After another week of pre-season football, starting lineups and usage trends are beginning to emerge that will shape the success of your fantasy leagues. So today we’ll go through the biggest running back and quarterback winners and losers from the last week of the pre-season.Â
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Winners and Losers
Winners:
–Daniel Jones has won the starting quarterback role in Indy. While he’ll remain a fringe superflex option given his likely low passing numbers and low job security, there is some upside here. Jones had a QB7 fantasy finish in 2022, on the back of 700 rushing yards and some respectable passing. But the real winners here are the Colts receivers, who have more avenues to fantasy success thanks to the increase in volume they should each receive. Likewise, Jonathan Taylor benefits from the drop in goal-line sniping and the increased check-downs he should get from Jones compared to the alternatives. Conversely, Anthony Richardson is the most obvious loser and is droppable in most leagues that aren’t deeper dynasty setups.
–Brian Robinson appears headed for a trade while Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols will be receiving backs only. That opens up an opportunity for Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Chris Rodriguez. I think JCM is highly likely to win this role within a couple of weeks, but he’s still not too exciting for fantasy. Remember that I was ranking Robinson as the RB30 before this happened and Croskey-Merritt has a less secure role and arguably less talent. He’s a great deep league and dynasty add given he may be available on waivers, but I wouldn’t be drafting him before the double digit rounds of most leagues.
–Braelon Allen’s role as a change of pace back who is the primary backup for both lead runner Breece Hall and Isaiah Davis, the third down back, was confirmed. While Allen will need a Hall injury to rise into RB2 territory, he may be startable in bye-heavy weeks given how much work he is getting with the starters during the pre-season.
–Rico Dowdle remains the Carolina third down back, meaning he’s a great bench stash who has the upside to be a RB2 if Hubbard goes down, while he may also be startable during some bye weeks in PPR leagues. Another valuable backup is DJ Giddens, who appears to be the clear Colts backup. The Indy starter has long been valuable for fantasy, making the rookie a great late round bench stash in case JT goes down. And while we’re on the topic, Will Shipley looks set to be the Eagles’s backup running back. Unlike the other two though, it’s doubtful he’ll be an every down back if Saquon Barkley goes down, with AJ Dillon also in town.
Losers:
–Rhamondre Stevenson was out injured and we expected to see TreVeyon Henderson on early downs. Instead, he was restricted to passing downs, with Antonio Gibson getting the early down work. Henderson could still win the every down role later in the season, but this isn’t the usage you want from a guy being drafted inside the first half-dozen rounds. He’s a hard avoid for me, especially in half-PPR leagues.
–Joe Mixon’s injury drags on, meaning it looks increasingly likely he’ll be the starter come week one. We’ve seen these sort of things drag into a full-season absence, while we’ve also seen players suddenly re-appear and return to their normal role. The signing of Nick Chubb suggests the former, but I’m ultimately avoiding both, especially given it’s a low efficiency role with Dare Ogunbowale likely the third down back.
-The Steelers backfield remains a total mess. Kaleb Johnson will be the big banger but Jaylen Warren likely gets the most carries between the twenties early in the year. Meanwhile Kenny Gainwell will be the third down and two minute back. It’s hard to see any of the three being a top 25 back without an injury. Unlike many players who are an injury away from a role though, even with an injury to Warren or Johnson, the other would still be just a low-end RB2. And you have to draft them in the middle rounds! I’m avoiding all three Pittsburgh backs.
-The Jaguars backfield likewise remains a split between Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby. Etienne will likely continue to lead receiving work while Bigsby will be more used on early downs and around the goal line. Neither has fantasy value without an injury to the other and even then, there’s a good chance Bhayshul Tuten would get involved in that situation to maintain some form of committee.
–Tyler Shough remains behind Spencer Rattler in the Saints’ quarterback competition. Kellen Moore insists this is not a signal on his week one starter, but it’s not what you want to see if you were relying on Shough as a starter in superflex leagues. I do believe the rookie will eventually win the role, but this hurts his value badly. Meanwhile, Rattler starting is probably slightly better for fantasy for Saints receivers, though it is much of a muchness.
If you have questions on your drafts and leagues, make sure you hit me up on Instagram @TheFantasyFirstDown or on Twitter @FantasyFirstDwn. Also make sure you check out my dynasty, rookie and redraft rankings and my video analysis of all positional hit rates. And finally, if you’re looking for personalised rankings for your drafts, email me.
