As promised, I have completed my homework for this year’s upcoming auctions and am back to share the results. In part 3 of my “Points Per Dollar” series (Part 1, Part 2), I have put together my 2015 projections, converted them to fantasy points and compared each player against his current going auction value. For this data I have gathered the results of thousands of completed 2015 auctions. It’s important to note that in determining a player’s PPD you must use their going market value. Many sites, Razzball included, publish a cheatsheet of each player’s auction values. This is helpful as a guideline, but that’s all they are. Guidelines. It’s one thing for an expert to say Aaron Rodgers is worth $36, but what I really care about is the fact that he is actually going for $44 in real auctions. That’s a more indicative value as to what Rodgers will actually cost me on auction day.
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Another thing I’d like to mention is that I’ve rounded up for every player with an average auction value greater than a whole number. The logic is simple. If Julio Jones has a market value of $39.2, I round up to $40 because I’d need to bid $40 to win him. Bidding $39, I’d fall just short. And another another thing. Yes, I intended to say “another” twice. Even the values derived from completed auctions are just approximation. They should be rather accurate, but ultimately they function as a barometer for current auction cost. It might actually take $45 to win Jones, but it could also be $36. The actual price of a player can only be determined after said player has been sold in your auction. I believe that’s called hindsight. Not to be confused with one’s ability to spot an attractive rear end.
With that out of the way, let’s take a look at some noteworthy comparisons that might help you save some auction dollars on auction day. Just a quick reminder in case you didn’t read the first two posts in this series and are too stubborn to go back and do so. The right way to use this data is to compare players that are projected to score approximately the same number of points and determine which player makes the most sense to target for your team.
This post reflects a 1-point PPR league, however the attached spreadsheet (at bottom) contains values for non-PPR leagues as well.
Big Ben (Parliament) is projected to score 305 points. Drew “call me the” Brees projects to 303 points. The difference is an interception, or perhaps a fumble. So it’s a tossup, right? WRONG! Roethlisberger all the way. Why? Here’s why. His estimated cost is about $9 (33.93 PPD), while Brees (17.81 PPD) will run you $17 dollars. Is it redundant to use a dollar sign and to say dollars? For $8 dollars less, you can get the same production. Winner: Ben Roethlisberger (Big Boot and Leg Drop)
On a related note, Matt Ryan is projected to score just under 300 points (297) and is currently going for $6.
This seems like it would be the main event of fantasy football’s version of Wrestlemania. Both are projected to score about 350 points. Luck is $5 cheaper. I’ll take my chances with Luck and use that $5 elsewhere. Winner: Andrew Luck (Pedigree)
Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, aka Tom Terrific, has a current price tag of about $7 for an anticipated total of 243 points. That’s a PPD of 34.69, which is pretty good. However… those points are for only 12 games. Across 16 games he projects over 300 points. So is he worth the $7 for just 12 games? I say yes. But you need to make sure you grab a backup for the first four games. All three of Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ryan Tannehill can be won for about $3 and are expected to get about 277 points. Over 16 games, that’s 17.3 points per game. Let’s say you roll one of them out there for the first four games and then Brady for the remainder of the season. Ignoring bye weeks, you are looking at 312 points on the season for $10. That’s a combined PPD of 31.2. Winner: Tom Brady (Camel Clutch)
Vince McMahon, if you’re reading this, I’m suing if you steal any of my ideas. Here’s how this one shakes out.
Adrian Peterson, 277 points, $56, 4.94 PPD
Matt Forte, 271 points, $47, 5.76 PPD
Jamaal Charles, 267 points, $54, 4.94 PPD
Eddie Lacy, 262 points, $55, 4.76 PPD
Last season’s rushing leader, DeMarco Murray, is currently going for $47 in auctions. He is projected to score 233 points (4.95 PPD). Last season’s most expensive running back, LeSean McCoy, is going for $46 with a projection of 231 points (5.03 PPD). Underdog Justin Forsett is projected to score 235 points. He must cost about $46 too, right? Wrong. His current going value is $24 (9.79 PPD)! I realize projections are only projections, but how can you argue with saving $20? Winner: Justin Forsett (DDT)
With NBC threatening an Alf reboot, Morris has got to be fired up. But how are his preseason projections and auction value faring? Morris is projected to score 195 points and costs $27 (7.21 PPD). Much better than McCoy, but how about Andre “the giant” Ellington? The experts have Ellington at 188 points and $12 (15.67 PPD). Winner: Andre Ellington (Stone Cold Stunner)
I don’t watch the show, but I thought Jon Stewart just retired? I guess he wanted to focus on his NFL and WWE career. His 2015 projections have him at 172 points for $18 (9.6 PPD). Last year’s preseason breakout candidate, Giovani Bernard had a rather disappointing season and is now clearly in Jeremy Hill’s shadow. This year he is projected to score 172 points and cost $9 (19.13 PPD). That’s half the price of Stewart. Winner: Giovani Bernard (Figure Four)
At $27 Emmanuel Sanders is a reasonable bargain. His projection of 254 points (9.42 PPD) makes him an attractive auction day option. But can we do better? How about Jordan Matthews? With 240 points and a $17 price tag (14.11 PPD), Matthews looks to be the better bang for your buck in this matchup. Winner: Jordan Matthew (Sweet Chin Music)
With Matt Ryan in their corner, the team of Jones and White, which sounds like a law firm for minorities, is ready for the challenge. Julio (318 points, $40) and Roddy (207 points, $3) have a combined PPD of 12.2 (525 points, $43) and have the fans in Atlanta whooping it up. Dez Bryant is projected to score 315 points and costs $45 (7.00 PPD). As for Watkins, his projections say he will tally 210 points and run you $15. That comes to 525 points for $60 (8.75 PPD). Winner: Julio Jones and Rowdy Roddy White (Sleeper Hold, RIP Piper)
For the past several seasons Jimmy Graham has been the high priced tight end. This year, at $27, he is second to Rob Gronkowski. Graham is projected to score 205 points (7.59 PPD). But is he worth $27. I say “no way”. For $9 you can get Greg Olsen and 205 points (22.86 PPD). Say what?! That’s right. It is my prediction that at least 75% of the teams that splurge for Graham in auction leagues will not win their league. You heard it here first. Winner: Greg Olsen (Top Turnbuckle Diving Elbow Drop)
First let me point out, for those of you that did not notice, that these two heavyweight contenders both hail out of Pittsburgh. This even furthers my desire to get Roethlisberger. Even though I would love to have both of these guys on my team, personally I’m not sure I am willing to spend the big bucks on either of them. There seem to be slightly cheaper top tier options. But If I had to choose one, I’d have to examine the numbers. Bell is projected to score 298 points and costs $54 (5.51 PPD). Brown is projected to score 339 points and costs $50 (6.78 PPD). Based on those numbers, the heavyweight championship belt belongs to Antonio Brown (Tombstone).
Here are some other points that I’d like to mention.
With regard to how much it is going to cost to win a stud player. The lack of a remaining supply of studs at a given position will influence the price of the remaining stud. What the heck does that mean? Let’s take the stud running backs as an example. I would include Le’Veon Bell, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy and Marshawn Lynch in the list of stud running backs. On average Charles is going for $54. But let’s say the rest of the players in this list are gone and Jamaal is the last one left. As the last available stud, it is likely his price will be driven up by the teams that missed out on the rest of the list and want to make sure they get a stud. It is quite possible that Charles will end up costing $60, sending his PPD in the wrong direction. So beware of this pitfall, and if you are dead set on winning a stud, don’t wait for the last one at position.
While comparing players of different projection levels is possible, it’s not simple. To do this, you will need to figure out if the jump in points from Player A to Player B is worth the jump in cost. In the next part of this series I will try and do just that…
Here is a spreadsheet containing my 2015 projections and PPD (Excel Spreadsheet)
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