As promised, I have completed my homework for this year’s upcoming auctions and am back to share the results. In part 3 of my “Points Per Dollar” series (Part 1, Part 2), I have put together my 2015 projections, converted them to fantasy points and compared each player against his current going auction value. For this data I have gathered the results of thousands of completed 2015 auctions. It’s important to note that in determining a player’s PPD you must use their going market value. Many sites, Razzball included, publish a cheatsheet of each player’s auction values. This is helpful as a guideline, but that’s all they are. Guidelines. It’s one thing for an expert to say Aaron Rodgers is worth $36, but what I really care about is the fact that he is actually going for $44 in real auctions. That’s a more indicative value as to what Rodgers will actually cost me on auction day.

Take me on in the Razzball Commenter Leagues here!

Another thing I’d like to mention is that I’ve rounded up for every player with an average auction value greater than a whole number. The logic is simple. If Julio Jones has a market value of $39.2, I round up to $40 because I’d need to bid $40 to win him. Bidding $39, I’d fall just short. And another another thing. Yes, I intended to say “another” twice. Even the values derived from completed auctions are just approximation. They should be rather accurate, but ultimately they function as a barometer for current auction cost. It might actually take $45 to win Jones, but it could also be $36. The actual price of a player can only be determined after said player has been sold in your auction. I believe that’s called hindsight. Not to be confused with one’s ability to spot an attractive rear end.

With that out of the way, let’s take a look at some noteworthy comparisons that might help you save some auction dollars on auction day. Just a quick reminder in case you didn’t read the first two posts in this series and are too stubborn to go back and do so. The right way to use this data is to compare players that are projected to score approximately the same number of points and determine which player makes the most sense to target for your team.

This post reflects a 1-point PPR league, however the attached spreadsheet (at bottom) contains values for non-PPR leagues as well.

Quarterback:

Opening Match: Ben Roethlisberger vs Drew Brees

Big Ben (Parliament) is projected to score 305 points. Drew “call me the” Brees projects to 303 points. The difference is an interception, or perhaps a fumble. So it’s a tossup, right? WRONG! Roethlisberger all the way. Why? Here’s why. His estimated cost is about $9 (33.93 PPD), while Brees (17.81 PPD) will run you $17 dollars. Is it redundant to use a dollar sign and to say dollars? For $8 dollars less, you can get the same production. Winner: Ben Roethlisberger (Big Boot and Leg Drop)

On a related note, Matt Ryan is projected to score just under 300 points (297) and is currently going for $6.

Intercontinental Championship: Aaron Rodgers vs Andrew Luck

This seems like it would be the main event of fantasy football’s version of Wrestlemania. Both are projected to score about 350 points. Luck is $5 cheaper. I’ll take my chances with Luck and use that $5 elsewhere. Winner: Andrew Luck (Pedigree)

Career vs Career Match: Tom Brady vs Tom Brady

Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, aka Tom Terrific, has a current price tag of about $7 for an anticipated total of 243 points. That’s a PPD of 34.69, which is pretty good. However… those points are for only 12 games. Across 16 games he projects over 300 points. So is he worth the $7 for just 12 games? I say yes. But you need to make sure you grab a backup for the first four games. All three of Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ryan Tannehill can be won for about $3 and are expected to get about 277 points. Over 16 games, that’s 17.3 points per game. Let’s say you roll one of them out there for the first four games and then Brady for the remainder of the season. Ignoring bye weeks, you are looking at 312 points on the season for $10. That’s a combined PPD of 31.2. Winner: Tom Brady (Camel Clutch)

Running Back:

Fatal 4-way: Adrian Peterson vs Matt Forte vs Jamaal Charles vs Eddie Lacy

Vince McMahon, if you’re reading this, I’m suing if you steal any of my ideas. Here’s how this one shakes out.
Adrian Peterson, 277 points, $56, 4.94 PPD
Matt Forte, 271 points, $47, 5.76 PPD
Jamaal Charles, 267 points, $54, 4.94 PPD
Eddie Lacy, 262 points, $55, 4.76 PPD

This is a close one as I’d be happy with any of these studs. However I’m going with Forte since he will save me about $8. Winner: Matt Forte (The People’s Elbow)

Triple Threat Match: DeMarco Murray vs Justin Forsett vs LeSean McCoy

Last season’s rushing leader, DeMarco Murray, is currently going for $47 in auctions. He is projected to score 233 points (4.95 PPD). Last season’s most expensive running back, LeSean McCoy, is going for $46 with a projection of 231 points (5.03 PPD). Underdog Justin Forsett is projected to score 235 points. He must cost about $46 too, right? Wrong. His current going value is $24 (9.79 PPD)! I realize projections are only projections, but how can you argue with saving $20? Winner: Justin Forsett (DDT)

Steel Cage Match: Andre Ellington vs Alfred Morris

With NBC threatening an Alf reboot, Morris has got to be fired up. But how are his preseason projections and auction value faring? Morris is projected to score 195 points and costs $27 (7.21 PPD). Much better than McCoy, but how about Andre “the giant” Ellington? The experts have Ellington at 188 points and $12 (15.67 PPD). Winner: Andre Ellington (Stone Cold Stunner)

Six Feet Under Match: Jonathan Stewart vs Giovani Bernard

I don’t watch the show, but I thought Jon Stewart just retired? I guess he wanted to focus on his NFL and WWE career. His 2015 projections have him at 172 points for $18 (9.6 PPD). Last year’s preseason breakout candidate, Giovani Bernard had a rather disappointing season and is now clearly in Jeremy Hill’s shadow. This year he is projected to score 172 points and cost $9 (19.13 PPD). That’s half the price of Stewart. Winner: Giovani Bernard (Figure Four)

Wide Reciever:

Tables, Ladders and Chairs Match: Jordan Matthews vs Emmanuel Sanders

At $27 Emmanuel Sanders is a reasonable bargain. His projection of 254 points (9.42 PPD) makes him an attractive auction day option. But can we do better? How about Jordan Matthews? With 240 points and a $17 price tag (14.11 PPD), Matthews looks to be the better bang for your buck in this matchup. Winner: Jordan Matthew (Sweet Chin Music)

Tag Team Championship: Julio Jones and Roddy White vs Dez Bryant and Sammy Watkins

With Matt Ryan in their corner, the team of Jones and White, which sounds like a law firm for minorities, is ready for the challenge. Julio (318 points, $40) and Roddy (207 points, $3) have a combined PPD of 12.2 (525 points, $43) and have the fans in Atlanta whooping it up. Dez Bryant is projected to score 315 points and costs $45 (7.00 PPD). As for Watkins, his projections say he will tally 210 points and run you $15. That comes to 525 points for $60 (8.75 PPD). Winner: Julio Jones and Rowdy Roddy White (Sleeper Hold, RIP Piper)

Tight End:

King of the Ring: Jimmy Graham vs Greg Olsen

For the past several seasons Jimmy Graham has been the high priced tight end. This year, at $27, he is second to Rob Gronkowski. Graham is projected to score 205 points (7.59 PPD). But is he worth $27. I say “no way”. For $9 you can get Greg Olsen and 205 points (22.86 PPD). Say what?! That’s right. It is my prediction that at least 75% of the teams that splurge for Graham in auction leagues will not win their league. You heard it here first. Winner: Greg Olsen (Top Turnbuckle Diving Elbow Drop)

Heavyweight Championship Bout: Le’Veon Bell vs Antonio Brown

First let me point out, for those of you that did not notice, that these two heavyweight contenders both hail out of Pittsburgh. This even furthers my desire to get Roethlisberger. Even though I would love to have both of these guys on my team, personally I’m not sure I am willing to spend the big bucks on either of them. There seem to be slightly cheaper top tier options. But If I had to choose one, I’d have to examine the numbers. Bell is projected to score 298 points and costs $54 (5.51 PPD). Brown is projected to score 339 points and costs $50 (6.78 PPD). Based on those numbers, the heavyweight championship belt belongs to Antonio Brown (Tombstone).

Here are some other points that I’d like to mention.

With regard to how much it is going to cost to win a stud player. The lack of a remaining supply of studs at a given position will influence the price of the remaining stud. What the heck does that mean? Let’s take the stud running backs as an example. I would include Le’Veon Bell, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy and Marshawn Lynch in the list of stud running backs. On average Charles is going for $54. But let’s say the rest of the players in this list are gone and Jamaal is the last one left. As the last available stud, it is likely his price will be driven up by the teams that missed out on the rest of the list and want to make sure they get a stud. It is quite possible that Charles will end up costing $60, sending his PPD in the wrong direction. So beware of this pitfall, and if you are dead set on winning a stud, don’t wait for the last one at position.

While comparing players of different projection levels is possible, it’s not simple. To do this, you will need to figure out if the jump in points from Player A to Player B is worth the jump in cost. In the next part of this series I will try and do just that…

Here is a spreadsheet containing my 2015 projections and PPD (Excel Spreadsheet)

 

 

You can follow malamoney on Twitter.

  1. JoeCool says:
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    Mala,

    Just out of curiosity, how did you come up with your player stat projections?

    Btw, love your articles, very thorough and well thought out.

    • JoeCool says:
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      @JoeCool:

      Also, these $ projections are based on a 12-team league correct?

      • JoeCool says:
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        @JoeCool:

        also, do you think you could add a tab combining all positions on one list? i really should think of everything i want to say and put it in one post. or razz should allow post edits.

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
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          @JoeCool: I thought I had done that. I’ll see what I can do about getting it updated. If I can’t I can email you that info…

      • malamoney

        malamoney says:
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        @JoeCool: Yes, 12-team leagues…

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @JoeCool: I am a software developer during the day. I wrote a script that created projections. I then took those projections, as well as about 7 other trusted projections and wrote another script to average them all together for each player.

      Thanks.

      • JoeCool says:
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        @malamoney:

        Very cool dude. Consider me hooked and an avid reader.

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
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          @JoeCool: Thanks. Get ready for a bumpy ride…

  2. Todd Pierce says:
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    @malamoney…have really enjoyed reading your mini-series on auction drafts and especially the PPD way of looking at things. This will be my second year of auction drafting this year and your method will be the way I’m approaching it this time. I’m having an error opening the excel spreadsheet on the site. Could you possibly email to me? Many thanks and looking forward to part 4 soon.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      We’re working on it!

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Todd Pierce: Thanks! When’s the auction? Keep me posted on the results.

      Hopefully the file link will be fixed soon…

      • Todd Pierce says:
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        @malamoney: @jay…got the speadsheet. thanks fellas

        @malamoney…so is your logic really to only draft one QB and find a replacement when it approaches his bye week? i ask because you only talk about pairing QB’s with Brady while on his suspension. Save your bench for backup RB and WR”S?

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
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          @Todd Pierce: Mostly. But… If you wanted to snag two cheap guys like Rivers and Tannehill, I could see that play. They won’t cost you much and both have similar upside.

          I love having backup RBs. Much more valuable than a backup QB. However, at some point (QB bye week), you will need to make a spot on your bench for a fill-in QB. However, if I have a great performing QB, I will run with him and not grab a fill-in until bye week, or perhaps the week before or so to ensure a good fill-in…

          • Todd Pierce says:
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            @malamoney: Totally agree on having backup RB’s so thanks for the thought on only grabbing one QB. Along the lines of RB’s, I know your posts mostly speak to PPR leagues which explains your love for Forte. I’m in a non-ppr league so wanted your take on which RB’s might be best.

            I’m budgeting about $60-$65 for RB’s so would recommend going for a stud RB1 for about $50(Forte, Anderson, Charles) and fill RB2 with about a $12 option (L.Murray, Ellington)….OR go with two more upper/mid-tier guys for $25 (Forsett and Miller) then grab a cheaper third option like (L Murray or Ellington)? Studs and Duds or Balance, I guess.

            • malamoney

              malamoney says:
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              @Todd Pierce: The spreadsheet includes non-PPR values as well.

              I always want to own one of the RB studs. In non-PPR format that would be one of Bell, Peterson, Charles, Lacy or Lynch and it’s going to cost you $55.

              With a $200 budget, I usually allot about $80 for RBs. If you can get Charles for $55, then I’d look at Forsett ($25) or perhaps Ellington ($12) and Latavius Murray ($14). There are others in the $25 range as well.

              Gotta have a stud…

              • Todd Pierce says:
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                @malamoney: Thanks for the advice. Did a couple of mocks today and the top 5 RB’s all went for about $65…ridiculous. In fact almost everything was going about $10-$15 over your projections. Hoping it’s just people being dumb in mocks and that’s not the true going rate. We shall see what happens in my real draft. Appreciate your insight and system!

  3. fingle says:
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    It looks like the link to your Excel spreadsheet isn’t working. Am I doing something wrong?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      No, you aren’t. We’re working on it!

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @fingle: Nah. Give us a few and hopefully it will be fixed soon. Thanks.

    • ROTO OVERLORD says:
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      @fingle: Its working just fine! ***scrolls to kate upton pics***

  4. eltoo says:
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    Is the link broken again? Looks like people were able to access the sheet, but I can’t seem to get it to work. Could just be me….

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @eltoo: Still seems to be broken. Unfortunately I have no control over the link. If it’s not fixed soon, I will provide a link to my google drive. Sorry…

      • eltoo says:
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        @malamoney: working for me now. great tool, will definitely use it in my draft this week.

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
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          @eltoo: Cool!

  5. Robert says:
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    Better rb backup: Johnson (clev) or Johnson (ariz)?

    • malamoney

      malamud says:
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      @Robert: Sorry, had to. Leaning towards Duke. I’m counting on Ellington to stay healthy and to be a beast this year…

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Robert: With Duke going down with a concussion, I think I’d have to change my answer. There are also rumors of a Ray Rice signing in Cleveland…

  6. Mike says:
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    Just had 10 team standard espn draft
    Qb. Rodgers. Bradford
    RB. Forsett. Ivory. Abdullah. R Matthews. Hillman
    WR. Dez, j Matthews, Charles Johnson . Allen Robinson , Terrence Williams
    TE. Kyle Rudolph
    Dst. Jets. Eagles
    K. Bailey
    Wanted your thoughts
    Thx!

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Mike: Only thing missing is a true RB stud. I like Forsett and Ivory, but with there was a stud in front of them. I like Abdullah too. Great pick with Rudolph. He’s gonna be good this year. Looks good overall…

  7. Dom says:
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    Also is my team good or should I try to trade and who should be in my general starting lineup

    QB Tony Romo
    RB Leveon Bell
    RB Jonathan Stewart
    WR Julio Jones
    WR AJ Green
    TE Jason Witten
    Flex Latavius Murray
    K STEVE HAUSCHKA
    DEF RAVENS

    Bench
    QB ELI MANNING
    WR KEENAN ALLEN
    RB GIO BERNARD
    RB LEGARRETTE BLOUNT
    WR MARQUES COLSTON
    WR STEVE SMITH SR

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Dom: Team is good. Hopefully either Romo or Manning will have a good fantasy season…

  8. Comatose says:
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    I’m in a snake draft in a league that gives a point for every 25 punt return yards. Any thoughts on how to adjust my draft strategy, if at all?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Comatose: I’d have to look at the regular punt returners and then I’d give some of those guys an extra edge when deciding between that player and another…

  9. Mike says:
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    10 team standard
    I just finished espn draft
    I have Rodgers and Bradford at QB
    But weak at rb..forsett ivory Abdullah, hillman, ryan Matthews
    Would u take a shot and try to trade Rodgers to a team stuck with Cam or Eli and try to get a top 20 pick from them?
    A risk but If Bradford stays healthy I can win the league
    Thoughts?
    Thx

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Mike: Who’s a top 20 pick?

  10. KVC

    Cleaver says:
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    Qb – Bradford, Carr
    RB- lynch, Gordon, Stewart, foster, Sankey, deangelo
    WR- Cobb, Jeffrey, Landry, wheaton, John Brown, Crabtree
    Te- olson

    12 team, standard scoring, nonppr

    1 qb, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 te, def, k

    How’s it look? And who do I drop for a kicker and def?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Cleaver: Carr, Wheaton, Crabtree…

  11. pickleball says:
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    keeper league, would you send:
    Matt ryan/ $30 alshon jeffery/ $30 justin forsett
    for
    $12 arian foster/ $60 demerius thomas/ $5 big ben?

    thanks

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @pickleball: Depends on your other RBs…

      • pickleball says:
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        @malamoney: other rb’s are frank gore/ alfred morris/ fred jackson/ cameron artis payne

        12 team league

        thank you i’ve found your posts to be very informative

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
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          @pickleball: Sorry, I should have asked who your other WR are too. It’s a close one. I definitely like Big Ben over Ryan, and Thomas over Jeffery. This would be a no brainer if we knew more about Foster’s return. Foster has proven to be a perennial injury risk, but he seems to continue to get back out there. I think I’d make that deal…

          • pickleball says:
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            @malamoney: dez bryant and brandon marshall are my other notable wr’s…. so it’d be like this

            ben roethlesburger
            alfred morris
            frank gore
            dez
            demerius
            bennet
            brandon marshall

            then foster/artis payne / martavis bryant/ pierre garcon on the bench. no real RB depth but i feel like if i latch on to one via faab or trade for a lesser guy its worth the deal

  12. whattodo says:
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    out of justin forsett/ alfred morris/ frank gore who should i be looking to trade away first? feel like i’m sittingon a bomb with all 3 of these guys

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @whattodo: The order you mentioned them is the order I have them ranked. So I’d trade Gore first. But it really depends on what kind of deal I could make with any of them. Just because you value a player more than another, doesn’t mean another owner in your league feels the same…

  13. yg says:
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    How do like this team 12 Team ppr keeper league. if you had to drop two who would they be
    QB Kapernick
    Rb Lynch
    Rb Latvius Murray
    Wr Cooks
    Wr Andre Johnson
    Wr Watkins
    Flex Marvin Jones
    Te Ertz
    Bench Gurley, Rashad Jennings, Tyrod Taylor, Richard Rodgers, Hurns,brandon Coleman, David Cobb, Javorius Allen

  14. Jerry says:
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    Hey, Malamoney! I’m in a 12 team ppr league and am allowed to keep either Mike Evans or Jermey Hill. I also have the fifth pick. Who should I keep? Thanks!

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Jerry: Based on my rankings (upcoming post some time this week), I’d go with Jeremy Hill. I’ve got Hill as the 11th ranked RB and Evans as the 11th ranked WR, but Hill projects slightly more value. I might be one of the few, but I am expecting more out of Giovani Bernard this season, so I wonder how that will effect Hill…

  15. Mike says:
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    Murray.miller.or forte
    Keep Bradford and trade Rodgers?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Mike: What format? PPR or standard? Doesn’t really matter. I’m taking Forte in both.

      As for part two, that’s a pretty broad question. What does the rest of your team look like and how does trading Rodgers make it better (fill holes)?

  16. Jerry says:
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    Thanks! Yeah, I’m wondering that too. Plus, Cincy has a brutal schedule this year. That could effect Hill’s value as well.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Jerry: It’s certainly possible…

  17. Derrick says:
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    Thoughts on this team? 12 team. .8 PPR.

    QB – Matt Ryan, Bridgewater
    RB – J. Hill, L. Bell, Lat. Murray, Woodhead, D. Robinson
    WR – J. Jones, S. Smith, M. Bryant, Coltston, Hurns, Garçon
    TE – Graham
    Def – Lions

    During this draft I traded Gurley and a 4th for AJ Green and a 10th. Then I traded Green and Gronk for Bell and Graham. Crazy draft.

    Also, Murray and Hill were my keepers.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Derrick: Good team. Still trying to process all of the draft day trades. I like Matt Ryan and that value he offers. After Julio Jones you are a little weak at WR. Hopefully you will get a lot of Ryan to Jones TDs!

  18. Chris says:
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    Auction league 16 team keeper league $200 cap, can keep two, add $5 each year – Alshon Jeffery at $21 this year, Carlos Hyde at $13, Jordan Matthews at $9.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Chris: Matthews and Hyde. I am going Matthews over Jeffery because he is $12 cheaper and offers a much greater value (PPD). The only reason I considered Jeffery is because his current going value is about $32, but I’d rather same the money and take Matthews and spend the savings elsewhere…

  19. Nick says:
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    Giddy up 2015-2016 FF season! Back for more great advice & recommendations on weekly starters from the great Malamoney…keep up the great work around here!

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Nick: What’s up Nick. Thanks! Looking forward to a good season…

  20. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    12 teamer,we only start 2 wr ,2 rb and a flex,qb,te def
    Eli
    lynch
    melvin gordon
    a.j green
    brandon marshal
    kelce
    yeldon
    bengals

    reserves
    abdullah
    victor cruz
    phillip rivers
    terrance williams
    helu
    wheaton
    i no im counting on a few rookie runners but whats your take on the team and specifically my wr,s,,
    thanks,great work by all you guys here

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @AL KOHOLIC: Nice team…

  21. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    do you like any of these adds,Giovani-reggie bush or david cobb

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @AL KOHOLIC: I’m taking Giovani Bernard over Helu for sure…

      • AL KOHOLIC says:
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        @malamoney: thought so thanks

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
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          @AL KOHOLIC: No problem…

  22. Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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    that’s odd, luck’s ADP is higher, yet he’s 5 cheaper in auctions!

  23. pickleball says:
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    team: matt ryan/ alfred morris/ justin forsett/ frank gore/ dez/ alshon/ marshall/ bennet/ m. bryant and some other scrubs

    deal 1; alfred morris/brandon marshall for leveon/deangelo
    deal 2: frank gore/alshon jeffery for leveon/deangelo

    would you do 1, both, and which one first?
    thanks.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @pickleball: I don’t really want DeAngelo at all…

  24. Him Tardaway says:
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    Thanks for the research and the article. I appreciate the well thought out logical approach and will be incorporating some of your info into my draft list.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Him Tardaway: Thanks. Good luck…

Comments are closed.