Rest Of Season 80: The Arians Effect

I’ll be honest… I haven’t paid much attention to rest of season rankings in my fantasy football playing time. So when MB asked me to rank the top 80 flex players the rest of the way it was a new adventure for me. Often times when you do something new it brings an entirely new perspective to the entire process. With that in mind when I finished my list the first thing I did was check to compare to the industry. The differences I found most significant are listed below and I will continue to call those major differences out with an explanation and blurb on a weekly basis. Hopefully you find these rest of season rankings useful and it can stir up some discussion. These rankings are without QBs and based on half PPR setting in a standard 1 QB/2 RB/2-3 WR/1 Flex league. The rankings shouldn’t necessarily be used for a trade value chart, they are a combination of past success and current situation to quantify a future value in my eyes. Use that mindset and apply that value to your team’s current context in terms of league standings and roster construction before making any transactions.

Le’Veon Bell #5 – Bell is on the field for 95% of the snaps in an offense that will be getting back a competent quarterback. He is past the bye week. The schedule is tough for the next month then gets incredibly light on the back half. He will catch 80 passes and fall into the end zone on accident 8 times minimum with that snap percentage. In today’s NFL environment that will provide elite numbers.

Mike Evans/Chris Godwin #9/#17 – My favorite component of the Bucs passing game is that it is highly concentrated, with over 50% target share between the two main components in Evans and Godwin. They are combining for 65% of the team Air Yards. The Bucs are going to keep pushing the ball in the passing game and both players are on pace for 140 targets.

Todd Gurley #13 – I’m in the minority, but Todd Gurley’s performance in week 4 was encouraging to me. Gurley only ran the ball 5 times, but the team fell into a negative game script early. Gurley played 70% of the snaps, which he has done 3 of 4 games this season. Malcolm Brown vultured 2 TDs in week 1, but since that time he has 2 red zone rushing attempts and Gurley has 9. The Rams are not running the ball well, with teams manipulating the line of scrimmage to mimic what Vic Fangio did in 2018 with the Bears. This concept is taking away the outside zone run. However, in the second half of the Browns game in week 3 it looked like Sean McVay finally took the inside gaps teams have been conceding. McVay will ultimately start taking what the defense is giving him. The Rams may have had plans to rest Gurley throughout the year for the playoffs, but they are being pushed in the division and won’t have that opportunity.

Melvin Gordon #27 – I’m very concerned Gordon has worked himself into a 50-50 split with Austin Ekeler.

Josh Gordon #31 – The combination of Antonio Brown getting released and the rest of seasons schedule for the Patriots makes me believe Gordon has 100 highly quality targets coming to him in the last 12 weeks of 2019.

Joe Mixon #33 – The Bengals overall aren’t as bad as an 0-4 record, but this offensive line is one of the worst in football. Mixon is only playing 60-70% of the snaps, and they aren’t throwing him the ball when they are down. This is a very bad situation.

Marquise Brown #40 – I detailed my love for Brown last week here. His 7 targets against the Browns did nothing to quell that.

Phillip Lindsay #41 – We are approaching a point with running backs in fantasy football that teams who utilize less than three running backs and are committed to providing touches to those backs are handing us value. Lindsay falls into that category and has broken tackles at a nearly 20% clip this season.

Jordan Howard #56 – Miles Sanders is dancing through holes on a weekly basis and Howard looks to be taking the job over. Don’t forget that the Eagles handed Jay Ajayi 15+ carries in 2 of the weeks prior to him tearing his ACL in 2018. I’m not sure this will cut into Sanders snap share tremendously, but I see Darren Sproles being phased out. The Eagles have an elite offensive line, and just being the goal line back on a team likely to make the playoffs and score frequently can provide value.