What. The Hell. Happened?
Touchdowns to AJ Brown? DeVante Parker? Trevor Davis? Brandon Bolden? Ito Smith? Ricky Seals-Jones? Troymaine Pope? AJ Brown (again)?
This was the start to Week 4’s Sunday slate that granted DFS players absolutely no pleasure whatsoever. Seriously? I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a laundry list of names that I literally would never have dreamed of drafting, and I really don’t think I have to re-evaluate my strategy.
But that’s the great thing about daily fantasy. Unless there was some lunatic who drafted Trevor Davis in hopes of a 60-yard end around score – and apologies for calling you a lunatic if you were that person – then everyone suffered the same result and it likely didn’t affect your teams’ chances of winning too, too much.
Either way, let’s hope for a more reasonable output in Week 5.
Because DraftKings and FanDuel offer different prices for certain players and have a different cash total overall, one option may be better for a certain app than for the other app, and that will be noted. The first price is their DraftKings cost, and the second is the FanDuel cost.
Quarterback
Kyler Murray (FANDUEL ONLY – $7,400)
The rookie averages 20.5 FPPG on DraftKings, and so it makes sense that he would be the fifth-most expensive quarterback during a week that his Cardinals take on the struggling Bengals. Now take a look at his FanDuel ranking. Not only is he not in the top five most expensive quarterbacks, but he’s not even in the top ten. Or top 12. There, he’s the No. 14 quarterback. Against a team that allows two passing touchdowns per game and has only picked off opposing quarterbacks twice all season, but that also can put up some points of their own through the air, this one could be a fast-paced contests where Murray really shows out.
Jacoby Brissett ($5,300/$7,300)
The game with the highest total – a staggering 56.5 points – almost promises that a lot of offense is coming. There are never any definites, but matchups with the Chiefs are as close to a guaranteed offensive contest as you can get in the NFL. Brissett’s value on FanDuel is similar to Kyler Murray’s, which makes a lot of sense given their high-upside matchups and their play styles. But whereas Murray is $6,700 on DraftKings, Brissett is just $5,300 and smushed in between the miserable duo of Kirk Cousins (11.8 FPPG) and Teddy Bridgewater (10.3 FPPG). Show Brissett (20.5 FPPG) some love, DraftKings! At this value, it’s almost a no-brainer pick.
Others: DeShaun Watson ($6,700/$8,000); Jameis Winston ($6,200/$7,600)
Running Back
Most of the guys I’m going with this week are established stars (Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, David Johnson), but there are some decent budget picks to roll with. However, I’d lean heavily on established running backs this week due to the weirdness of several matchups and uncertainty in different backfields.
David Montgomery ($5,200/$5,700)
Montgomery has not looked like the running back that many were drafting him to be this year, but his performance has come with odd circumstances: namely that Mitchell Trubisky has, um, SUCKED. But our savior Chase Daniel (words I never thought I’d utter) has arrived and should bring some life to this Chicago offense. The Raiders are a good team to get off on the right foot against, and though they are better against the pass, the Bears’ defense should hold them in check meaning that we could see a run-heavy game script. Dalvin Cook exploded against Oakland in Week 3, so they’re definitely vulnerable given the right scenario. The London setting may provide just that for Chicago and allow Montgomery to finally pop off.
Miles Sanders ($4,500/$6,000)
The Eagles haven’t lived up to everyone’s lofty expectations, and definitely haven’t dominated every game like they have the talent to do. However, they still have been able to lean heavily on the ground game. They’re in the top ten in the NFL in rush attempts, and have converted that into around 120 yards per game on the ground and five rushing TDs. Jordan Howard’s Week 4 performance helped to boost that number, but Miles Sanders’s first very good performance was kind of lost in the glamour of Howard’s three-touchdown game. He played very efficiently and was still able to put up decent numbers despite his absence from the receiving game. The Jets, meanwhile, could concede a large lead to the Eagles, and they allow a rushing touchdown per game. In addition, they’ve allowed 18 receptions to running backs through three games this year. Sanders is another rookie who could finally break out in Week 5.
Others: Derrick Henry ($6,000/$6,700); Mark Ingram (more worth it on DraftKings – $6,300/$7,500);
Wide Receiver
KeeSean Johnson ($3,500/$4,600)
Here he is… the guy that either does something or does absolutely nothing given his chance after injuries. With Christian Kirk and Damiere Byrd looking like their going to miss Sunday’s game, Johnson looks to be next in line to receive some of those carries. And if Kyler Murray is going to have a big day like I think he will, someone’s gotta catch some of these balls! Johnson has produced at a low rate for the offense, but Christian Kirk has been a major part of the high-speed Arizona attack. If Johnson makes the most of this opportunity, he could replicate some of Kirk’s big performances and be a steal for his very low price.
Alshon Jeffery ($5,900/$6,700)
Here’s what the number one receiver for each team has done against the Jets so far this season.
- Week 1: John Brown (7 catches, 123 yards, 1 touchdown)
- Week 2: Odell Beckham (6 catches, 161 yards, 1 touchdown)
- Week 3: Who’s the WR1 for the Pats? Let’s just look at both…
- Josh Gordon (6 catches, 83 yards)
- Julian Edelman (7 catches, 62 yards, 1 touchdown)
Philly should soar in this one, and the guy that can really put this game out of reach early can be Alshon. He’s still one of Carson Wentz’s favorite red zone targets, and is always an option when Carson needs a reliable set of hands (save for the play that, well, ended their season last year.)
Others: Michael Thomas (More worth it on DraftKings – $6,600/$7,700); TY Hilton (if active – $6,200/$7,400) → If Hilton inactive, then Zach Pascal ($4,800/$5,500)
Tight End
I promised I’d never go against my strategy and not pick George Kittle, but that strategy hasn’t really worked out. So this week…
Tyler Eifert ($3,300/$4,600)
The Arizona Cardinals are abysmal against tight ends. I don’t know if it’s just random or if their game plan is to completely ignore them, but they allow almost 20 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. The next highest in the league is nowhere close to that total. But it’s not only the matchup that makes this a juicy matchup. Eifert has been the most-targeted receiver in the red zone for Cincy (although it’s a very small sample size), and this should be a pass-heavy game. AJ Green and John Ross are both out, as is Patrick Peterson, so take advantage of this matchup while you can.
Others: George Kittle ($5,300/$6,500); Eric Ebron ($4,000/$5,300)
Defense
New England Patriots ($4,300/$5,500)
Have the Patriots officially become a matchup-proof fantasy defense? Well, we won’t find out this week, as the Redskins are the next unfortunate victim. I seriously feel bad for them. Like, are any fans excited to watch this game at all? Do they have any legitimate chance at even being close? This is like David vs. Goliath, but this time, David has a blindfold on. The Pats have a chance to once again be not only the highest-scoring fantasy defense, but the highest scorer in all of fantasy football for Week 5.
