Chris Godwin was the industry sweetheart coming into the 2019 season. He was on approximately 99% of the industries undervalued/sleeper lists for his utilization in Bruce Arians “Big Slot” role. His draft day price rose to a 4/5th round regular by opening week. Normally, when that much value is sucked out of a rising draft stock it is arguably better to simply avoid for the price. Luckily, I remained neutral, because after 5 weeks it is evident that Chris Godwin is an elite wide receiver in this role. He is the current WR1 in both standard and PPR formats. He is top 12 in targets and 8th in Air Yards. As noted last week the vital component of this passing game for fantasy value is they push the ball downfield, increasing the value of a target, and compress the target share between two elite players. Godwin is an extremely talented player in terms of metrics and is in the perfect spot to continue to provide WR1 value for the rest of the season.

Risers

Tyreek Hill – This ranking is based on Hill’s expected return to the lineup in Week 6. Hill was the WR1 in standard and half point formats last season. We know he can win your matchup on his own every week, but with the Chiefs current offensive line situation he may have a higher floor this year than in 2018. Expect the Chiefs to start mixing in plays near the line of scrimmage to get the ball out of Patrick Mahomes hand quicker. Hill could be the primary beneficiary of any scheme change that allows him to touch the ball more.

Austin Ekeler – My ranking of Ekeler last week was based on the probability that the Chargers gave him less snaps. The Chargers stated prior to last week’s contest that they were going to slowly work Melvin Gordon into the lineup, but it sure didn’t seem that way as he received the games first 5 touches. It didn’t affect Ekeler’s overall workload at all. They simply moved him to a hybrid RB/WR and played him 65% of snaps. A rash of injuries have hampered the Chargers on both sides of the ball which is allowing Ekeler to maintain a similar average touch count as prior to Gordon’s return.  

D.J. Chark – I had doubts that Chark could maintain productivity after only averaging 6.5 targets per game in the first 4 weeks. Then, Gardner Minshew decided to pepper him with 11 targets to propel him to a tie for the team lead. It is time to stop ignoring D.J. He is 6th in the NFL in air yards. He can rise up these rankings quickly.

Fallers

Davante Adams – This drop is solely based on injury. Immediately after Adams injured his toe in week 4 news broke that it was not significant. Then, after a 10-day layoff Adams was announced out in a big game against the Cowboys. This gives me the indication that it is more serious than the Packers originally led on. This is looking like a multi-week injury with the potential to linger for the entire season.

Joe Mixon – Mixon again only played 63% of snaps in week 5. He is behind a terrible offensive line. The team will constantly be trailing. He could beat the odds, but there isn’t much of a difference between he and Carlos Hyde right now to put some perspective on the situation. Touch count in weeks 2-6: Mixon – 70, Hyde – 67. Hyde is on a much better team.

Stefon Diggs – It looks like the Vikings have no interest in using their best offensive weapon. He has 23 targets on the season. That isn’t in the top 50 in football among WRs. He and Corey Davis are stuck in the same anti-success environment.

These rankings are without QBs and based on half PPR setting in a standard 1 QB/2 RB/2-3 WR/1 Flex league:

Rank Name Previous Rank
1 Christian McCaffrey 1
2 Ezekiel Elliott 2
3 Dalvin Cook 4
4 Alvin Kamara 3
5 Saquon Barkley 36
6 DeAndre Hopkins 6
7 Julio Jones 7
8 Le’Veon Bell 5
9 Michael Thomas 18
10 Chris Godwin 17
11 Keenan Allen 8
12 Tyreek Hill 21
13 Todd Gurley 13
14 Leonard Fournette 15
15 Nick Chubb 11
16 David Johnson 10
17 Mike Evans 9
18 Chris Carson 16
19 Odell Beckham Jr 12
20 James Conner 25
21 Cooper Kupp 24
22 Amari Cooper 23
23 Travis Kelce 19
24 Derrick Henry 22
25 Aaron Jones 29
26 Kerryon Johnson 20
27 Marlon Mack 28
28 Davante Adams 14
29 Josh Jacobs 37
30 Tyler Lockett 26
31 Melvin Gordon 27
32 George Kittle 35
33 Tyler Boyd 38
34 Robert Woods 30
35 Josh Gordon 31
36 Mark Ingram 39
37 Zach Ertz 34
38 Austin Ekeler 53
39 TY Hilton 32
40 Phillip Lindsay 41
41 Adam Thielen 45
42 Joe Mixon 33
43 Marquise Brown 40
44 Kenny Golladay 44
45 Allen Robinson 54
46 Sony Michel 65
47 Julian Edelman 47
48 Larry Fitzgerald 52
49 Jordan Howard 56
50 Matt Breida 64
51 Tevin Coleman 66
52 David Montgomery 55
53 Damien Williams 69
54 Devonta Freeman 50
55 D.J. Chark NR
56 Juju Smith-Schuster 51
57 D.J. Moore 60
58 Darren Waller 49
59 Evan Engram 42
60 James White 59
61 Brandin Cooks 46
62 Alshon Jeffery 61
63 Sammy Watkins 43
64 Robby Anderson 62
65 Stefon Diggs 48
66 Carlos Hyde 76
67 LeSean McCoy 58
68 Will Fuller NR
69 Michael Gallup NR
70 Mark Andrews 74
71 Austin Hooper NR
72 Courtland Sutton NR
73 Calvin Ridley 73
74 John Brown 63
75 Royce Freeman 75
76 Marquez Valdes-Scantling 68
77 Terry McLaurin 72
78 Ronald Jones 70
79 Kenyan Drake 78
80 Emmanuel Sanders NR

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  1. patdaddy1985 says:
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    So if i needed RB more, you could see trading Godwin for Bell? My other starting receivers would be Bell and Allen

    • patdaddy1985 says:
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      I mean Odell and Allen. Whoops

      • Pat

        Pat says:
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        I would have no problem making that move if you are in need of an RB. In my article tomorrow I’m actually going to write up the Jets schedule and generally but take a glance at it from weeks 8-16. It might be the easiest in NFL history.

  2. Mike says:
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    I’m in a 1 QB league, half PPR, with a glut of QBs (Brady, Watson, Wilson). Would you trade Brady for Marlon Mack straight up?

    • Pat

      Pat says:
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      In a heartbeat.

  3. Kingslayer says:
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    Got offered OBJ for Josh Jacobs straight up. In a vaccum, should I do it?

    • Pat

      Pat says:
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      In a vaccum no. Odell is playing at his floor and his ceiling is higher.

  4. revengetour says:
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    I Have Kamara, Gurley, Henry, and Mixon just fell on my lap for virtually nothing.

    I want to flip Mixon or Henry for a top tier WR, who do I hold? Mixon has not been great, but im not sold on that Titans Offence either

    • Pat

      Pat says:
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      I’d hold Henry. Titans offense hasn’t been good but got Lewan back. Better offensive line and Vrabel will just keep running it. Mixon could certainly bounce back it isn’t out of the range of possibilities as he beat these odds last year but the difference is last year his snap count was spiking into the 75-85% range. This year he can’t crack 65%.

  5. Donkey Teeth

    Donkey Teeth says:
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    Great work on this, Pat!

    Players I’d have a bit lower:
    Josh Gordon—as an owner, 35 seems a little bonkers but hope you’re right
    Gurley—even before the injury news I prob wouldn’t have him in my top 20
    OBJ—think he’s a good buy low but I’d have him about 10 spots lower

    Players I’d have a bit higher:
    Chubb—he’s in my top 5…even with the Browns sucking he’s still producing elite fantasy stats
    Aaron Jones—solidly in my top 10 RBs and boarding on top 10 overall for me
    Tyrell Williams and Will Dissly—they’d both sneak into my top 80 but just splitting hairs…

    • Pat

      Pat says:
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      Appreciate the feedback DT. The banter always helps.

      Josh Gordon – I’m intrigued as to what happens now that the Pats schedule has competitive teams on it. I believe Gordon will become significantly more involved.
      Gurley – Fairly certain that I’m the highest of anyone on Gurley rest of season. The injury somewhat concerns me but I think he plays. In my mind I can’t get over the fact that if I knew preseason that Gurley would play 75% of offensive snaps through week 5 he would’ve been a top 8 pick easily. Don’t think much else has changed. Offensive is in top 5 in scoring. O line is 8th in adjusted line yards. Definitely hanging neck out there on this one with the knee/now quad.
      OBJ – My brain just can’t compute a scenario in which he succeeded with Eli and fails now. It’s happening I just can’t close my eyes and see it continuing even with Kitchens idiocy

      Chubb – Completely fair to have in top 5. On the note of Kitchens idiocy I am fearful he inserts Hunt a ton to play around when he comes off suspension. For some reason he is not throwing the ball to Chubb enough either.
      Aaron Jones – If Jones plays the same amount of snaps as last week in J. Williams return he will vault up the board.
      Dissley/Williams – Right on the cusp

      • Donkey Teeth

        Donkey Teeth says:
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        Right on. Seems like Gurley’s the one we disagree on most.

        Been concerned about injury and level of usage since day one…I want someone I can trust to be there when the fantasy playoffs come around.

  6. steve stevenson says:
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    Who do you like as a dart throw TE this week–OJ Howard, Fant or one of the Texans (probably Fells)?

    • Pat

      Pat says:
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      I’ll go Fant but we are grasping here.

  7. William Hung says:
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    I flipped Juju for Mike Evans – hope your rankings work out!

    • Pat

      Pat says:
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      Good deal.

  8. Lachy says:
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    Someone has dropped Cristian Kirk in my league… Burn No 1 waiver on him?

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