In my regular Monday post, I paid extra attention to some wide receiver adds that will be beneficial for weeks 14-16. There are a few out there, but for the most part, the ‘start your studs’ theory is the way that I like to go about things. Quarterback is an entirely different beast. I’ve written in the past about quarterback scoring being very bunched up near the middle of the position. So it a good idea to discover weekly outliers in the most important three weeks of the fantasy football season.Â
The benefit in preparing for the playoffs around Thanksgiving is that these players that you are stashing likely wouldn’t be available in weeks 13 or 14. Staying ahead of your league-mates is half of the battle. People say fantasy football is luck driven and they are wrong for the most part. Luck has nothing to do with positioning yourself for success through studying probabilities. Believe it or not, there are some quarterbacks that still have low ownership that have very easy playoff schedules and you should adding them this week.Â
Dak Prescott
We can make fun of the Cowboys all that we want, but they have won their last two games and are staying competitive in the NFC East. In fact, they are only one game behind the first place Washington Redskins. Coming into this season, Prescott was without his previous main weapons in Jason Witten and Dez Bryant. Things now look a little bit brighter with the addition of Amari Cooper. At this point, Cooper isn’t paying off from a fantasy standpoint, but you can tell by watching that the opportunity for success is there.Â
Even if Prescott and Cooper don’t completely click this season, that doesn’t mean Prescott can’t be very successful in weeks 14-16. Prescott hasn’t scored less than 14 points in each of past 5 games and has gone over 20 points three times in that span. In week 14, the Cowboys are at home against the beat up Eagles secondary. That game is followed up by a match up against the Colts and then the Buccaneers who ranked 23rd and 28th respectively against passing yards on a per game basis. Prescott is 48% owned in Yahoo leagues and only 45% owned on ESPN.
Mitch Trubisky
This is not somebody that you are going to find on the waiver wire in most cases so I guess that I am only writing to a select few with this one. You can feel comfortable with rolling out Trubisky throughout the playoffs. Trubisky leads all quarterbacks in the NFL in rushing yards and that includes Cam Newton. Rushing yards are a great way to get cheap points. Coming into Week 11, Trubisky averaged 20.2 fantasy points per game with his only real struggle coming against the Buffalo Bills who are the cream of the crop against quarterbacks in 2018. Trubisky isn’t without his faults. He will turn the ball over as he did against Minnesota, but he seems to have a pretty high floor.
In week 14, the Bears face off against the Rams, who don’t necessarily struggle against the pass, but that game is in Chicago. In week 15, Chicago is home once again against the Packers. The first time Trubisky played against the Packers, it didn’t go very well. But, in the weeks since, the Packers have given up multiple touchdown passes to Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford and C.J. Beathard. The Packers give up the 5th least amount of yards through the air on a per game basis but there are a couple of different factors here that land in Trubisky’s favor. This game is at home, the Packer’s secondary is not healthy, and by the time this game rolls around, there is a very good chance that the Packer’s season could be over. If you are able to make it to the fantasy football championship game in your league, the Bears travel to San Francisco in week 16. The 49ers rank tied for 25th in touchdown passes given up and only have two interceptions on the season.
Andy Dalton
Andy Dalton has slipped under 50% ownership in ESPN leagues and he has a favorable playoffs schedule for streaming purposes. By the time the fantasy playoffs roll around, Andy Dalton should have A.J. Green back at 100% and that should also open things up for Tyler Boyd as well. You may want to find a different option when the Bengals visit that chargers in week 14. The Chargers have Joey Bosa back and weren’t giving up many touchdowns through the air even before he returned.Â
In Weeks 15 and 16, the Bengals match up against the Oakland Raiders and the Cleveland Browns who 31st and 10th respectively in passing touchdowns given up. But, Cleveland gives up 288 yards per game through the air. These are decent match ups if you are in a pinch. The majority of you reading this probably can do better, but you can chalk this up to an emergency option if your other choice is Joe Flacco or worse.
Avoiding
Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick
Like I said in yesterday’s post, I don’t want anything to do with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ quarterback situation. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers of the first 3 games of the season are a thing of the past. This team is very prone to turnovers and their red zone efficiency has been absolutely atrocious. In week 14, Tampa Bay plays against the Ravens that rank 2nd in passing yards given up per game. The Ravens have also only given up 14 touchdowns through the air all season. In week 15, the Buccaneers play the much-improved Saints defense and that is followed by a match up against the Cowboys who have been able to hold the Eagles and Falcons in check in back to back weeks.Â
Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford always looks like a value coming into any fantasy football season. Now, the situation isn’t great in Detroit in the passing game. A couple of weeks ago, Golden Tate was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles leaving Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. as Stafford’s top 2 options. Since the Lions traded Tate, Stafford hasn’t scored 20 fantasy points in a game. In fact, Stafford has only crossed the 20 point threshold two times this season.
In weeks 14 and 15, the Lions travel to Arizona and Buffalo despite not having much success from a win/loss standpoint, both teams have top 5 passing defenses. Combined, Arizona and Buffalo have given up 27 touchdowns through the air. Tampa Bay has given up 25 just by themselves. In week 16, Buffalo plays against Minnesota and the Vikings rank 6th in passing yards given up per game.Â
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