Playoff Fantasy Rankings and Draft Tips

The NFL regular season is over, but that doesn’t mean your fantasy season needs to end. There are plenty of fantasy leagues available for the NFL playoffs and today I’m going to take you through my rankings and draft advice to help you get a post-season win. As always, if you have any questions, comment below or message me on Instagram @TheFantasyFirstDown. You can also check out my rankings at ffdfantasyfootball.com and you can find my long-form videos on the Fantasy First Down Youtube channel.

There are a number of styles of playoff leagues and it’s important to understand what type you’re in. The core type I’ll be focussing on require you to select a team of players and you can’t change the team once the playoffs start. This naturally means you want to draft the players who will play the most games in the playoffs. There are of course leagues which allow waivers and substitutions and that will increase the value of players on worse teams. But you do ultimately want your best players to be playing in more games in these leagues too. Finally, there are some leagues where you can use each player for one game only. I will be releasing weekly rankings later in the week and I would recommend reading those for these types of leagues.

In order to accurately estimate total fantasy output for each player, I’ll be referring to two components:

Firstly, I estimated the PPG (points per game) for each player. For some, this is their PPG from the season. For others that have had a change in situation, I’ve estimated their PPG myself. Note that I’ve used half-PPR scoring but I will discuss players that move considerably in PPR below.

Secondly, I estimated the amount of games I expect each team will play this playoffs. This is based off the odds from a number of online bookmakers. Note that this is the statistical expected number of games, not an estimate for exactly how many games I think a team will play. Feel free to contact me if you’re interested in either of these calculations and would like to know more.

This is the list of expected games for each team: (Naturally, the Lions and Chiefs are lower as they can’t possibly play four games.)

Quarterbacks:

Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are the stud options in this format. They not only score the most points per game, they are also expected to play the most games each. While they get tougher QB matchups in the first round, that should even out over the course of the playoffs. It is viable to take both ahead of any other player in a draft league. Jalen Hurts comes with some minor injury risk but is the next best option. Patrick Mahomes often comes alive in the playoffs so he could easily outperform this spot if the Chiefs make another deep run. Finally Jayden Daniels has big upside if his Commanders can pull off an upset in Tampa, as he will then get two very good QB matchups.

Running Backs:

Saquon Barkley is a total stud in this format, with his high PPG and expected games he should be the first overall pick in PPR leagues. In half-PPR though, I still favour Jackson and Allen. Derrick Henry is a solid option though I would still take him behind the two QBs and Saquon in all formats. Jahmyr Gibbs is badly hurt by the return of David Montgomery but has the most upside of the remaining players. While I expect he and James Cook to score a similar number of points, Gibbs undoubtedly has a higher ceiling so I wouldn’t fault you for taking him earlier. Bucky Irving is a floor option as it’s hard to see him playing more than two games and he gets tough matchups if he does, but he should be productive in his first game at least. If you’re playing in a draft league, I would target the top four-six then hold off until later in your draft.

Wide Receivers:

This is the ugliest position in this year’s playoffs, with many studs missing out or expected to play less games. In PPR, Amon-Ra St Brown is a viable top-five overall pick and Ladd McConkey jumps into consideration for the top three WRs. In general though, if I’m in a draft league, I’m focusing on other positions knowing there is a lot of depth here. My favorite sleepers are Jalen McMillan and Nico Collins, who could both be great value picks if they can win their first round games. I also think Mike Evans has more upside than most of the top five given the possibility of two favorable matchups. Also note that Zay Flowers is at serious risk of missing at least one game.

Tight Ends:

The late-season Mark Andrews resurgence coupled with Baltimore’s high expected game total and Zay Flowers’ possible injury absence makes the Ravens tight end a strong early pick. I’ve given Travis Kelce a slight PPG boost as we know he usually shows up in the playoffs. Outside these top two and perhaps Sam LaPorta, I’d generally recommend waiting on tight end as there’s not much difference between the remaining options.

Kickers/DSTs:

As always, you should take DSTs and kickers last in drafts, if they’re included at all. I would take a DST first then a kicker in general but see what’s available and use the point projections as a guide.

Good luck in your playoff leagues. If you have any questions, please comment below or contact me on any of my social media accounts.