In my regular Monday post, I paid extra attention to some wide receiver adds that will be beneficial for weeks 14-16. There are a few out there, but for the most part, the ‘start your studs’ theory is the way that I like to go about things. Quarterback is an entirely different beast. I’ve written in the past about quarterback scoring being very bunched up near the middle of the position. So it a good idea to discover weekly outliers in the most important three weeks of the fantasy football season. 

The benefit in preparing for the playoffs around Thanksgiving is that these players that you are stashing likely wouldn’t be available in weeks 13 or 14. Staying ahead of your league-mates is half of the battle. People say fantasy football is luck driven and they are wrong for the most part. Luck has nothing to do with positioning yourself for success through studying probabilities. Believe it or not, there are some quarterbacks that still have low ownership that have very easy playoff schedules and you should adding them this week. 

Dak Prescott

We can make fun of the Cowboys all that we want, but they have won their last two games and are staying competitive in the NFC East. In fact, they are only one game behind the first place Washington Redskins. Coming into this season, Prescott was without his previous main weapons in Jason Witten and Dez Bryant. Things now look a little bit brighter with the addition of Amari Cooper. At this point, Cooper isn’t paying off from a fantasy standpoint, but you can tell by watching that the opportunity for success is there. 

Even if Prescott and Cooper don’t completely click this season, that doesn’t mean Prescott can’t be very successful in weeks 14-16. Prescott hasn’t scored less than 14 points in each of past 5 games and has gone over 20 points three times in that span. In week 14, the Cowboys are at home against the beat up Eagles secondary. That game is followed up by a match up against the Colts and then the Buccaneers who ranked 23rd and 28th respectively against passing yards on a per game basis. Prescott is 48% owned in Yahoo leagues and only 45% owned on ESPN.

Mitch Trubisky

This is not somebody that you are going to find on the waiver wire in most cases so I guess that I am only writing to a select few with this one. You can feel comfortable with rolling out Trubisky throughout the playoffs. Trubisky leads all quarterbacks in the NFL in rushing yards and that includes Cam Newton. Rushing yards are a great way to get cheap points. Coming into Week 11, Trubisky averaged 20.2 fantasy points per game with his only real struggle coming against the Buffalo Bills who are the cream of the crop against quarterbacks in 2018. Trubisky isn’t without his faults. He will turn the ball over as he did against Minnesota, but he seems to have a pretty high floor.

In week 14, the Bears face off against the Rams, who don’t necessarily struggle against the pass, but that game is in Chicago. In week 15, Chicago is home once again against the Packers. The first time Trubisky played against the Packers, it didn’t go very well. But, in the weeks since, the Packers have given up multiple touchdown passes to Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford and C.J. Beathard. The Packers give up the 5th least amount of yards through the air on a per game basis but there are a couple of different factors here that land in Trubisky’s favor. This game is at home, the Packer’s secondary is not healthy, and by the time this game rolls around, there is a very good chance that the Packer’s season could be over. If you are able to make it to the fantasy football championship game in your league, the Bears travel to San Francisco in week 16. The 49ers rank tied for 25th in touchdown passes given up and only have two interceptions on the season.

Andy Dalton

Andy Dalton has slipped under 50% ownership in ESPN leagues and he has a favorable playoffs schedule for streaming purposes. By the time the fantasy playoffs roll around, Andy Dalton should have A.J. Green back at 100% and that should also open things up for Tyler Boyd as well. You may want to find a different option when the Bengals visit that chargers in week 14. The Chargers have Joey Bosa back and weren’t giving up many touchdowns through the air even before he returned. 

In Weeks 15 and 16, the Bengals match up against the Oakland Raiders and the Cleveland Browns who 31st and 10th respectively in passing touchdowns given up. But, Cleveland gives up 288 yards per game through the air. These are decent match ups if you are in a pinch. The majority of you reading this probably can do better, but you can chalk this up to an emergency option if your other choice is Joe Flacco or worse.

Avoiding

Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick

Like I said in yesterday’s post, I don’t want anything to do with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ quarterback situation. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers of the first 3 games of the season are a thing of the past. This team is very prone to turnovers and their red zone efficiency has been absolutely atrocious. In week 14, Tampa Bay plays against the Ravens that rank 2nd in passing yards given up per game. The Ravens have also only given up 14 touchdowns through the air all season. In week 15, the Buccaneers play the much-improved Saints defense and that is followed by a match up against the Cowboys who have been able to hold the Eagles and Falcons in check in back to back weeks. 

Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford always looks like a value coming into any fantasy football season. Now, the situation isn’t great in Detroit in the passing game. A couple of weeks ago, Golden Tate was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles leaving Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. as Stafford’s top 2 options. Since the Lions traded Tate, Stafford hasn’t scored 20 fantasy points in a game. In fact, Stafford has only crossed the 20 point threshold two times this season.

In weeks 14 and 15, the Lions travel to Arizona and Buffalo despite not having much success from a win/loss standpoint, both teams have top 5 passing defenses. Combined, Arizona and Buffalo have given up 27 touchdowns through the air. Tampa Bay has given up 25 just by themselves. In week 16, Buffalo plays against Minnesota and the Vikings rank 6th in passing yards given up per game. 

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  1. Stupid Sexy Glanders says:
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    yep right there more proof of either
    1. very inactive owners abound that influence these ownership numbers
    or
    2. WAY more 2 QB leagues than i was aware of
    or
    3. far too many people have QB backups
    or of course some mix of them.

    if dak attack is 45-48% owned and dj moore/t-smith are

    dak is per game (i removed current non starters jimmy G, barkley (assuming), and beat it hard) the 22nd or so best QB on the year. last 4 weeks about the same 22nd or so. i did count both of fitz/winston as either could start at any time.
    agreed his schedule is good, but outside of 2 QB’s (clearly already owned in those anyway though) are you really starting him over: pretty much any top 12 guy, or any of these: RW, cousins, watson, wentz, brady (yep he’s only 18th), doubt it.
    i could see at least arguably playing him over: dalton, bortles, staff, mullens, mayfield and obviously all the guys actually worse statistically than dak (and that is about 9-10 guys more). he has very little going for him outside of schedule, an awful O-coordinator, a team that doesn’t utilize him much (zeke is that), a team who’s D is improved and thus doesn’t have tons of garbage time (say like bortles used to have for years, even though he’s awful he’d put up similar to this year’s TB numbers for fantasy QB).

    an example, wentz has a lot going against him right now, losing O-line guy(s), just looked like a complete asshole in his last game etc, but i’d probably never ever play dak over him, unless he very clearly went into a game injured or something (even then maybe not).

    noticing that brady is the QB 18 to this point of season i’m very curious to see what on average record brady’s owners end up with this year. every year you read out how well the owners of the super low ADP/WW guys who blew up did (say connor owners this year for example), and what correlation winning a league has to owning connor/others. the other side of this: brady never goes cheap (except that year he was suspended for a while), so his owners on average this year i’m pretty sure aren’t doing well at all, love to see how true this is.

    • Stupid Sexy Glanders says:
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      @Stupid Sexy Glanders: the t-smith/dj moore ownership numbers from your previous post:
      moore: 30-39
      t-smith: 13-26 (and wow that’s a pretty big range difference, so espn is quite a bit less active owners than in yahoo (OR yahoo just has far more dynasty leagues, where i’d be pretty sure t-smith is far more likely owned and should’ve been)

      and it sounds crazy to say that so far this year brady is a literally right in the middle QB #2 for 2 QB leagues but that’s exactly what he has been (18th) if you knew the results ahead of time.

      • MB

        MB says:
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        i went through my 12 team leagues that are very active (paid leagues) and I was able to find D.J. Moore in the league that I don’t own him in. 10-12 is pretty much the standard for the average player. I found Coutee in one as well. It’s tough for me to gauge because I previously owned Moore and Smith dating back to october as stashes

        • Stupid Sexy Glanders says:
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          @MB: i was able to nab t.smith nearly everywhere (i’m talking 12’s only here and not dynasties of course) a few weeks ago/month ago but then after watching some NO games and seeing his complete lack of targets i got off that boat. very odd to see a guy go from targets of
          1, 1, 0, 2, 3, 6 (here is where i bought him in most spots), 4, 3, 0, 13; not counting instances of somebody getting injured to open up extra playing time. ginn going out sealed it for me to grab him, but he didn’t get any extra usage at all after that till 2 days ago.

  2. Frank says:
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    Tom Brady ROS thoughts?

    • MB

      MB says:
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      I don’t see there being any vast improvement on his 17.6 points per game. I see him as steady and there probably isn’t a better option

  3. Water boy says:
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    Good morning MB! .5 ppr looking to make moves whether on the wire or trades for the final push!

    QB, Dak Prescott & on bench I have Deshaun Watson

    RBs: DJ, Melvin Gordon, mixon, ekeler, gio Bernard

    My WRs: Hilton, golladay, Tyler Boyd, Emmanuel Sanders, Doug Baldwin, Anthony Miller, Josh Reynolds, sterling Shepard

    TE is OJ Howard

    D/st ravens D

    As a depth move would you do any of these:

    1.) deal Sterling Shepard to get Peyton Barber?

    2.) deal Sterling Shepard to get Jordan Howard?

    3.) deal Sterling Shepard to get Crowell ?

    4.) deal Doug Baldwin to get dalvin cook?

    5.) deal Baldwin to get Chris Carson?

    Now onto the next part for waivers:

    hold onto dak or drop for one of : Stafford, mayfield, Winston, Lamar Jackson or Eli & just play matchups with Watson?

    Next I did a minor 2 for 1 deal where I got Emmanuel Sanders & this opened a roster spot so do I use that open spot on a rb; Gus Edwards, Elijah McGuire, Blount , Riddick, or do I use that open roster spot on a TE in case OJ Howard misses this week? Available are heuerman, Vance McDonald, jonnu Smith, njoku. Or wait til Howard is officially ruled out so I can put him in my IR slot? I think RB is what I need lol

    Thanks man & hope you have a fantastic thanksgiving! Have plenty of turkey!

    • MB

      MB says:
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      I actually like DeShaun Watson’s playoff schedule. I also like Dak Prescott’s. I like DeShaun Watson more than Dak Prescott for the rest of the season and in the playoffs. I don’t like Jameis Winston for the playoffs, BUT I think he has a lot of upside this week against SF. I think getting Winston for this week would be ideal if you need QB1 #1s.

      1) yes
      2) yes
      3) No
      4) Yes
      5) Yes

      It’s very likely that Howard will miss this week and I think Cameron Brate is the correct plug and play. I’m also looking to add Gus Edwards. Id Grab Gus Edwards first and wait for Howard to be ruled out and then grab Brate.

  4. Better Call Limehouse says:
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    14 team super flex dynasty. this team has been hurt all year by playing time issues (parker, dez, now dropped in dez’s case), injuries but still somehow just beat the best team in the league last week with ONE QB (all the LAR players sure helped). super flex super standard (15 rushing/receiving yards per point, making QB’s even more powerful and needed)
    QB goff, allen (thank god he’s back finally for this week hopefully, if not lock up that loss)
    RB (2) gurley, breida, coleman, hyde (value in dynasty probably), mal brown, ware
    WR (2) green, cooks, m.will, d.moore (SEA), reynolds, parker, moncrief
    TE (1) d.walker (i’m WW’ing a guy this week dropping ware)
    1 regular flex
    1 super flex
    IR (2) guice, howard (TB)
    1. a surprising amount of RB’s out there this week, guessing this is best order (dropping mal brown for him here, usually i want to hold gurley’s handcuff BUT these 3 esp gus the bus might have good enough value to add)
    : gus the bus, mcguire, gore
    2. best TE order: brate, uzomah, vannett, jonnu (he’d be 3rd except mariota hurt yet again)

    clearly gus is the #1 claim and brate 2nd.

    • Better Call Limehouse says:
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      @Better Call Limehouse: also, this team has the best record with the 3rd most points, and the team i beat was actually the 4th best team (effectively tied with me) not 1st, it had the best record going into last week. i never quite (since goff anyway) have a good enough pick to get a top 3 QB in any year’s draft. allen was my last 1st rounder this year, guice 2nd round.

    • MB

      MB says:
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      Gus, Gore, McGuire
      Brate, Jonnu, Vannett, Uzomah

  5. Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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    12 team PPR. better off holding royce here or nabbing l-jax QB as backup. weekly waivers and i’m the 5th best team so i never have a good waiver. won’t get gus the bus, will try of course dropping moncrief, and moncrief is easy drop for l-jax in case i do somehow get gus. 6 pt TD throws here. royce could also be dropped for a WR but the ones out there aren’t great and i only need to start 2 of them here with good RB depth. brate also an option.
    QB wentz
    RB (2) coleman, barkley, chubb, barber, richard, royce
    WR (2) k.allen, jeffery, shepard, kirk, moncreif
    TE (1) doyle
    1 flex
    IR (1)
    kicker streamer (butker on bye now)
    DEF (1) DEN (for playoff weeks) ARI (attempting DAL or IND)

    • Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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      @Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey:
      assuming i don’t get gus for dropping moncrief options to drop moncrief/royce for:
      QB: l-jax
      TE: brate
      WR: humphries

      so it’s really about royce holding or not for these guys, moncrief sounds easy drop, JAX just lost an O-Line guy and with fournette back they’ll go back to bortles not throwing any more.

  6. Bart pagel says:
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    If Green comes back,, what three do you start, having also Golladay, Edelman, Landry and Ridley.?

    Thanks for your help.

    • MB

      MB says:
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      Green, Golladay, Edelman

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