Week 12 DraftKings Main Slate – Optimal Lineup Plays
First, I hope everyone had a Happy Thanksgiving and enjoyed the holiday with your friends, family, and, of course, football. I’m thankful to the handful of people that read this column every week. I’d also be thankful if this column helps you win your DFS columns every week! Week 11 was a largely successful week, with a few very unfortunate injuries to big-name players. I’ll always be thankful when the list of hits is larger than the list of misses for the week!
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By the time the Week 12 main slate kicks off on Sunday, there will have already been four games played, with three on Thanksgiving and the first black Friday game. With these four games and the usual SNF, MNF games that takes 12 teams off the main slate this week. That first Black Friday game is also at MetLife stadium. As someone who lives close to MetLife stadium, that stadium might be empty with Black Friday traffic having a football game right next to a mall on the biggest shopping day of the year. Anyhow, I digress as this article isn’t about the disaster that getting to and from MetLife stadium is.
Week 12 is another weak slate, in my opinion. I feel you either need to pay up or all the way down at the QB position. The RBs I like in Week 12 are in the middle price tier. The WRs are a little pricey, but do have some cheaper options I like to offset the cost. Let’s ride into Week 12!
Hit: CJ Stroud, Justin Fields, Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray, Brian Robinson, Devin Singletary, Jerome Ford, Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Mike Evans, Tank Dell, DJ Moore, Jayden Reed, Rondale Moore, Dalton Kincaid, Trey McBride, Donald Parham, Michael Mayer, Dolphins, Steelers
Miss: Jared Goff, Marquise Brown, Kyle Philips, Zay Jones, Luke Musgrave, Jets
N/A: De’Von Achane, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Jones, Leonard Fournette, Jalen Guyton,
QB
Josh Allen $8100 (@ PHI) – Josh Allen looked good in his first game after the dismissal of Ken Dorsey. He threw for three touchdowns against the Jets, who have been stingy with opposing QBs. Now, he gets the Eagles whose weakness defensively is their secondary. Mahomes also had 38 rushing yards against the Eagles, which bodes well for Allen, too.
Jalen Hurts $8300 (vs. BUF) – Jalen Hurts was largely propped up in Week 11 from two rushing touchdowns in an otherwise forgettable game. Give credit to the KC defense. In Week 12, Hurts gets the Bills banged-up defense. This game has the highest point total of the week, and Hurts should be able to have a strong bounce-back game.
CJ Stroud $7700 (vs. JAX) – Jacksonville is another defense that is weaker through the air than the ground. It is very difficult to run on the Jaguars. CJ Stroud had an up-and-down performance in Week 11, but I don’t love many options on this slate.
Gardner Minshew $5100 (vs. TB) – If I’m paying down at the QB position, I’m using Minshew. Minshew is coming off his bye and now gets a Tampa Bay defense that struggles against the pass. I like the sneaky upside of Minshew post-bye.
RB
START OF THE WEEK: Jerome Ford $5600 (@ DEN) – Denver has been awful at stopping the run all season long. Jerome Ford is in line for a large workload against the worst-run defense. START HIM!
D’Andre Swift $6800 (vs. BUF) – D’Andre Swift looked great Monday night against a tough KC defense. The Bills rank 23rd vs. opposing RBs. This game figures to be a shootout, so I’d like to get a piece of the Eagles rushing attack here.
Kyren Williams $6600 (@ ARI) – I did the same thing last week with Achane at the same price point and got burned. I am a little hesitant to go back to the well of an RB fresh off IR, but the matchup is too good. The Rams released Darrell Henderson, meaning they feel confident enough that Kyren Williams is ready to go.
Jaylen Warren $5400 (@ CIN) – Jaylen Warren went 9/129/1 rushing in Week 11 in a game they lost against the Browns. The Browns have a strong run defense, too. Matt Canada has finally been fired. I expect them to feed Jaylen Warren this week, as he is clearly the better RB.
Contrarian Play: Derrick Henry $6400 (vs. CAR) – Derrick Henry is coming off back-to-back down performances against two defenses that are tough to run against. Recency bias will suppress his ownership percentage against the Panthers. The Panthers have been dreadful against the run all season long, although they have been a little better the past few weeks. I still expect a bounce back from King Henry.
WR
Stefon Diggs $8800 (@ PHI) – Stefon Diggs is coming off back-to-back duds. His first and really only two of the season. He is likely very unhappy with his usage over the past two weeks. I expect the squeaky wheel treatment this week in a game with the highest implied total. The Eagles have also been weak against opposing WRs, creating the perfect storm for a Diggs blowup spot.
Puka Nacua $7600 (@ ARI) – Cooper Kupp left Week 11’s game with an ankle injury and did not return. Puka was the obvious beneficiary of this injury and led the team with 5/70/1 against the Seahawks. The Week 12 status of Cooper Kupp is unknown but Puka could be in line for a monster day against the Cardinals if Kupp is out or limited.
Mike Evans $7400 (@ IND) – Mike Evans just continues to produce no matter what. He is well on his way to another 1,000-yard season. The Colts secondary is middle of the road but this game has sneaky potential to feature a high score.
Adam Thielen $7300 (@ TEN) – Does Bryce Young know he can throw to guys other than Adam Thielen? Maybe don’t tell him and start Thielen Week 12 against the Titans’ heavy pass funnel defense.
Contrarian/GPP Play: Nico Collins $6400 (vs. JAX) – Tank Dell has been in another stratosphere for the last three weeks. His ownership percentage will be much higher than Nico Collins for Week 12. If I’m looking at a contrarian spot that could offer huge upside I’m going to use Nico Collins with all the hype on Tank Dell.
Josh Downs $4800 (vs. TB) – Josh Downs should be healthier after the bye week after battling a knee issue. Now he gets the Tampa Bay secondary, which is very beatable. This is a solid value at this price.
Cheaper options/Lineup Filler/Dart Throws: AT Perry $3200 (@ ATL), If Higgins is out Trenton Irwin $3200 (vs. PIT), Greg Dortch $3300 (vs. LAR), Robert Woods $4000 (vs. JAX), Demario Douglas $4400 (@ NYG)
TE
David Njoku $4100 (@ DEN) – My favorite TE play this week. Fresh off a 15-target game, David Njoku gets the worst defense against TEs, the Broncos. DTR is a rookie QB who looks early and often to his safety valve, Njoku. Njoku is a no-brainer for me.
Dalton Kincaid $5300 (@ PHI) – Dalton Kincaid has quickly become one of Josh Allen’s favorite targets. The Eagles do not defend TEs very well. Kincaid has looked matchup-proof but deserves a boost in solid matchups.
Tanner Hudson $2700 (vs. PIT) – If I need to pay down at the position, I’m looking at Tanner Hudson. He’s put together three solid performances in a row and can be a safety blanket for Jake Browning. The Bengals do use three TEs so you never know which one it could be, but I’d be on Hudson.
Contrarian/GPP Play: Pat Freiermuth $2900 (@ CIN) – Pat Freiermuth has a great matchup Week 12 against the Bengals. The Bengals have not been good against TEs thus far. However, there is a lot of risk associated with this play as Freiermuth only saw one target in Week 11, the Steelers just fired their OC, and their passing game has looked abysmal. These factors will likely give Freiermuth a low ownership percentage in a good matchup, which is all we can ask for at the TE position.
D/ST
Broncos $3200 (vs. CLE) – The Broncos’ defense has done a complete 180 from early in the season and have been playing pretty well during their winning streak. They still have their weak points, but they should be able to get to DTR and force some turnovers this week at home.
Chiefs $3100 (@ LV) – The Chiefs defense has been the strength of their team in 2023. Haven’t been able to say that too much during Patrick Mahomes career. They are going to look to rebound from their MNF loss at the expense of Aidan O’Connell and the Raiders.
Cardinals $3000 (vs. LAR) – The Cardinals get Matthew Stafford and the Rams at home in Week 12. Stafford didn’t look sharp in Week 11 and has been prone to sacks and turnover this season.
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For more from TJ and his Razzball content, find him on Twitter @T_Redding28 for lineup updates and additional plays based on weekend updates/injuries
