passes in three consecutive games.

The Bucs trailed from the start, forcing Baker Mayfield to throw 45 times. Mike Evans was the recipient of 12 targets, totaling five catches for 43 yards and one TD. Rachaad White rushed nine times for 30 yards with a rushing score while catching six passes for 28 yards.

Takeaway:

San Francisco will play in the evening Thanksgiving game in Seattle. The Seahawks are the seventh friendliest defense to RBs, allowing the seventh most passing yards and the third most rushing TDs to RBs. McCaffrey is in line to be the RB1 yet again. Seattle is average against the pass, so Purdy and his pass catchers will be great starts as this offense is clicking on all cylinders.
Tampa Bay will face the Colts at Lucas Oil Field, who are coming off a Bye Week. Indianapolis gives up the fourth-most points to opposing RBs and second-most rushing TDs to RBs. Expect a bounce-back game from White. The Colts have a middling pass defense, so Evans could have a breakout game.

Notables:

Saquan Barkley finished as RB1 in Week 11 with 14 carries for 83 yards and catches for 57 yards with two receiving touchdowns. He is the Giants offense.
Somehow Tommy DeVito finished as a top-5 QB in Week 11, completing 18/26 for 246 yards and three TDs. Who saw that coming?
Brian Robinson rushed for 73 yards and pulled in seven catches for 58 yards. Robinson and Barkley were the only RBs to rush for at least 50 yards and have at least 50 receiving yards in Week 11.
Tyreek Hill caught 10 passes for 146 yards with one TD. Hill leads the NFL with 9 receiving TDs and is one of three players to have six games with 100 receiving yards. Hill is nearly pacing for his ambitious goal of 2,000 receiving yards.
Davante Adams caught a 46-yard touchdown pass, finishing the game as the team leader with 13 targets. Adams caught seven passes for 82 yards. This is the first time he has had 13 targets in consecutive games since Week 3 and 4.
Jaylen Warren led the Steelers rushing attack, again, on only nine carries for 129 yards and one score. I was wrong to fade him against the Browns. However, it’s time for the “Free Warren” campaign in Pittsburgh.
David Njoku saw a career-high and Week 11 TE-high 15 targets from the Browns’ new starter Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Njoku will be a top-10 TE for the rest of the season DTR under center.
Tony Pollard rushed 12 times for 61 yards and one TD. This was Pollard’s first TD since Week 1 when he scored two touchdowns. Pollard will face the Commanders on Thanksgiving, who’ve allowed only 5 rushing TDs to RBs.
Cooper Kupp left in the second quarter with an ankle injury and did not return. I wouldn’t be surprised if he only plays a couple more games this season.
Following Kupp’s departure, Puka Nacua immediately caught a TD and led the Rams with five receptions for 70 yards. Nacua is back in the WR1 conversation.
Kenneth Walker III left the game with an oblique injury and could miss the Seahawks’ Thanksgiving game.
Zach Charbonnet filled in for Walker with 15 carries for 47 yards and caught six passes for 22 yards. Charbonnet was a top handcuff for a reason and if he’s not rostered, he should be the number one waiver priority.
Josh Allen got his OC fired and magically remembered how to play QB, throwing three TDs and 275 yards against the Jets’ fifth-ranked fantasy defensive against QBs.
Courtland Sutton extended his receiving TD streak to five consecutive games with the game-winning TD catch on Sunday Night Football, making it the longest active streak in the NFL. Sutton ranks second among WRs with eight TDs.

Bye Week Update

There are no teams with a Bye in Week 12. We have a full slate of games for the first time since Week 8.
Week 11 Bye Week team schedule includes Saints at Falcons, Patriots at Giants, and Buccaneers at Colts.

🚨 Red Zone TD Scoring Percentage Update 🚨

Miami leads the NFL with 74%. Rounding out the top 10 are LA Chargers (67%), Buffalo (66%), Baltimore (65%), Chicago (62%), San Franciso (60%), Indianapolis (60%), Cincinnati (59%), Washington (59%) and LA Rams (58%).
The bottom five teams in Red Zone TD Scoring Percentages are the NY Jets (26%), Tennessee (34%), NY Giants (39%), Jacksonville (46%), and Tampa Bay (46%).

Thanks for your time checking out Week 11 takeaways. While you are here, check out more fantasy goodness at Razzball. Follow me on Twitter/X @Jefferson__21.

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